Section 3 Girls Team Ranking Page for 2004 (by TullyRunners.com)

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November 2, 2004 ... Girls pre-race projections for the 2004 Section 3 Championships

 

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 2, 2004 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet  Actual Scores Added Nov 7, 2004

 

 Girls Class AA ... CNS to confirm national ranking
 

                      Predicted                         Actual
      School              Score      School              Score
      ==================  =====      ==================  =====
  1   CNS                    26      CNS                    28
  2   FM                     72      FM                     69
  3   West Genesee           76**    West Genesee           80
  4   Auburn                 97      Auburn                 99
  5   Liverpool             135      Liverpool             110
  6   Baldwinsville         152      Baldwinsville         160
  7   Rome                  216      Rome                  230
  8   Central Square        221      Central Square        236
  9   Oswego                278      Oswego                241
  10  Proctor               284      Henninger             296
  11  Henninger             330
				
Post Race Comment ... This race went very close to prediction for all teams.

Pre-Race Analysis ... CNS is the overwhelming favorite to win - they are a deep and talented team ... Improving FM finished 2nd at OHSL and is the slightly favorite to finish second ... West Genesee was missing top runner Elizabeth McMahon at OHSL due to a knee injury - her status for sectionals is not clear, hence the (**) next to West Genny's predicted score above (Nov 4 update - McMahon is expected to run) - with a good race by McMahon (and the other WG runners), West Genesee will likely finish second.

Individual Race ... Marie Parks (CNS) was very impressive in winning the OHSL race ... at her best, Nicki Junod (CNS) is capable of running the Parks ... Elizabeth McMahon (West Genesee) and Kristen Taylor (FM) are fairly evenly matched in speed.

 

 Girls Class A ... New Hartford peaking at right time
 

                      Predicted                         Actual
      School              Score      School              Score
      ==================  =====      ==================  =====
  1   New Hartford           37      New Hartford           42
  2   Whitesboro             53      ESM                    56
  3   ESM                    59      Whitesboro             57
  4   Corcoran              109      Corcoran               86
  5   Nottingham            149      Nottingham            127
  6   Watertown             153
  7   Fulton                179
				
Post Race Comment ... the race went reasonably close to expectations ... ESM edged Whitesboro for second-place.

Pre-Race Analysis ... New Hartford has been running consistently well over the past few weeks - they beat South Jefferson at the Adirondack Invite and won the TVL league meet convincingly over Whitesboro.

Individual Race ... Leah Andrianos (ESM) is the favorite to win the race.

 

 Girls Class B ... Westhill's depth too much for South Jefferson
 

                      Predicted                         Actual
      School              Score      School              Score
      ==================  =====      ==================  =====
  1   Westhill               49      Westhill               48
  2   South Jefferson        81      South Jefferson        61
  3   VVS                   114      VVS                   124
  4   Cazenovia             166      Solvay                157
  5   Chittenango           167      Chittenango           167
  6   Homer                 177      Homer                 178
  7   Solvay                181      Cazenovia             179
  8   Holland Patent        204      Holland Patent        183
  9   Jamesville Dewitt     213      Jamesville-Dewitt     191
  10  Oneida                239      Oneida                199
  11  Marcellus             240      Marcellus             220
  12  Cortland              266      Phoenix               268
  13  Phoenix               267      Camden                403
  14  Camden                418
				
Post Race Comment ... Westhill's depth was the key as expected - their pack finished 5, 6, 8, 9 (in team places) ... South Jefferson ran well with only 13 points separating them from Westhill.

Pre-Race Analysis ... South Jefferson runners could finish one-two in the race, but Westhill could then have four runners finish before the third South Jeff runner finishes ... in relation to this race, Westhill is also seven runners deep (meaning somebody could have a bad race and another runner will make up for it).

Individual Race ... Nichole Lister (South Jefferson) is the overwhelming favorite to win ... team mate Brittany Burns appears to be next best, but with a good race, Amberlyn Mattice (Solvay) could finish 2nd.

 

 Girls Class C ... Skaneateles looking to repeat
 

                      Predicted                         Actual
      School              Score      School              Score
      ==================  =====      ==================  =====
  1   Skaneateles            39      Canastota              50
  2   Canastota              54      Skaneateles            59
  3   Sauquoit Valley        70      Sauquoit Valley        78
  4   CBA                   148      Jordan-Elbridge       177
  5   Jordan-Elbridge       186      CBA                   190
  6   Tully                 207      Tully                 195
  7   Adirondack            208      Adirondack            200
  8   Cato Meridian         245      Cato-Meridian         219
  9   Sherburne-Earl        254      Cooperstown           236
  10  Clinton               278      Sherburne-Earlville   248
  11  Cooperstown           282      Westmoreland          248
  12  Utica Notre Dame      282      Clinton               273
  13  Westmoreland          292      Ilion                 330
  14  Ilion                 301      Utica Notre Dame      340
  15  Hannibal              410
				
Post Race Comment ... This was the big upset of the day ... Canastota came out and ran their best sectional race in several years ... one of Skaneateles' top five runners (Rachel Vaivoda) was not able to finish the race due to dehydration from an on-going virus (however, I don't believe she was going finish high enough to change the outcome on this day).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Skaneateles is the defending State Class C champion, and figures to repeat as sectional champion ... Canastota has a solid group of runners, and on a great day, could make this very interesting ... Sauquoit Valley does not appear to have sufficient depth to win ... If Skaneateles runs up to capabilities, they should win handily.

Individual Race ... This could be a good match-up between Samantha Stedman (Sauquoit) and Jessica O'Neill (Skaneateles) ... both are capable of winning this race ... Stedman has the advantage in consistency over the whole season.

 

 Girls Class D ... Beaver River takes first step towards State title
 

                      Predicted                         Actual
      School              Score      School              Score
      ==================  =====      ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River           30      Beaver River           38
  2   Pulaski                88      Pulaski                80
  3   Weedsport             108      Weedsport              89
  4   Onondaga              148      Onondaga              103
  5   Fabius-Pompey         189      Fabius-Pompey         120
  6   LaFayette             212**    LaFayette             138
  7   Remsen                261      Oriskany              202
  8   Poland                265      New York Mills        210
  9   Oriskany              273      Little Falls          220
  10  New York Mills        291      Richfield Springs     249
  11  Little Falls          292
  12  Sandy Creek           303
  13  Waterville            306
  14  Old Forge             315
  15  West Canada Valley    349
  16  Richfield Springs     364
  17  Living Word           428
				
Post Race Comment ... Close to expectations ... But a fair number of incomplete teams and no-show teams!

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the #1 ranked Class D team in the State - they figure to win handily in preparation for winning States the following week ... Nov 4 update - some scores modified because one of LaFayette's top runners (Stephanie Cornelius) will not run due to tendonitis.

Individual Race ... Nana Sang Bender (Onondaga) is currently the #1 rated Class D runner in the State - she finished an impressive second at OHSL ... Ellen Stevens (Beaver River) and Larkin Kimmerer (Fabius-Pompey) have been running well and should have a good race for 2nd and 3rd.

 

 

 

 

 

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