Predicted                              Actual
  Team                 Score         Team                  Score
  ==================   =====         ===================   =====
  Bronxville             53  (Sec 1)  Bronxville             52
  Beaver River           53  (Sec 3)  Beaver River           61
  Groton                 53  (Sec 4)  Groton                 65
  Rhinebeck             124  (Sec 9)  Rhinebeck              85
  Galway                154  (Sec 2)  Randolph              153
  Seton Catholic        173  (Sec 7)  Notre Dame-Batavia    163
  Randolph              178  (Sec 6)  Galway                165
  Notre Dame-Batavia    181  (Sec 5)  Seton Catholic        193
  Norwood-Norfolk       185  (Sec 10) Norwood-Norfolk       217
  Shelter Island        267  (Sec 11) Shelter Island        254

Some Actual Individual Finishes & Speed Ratings (11-10-2001)
============================================================
1   Molly Huddle         12  Elmira ND         18:24.5   150
2   Michelle Rorke       12  Bronxville        19:09.0   135
3   Lauren Moser         10  Beaver River      19:13.9   133
4   Catha Mullen         11  Bronxville        19:24.7   130
5   Heather Iatauro      10  Tri-Valley        19:30.0   128
7   Caroline Mullen      11  Bronxville        19:42.6   124
9   Lauren Noble         11  Little Falls      19:52.2   121
11  Erin Yaichuk         12  Groton            19:53.3   120
13  Katie O'Konsky       10  Groton            20:12.8   114
15  Julie Emery          9   Beaver River      20:16.9   113
16  Jessica Portmess     10  Tully             20:19.3   112
18  Adrienne Gagnier     10  Beaver River      20:20.8   111
21  Kristin Vinson       9   Marathon          20:34.0   107
22  Lynne Vincent        12  Groton            20:39.1   105
24  Kate Ogorzaly        12  Bronxville        20:49.4   102
26  Kendra Chamberlain   10  Beaver River      20:58.9   98
31  Annie Scogin         12  Groton            21:10.9   94
34  Megan Dever          10  New York Mills    21:12.9   94
35  Kristin Edinger      10  Onondaga          21:13.2   94
40  Liz Vinson           11  Marathon          21:19.1   92
42  Leslie Dubrava       10  Marathon          21:22.9   90
44  Alida vanAlmelo      11  Groton            21:23.6   90
49  Kisa Ruiz            11  Beaver River      21:33.2   87
51  Amanda Zehr          9   Beaver River      21:36.4   86
57  Margaret Gustafson   9   Bronxville        21:48.5   82
64  Jolene Munger        12  Beaver River      22:01.0   78
72  Beth Butler          11  Bronxville        22:18.4   72
78  Kari Gallow          12  Groton            22:34.2   67
80  Helen Millson        10  Bronxville        23:04.9   56

Margin of Error: the "margin of error" for most of my computer simulations is approximately six points.

The uncertainties ... the fitness of several key runners has a hug impact on the outcome ... Becky MacKenzie (Groton) ran in only one invitational between Sept 29 and Nov 1 (calf injury) ... Becky's Nov 1 race is difficult to assess, but the speed rating was below her previous efforts and this has an effect on computer simulations ... Becky is a great competitor with lots of ability, so expect her to run well ... Kate Ogorzaly (Bronxville) also had an injury set-back, and assessing her current fitness is also uncertain.  Another Bronxville uncertainty is Helen Millson ... her last two races (sectionals and a road race in Central Park) are excellent and well above her prior performances ... she is a very good runner, so I think she will perform well at States ... her performance is key to a Bronxville victory.

How the Race Will Be Run:  Molly Huddle (Elmira Note Dame) is in the race ... Molly goes out very fast and keeps on going ... if anybody tries to keep up early, they'll finish "with a piano on their back" ... the team-runners should probably ignore Molly altogether.

I don't think Beaver River, Bronxville or Groton have ever raced at Elma Meadows (but not sure) ... all three teams have shown ability on differing race courses (flat, hills, mud, etc), so I don't see an advantage here.

