Section 3 Girls Team Ranking Page for 2002 (by TullyRunners.com)

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November 4, 2002 ... Here are the Girls pre-race projections & Actual Results for the 2002 Section 3 Championships  

The projected scores shown below are the results of various computer simulations ... I ran thousands of individual race simulations for each Class and combined the results to get a final score. Since the race simulations output probabilities, I converted the probabilities to point scores based upon individual runner placement.

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a "likely" outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of how good a team is. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on October 29, 2002 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet.

 

 Girls Class A ... Liverpool a narrow favorite over CNS
 




                     Predicted                         Actual
      School             Score      School              Score
      ================   =====      ==================  =====
  1   Liverpool             51      Liverpool            54
  2   CNS                   60      CNS                  66
  3   Auburn               109      Auburn              101
  4   Whitesboro           135      West Genesee        113
  5   West Genesee         142      Whitesboro          121
  6   Baldwinsville        148      FM                  133
  7   FM                   170      Baldwinsville       137
  8   Oswego               202      Oswego              174
  9   Central Square       291      Central Square      281
  10  Rome                 311      Corcoran            294
  11  Nottingham           321      ESM                 305
  12  Corcoran             325      Rome                325
  13  ESM                  345      Nottingham          369
  14  Proctor              360
  15  Watertown            393  
Pre-Race Analysis ... Cicero-North Syracuse was the pre-season favorite with their entire sectional championship team returning from last year plus some new talented runners ... unfortunately, injuries have seriously hurt CNS ... Despite the injuries, CNS is still a very good team with a reasonable chance to win (how well the injured runners can perform (if they run) is questionable) ... Liverpool has improved throughout the season and appears to be peaking at the right time ... Liverpool outscored CNS at last week's OHSL Meet (91 to 129), but there were 32 teams in that race, and the smaller field will help CNS ... The simulation score above is based primarily on current form, so Liverpool is the favorite.

 

 Girls Class B ... Westhill remains on top
 



                     Predicted                         Actual
      School             Score      School              Score
      ================   =====      ==================  =====
  1   Westhill              40      Westhill             43
  2   Phoenix               57      Phoenix              61
  3   South Jefferson       94      South Jefferson     118
  4   New Hartford         168      Oneida              154
  5   Chittenango          199      Jamesville Dewitt   176
  6   Solvay               203      Solvay              200
  7   Jamesville Dewitt    204      New Hartford        212
  8   Oneida               211      Adirondack          214
  9   Adirondack           229      VVS                 217
 10   VVS                  239      Homer               223
 11   Homer                247      Chittenango         244
 12   Fulton               293      Fulton              259
 13   Camden               307      Camden              318
 14   Carthage             384      Carthage            390 
Pre-Race Analysis ...  The margin between Westhill and Phoenix has been shrinking throughout the year, but Westhill's depth is a big advantage ... Westhill is the defending champion (and 3rd at last year's State Meet) with the same core of runners ... Westhill outscored Phoenix at the OHSL Meet (97 to 174), but the smaller field will make the score closer.

 

 Girls Class C ... Too Close to Call ... but an injury intervenes ...
 



                     Predicted                             Actual
      School             Score          School              Score
      ================   =====          ==================  =====
  1   Canastota             44  (48)    Skaneateles          47
  2   Skaneateles           69  (48)    Canastota            61
  3   Sauquoit Valley      111  (119)   Tully                95
  4   Tully                125  (129)   Sauquoit Valley     116
  5   Cato Meridian        153  (156)   Cato Meridian       150
  6   APW                  164  (167)   Holland Patent      154
  7   Holland Patent       186  (188)   APW                 179
  8   Jordan-Elbridge      227          Marcellus           207
  9   Marcellus            230          Jordan-Elbridge     215
 10   Cazenovia            232          Cazenovia           217
 11   Herkimer             249          CBA                 274
 12   CBA                  315
 13   Hannibal             377

   (Old predicted score in parentheses)
          
Pre-Race Analysis Update ... Coach Reed has informed me that Julie Lynch (Skaneateles' top runner) was injured at the end of the OHSL race ... crossing the finish line, she heard a pop and fell ... she  fractured her pelvis above the hip and is out for a long time (that is very sad news) ... Erik Eibert (Skaneateles' #2 boy runner) is also finished for the season (appendicitis (burst) plus a broken bone).

I have added an updated Predicted Score above ... Canastota is the favorite, but Skaneateles is still within striking distance (an exceptional team effort could make it close).

Old Pre-Race Analysis ...  I spent more time analyzing this race than any other (boys or girls) ... Everything (and I mean everything) indicates that Skaneateles and Canastota are even-up ...  "current form" simulations and "predictive" simulations call this a statistical tie ... amazingly, a 100,000 race simulation had Skaneateles winning exactly 50,000 races and Canastota winning exactly 50,000 races (I have never seen that before) ... clearly, an outstanding performance by any individual runner can make the difference between winning and losing .... Oh, did I mention Tully will be using two new Kenyan runners (but I forgot to include them in the simulations) .

 

 Girls Class D ... Beaver River prepares for States
 



                     Predicted                         Actual
      School             Score      School              Score
      ================   =====      ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River          19      Beaver River         16
  2   Lafayette             86      Lafayette            71
  3   Weedsport            112      Weedsport           101
  4   Old Forge            127      Utica Notre Dame    105
  5   Pulaski              132      Old Forge           117
  6   Utica Notre Dame     138      Pulaski             154
  7   Cooperstown          177      Richfield Springs   162
  8   Richfield Springs    242
  9   Sandy Creek          278       all others INCOMPLETE
 10   Oriskany             290
 11   Remsen               295
 12   West Canada Valley   328
 13   Port Byron           390
 
Pre-Race Analysis ...  Beaver River should win easily (and that's all I need to write).

 

 

 The Final Girls Team Ranking Page for the 2001 Season (Nov 5, 2001)

 

 

 

 

 

 

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