Girls Class C Match-Up 2001 (by


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This web-page primarily considers the match-up between Skaneateles and Pearl River at the State Level 

Updated 11-11-2001

 State Meet - Girls Class C Team Prediction (11-7-01) ... Actual (11-10-2001)

                Predicted                             Actual
  Team              Score          Team                Score
  ================  =====          ==================  =====
  Skaneateles         49  (Sec 3)  Skaneateles           64
  Pearl River         54  (Sec 1)  PearlRiver            68
  East Aurora         98  (Sec 6)  East Aurora           71
  Cobbleskill-Rich   114  (Sec 2)  Bayport-Bluepoint    117
  Windsor            163  (Sec 4)  Cobleskille-Rich     125
  Bayport-Bluepoint  187  (Sec 11) Windsor              143
  Waterloo           189  (Sec 5)  Onteora              181
  Onteora            189  (Sec 9)  Waterloo             189
  Saranac Lake       205  (Sec 7)  Saranac Lake         225
  Gouverneur         259  (Sec 10) Gouverneur           275
  Carle Place        268  (Sec 8)  Carle Place          299
Some Actual Individual Finishes & Speed Ratings (11-10-2001)
4   Jenny Ryan           12  Clinton           19:53.7   121
5   Lia Cross            12  Skaneateles       19:55.7   120
6   Vanessa McKay        11  Pearl River       19:58.1   119
10  Simone Bras          12  Skaneateles       20:08.6   115
14  Jaclyn Gaines        11  Pearl River       20:14.9   113
16  Carly Calogero       8   Sauquoit Valley   20:19.4   112
19  Carrie Gates         11  Mount Markham     20:26.6   109
22  Melissa Usack        10  Lansing           20:33.6   107
26  Julie Lynch          10  Skaneateles       20:40.1   105
27  Rosemary Foran       8   Canastota         20:43.2   104
29  Pia DeSoiza          12  Pearl River       20:43.9   103
30  Bernice Patten       11  Pearl River       20:44.3   103
31  Natalie Usack        7   Lansing           20:49.4   102
38  Jessica O'Neil       9   Marcellus         20:57.2   99
39  Emily Everding       11  Skaneateles       20:58.2   99
41  Erika Geihe          10  Skaneateles       21:00.7   98
43  Eve Mascoli          10  Pearl River       21:01.9   97
60  Cadie Cargile        12  Skaneateles       21:30.4   88
69  Kylee Jordan         7   Lansing           21:45.1   83
73  Deirdre Brady        11  Pearl River       21:55.8   79
84  Merritt Haswell      12  Skaneateles       22:20.0   71
85  Lyza Sanchez         12  Pearl River       22:30.4   68
Post-Race Comments:  After watching the race and calculating the speed ratings, neither Skaneateles or Pearl River ran their best race ... I believe Skaneateles has some injuries that are affecting performances.  Watching the finish of the race, I actually thought East Aurora had won ... but I mistook an individual runner for a team-runner when I saw the results ... East Aurora gave it a good try, and since their top four runners are two freshman and two sophomores, they become a real contender for next year's title.


Pre-Race Analysis:  This is so similar to last year ... shouldn't be surprised because both teams have many of the same runners as last year.  Once again, Pearl River has been improving and may ready for a big team effort ... I think they want the State title back!  Skaneateles will be tough to defeat if they perform up to potential.

Margin of Error: the "margin of error" for most of my computer simulations is approximately six points ... this means that either team can win, but Skaneateles has a small advantage based on speed.

How the Race Will Be Run:  To be honest, I'm not sure ... however, I think the eventual victor will be decided by two factors, (1) the match-ups between the individual Skaneateles and Pearl River runners and (2) the placement of runners from other teams amongst the Skaneateles and Pearl River runners (this was a key factor in computer simulations where Pearl River did best).

Good Luck to Both Teams!



Oct. 29, 2001 ...  

Skaneateles won the OHSL (Onondaga High School League) Meet held in Baldwinsville by outscoring Cicero-North Syracuse, Fayetteville Manlius and Liverpool (59-81-102-143) ... 39 OHSL member schools competed in the meet that brings together class A, B, C & D teams ... Skaneateles placed five runners in the top 20 places including Lia Cross (3rd, 19:28), Julie Lynch (7th, 19:53), Simone Bras (11th, 20:12), Cadie Cargile (18th, 20:38) and Emily Everding (20th, 20:50) ... it was an impressive performance by a team that is running very well.