This race could be very close ... any single runner can be the difference ... for some reason, I think one team may emerge as a clear winner ... I just don't know who it is ... Good Luck To All Teams!

Individual Race: The over-whelming individual race favorite is Molly Huddle (Elmira Notre Dame) ... Molly has run twelve XC races this season, and has set twelve course records ... last outdoor track & field season, Molly was State & Federation champion at both 1500 meters and 3000 meters ... Amongst the team-scoring runners, the favorites include Michelle Rorke (Bronxville), Catha Mullen (Bronxville), Caroline Mullen (Bronxville), Lauren Moser (Beaver River), and Erin Yaichuk (Groton).

Bronxville won the Westchester County Championships by outscoring New Rochelle, Horace Greeley and Somers (45-69-83-107) ... Bronxville took the top three places with Michelle Rorke (1st, 19:44), Caroline Mullen (2nd, 20:09) and Catha Mullen (3rd, 20:15) ... Helen Millson (20th, 22:01) and Beth Butler (27th, 22:16) were the other two team scorers.

Groton easily won the IAC Championships at Marathon over runner-up Marathon and Watkins Glen (24-89-133) ... Groton took five of the top eight places including Erin Yaichuk (2nd, 20:07), Lynne Vincent (3rd, 20:23), Katie O'Konsky (4th, 20:23), Annie Scogin (7th, 21:09) and Alida vanAlmelo (8th, 21:19) ... Becky MacKenzie did not run ... see Coach Week's write-up on the Groton Page.

Beaver River won the Varsity II division of the Adirondack Invitational over Sauquoit Valley and South Lewis (26-46-84) ... top finishers were Lauren Moser (2nd, 18:48), Julie Emery (3rd, 19:36), Adrienne Gagnier (6th, 20:03), Kendra Chamberlain (10th, 20:31), Jolene Munger (14th, 20:49) and Kisa Ruiz (15th, 20:53) ... the race was won by Lauren Noble (Little Falls, 18:39) who finished 2nd to Heather Iatauro (TriValley) in last year's State Class D race.

Tully ran in the OHSL Championship Meet at Baldwinsville ... Tully finished 7th (232 points) behind some very good large school teams such as Skaneateles (59), CNS (81), FM (109) and Liverpool (143) ... the top Tully finishers were Jessica Portmess (23rd, 20:56), Heather Roberts (27th, 21:05), Jessica McAnaney (34th, 21:21), Michelle Lopez (72nd, 22:07) and Brianna Seeley (76th, 22:09).

Beaver River won the Frontier League Championships at South Jefferson on Tuesday (Oct 23) by out-scoring South Jefferson and South Lewis (24-31-88) ... individual winner Nichole Lister (S Jeff, 19:04) was followed by Beaver River runners Lauren Moser (2nd, 19:08), Julie Emery (3rd, 19:39), Adrienne Gagnier (4th, 20:18), Kendra Chamberlain (8th, 21:08) and Kisa Ruiz (9th, 21:12) ... Speed ratings were Lauren Moser (132), Julie Emery (122), Adrienne Gagnier (109), Kendra Chamberlain (92), Kisa Ruiz (91), Jolene Munger (79) and Amanda Zehr (78) ... Kisa Ruiz turned in her fastest performance of the year.

Groton will be competing at the IAC Championships at Marathon on Sat (Oct 27) .... Tully will be competing at the OHSL League Championships at Baldwinsville on Sat (Oct 27).

Groton won the Marathon Invitational by defeating Section 4 rival (in terms of being selected to compete in the Federation Meet) Elmira Southside (42-48) ... see Coach Week's write-up on the Groton Page ... Marathon is a physically demanding course, and Groton ran some decent speed ratings as follows ... Erin Yaichuk (116), Becky MacKenzie (113), Lynn Vincent (108), Katie O'Konsky (93), Annie Scogin (98) and Alida vanAlmelo (94) .

