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Girls Match-Ups:
Class D 2001
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C 2000
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D 2000
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This web-page primarily considers the
match-up between Skaneateles and Pearl River at the State Level
Updated 11-11-2001
| State
Meet - Girls Class C Team Prediction (11-7-01) ... Actual
(11-10-2001) |
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Predicted Actual
Team Score Team Score
================ ===== ================== =====
Skaneateles 49 (Sec 3) Skaneateles 64
Pearl River 54 (Sec 1) PearlRiver 68
East Aurora 98 (Sec 6) East Aurora 71
Cobbleskill-Rich 114 (Sec 2) Bayport-Bluepoint 117
Windsor 163 (Sec 4) Cobleskille-Rich 125
Bayport-Bluepoint 187 (Sec 11) Windsor 143
Waterloo 189 (Sec 5) Onteora 181
Onteora 189 (Sec 9) Waterloo 189
Saranac Lake 205 (Sec 7) Saranac Lake 225
Gouverneur 259 (Sec 10) Gouverneur 275
Carle Place 268 (Sec 8) Carle Place 299
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Some Actual Individual Finishes & Speed Ratings (11-10-2001)
============================================================
4 Jenny Ryan 12 Clinton 19:53.7 121
5 Lia Cross 12 Skaneateles 19:55.7 120
6 Vanessa McKay 11 Pearl River 19:58.1 119
10 Simone Bras 12 Skaneateles 20:08.6 115
14 Jaclyn Gaines 11 Pearl River 20:14.9 113
16 Carly Calogero 8 Sauquoit Valley 20:19.4 112
19 Carrie Gates 11 Mount Markham 20:26.6 109
22 Melissa Usack 10 Lansing 20:33.6 107
26 Julie Lynch 10 Skaneateles 20:40.1 105
27 Rosemary Foran 8 Canastota 20:43.2 104
29 Pia DeSoiza 12 Pearl River 20:43.9 103
30 Bernice Patten 11 Pearl River 20:44.3 103
31 Natalie Usack 7 Lansing 20:49.4 102
38 Jessica O'Neil 9 Marcellus 20:57.2 99
39 Emily Everding 11 Skaneateles 20:58.2 99
41 Erika Geihe 10 Skaneateles 21:00.7 98
43 Eve Mascoli 10 Pearl River 21:01.9 97
60 Cadie Cargile 12 Skaneateles 21:30.4 88
69 Kylee Jordan 7 Lansing 21:45.1 83
73 Deirdre Brady 11 Pearl River 21:55.8 79
84 Merritt Haswell 12 Skaneateles 22:20.0 71
85 Lyza Sanchez 12 Pearl River 22:30.4 68
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| Post-Race Comments:
After watching the race and calculating the speed ratings, neither Skaneateles
or Pearl River ran their best race ... I believe Skaneateles
has some injuries that are affecting performances. Watching
the finish of the race, I actually thought East Aurora had
won ... but I mistook an individual runner for a team-runner when I
saw the results ... East Aurora gave it a good try, and since
their top four runners are two freshman and two sophomores, they
become a real contender for next year's title.
|
| Pre-Race Analysis:
This is so similar to last year ... shouldn't be surprised
because both teams have many of the same runners as last year.
Once again, Pearl River has been improving and may ready for
a big team effort ... I think they want the State title back! Skaneateles
will be tough to defeat if they perform up to potential.
Margin of Error: the
"margin of error" for most of my computer simulations is
approximately six points ... this means that either team can win,
but Skaneateles has a small advantage based on speed.
How the Race Will Be Run:
To be honest, I'm not sure ... however, I think the eventual victor
will be decided by two factors, (1) the match-ups
between the individual Skaneateles and Pearl River runners and (2)
the placement of runners from other teams amongst the
Skaneateles and Pearl River runners (this was a key factor in
computer simulations where Pearl River did best).
Good Luck to Both Teams!
|
| Oct. 29, 2001 ...
Skaneateles
won the OHSL (Onondaga High School League) Meet held in
Baldwinsville by outscoring Cicero-North Syracuse, Fayetteville
Manlius and Liverpool (59-81-102-143) ... 39 OHSL member schools
competed in the meet that brings together class A, B, C & D
teams ... Skaneateles placed five runners in the top 20
places including Lia Cross (3rd, 19:28), Julie Lynch (7th, 19:53),
Simone Bras (11th, 20:12), Cadie Cargile (18th, 20:38) and Emily
Everding (20th, 20:50) ... it was an impressive performance by a
team that is running very well.
