Girls Rankings:
Individual 2001 XC
Team 2001 XC
Boys Rankings:
Individual 2001 XC
Team 2001 XC
Race Results
Running Links
Articles
Archives
Contact Info
Home
|
November 4, 2001 ... Here are the pre-race projections
& Actual Results for
the 2001 Sectionals
The projected scores shown below are the results of
various computer simulations ... I ran thousands of individual
race simulations for each Class and combined the results to get a final
score. Since the race simulations output probabilities, I converted the
probabilities to point scores based upon individual runner placement.
Please remember:
the predicted scores below only indicate the "most likely" outcome based
upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they
are only one indication of how good a team is. I used the top seven
runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem
with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some
teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on
October 30, 2001.
|
Boys
... Class A ... Liverpool over a
good FM team |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== =================== =====
1 Liverpool 34 Liverpool 23
2 FM 50 FM 51
3 CNS 80 Central Square 106
4 Central Square 140 CNS 119
5 Watertown 144 Corcoran 187
6 Corcoran 191 Watertown 204
7 West Genesee 192 Auburn 207
8 Auburn 241 West Genesee 220
9 Rome 263 Rome 226
10 Baldwinsville 272 Baldwinsville 243
11 Proctor 315 Proctor 305
12 Whitesboro 327 Oswego 326
13 Oswego 344 Whitesboro 329
14 Henninger 357 Nottingham 372
15 Nottingham 429 ESM 396
16 ESM 441 Henninger ..inc
17 Fowler 506 Fowler ..inc
|
|
Post-Race
Comments ...
Liverpool's team depth was the key ... their top 7 finishers
were only separated by 41 seconds, and that is outstanding ... with
about 1200 meters remaining in the race, FM was very close
scoring-wise to Liverpool, but the Liverpool runners ran very well
over the final 1000 meters to win convincingly ... FM
deserves credit because they also ran very well ... only a minute
and 5 seconds separated their top seven runners and only 32 seconds
separated the top five (same as Liverpool) ... Liverpool is just a
little bit stronger ... hopefully, both teams get into the
Federations. CNS was hampered by some injuries, but Central
Square raced very good to win 3rd place.
|
|
Pre-Race Team Analysis ...
Liverpool was an overwhelming favorite to win the Class A
race a few weeks ago ... today, they are still the favorite, but the
gap between Liverpool and FM has closed significantly ... the reason
- FM has been improving. Liverpool (53 points) beat FM
(79) and CNS (190) at the OHSL Meet last Saturday ...
Liverpool's strength is team depth (all seven runners) plus top
runner Dan McKenna (starting a team score with a "1" is a
nice advantage). Two weeks ago, my ratings had FM
trailing Liverpool by 35 points ... my computer simulations
now have an average gap of roughly 16 points ... in a small
percentage of "predictive" simulations, FM narrowly beat
Liverpool by one or two points (I didn't expect to see that) ... In
any case, Liverpool is still the favorite to win ... if FM
can improve some more team-wise, it could be interesting.
Pre-Race Individual Analysis
... Dan McKenna (Liverpool) is the favorite to win ... Dave
Masse (FM), Bryan Buchanan (CNS) and Chris Nolan (Liverpool) appear
closely rated for next three places. Five individuals (not
from the winning team) qualify to run at States ... the Class A Boys
have a fairly large group runners closely rated that are capable of
qualifying for States (see Boys Ranking Page)
... could be a good battle.
|
| Boys
... Class B ... Chittenango
narrow choice over Skaneateles |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== =================== =====
1 Chittenango 65 Chittenango 58
2 Skaneateles 77 Skaneateles 97
3 Cazenovia 138 Westhill 134
4 Westhill 143 Camden 158
5 Homer 185 Cazenovia 173
6 Jamesville Dewitt 185 Jamesville Dewitt 174
7 New Hartford 200 Fulton 201
8 Fulton 210 New Hartford 203
9 Camden 254 Homer 217
10 Cortland 257 Cortland 231
11 Indian River 264 Oneida 252
12 Oneida 288 Phoenix 322
13 Phoenix 332 Indian River 330
14 VVS 355 VVS 335
15 Mexico 384 Mexico 413
16 Frankfort-Mohawk 440 Frankfort-Mohawk ..inc
Carthage ..inc
|
|
Post-Race
Comments ... Chittenango ran close to
projections ... Skaneateles did not have their best day, but
they ran well enough to be second (Coach Reed made a good decision
in moving the team from Class C to Class B) ... I clearly
under-estimated Camden who performed much better than
predicted (good job by their team).
|
| Pre-Race Team Analysis ...
My simulations make Chittenango a narrow choice over Skaneateles
... Skaneateles beat Chittenango in the Baldwinsville Invitational,
but Chittenango beat Skaneateles in the B1/B2 Cross
Over Meet (43-59) and at OHSL's (242-249) ... this is a close
match-up and both teams are capable of winning ... should be a
good race!