Pearl River easily won the Rockland County Championship Meet held at Bear Mountain ... they outscored Clarkstown South, North Rockland and Albertus Magnus (20-95-95-98) ... Pearl River took five of the top seven places including Jaclyn Gaines (1st, 18:31), Vanessa McKay (2nd, 18:48), Pia DeSoiza (4th, 19:08), Lyza Sanchez (6th, 19:33) and Eve Mascoli (7th, 19:35) ... although not competitive from other teams, this was a very good performance by Pearl River ... only a minute and 4 seconds separated the five runners and the overall speed was very good (e.g. Jaclyn Gaines had a speed rating of 126).

Just like last year, Skaneateles has an advantage based on my speed ratings ... and just like last year, Pearl River is closing the gap as the State Meet approaches.  I can not stress one point enough ... my speed ratings only indicate how fast athletes have run relative to other runners ... by themselves, they do not necessarily predict how fast somebody will run ... some coaches do an excellent job in gearing their runners up for specific races, and their team speed ratings (which I don't show on this web-site) will rise markedly for a single race ... in some cases (but not all), a rise in team speed rating is predictable (example - the FM boys in the OHSL Meet).  This match-up between Skaneateles & Pearl River is much closer than some people realize ... I see a very competitive race developing (I hope injuries or sickness have no part in determining the winner).



Oct. 22, 2001 ...  

Skaneateles did not compete in an invitational this past weekend ... Skaneateles will be competing in the OHSL League Meet at Baldwinsville on Saturday (Oct 27).

Pearl River won the Girls Varsity 1 division of the Section 1 Coach's Invitational at Westchester Community College (site of the 1999 State Championships) ... Pearl River easily outscored Horace Greeley, New Rochelle, JFK and Suffern (24-67-68-137-140) ... Pearl River captured five of the top eight finishing positions, including Jaclyn Gaines (1st, 20:27), Vanessa McKay (3rd, 21:23) , Bernice Patten (5th, 21:31), Lyza Sanchez (7th, 21:45) and Eve Mascoli (8th, 21:51) ... my speed ratings for this race are as follows ... Vanessa McKay (104), Jaclyn Gaines (123), Pia DeSoiza (89), Bernice Patten (102), Eve Mascoli (95) and Lyza Sanchez (97).



Oct. 18, 2001 ...  

Skaneateles did not compete in an invitational this past weekend ... Skaneateles competed in the B1/B2 Cross-Over Meet on Wed (Oct 17) and won the meet handily by outscoring 2nd & 3rd place teams Westhill & Phoenix (27-69-94) ... individually, Lia Cross (19:13) finished 2nd to Eastern State Champion Tracey Brauksieck (Homer, 18:22) while Julie Lynch (19:52), Simone Bras (20:06), Cadie Cargile (20:16) and Emily Everding (20:17) finished 4th, 6th, 7th and 8th, respectively ... the race was run under miserable weather conditions (40 deg, high winds and rainy) ... speed ratings were: Lia Cross (131), Julie Lynch (118), Simone Bras (113), Cadie Cargile (110), Emily Everding (110), Erika Geihe (99) and Kathleen Nyzio (94).

Pearl River won the Girls Varsity E Division of the Manhattan Invitational at Van Cortlandt Park ... Pearl River outscored John Jay (NY) and Shenedehowa (54-86-98) ... they placed three runners in the top nine finishers including Jaclyn Gaines (5th, 16:13), Vanessa McKay (8th, 16:34.7) and Pia DeSouza (9th, 16:35.3) ... My speed ratings for this race are as follows ... Vanessa McKay (112), Jaclyn Gaines (119), Pia DeSoiza (112), Bernice Patten (106), Eve Mascoli (102) and Lyza Sanchez (94).


Oct. 10, 2001 ...  

Skaneateles competed in the Division "A" Race at the Baldwinsville Invitational against two top Section 3 teams (Beaver River & Fayetteville-Manlius) and against NYS Class "A" Champion Saratoga ... Skaneateles ran very well ... the final team score was Saratoga - 21, Skaneateles - 76, Beaver River - 97 & FM - 107) ... Saratoga is the top ranked girls team in the nation for a good reason!  Skaneateles speed ratings were ... Lia Cross (130), Julie Lynch (120), Simone Bras (108), Cadie Cargile (113), Emily Everding (107) and Erika Geihe (102) ... these numbers are very consistent with their McQuaid race (and a seasonal best for Erika Geihe).  Skaneateles is not competing in an invitational this coming weekend ... they will be competing in the B1/B2 Crossover Meet & the OHSL League Meet (10-27) before sectionals (at Tully on Nov 3rd).