Pearl River easily won the
Rockland County Championship Meet held at Bear Mountain ... they
outscored Clarkstown South, North Rockland and Albertus Magnus
(20-95-95-98) ... Pearl River took five of the top seven
places including Jaclyn Gaines (1st, 18:31), Vanessa McKay (2nd,
18:48), Pia DeSoiza (4th, 19:08), Lyza Sanchez (6th, 19:33) and Eve
Mascoli (7th, 19:35) ... although not competitive from other teams,
this was a very good performance by Pearl River ... only a
minute and 4 seconds separated the five runners and the overall
speed was very good (e.g. Jaclyn Gaines had a speed rating of 126).
Just like last year, Skaneateles
has an advantage based on my speed ratings ... and just like last
year, Pearl River is closing the gap as the State Meet
approaches. I can not stress one point enough ... my
speed ratings only indicate how fast athletes have run relative
to other runners ... by themselves, they do not necessarily
predict how fast somebody will run ... some coaches do an
excellent job in gearing their runners up for specific races, and
their team speed ratings (which I don't show on this web-site) will
rise markedly for a single race ... in some cases (but not all), a
rise in team speed rating is predictable (example - the FM boys in
the OHSL Meet). This match-up between Skaneateles &
Pearl River is much closer than some people realize ... I see
a very competitive race developing (I hope injuries or sickness have
no part in determining the winner).
|
| Oct. 22, 2001 ...
Skaneateles
did not compete in an invitational this past weekend ... Skaneateles
will be competing in the OHSL League Meet at Baldwinsville on
Saturday (Oct 27).
Pearl River won the
Girls Varsity 1 division of the Section 1 Coach's Invitational at
Westchester Community College (site of the 1999 State Championships)
... Pearl River easily outscored Horace Greeley, New
Rochelle, JFK and Suffern (24-67-68-137-140) ... Pearl River captured
five of the top eight finishing positions, including Jaclyn Gaines
(1st, 20:27), Vanessa McKay (3rd, 21:23) , Bernice Patten (5th,
21:31), Lyza Sanchez (7th, 21:45) and Eve Mascoli (8th, 21:51) ...
my speed
ratings for this race are as follows ... Vanessa McKay (104), Jaclyn
Gaines (123), Pia DeSoiza (89), Bernice Patten (102), Eve Mascoli
(95) and Lyza
Sanchez (97).
|
| Oct. 18, 2001 ...
Skaneateles
did not compete in an invitational this past weekend ... Skaneateles
competed in the B1/B2 Cross-Over Meet on Wed (Oct 17)
and won the meet handily by outscoring 2nd & 3rd place teams
Westhill & Phoenix (27-69-94) ... individually, Lia Cross
(19:13) finished 2nd to Eastern State Champion Tracey Brauksieck
(Homer, 18:22) while Julie Lynch (19:52), Simone Bras (20:06), Cadie
Cargile (20:16) and Emily Everding (20:17) finished 4th, 6th, 7th
and 8th, respectively ... the race was run under miserable weather
conditions (40 deg, high winds and rainy) ...
speed ratings were: Lia Cross (131), Julie Lynch (118), Simone Bras
(113), Cadie
Cargile (110), Emily Everding (110), Erika Geihe (99) and Kathleen
Nyzio (94).
Pearl River won the
Girls Varsity E Division of the Manhattan Invitational at Van
Cortlandt Park ... Pearl River outscored John Jay (NY) and
Shenedehowa (54-86-98) ... they placed three runners in the top nine
finishers including Jaclyn Gaines (5th, 16:13), Vanessa McKay (8th,
16:34.7) and Pia DeSouza (9th, 16:35.3) ... My speed
ratings for this race are as follows ... Vanessa McKay (112), Jaclyn
Gaines (119), Pia DeSoiza (112), Bernice Patten (106), Eve Mascoli
(102) and Lyza
Sanchez (94). |
| Oct. 10, 2001 ...
Skaneateles
competed in the Division "A" Race at the Baldwinsville
Invitational against two top Section 3 teams (Beaver River
& Fayetteville-Manlius) and against NYS Class
"A" Champion Saratoga ... Skaneateles ran
very well ... the final team score was Saratoga - 21, Skaneateles -
76, Beaver River - 97 & FM - 107) ... Saratoga is the top ranked
girls team in the nation for a good reason! Skaneateles
speed ratings were ... Lia Cross (130), Julie Lynch (120), Simone Bras
(108), Cadie
Cargile (113), Emily Everding (107) and Erika Geihe (102) ... these
numbers are very consistent with their McQuaid race (and a seasonal
best for Erika Geihe). Skaneateles is not competing in
an invitational this coming weekend ... they will be competing in
the B1/B2 Crossover Meet & the OHSL League Meet (10-27) before
sectionals (at Tully on Nov 3rd).
