Tully Runners - Girls Team Ranking Page for 2001

Girls Rankings:
  Individual 2001 XC

  Team 2001 XC

Boys Rankings:
  Individual 2001 XC
  Team 2001 XC

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November 4, 2001 ... Here are the pre-race projections & Actual Results for the 2001 Sectionals  

The projected scores shown below are the results of various computer simulations ... I ran thousands of individual race simulations for each Class and combined the results to get a final score. Since the race simulations output probabilities, I converted the probabilities to point scores based upon individual runner placement.

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate the "most likely" outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of how good a team is. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on October 30, 2001.


 Girls ... Class A ... CNS slight choice over FM, WG & Liverpool

                    Predicted                       Actual
    School            Score      School              Score
    ================  =====      =================== =====
1   CNS                  56      CNS                    47
2   FM                   64      FM                     72
3   West Genesee         75      West Genesee           86
4   Liverpool            79      Liverpool              94
5   Baldwinsville       128      Baldwinsville         127
6   Whitesboro          177      Whitesboro            157
7   Proctor             177      Proctor               184
8   Oswego              230      Central Square        226
9   Auburn              238      Oswego                241
10  Central Square      274      Auburn                259
11  Rome                296      Rome                  261
12  Corcoran            354      Corcoran              331
13  Watertown           368      Watertown             390
14  ESM                 376      ESM                   407
15  Nottingham          447      Nottingham            425
Post-Race Comments ... The margin of victory for CNS was a little larger than predicted, but that's because CNS ran a real good race ... FM, West Genesee and Liverpool performed well ... but this season belongs to CNS and some very good team runners. 


Pre-Race Team Analysis ... This may be the best team match-up of the day ... Four teams have probabilities of winning ... Based on speed ratings and computer simulations, CNS is the slight favorite over FM, West Genesee and Liverpool ... all four teams raced against each at the OHSL Meet with CNS (81 points) ahead of FM (102), Liverpool (143) and West Genesee (156) ... in 100,000 computer race simulations, CNS won roughly 60% of the races with FM winning about 30% ... and in the race simulations, West Genesee and Liverpool were close in many races ... During the season, West Genesee did very well in their dual-meet encounters with these teams.

So what does this mean? ... It means this is a close race ... CNS has been racing very well lately and deserves to be the favorite ... However, FM has also been improving and is definitely capable of winning ... West Genesee and Liverpool are longshots, but could surprise with an upset.

Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... Laurel Burdick (FM) is the clear favorite to win the race ... The top five finishers (not on the winning team) qualify for States, so knowing the winning team makes a difference is predicting the five individuals to qualify ... in addition Laurel Burdick, qualifiers from FM could include Brittany Crawford and Mackenzie Klump ... if CNS loses, Taryn Menard, Marie Parks, Laura Ewald and Caitlin Wlodarski have good chances of qualifying ... other runners with good chances of qualifying include Kerry Banazek (West Genesee), Meghan Nolan (Liverpool), Amanda Lalley (Central Sq), Kelly Owens (Baldwinsville), Kelly Murray (Whitesboro), and others.


Girls ... Class B ... Westhill
                    Predicted                       Actual
    School            Score      School              Score
    ================  =====      =================== =====
1   Westhill             48      Westhill               39
2   Phoenix              71      Phoenix                70
3   New Hartford         80      Chittenango            88
4   Chittenango          96      New Hartford           96
5   Homer               137      Homer                 130
6   Jamesville Dewitt   181      Jamesville Dewitt     185
7   Mexico              206      Oneida                193
8   Oneida              215      VVS                   210
9   VVS                 215      Fulton                240
10  Camden              259      Indian River          257
11  Cortland            289      Carthage              299
12  Carthage            311      Cortland            ..inc
                                 Mexico              ..inc
                                 Frankfort-Mohawk    ..inc
Post-Race Comments ... Westhill ran very well on the Tully course (just like they usually do) ... Chittenango ran well to be third.


Pre-Race Team Analysis ... Westhill is the choice over Phoenix and New Hartford ... but it is possible that the score could be much closer than predicted above ... Phoenix and New Hartford have shown real improvement in recent weeks and could be peaking at the right time ... However, Westhill has significant depth at the #5 position, and that is real advantage in this race ... in addition, Westhill runs well on the Tully course, so they are the definite favorite to win ... but if Westhill throws in some mediocre performances and Phoenix or New Hartford take another step up in improvement, an upset is possible.

Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... Tracey Brauksieck (Homer) is the clear choice to win the race ... Ashley Hughes (Phoenix), Katie Luker (New Hartford) and Kaitlin Rees (Oneida) are solid choices to qualify as individuals to States ... other possible qualifiers include Macrina Seals (Phoenix), Mary Cook (New Hartford), and a number of other closed rated runners (see the Girls Ranking Page).