Beaver River won the Beaver River Invitational by outscoring Franklin Academy & East Aurora (31-51-59) ... Lauren Moser won the race by over a minute with an outstanding performance (18:05.6) ... Adrienne Gagnier (19:12.3) and Julie Emery (19:13.9) finished 3rd & 5th ... Speed ratings were Lauren Moser (136), Julie Emery (114), Adrienne Gagnier (115), Kendra Chamberlain (99) and Amanda Zehr (86).

Tully finished 2nd to South Jefferson in the Girls Varsity II Division of the Phoenix Invitational (37-53) ... the Lister sisters from South Jeff ran 1-2-3 ... Tully had some improved performances from Jessica Portmess (6th, 20:14) & Brianna Seeley (11th, 20:55 ... another big PR jump for Brianna) ... Jessica Portmess (109), Heather Roberts (105), Jessica McAnaney (100), Brianna Seeley (95) and Lauren Silvernail (73).

The 4-team match-up I have been posting hasn't changed much ... I'm trying to find a better way to predict a realistic score for a complete Class D race.

Beaver River and Groton competed in different divisions of the Baldwinsville Invitational ... Beaver River challenged Skaneateles (#1 ranked class C team in NYS) and national power Saratoga (and #1 ranked class A team in NYS) in the Class A Race ... although finishing 3rd in the team score (Saratoga 21, Skaneateles 76, Beaver River 97, FM 107), Beaver River ran very well ... Speed ratings were Lauren Moser (129), Julie Emery (121), Adrienne Gagnier (115), Kendra Chamberlain (97) and Amanda Zehr (91) ... Lauren Moser, who finished 7th in the race, has been running very impressively ... Amanda Zehr finished in the varsity top five for the first time this season (last year, Amanda won several junior high invitational races including Baldwinsville).

Groton easily won the Class C/D Race at Baldwinsville ... they placed five runners in the top nine finishers ... Erin Yaichuk won the race impressively ... Speed ratings for Groton were Erin Yaichuk (122), Lynn Vincent (108), Katie O'Konsky (105), Annie Scogin (102) and Alida vanAlmelo (99) ... if the Beaver River race times are merged into the C/D race, Groton has a slight advantage over Beaver River ... this is impressive because Groton's other top runner, Becky MacKenzie, did not run due to a slight leg injury ... and for those who have asked, Brandey Hurchla (Groton's top runner last year) is not running this season (which makes Groton's success even more impressive).

Tully finished 3rd in the Syracuse City Schools Invitational at LeMoyne College behind class A teams Cicero-North Syracuse and Ithaca (score 30-34-60) ... actually, Tully ran quite well considering the circumstances ... the Tully girls have nicknamed themselves "Team Asthma" due to the problem that affects more than half the team (including the top five finishers in this race ... several extra inhalers are standard in the med-kit) ... the race conditions were cold, rainy and windy, and these conditions really hampered several Tully runners ... in addition, Jessica McAnaney had a severe bout of stomach flu and stayed home ... Tully speed ratings were Jessica Portmess (102), Heather Roberts (100), Emily Schmidt (84), Annie Rienhardt (83), Brianna Seeley (77) ... this was Brianna's first appearance in Tully's top five.

Using ratings for the season to-date, a simple 4-team match-up yields the following results (almost the same as last week ... but remember, this is an over-simplification ... actual results depend upon runners from other teams who are in the race and where they place in relation ... I can't predict winning probabilities unless I know everybody that's in the race):
Bronxville - 44
Groton - 44
Beaver River - 53
Tully - 69

Groton ran very well at the McQuaid Invitational and finished 2nd to defending State Class C Champion Skaneateles (42-69) ... Speed ratings for Groton were ... Erin Yaichuk (122), Becky MacKenzie (122), Lynne Vincent (106), Annie Scogin (102), Katie O'Konsky (101) and Alida vanAlmelo (89) ... see the Groton Page for additional information.  Bronxville defeated Washingtonville and St. John Villa in the Nazareth Invititational at Van Cortlandt Park (61-94-113) ... for the second week in a row, Michelle Rorke was the individual race winner (and she broke the 15 minute barrier on VCP's 2.5 miles course with a 14:55) ... Speed ratings for Bronxville were ... Michelle Rorke (133), Catha Mullen (126), Caroline Mullen (123), Kate Ogorzaly (100) and Helen Millson (76).