Pearl River ... I was informed that Pearl River competed in the Disney World Cross Country Classic in Florida (Tully is considering the same trip next year) ... the Armory Track web-site links to the results ... Pearl River won the Varsity 2A division by outscoring Cocoa Beach HS, Pope John Paul II HS and Ocean City (NJ) HS by a score of 27-59-73-79 ... Pearl River placed 5 runners in the top 8 places ... Jaclyn Gaines (18:31.94) and Vanessa McKay (18:49.21) completed the 3 mile course in under 19 minutes (only 20 of the 450+ runners in the four varsity divisions broke the 19 minute barrier) ... My approximate speed ratings for this race are as follows ... Vanessa McKay (120), Jaclyn Gaines (126), Pia DeSoiza (113), Bernice Patten (100) and Lyza Sanchez (102).



Oct. 1, 2001 ... another brief update this week

Skaneateles won the Seeded Varsity A division of the McQuaid Invitational ... they beat a very good Groton and South Jefferson by a score of 42-69-142. Lia Cross finished 3rd overall with Nichole Lister (S Jeff) finishing 2nd (only 5 seconds ahead of Lia).  The Skaneateles girls ran some impressive speed ratings ... Lia Cross (132), Julie Lynch (119), Simone Bras (109), Cadie Cargile (112), Emily Everding (108) and Erika Geihe (95). The basic strength of the team appears to be very good ... and it appears to be similar to the team that won the State title last year.

Pearl River continues to win ... they easily outscored Cornwall, Horace Greeley and John Jay EF (45-83-105-134) at the Arlington Invitational.  My speed ratings for this race are as follows ... Vanessa McKay (106), Jaclyn Gaines (105), Pia DeSoiza (99), Bernice Patten (94) and Lyza Sanchez (88) ... Pearl River is running faster speed ratings this year when compared to the same time last year (and they improved significantly as the date of State Meet at SUNY Utica approached)!  A note about last week ... in the merged results of the Suffolk Coaches Invitational, I was informed that Pearl River beat Bronxville by three points.


Sept. 24, 2001 ... this is the first weekly update for the 2001 season ... just a brief re-cap of how the teams have done early in the season (I will begin generating number ratings in a week or two when more results are available).

Skaneateles easily won their divisions of the Liverpool and Auburn Invitational races ... Lia Cross won both races comfortably ... Julie Lynch, Simone Bras, Cadie Cargile, Emily Everding and others are running very well ... based upon performances to date, Skaneateles is the top rated team in Section 3 (all classes).  Pearl River easily captured the Varsity B division of the Suffolk Coaches Invitational over William Floyd and St. Anthony's (37-102-121) ... Jaclyn Gaines, Pia DeSoiza, Bernice Patten, Vanessa McKay and Lyza Sanchez were all in the top 11 finishers of the race.  The Pearl River - Skaneateles match-up looks very competitive again !!


Summary - Skaneateles & Pearl River during 2000

This table presents a quick overview of the Skaneateles vs. Pearl River match-up for the 2000 XC season ... the table further below presents some pre-season comments for the 2001 season.  Skaneateles and Pearl River raced against each other twice in  2000 (State Class C Championship at SUNY Utica Tech and Federation Championship at Bowdoin Park) ... Skaneateles prevailed on both occasions.  In the Federation meet, Skaneateles and Pearl River were the 3rd and 4th best teams, respectively, in New York State ... in the State meet, Skaneateles and Pearl River were the 4th and 5th best teams, respectively, in the merged team scores.  That's one reason I find this match-up interesting ... not only are they competitive with other, they are two of the best teams in New York State (and Skaneateles is in Section 3).