Girls ... Class C ... Skaneateles dominates
                    Predicted                       Actual
    School            Score      School              Score
    ================  =====      =================== =====
1   Skaneateles          27      Skaneateles            27
2   South Jefferson      71      Sauquoit Valley       130
3   Sauquoit Valley     135      Clinton               153
4   Holland Patent      168      Holland Patent        162
5   Jordan-Elbridge     170      South Jefferson       162
6   Clinton             200      Cato Meridian         175
7   Cato Meridian       215      Jordan-Elbridge       176
8   APW                 238      Canastota             221
9   South Lewis         241      APW                   232
10  Adirondack          268      South Lewis           241
11  CBA                 273      Adirondack            277
12  Canastota           278      Cazenovia             306
13  Cazenovia           358      Cooperstown           315
14  Marcellus           377      CBA                   323
15  Cooperstown         384      Herkimer              325
16  Ilion               388      Ilion                 343
17  Herkimer            395      Mount Markham       ..inc
18  Mount Markham       416      Solvay              ..inc
19  Solvay              532      Hannibal            ..inc
20  Hannibal            551      Lowville            ..inc
                                 Marcellus           ..inc
Post-Race Comments ... Skaneateles won easily as expected ... the surprise in this race was South Jefferson (top runner Nichole Lister did not finish the race ... of course, this had a significant impact on the team scoring of the race) ... Clinton ran well and finished third.


Pre-Race Team Analysis ... Skaneateles is the clear choice to win this race ... they handily won the OHSL Meet against tougher team competition. South Jefferson is next best ... Sauquoit Valley has been racing very well and improving, and could do better than the predicted score above.

Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... Nicole Lister (S Jeff) is the favorite to win with Lia Cross (Skan) a close second ... Jenny Ryan (Clinton) has been running very well, and is a solid choice to qualify for States along with Melissa Lister (S Jeff) and Jessica Lister (S Jeff) ... other runners with good chances of qualifying include Carly Calogero (Sauquoit), Rosemary Foran (Canastota), Sarah Betts (JE), Carrie Gates (Mt Markham), Jessica O'Neil (Marcellus), Kayla Nimmo (JE), Jacquelyn Rappa (Clinton), Kayla Curtis (Canastota), Connie Pernisi (APW), and Erica Bourgeois (Adirondack) ... could be a good race to determine the five individual State qualifiers!


Girls ... Class D ... Beaver River over Tully ..
                    Predicted                       Actual
    School            Score      School              Score
    ================  =====      =================== =====
1   Beaver River         28      Beaver River           21
2   Tully                40      Tully                  40
3   Weedsport           107      Lafayette             130
4   Lafayette           129      Weedsport             131
5   Old Forge           166      Old Forge             141
6   Utica Notre Dame    187      Richfield Springs     147
7   Richfield Springs   190      Utica Notre Dame      169
8   New York Mills      201      Port Byron            198
9   Port Byron          239      Waterville            230
10  Pulaski             248
11  Oriskany            263      ** 14 incomplete teams ran
12  Waterville          306      
Post-Race Comments ... Beaver River ran very well and deserves to be sectional champion ... Tully ran close to predictions and is still the 4th best Class D team in the State ... Tully's Emily Schmidt was final healthy and ready to run a big race, but she lost a shoe in the first 400 meters of the race (a team-mate accidentally stepped on the back of it) ... Emily still finished 13th in an excellent effort (and with a very sore foot).


Pre-Race Team Analysis ... Beaver River is a very good team and will be tough to beat ... their top three runners (Lauren Moser, Julie Emery and Adrienne Gagnier) are solid and their support runners (Kendra Chamberlain, Kisa Ruiz, Jolene Munger, Amanda Zehr) have run well ... Tully is a longshot, but there is a possibility of winning ... if Tully can put together top performances from their top runners on the same day (which hasn't come close to happening all year), the team score could get very close & very interesting depending on where selected runners from other schools finish in relation to Tully and Beaver River runners ... it's a longshot, but it could happen - after all, the New Moon Phase begins Thursday Nov 1st , and the planets are aligning correctly .

Pre-Race Individual Analysis ... The individual race winner will likely be either Lauren Noble (Little Falls) or Lauren Moser (Beaver River) ... Noble just defeated Moser by nine seconds at the Adirondack Invite - my speed ratings have Moser ahead by 3 seconds (but that's not a predictive rating) ... in terms of the team score, it doesn't matter because Little Falls does not have a complete team (and incomplete team runners are excluded from the team score) ... Runners with good chances of qualifying as individuals to States include Jessica Portmess (Tully), Heather Roberts (Tully), Chelsea Gibson (Weedsport), Jessica McAnaney (Tully), Megan Dever (NY Mills), Ashley Brown (Lafayette), Taylor Leach (Old Forge), Kristin Edinger (OCS), and Emily Schmidt (Tully).




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