Using ratings for the season to-date, a simple 4-team match-up yields the following results:
Bronxville - 44
Groton - 45
Beaver River - 55
Tully - 66

Beaver River easily won the South Jefferson Invitational and their divisions of the New Hartford & EJ Hermann Invitational races ... top runners Lauren Moser, Adrienne Gagnier and Julie Emery have performed very well, and are rated very highly in the individual rankings ... I watched the South Jeff Invite and was very impressed by their overall team ability ... Groton easily won the Susquehanna Valley Invite. Groton & Tully competed against each at the Auburn Invitational with Tully winning 71-84, however, Groton was missing four of their top runners (Erin Yaichuk, Brandey Hurchla, Katie O'Konsky, Lynne Vincent) and Tully did not have the services of top runner Heather Roberts (severe sinus infection) ... Groton's Becky MacKenzie ran very impressively, and is becoming one of the top Class D runners in State.  Tully has started the season very well by winning their divisions of the ESM, Chenango Valley and Auburn Invitationals ... new varsity runners Emily Schmidt and Annie Rienhardt are performing well.  This past weekend, Bronxville captured the Varsity C division of the Sufflok Coaches Invitational over Bayport & Bellport by a score of 40-83-88 ... Michelle Rorke won the race (20:00.6) and was followed by Catha (20:17.7) and Caroline Mullen (20:27.3). All four teams are off to a great start!

Summary - Bronxville, Beaver River & Groton during 2000

Beaver River and Groton raced each other three times before the State Meet ... Beaver River won all three races with the scores getting closer each time (McQuaid Invitational 119-160, Baldwinsville Invitational 39-57, Beaver River Invitational 39-52).

State Class D Championships

Federation Championships

 Team                  Score
 ===================   =====
 Bronxville              34  (Sec 1)
 Beaver River            39  (Sec 3)
 Groton                  65  (Sec 4)
 Harley Allendale Col   152  (Sec 5)
 Rhinebeck              160  (Sec 9)
 Seton Catholic-Platts  161  (Sec 7)
 Galway                 195  (Sec 2)

  Team                  Score
  ==================    =====
  1- Saratoga              31
  2- Bronxville           139
  3- Skaneateles          146
  4- Pearl River          178
  5- Beaver River         186
  6- Honeoye Falls-Lima   192
 15- Groton               345

Bronxville:
Place  Runner              Time   Rating
===== ===================  =======  ====
  3   Catha Mullen-10      20:15.1   128
  6   Caroline Mullen-10   20:20.3   126
  8   Michelle Rorke-11    20:31.4   123
 16   Melissa Wisner-12    21:19.4   107
 26   Kate Ogorzaly-11     21:45.1   98
 49   Helen Millson-9      22:33.4   82
 50   Elise Duggan-12      22:45.9   78

Bronxville:
Place  Runner              Time   Rating
===== =================    =======  ====
  9   Catha Mullen-10      18:55.5   134
 23   Michelle Rorke-11    19:17.0   126
 44   Caroline Mullen-10   19:40.2   119
 60   Melissa Wisner-12    20:00.5   112
 85   Kate Ogorzaly-11     20:31.9   101
149   Elise Duggan-12      21:37.7   79
209   Helen Millson-9      22:46.8   56

Beaver River:
Place  Runner              Time   Rating
===== ===================  =======  ====
  4   Lauren Moser-9       20:15.5   128
  7   Julie Emery-8        20:22.2   126
 10   Adrienne Gagnier-9   20:37.2   121
 12   Danielle Buzzell-12  20:58.1   114
 30   Kisa Ruiz-10         21:51.0   96
 34   Jolene Munger-11     22:04.4   92
 39   Michelle Golden-10   22:11.1   89