Pearl River ... I was
informed that Pearl River competed in the Disney World Cross
Country Classic in Florida (Tully is considering the same trip next
year) ... the Armory Track
web-site links to the results ... Pearl River won the
Varsity 2A division by outscoring Cocoa Beach HS, Pope John Paul II
HS and Ocean City (NJ) HS by a score of 27-59-73-79 ... Pearl
River placed 5 runners in the top 8 places ... Jaclyn Gaines
(18:31.94) and Vanessa McKay (18:49.21) completed the 3 mile course
in under 19 minutes (only 20 of the 450+ runners in the four varsity
divisions broke the 19 minute barrier) ... My approximate speed
ratings for this race are as follows ... Vanessa McKay (120), Jaclyn
Gaines (126), Pia DeSoiza (113), Bernice Patten (100) and Lyza
Sanchez (102). |
| Oct. 1, 2001 ...
another brief update this week
Skaneateles won the
Seeded Varsity A division of the McQuaid
Invitational ... they beat a very good Groton and South
Jefferson by a score of 42-69-142. Lia Cross finished 3rd overall
with Nichole Lister (S Jeff) finishing 2nd (only 5 seconds ahead of
Lia). The Skaneateles girls ran some impressive speed ratings
... Lia Cross (132), Julie Lynch (119), Simone Bras (109), Cadie
Cargile (112), Emily Everding (108) and Erika Geihe (95). The basic
strength of the team appears to be very good ... and it appears to
be similar to the team that won the State title last year.
Pearl River continues
to win ... they easily outscored Cornwall, Horace Greeley and John
Jay EF (45-83-105-134) at the Arlington Invitational. My speed
ratings for this race are as follows ... Vanessa McKay (106), Jaclyn
Gaines (105), Pia DeSoiza (99), Bernice Patten (94) and Lyza
Sanchez (88) ... Pearl River is running faster speed ratings this
year when compared to the same time last year (and they improved
significantly as the date of State Meet at SUNY Utica
approached)! A note about last week ... in the merged
results of the Suffolk Coaches Invitational, I was informed that Pearl River beat
Bronxville by three points.
|
| Sept. 24, 2001 ...
this is the first weekly update for the 2001 season ... just a brief
re-cap of how the teams have done early in the season (I will begin
generating number ratings in a week or two when more results are
available).
Skaneateles easily won
their divisions of the Liverpool
and Auburn Invitational races
... Lia Cross won both races comfortably ... Julie Lynch, Simone
Bras, Cadie Cargile, Emily Everding and others are running very well
... based upon performances to date, Skaneateles is the top rated
team in Section 3 (all classes). Pearl River
easily captured the Varsity B division of the Suffolk Coaches
Invitational over William Floyd and St. Anthony's (37-102-121) ...
Jaclyn Gaines, Pia DeSoiza, Bernice Patten, Vanessa McKay and Lyza
Sanchez were all in the top 11 finishers of the race. The
Pearl River - Skaneateles match-up looks very competitive again !! |
|
Summary - Skaneateles &
Pearl River during 2000 |
| This table
presents a quick overview of the Skaneateles vs. Pearl River
match-up for the 2000 XC season ... the
table further below presents some pre-season comments for the
2001 season. Skaneateles and Pearl River raced against each
other twice in 2000 (State Class C Championship at SUNY Utica
Tech and Federation Championship at Bowdoin Park) ... Skaneateles
prevailed on both occasions. In the Federation meet,
Skaneateles and Pearl River were the 3rd and 4th best teams,
respectively, in New York State ... in the State meet, Skaneateles
and Pearl River were the 4th and 5th best teams, respectively, in
the merged team scores.
