Please READ THIS To Better
Understand The Speed Ratings:
Here are some things to remember ...
(1) the ratings shown below are a combination of the overall
seasonal performances of each runner [they consider more than just
the last race or two if I have enough of your invitational race
results], (2) head-to-head competitions are not
considered in any way ... the only consideration is how fast a
runner has run his or her races (3) duel meets are not
considered.
[Read
This Article for More Information] ... [And
this ... Speed Rating]
But here is the simplified
bottom-line of what my speed rating numbers mean: ... they are
really a measure of the probability (chance) of where runners will
finish within a group of runners. I know this sounds a bit abstract,
but I think some examples can demonstrate the meaning. Consider two
runners with identical speed ratings of 170 (or within a point or
two of each other) ... this means they have a 50/50 chance of
beating each within that group; if you ran the race 1000 times, each
runner would beat the other 500 times on average. When the
point-spread is 5 points, the runner with the higher rating has
roughly a 60/40 chance of beating the other ... so it doesn't
surprise me when a runner with the lower rating wins on occasion
because there's a chance it will happen! The underlying
concept of my method is: "Faster runners usually beat slower
runners". If I determine how fast you have run
relative to other runners, I can estimate your chances of winning. |