Pre-Race Individual Analysis
... Steve Corsello (Skaneateles) and Sam Morse (Camden) are the
top Class B individual runners going into sectionals ... a fairly
large group of closely rated runners could contend for the five
State qualifying positions (see Boys Ranking
Page) ... they include Jeff McAleer (Cazenovia), Tim Koch
(Oneida) and many others.
|
| Boys
... Class C ... Sauquoit Valley |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== =================== =====
1 Sauquoit Valley 53 Sauquoit Valley 43
2 Holland Patent 99 Cooperstown 72
3 Cooperstown 101 Holland Patent 131
4 Mount Markham 156 Mount Markham 135
5 South Jefferson 174 CBA 178
6 CBA 181 Cato Meridian 194
7 Cato Meridian 213 Herkimer 204
8 Marcellus 238 Canastota 206
9 Herkimer 243 South Lewis 214
10 South Lewis 247 South Jefferson 225
11 Canastota 266 Marcellus 226
12 Adirondack 305 Adirondack 308
13 Jordan-Elbridge 311 Jordan-Elbridge 336
14 APW 323 APW 339
15 Bishop Ludden 418 Clinton 398
16 Clinton 429 Hannibal 444
17 Hannibal 458 Ilion 491
18 Ilion 505 Solvay ..inc
19 Solvay 586 Bishop Ludden ..inc
Lowville ..inc
|
|
Post-Race
Comments ... Sauquoit Valley was the dominant
team ... Cooperstown continued their recent improvement to be
a very good 2nd-place team.
|
| Pre-Race Team Analysis ...
Sauquoit Valley is the clear favorite to win Class C ...
their top three runners (Allan Merrick, John Nicotera and Kevin
Horvath) have been running very well all year (and none of their top
five runners are seniors). Holland Patent and Cooperstown
have shown real nice improvement, and could get closer than the
predicted score above.
Pre-Race Individual Analysis
... Class C has a real good group of runners at the top end (see
Boys Ranking Page) ... any one of them is
capable of winning ... this group includes the three Sauquoit
runners noted above, Dan Tickner (Bishop Ludden), Brad Ariola (APW),
Jason Croniser (Adirondack), Andrew Lawson (Holland Patent), Bobby
Perkins (South Lewis) and John Evans (CBA) ... several other runners
could also contend for the individual State qualifying positions ...
I expect a very good competitive individual race.
|
| Boys
... Class D ... Tully |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================ ===== =================== =====
1 Tully 38 Tully 29
2 Beaver River 86 Beaver River 103
3 Little Falls 94 Little Falls 127
4 Pulaski 116 Pulaski 141
5 Lafayette 160 Onondaga 147
6 Utica Notre Dame 179 Lafayette 165
7 Weedsport 191 Weedsport 172
8 Onondaga 199 Utica Notre Dame 175
9 Port Byron 207 Richfield Springs 195
10 Richfield Springs 232 Port Byron 220
11 Sandy Creek 311 New York Mills 297
12 New York Mills 336 Sandy Creek 308
13 Westmoreland 385 Westmoreland 371
14 DeRuyter 386 DeRuyter 387
15 Faith Heritage 407 Faith Heritage ..inc
16 Oriskany 449 Oriskany ..inc
Fabius-Pompey ..inc
Old Forge ..inc
Hamilton ..inc
MPH ..inc
Watertown IHC ..inc
|
| Post-Race
Comments ... Tully had one of their best team
races of the year which is indicated in the final actual score ... Onondaga
ran better than predicted with some good individual efforts.
|
| Pre-Race Team Analysis ...
Tully is the clear favorite to win ... the addition of Lopez
Lomong certainly helped Tully, but even without Lomong, Tully
would still be the favorite ... Sean Rienhardt, Lief Brunet, Tom
Caracci, Toby Dornton, Jesse Burke and Bennett Hillenbrand have
performed very well this season ... Tully must use this race
as preparation for next week's encounter with East Rochester at
States. Beaver River and Little Falls have
also run well this season ... both have shown significant
improvement ... Little Falls beat Beaver River at the Adirondack
Invitational by a score of 109-119 ... my simulations give a small
advantage to Beaver River, so I expect a very close contest between
these two ... Pulaski is not far back and could improve upon
the prediction.
Pre-Race Individual Analysis
... Lopez Lomong (Tully) is the favorite to win the race, but
Kane Seamon (Richfield Springs) is not far behind ... actually,
Seamon has been running well enough to challenge Lomong for the top
spot. Runners capable of qualifying for States include Dustin
Goodfriend (Sandy Creek), Zane Buckingham (Beaver River), Justin
Munger (Beaver River), Mick Wilson (OCS), Kevin McCormick (Notre
Dame), Ander Kazmerski (Little Falls), Shane Reynolds (Pulaski), Ben
Dever (NY Mills) and Randy Hadzor (Lafayette).
|
|