State Class C Championships

Federation Championships

 Team                Score
 ==================  =====
 Skaneateles           44 
 Pearl River           50 
 Chatham              101 
 Waterloo             139 
 Saranac Lake         155 
 Canton               158 
 Bayport-Bluepoint    160 
 Team                Score
 ==================  =====
 Saratoga               31
 Bronxville            139
 Skaneateles           146
 Pearl River           178
 Beaver River          186
 Honeoye Falls-Lima    192
 Colonie               204
Place  Runner              Time   Rating
===== ===================  =======  ====
  2   Lia Cross-11         20:07.2   131
  8   Vanessa Everding-12  20:49.6   116
 10   Julie Lynch-9        20:50.4   116
 17   Simone Bras-11       21:09.9   110
 32   Cadie Cargile-11     21:49.9   96
 45   Erika Geihe-9        22:08.4   90
 52   Emily Everding-10     22:16.2   88
Place  Runner              Time   Rating
===== ===================  =======  ====
 13   Lia Cross-11         19:00.9   132
 28   Vanessa Everding-12  19:23.1   124
 54   Simone Bras-11       19:52.2   115
 55   Julie Lynch-9        19:54.6   114
 81   Cadie Cargile-11     20:25.9   103
 82   Emily Everding-10    20:26.5   103
146   Erika Geihe-9        21:33.1   81
Pearl River:
Place  Runner              Time   Rating
===== ===================  =======  ====
  6   Vanessa McKay-10     20:38.6   120
 11   Pia Desoiza-11       20:56.5   114
 14   Jaclyn Gaines-10     20:59.3   113
 20   Bernice Patten-10    21:17.1   107
 27   Courtney O'Keefe-12  21:30.7   103
 38   Kathleen Barrett-10  21:56.5   94
 46   Mary O-12            22:09.8   90
Pearl River:
Place  Runner              Time   Rating
===== ===================  =======  ====
 20   Vanessa McKay-10     19:15.2   127
 36   Pia Desoiza-11       19:29.8   122
 45   Jaclyn Gaines-10     19:40.9   118
 73   Courtney O'Keefe-12  20:20.6   105
101   Mary O-12            20:40.0   99
106   Bernice Patten-10    20:44.1   97
129   Kathleen Barrett-10  21:09.6   89


Pre-Season 2001 Comments

Skaneateles Skaneateles graduates just one runner from their top seven, but Vanessa Everding is a significant loss ... Vanessa was a strong #2 runner as well as a team leader. Even without Vanessa, Skaneateles returns a very strong team that includes Lia Cross, Julie Lynch,  Cadie Cargile, Simone Bras, Emily Everding, Erika Geihe, Lindsay Stanley and Irena McQuarrie. Skaneateles appears to be the top  team in Section 3 (along with Beaver River).

Lia Cross had another outstanding spring seasons in track ... at States, Lia finished 11th overall in the 3000m (10:24.98) and consistently ran 800m relay legs in the 2:23 to 2:25 range. Other runners also did well in track ... Simone Bras (3000m - 10:59.8; 800m - 2:26.9), Julie Lynch (800m - 2:26.7), Irena McQuarrie (800m - 2:23.1), Erika Geihe (400m - 59.5).

Coach Jack Reed is one of the finest & most knowledgeable coaches anywhere.  All things considered, I believe Skaneateles has a realistic chance to defend their Class C State title ... but it definitely won't be easy ... I believed Pearl River will be better this year than last ... therefore, Skaneateles must also improve team-wise to repeat.

Pearl River Pearl River returns five of the top seven runners from last year ... graduates include Courtney O'Keefe and Mary O.  Courtney O'Keefe was the State Class C Champion in 1999, but she was hampered by a stress fracture in 2000 ... if she was healthy in 2000, the team results may have been different (there's no way to know for sure). In any case, Pearl River is returning a very strong team that includes Vanessa McKay, Jaclyn Gaines, Bernice Patten, Pia Desoiza, Kathleen Barlett, Lyza Sanchez, Megan Sheehan, Nicole Barowski, and Eve Mascali.  In addition, Pearl River had very strong JV team last year ... at the New Hartford Invite (Utica Tech) in the JV race with 200+ runners, their top five runners finished a remarkable 1st, 2nd, 4th, 5th and 6th.

Pearl River also had some excellent performances in track ... Vanessa McKay (3000m - 10:39.2; 2000mSt - 7:29.9), Pia DeSoiza (800m - 2:24.1; 3000m - 10:59, 2000mSt - 7:38), Jaclyn Gaines (2000mSt - 7:35.5; 1500m - 4:59.18), Bernice Patten (2000mSt - 7:49.9) ... also, Erin Demchko has performed exceptionally well in track for the past two years (2000mSt - 7:05.9; 1500m - 4:42.5), but she did not run XC in 2000 (it is unlikely she will run in 2001).

Coach Dan Doherty is one of the very best and top coaches in the State ... he does the State girls XC rankings for Armory Track in addition to the State girls track leaderboard. Pearl River is the number 2 ranked team overall in NY State for the entire 1990's (see link) ... second only to Saratoga. They have a tradition of excellence. I believe 2001 will be no different ... I also believe they could be a stronger team in 2001 with a good chance of regaining the State Class C title.


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