That's one reason I find this match-up interesting ... not only are
they competitive with other, they are two of the best teams in New
York State (and Skaneateles is in Section 3). |
|
State Class C
Championships |
Federation
Championships |
Team Score
================== =====
Skaneateles 44
Pearl River 50
Chatham 101
Waterloo 139
Saranac Lake 155
Canton 158
Bayport-Bluepoint 160
|
Team Score
================== =====
Saratoga 31
Bronxville 139
Skaneateles 146
Pearl River 178
Beaver River 186
Honeoye Falls-Lima 192
Colonie 204
|
Skaneateles:
Place Runner Time Rating
===== =================== ======= ====
2 Lia Cross-11 20:07.2 131
8 Vanessa Everding-12 20:49.6 116
10 Julie Lynch-9 20:50.4 116
17 Simone Bras-11 21:09.9 110
32 Cadie Cargile-11 21:49.9 96
45 Erika Geihe-9 22:08.4 90
52 Emily Everding-10 22:16.2 88
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Skaneateles:
Place Runner Time Rating
===== =================== ======= ====
13 Lia Cross-11 19:00.9 132
28 Vanessa Everding-12 19:23.1 124
54 Simone Bras-11 19:52.2 115
55 Julie Lynch-9 19:54.6 114
81 Cadie Cargile-11 20:25.9 103
82 Emily Everding-10 20:26.5 103
146 Erika Geihe-9 21:33.1 81
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Pearl River:
Place Runner Time Rating
===== =================== ======= ====
6 Vanessa McKay-10 20:38.6 120
11 Pia Desoiza-11 20:56.5 114
14 Jaclyn Gaines-10 20:59.3 113
20 Bernice Patten-10 21:17.1 107
27 Courtney O'Keefe-12 21:30.7 103
38 Kathleen Barrett-10 21:56.5 94
46 Mary O-12 22:09.8 90
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Pearl River:
Place Runner Time Rating
===== =================== ======= ====
20 Vanessa McKay-10 19:15.2 127
36 Pia Desoiza-11 19:29.8 122
45 Jaclyn Gaines-10 19:40.9 118
73 Courtney O'Keefe-12 20:20.6 105
101 Mary O-12 20:40.0 99
106 Bernice Patten-10 20:44.1 97
129 Kathleen Barrett-10 21:09.6 89
|
|
Pre-Season 2001
Comments |
| Skaneateles |
Skaneateles graduates just
one runner from their top seven, but Vanessa Everding is a
significant loss ... Vanessa was a strong #2 runner as well as a
team leader. Even without Vanessa, Skaneateles returns a very strong
team that includes Lia Cross, Julie Lynch, Cadie
Cargile, Simone Bras, Emily Everding, Erika Geihe, Lindsay Stanley
and Irena McQuarrie. Skaneateles appears to be the top team in Section 3
(along with Beaver River).
Lia Cross had another outstanding spring seasons in
track ... at States, Lia finished 11th overall in
the 3000m (10:24.98) and consistently ran 800m relay legs in the
2:23 to 2:25 range. Other runners also did well in track ... Simone
Bras (3000m - 10:59.8; 800m - 2:26.9), Julie Lynch (800m - 2:26.7),
Irena McQuarrie (800m - 2:23.1), Erika Geihe (400m - 59.5).
Coach Jack Reed is one of the finest
& most knowledgeable coaches anywhere. All things
considered, I believe Skaneateles has a realistic chance to defend
their Class C State title ... but it definitely won't be easy ... I
believed Pearl River will be better this year than last ...
therefore, Skaneateles must also improve team-wise to repeat. |
| Pearl River |
Pearl
River returns five of the top seven runners from last year ...
graduates include Courtney O'Keefe and Mary O. Courtney
O'Keefe was the State Class C Champion in 1999, but she was hampered
by a stress fracture in 2000 ... if she was healthy in 2000, the
team results may have been different (there's no way to know for
sure). In any case, Pearl River is returning a very strong team that
includes
Vanessa McKay, Jaclyn Gaines, Bernice Patten, Pia
Desoiza, Kathleen Barlett, Lyza Sanchez, Megan Sheehan, Nicole
Barowski, and Eve Mascali. In addition, Pearl River had very
strong JV team last year ... at the New Hartford Invite (Utica Tech)
in the JV race with 200+ runners, their top five runners finished a
remarkable 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th.
Pearl River also had some excellent
performances in track ... Vanessa McKay (3000m - 10:39.2; 2000mSt -
7:29.9), Pia DeSoiza (800m - 2:24.1; 3000m - 10:59, 2000mSt - 7:38),
Jaclyn Gaines (2000mSt - 7:35.5; 1500m - 4:59.18), Bernice Patten
(2000mSt - 7:49.9) ... also, Erin Demchko has performed
exceptionally well in track for the past two years (2000mSt -
7:05.9; 1500m - 4:42.5), but she did not run XC in 2000 (it is
unlikely she will run in 2001).
Coach Dan Doherty is one of the very
best and top coaches in the State ... he does the State girls XC
rankings for Armory Track
in addition to the State girls track leaderboard. Pearl River is the number 2 ranked
team overall in NY State for the entire 1990's (see
link) ... second only to Saratoga. They have a tradition of
excellence. I believe 2001 will be no different ... I also believe
they could be a stronger team in 2001 with a good chance of
regaining the State Class C title. |
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