TullyRunners -  Article

 

Approximated World, USA and Collegiate 5K Track Speed Ratings

by Bill Meylan (March 20, 2021)

 

Based on suggestions, I thought it might be interesting to show approximated Speed Ratings for top world, USA and collegiate runners in comparison to top high school runners.  I have been asked numerous times over the years what the best runners in the world might achieve in terms of Speed Ratings ... So I decided to do it by approximating Speed Ratings for 5000 meter track results.

The tables below show approximated Speed Ratings for 5000 meter (5K) Track races based on correlation to high school cross country and track results ... The simple method is shown below.

The following considerations must be noted:

  • These are just approximations, but are probably decent enough

  • The approximations assume good running conditions

  • If running conditions are excellent, the approximations may be too high

  • If running conditions are poor, the approximations may be too low

  • Those familiar with TullyRunners XC Speed Ratings may find the approximations interesting

Sources of 5K Track times:
https://www.worldathletics.org/records/all-time-toplists/middlelong/5000-metres/outdoor/men/senior
https://www.worldathletics.org/records/all-time-toplists/middlelong/5000-metres/outdoor/women/senior
http://www.ustfccca.org/records-lists/outdoor-collegiate-all-time-bests?doing_wp_cron=1615215542.3836410045623779296875

 

 MEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some World & USA Best 5K Track Races
 
Men - World Best Outdoor 5K Track Marks

                                               Approximated
Runner                  Date          Time     Speed Rating
=====================  =======      ========   ------------
Joshua CHEPTEGEI       8/14/20      12:35.36   230.21   230
Kenenisa BEKELE        5/31/04      12:37.35   229.55   230
Haile GEBRSELASSIE     6/13/98      12:39.36   228.88   229
Daniel KOMEN           8/22/97      12:39.74   228.75   229
Selemon BAREGA         8/31/18      12:43.02   227.66   228
Hagos GEBRHIWET        8/31/18      12:45.82   226.73   227
Eliud KIPCHOGE         7/2/04       12:46.53   226.49   226
Yomif KEJELCHA         8/31/18      12:46.79   226.40   226
Dejen GEBREMESKEL      7/6/12       12:46.81   226.40   226
Sileshi SIHINE         7/2/04       12:47.04   226.32   226
Mohammed AHMED         7/10/20      12:47.20   226.27   226
Jacob KIPLIMO          9/8/20       12:48.63   225.79   226
Isiah Kiplangat KOECH  7/6/12       12:48.64   225.79   226
Isaac Kiprono SONGOK   8/18/06      12:48.66   225.78   226


Men - USA Best Outdoor 5K Track Marks

                                               Approximated
Runner                  Date          Time     Speed Rating
=====================  =======      ========   ------------
Bernard LAGAT          7/22/11      12:53.60   224.13   224
Chris SOLINSKY         8/6/10       12:55.53   223.49   223
Dathan RITZENHEIN      8/28/09      12:56.27   223.24   223
Paul CHELIMO           8/31/18      12:57.55   222.82   223
William KINCAID        9/10/19      12:58.10   222.63   223
Bob KENNEDY            8/14/96      12:58.21   222.60   223
Matt TEGENKAMP         9/4/09       12:58.56   222.48   222
Galen RUPP             6/2/12       12:58.90   222.37   222
			
 MEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some Collegiate Best 5K Track Races
 

Marks Outside Collegiate Season
                                                               Approximated
Runner            College              Date         Time       Speed Rating
================  =================   ==========   ========    ------------
Lawi LALANG       Arizona             7/19/2013    13:00.95    221.68   222
Eric JENKINS      Oregon              7/18/2015    13:07.33    219.56   220
Peter KOECH       Washington State    7/6/1982     13:09.50    218.83   219
Lawi LALANG       Arizona             8/28/2014    13:09.51    218.83   219
David KIMANI      Alabama             7/14/2001    13:10.29    218.57   219
Jonah KOECH       Iowa State          6/9/1993     13:10.95    218.35   218
Chris SOLINSKY    Wisconsin           7/14/2007    13:12.24    217.92   218
Alistair CRAGG    Arkansas            7/30/2004    13:12.74    217.75   218
Robert CHESERET   Arizona             6/29/2005    13:13.23    217.59   218
Mark CARROLL      Providence          6/17/1995    13:13.94    217.35   217
Ryan HILL         NC State            7/13/2013    13:14.22    217.26   217
Bill MCCHESNEY    Oregon              8/18/1982    13:14.80    217.07   217
Ian DOBSON        Stanford            6/24/2005    13:15.33    216.89   217
Henry RONO        Washington State    9/10/1978    13:15.5     216.83   217
Morgan MCDONALD   Wisconsin           7/22/2017    13:15.83    216.72   217
Will GEOGHEGAN    Oregon              7/18/2015    13:17.85    216.05   216
Cam LEVINS        Southern Utah       8/8/2012     13:18.29    215.90   216
Mo AHMED          Wisconsin           8/3/2014     13:18.88    215.71   216