Beaver River:
Place  Runner              Time   Rating
===== ===================  =======  ====
 22   Lauren Moser-9       19:16.4   127
 31   Adrienne Gagnier-9   19:24.1   124
 33   Julie Emery-8        19:25.1   124
 87   Danielle Buzzell-12  20:32.7   101
108   Michelle Golden-10   20:48.6   96
116   Kisa Ruiz-10         20:55.4   94
170   Jolene Munger-11     21:57.9   73

Groton:
Place  Runner              Time   Rating
===== ===================  =======  ====
 14   Brandey Hurchla-9    21:06.6   111
 17   Erin Yaichuk-11      21:25.2   105
 23   Lynne Vincent-11     21:37.2   101
 24   Becky MacKenzie-9    21:41.9   99
 29   Katie O'Konsky-9     21:50.3   96
 35   Annie Scogin-11      22:04.9   91
 41   Kari Gallow-10       22:18.5   87

Groton:
Place  Runner              Time   Rating
===== ===================  =======  ====
 69   Lynne Vincent-11     20:14.7   107
 76   Erin Yaichuk-11      20:23.3   104
111   Brandey Hurchla-9    20:50.8   95
121   Annie Scogin-11      21:02.3   91
139   Becky MacKenzie-9    21:20.6   85
155   Katie O'Konsky-9     21:43.8   77
175   Kari Gallow-10       22:00.8   72

Pre-Season 2001 Comments for Class D

In track, Catha Mullen was 4th in the 1500m race at States (4:36.52) ... during the season, she ran two 800m relay legs in 2:11 and ran a 10:08 3000m.  Caroline Mullen was also outstanding (800m - 2:14.6, 1 mile - 5:08, 3000m - 10:19.7). Kate Ogorzaly had some real good performances (several 800m relay legs of 2:22 to 2:23, 1500m - 4:58.6). In indoor track, Michelle Rorke ran an excellent 3000m of 10:23.4 ... she did not run outdoor track (she's an outstanding soccer player and Section 1 plays soccer in the spring).

Coach Jim  Mitchell has done a great job with his talented group of runners ... last year, Bronxville was 2nd at Federations and 2nd in the merged State team results (only Saratoga was better) ... this year looks just as promising!  But Bronxville only beat Beaver River by 5 points at States ... that's a good indication of Beaver River's strength (and Beaver River may be better this year).  Bronxville is the favorite to repeat, but they face strong competition from Beaver River and Groton.

Beaver River's exceptional improvement last year was due to varsity newcomers Moser, Gagnier and Emery moving up from the junior high team ... it is very rare that three runners of this quality emerge on a single team in the same year (especially a Class D school with only 275 students in the high school).  During last year's pre-season, I thought the Beaver River newcomers would have an impact, but I greatly under-estimated the impact.  I don't have statistics concerning last year's junior high team ... but at the big Baldwinsville Invitational, I believe two Beaver River runners finished 1st (Amanda Zehr) and 3rd in their race!

Beaver River has a very good coaching staff.  Nicole Kuhl will be the girl's head coach this year ... she did a good job with the girl's varsity track team last spring ... husband Travis Kuhl (last year's girls XC coach) will be coaching the boys. Beaver River was one of the five best teams in the State (any class) in 2000 ... this year they could be just as strong or even better.

Yaichuk, MacKenzie and O'Konsky ran XC for the first time last year and performed well ... and based upon their performances in track, they could show significant improvement this XC season.  Some track performances ... Erin Yaichuk (2000mSt - 7:24.7, 1500m - 5:02.9, 800m - 2:26) ... Becky MacKenzie (3000m - 10:54.1) ... Katie O'Konsky (2000mSt - 7:41.4).

Coach Scott Weeks is a very accomplished and experienced runner ... he is the top middle distance runner in central NY (won 5 consecutive 3000m Steeplechases at the Empire Games, but couldn't compete this summer due to a hairline fracture in his leg). Last year Groton finished 9th in the merged State Meet team results ... and this year Coach Weeks could have a much stronger team ... Groton is a real contender.

Coach Michelle Franklin-Rauber will have the team well-prepared ... hopefully, our two Kenyan foreign-exchange students will actually be runners this year ... update - we final got an African runner ... but it's a guy !!!!