OFFICIAL Collegiate Top Performers and Performances

Henry RONO        Washington State    4/8/1978     13:08.4     219.20   219
Diego ESTRADA     Northern Arizona    4/28/2013    13:15.33    216.89   217
Alistair CRAGG    Arkansas            4/30/2004    13:16.98    216.34   216
Justyn KNIGHT     Syracuse            5/5/2017     13:17.51    216.16   216
Lawi LALANG       Arizona             6/13/2014    13:18.36    215.88   216
Brent VAUGHN      Colorado            5/4/2008     13:18.46    215.85   216
Cam LEVINS        Southern Utah       4/19/2012    13:18.47    215.84   216
Eric JENKINS      Northeastern        4/28/2013    13:18.57    215.81   216
Edward CHESEREK   Oregon              6/13/2014    13:18.71    215.76   216
Morgan MCDONALD   Wisconsin           2/15/2018    13:19.05    215.65   216
			
 MEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some High School Best 5K Track Races
 

BOYS HS All-Time Best 5K Track Times (from Track & Field News)

                                     Approximated
Runner             Year    Time      Speed Rating
=================  ====   ========   ------------
Galen Rupp         2004   13:37.91   209.36   209
Gerry Lindgren     1964   13:44.00   207.33   207
Dathan Ritzenhein  2001   13:44.70   207.10   207
Nico Young         2020   13:50.55   205.15   205
覧覧Ritzenhein     2001   13:51.69   204.77   205
覧覧Rupp           2004   13:52.85   204.38   204
Steve Prefontaine  1969   13:52.80   204.40   204
覧覧Rupp           2004   13:55.32   203.56   204
John Zishka        1980   13:55.65   203.45   203
Chris Derrick      2008   13:55.96   203.35   203
			

 

 WOMEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some World & USA Best 5K Track Races
 

Women - World Best Outdoor 5K Track Marks

                                                   Approximated
Runner                      Date        Time       Speed Rating
=====================       =======    ========    ------------
Letesenbet GIDEY            10/7/20    14:06.62    200.79   201
Tirunesh DIBABA             6/6/08     14:11.15    199.28   199
Almaz AYANA                 6/2/16     14:12.59    198.80   199
Meseret DEFAR               7/22/08    14:12.88    198.71   199
Genzebe DIBABA              7/4/15     14:15.41    197.86   198
Hellen OBIRI                6/8/17     14:18.37    196.88   197
Agnes Jebet TIROP           7/21/19    14:20.68    196.11   196
Vivian Jepkemoi CHERUIYOT   7/29/11    14:20.87    196.04   196
Sifan HASSAN                7/21/19    14:22.12    195.63   196
Senbere TEFERI              7/13/18    14:23.33    195.22   195
Liliya SHOBUKHOVA           7/19/08    14:23.75    195.08   195
Shelby HOULIHAN             7/10/20    14:23.92    195.03   195
Elvan ABEYLEGESSE           6/11/04    14:24.68    194.77   195
Karissa SCHWEIZER           7/10/20    14:26.34    194.22   194

Women - USA Best Outdoor 5K Track Marks

Shelby HOULIHAN             7/10/20    14:23.92    195.03   195
Karissa SCHWEIZER           7/10/20    14:26.34    194.22   194
Shannon ROWBURY             9/9/16     14:38.92    190.03   190
Molly HUDDLE                7/18/14    14:42.64    188.79   189 (added)
Shalane FLANAGAN            4/13/07    14:44.80    188.07   188
Regina JACOBS               7/21/00    14:45.35    187.88   188
Elise CRANNY                6/30/20    14:48.02    186.99   187
Courtney FRERICHS           6/30/20    14:50.06    186.31   186
Deena KASTOR                8/1/00     14:51.62    185.79   186
Jennifer RHINES             6/6/08     14:54.29    184.90   185
Kara GOUCHER                9/16/07    14:55.02    184.66   185
Lisa UHL                    7/16/10    14:55.74    184.42   184
Emily SISSON                3/6/21     14:55.82    184.39   184
Amy RUDOLPH                 7/8/96     14:56.04    184.32   184
Annette HAND-PETERS         8/27/93    14:56.07    184.31   184
Jenny SIMPSON               8/29/13    14:56.26    184.25   184
Emily INFELD                7/22/17    14:56.33    184.22   184
Amy YODER BEGLEY            7/3/10     14:56.72    184.09   184
Allie BUCHALSKI             3/6/21     14:57.54    183.82   184
Elinor PURRIER              10/5/19    14:58.17    183.61   184
Lauren FLESHMAN             5/31/08    14:58.48    183.51   184
Marla RUNYAN                5/29/04    14:59.20    183.27   183
			
 WOMEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some Collegiate Best 5K Track Races
 
Marks Outside Collegiate Season
                                                                   Approximated
Runner                    College          Date         Time       Speed Rating
========================  =============   ==========   ========    ------------
Lisa KOLL                 Iowa State      7/16/2010    14:55.74    184.42   184
Jenny BARRINGER           Colorado        7/31/2009    15:05.25    181.25   181
Cathy BRANTA              Wisconsin       7/4/1985     15:07.56    180.48   180
Michelle SIKES            Wake Forest     6/22/2007    15:09.28    179.91   180
Lauren FLESHMAN           Stanford        8/26/2003    15:12.71    178.76   179
Marielle HALL             Texas           6/27/2014    15:12.79    178.74   179
Aisling CUFFE             Stanford        6/27/2014    15:13.15    178.62   179
Renee METIVIER            Colorado        7/23/2005    15:15.78    177.74   178
Molly HUDDLE              Notre Dame      7/25/2007    15:17.13    177.29   177
Karissa SCHWEIZER         Missouri        6/23/2017    15:18.69    176.77   177

OFFICIAL Top Performers and Performances

Jenny BARRINGER           Colorado        5/2/2009     15:07.64    180.45   180
Kim SMITH                 Providence      4/16/2004    15:09.72    179.76   180
Aisling CUFFE             Stanford        5/4/2014     15:11.13    179.29   179
Abbey D'AGOSTINO          Dartmouth       4/18/2013    15:11.35    179.22   179
Sally KIPYEGO             Texas Tech      4/18/2008    15:11.88    179.04   179
Betsy SAINA               Iowa State      3/29/2013    15:12.05    178.98   179
Michelle SIKES            Wake Forest     6/8/2007     15:16.76    177.41   177
Lisa KOLL                 Iowa State      5/1/2010     15:17.76    177.08   177
Jessica TONN              Stanford        5/2/2015     15:18.85    176.72   177
Aliphine TULIAMUK-BOLTON  Wichita State   3/29/2013    15:18.86    176.71   177
			
 WOMEN - Approximated Speed Ratings for Some High School Best 5K Track Races
 

GIRLS HS All-Time Best 5K Track Times (from Track & Field News)

                                     Approximated
Runner             Year    Time      Speed Rating
=================  ====   ========   ------------
Jenna Hutchins     2020   15:34.54** 171.51   172
Katelyn Tuohy      2018   15:37.12   170.63   171
Mary Cain          2013   15:45.46   167.85   168
Emily Sisson       2010   15:48.91   166.70   167
Cayla Hatton       2012   15:50.32   166.23   166
Caitlin Chock      2004   15:52.88   165.37   165
Brie Oakley        2017   15:55.75   164.42   164
Wesley Frazier     2013   15:55.94   164.35   164
Fiona O狸eeffe     2016   15:56.84   164.05   164
Cathy Schiro       1985   16:00.40   162.87   163
Weini Kelati       2016   16:08.83   160.06   160
 ** mark not yet added to T&FN Top 10 list
			

 

 
Method to Approximate a Speed Rating from a 5000 Meter Track Time

Equation for Men:

  Speed Rating  =  (1560 - (Race Time in seconds + 114)) / 3

Equation for Women:

  Speed Rating  =  (1560 - (Race Time in seconds + 111)) / 3


NOTE - General Equation for XC Speed Ratings:

  Speed Rating  =  (1560 - (Race Time in seconds + race adjustment)) / 3

Brief Explanation of the Equations:

The 1560 is the number of seconds in 26 minutes ... 26 minutes is the 0.00 point mark on the TullyRunners XC Speed Rating Scale where 3 seconds equals 1.00 point (the reason for the "divide by 3" in the equations.

The race adjustment for the men is 114 seconds ... The race adjustment for the women is 111 seconds ... These race adjustments were determined by data regression using high school XC speed ratings and corresponding 5000 meter track times as noted in the article at: http://www.tullyrunners.com/XC2020/Hutchins5KRating.htm

The race adjustment for XC races is derived by several different statistical methods ... The most important is a correlation using an existing database of prior speed ratings of individual runners in the race(s) being considered ... next is correlation with a data library of similar races and groups of similar runners ... If those methods are insufficient, then approximation using an historically derived inherent speed adjustment for the specific race course MAY be possible as a last resort.

 

 

Developed and maintained by wmeylan@twcny.rr.com