Speed Rating for Jenna Hutchins 5K Track Record (Dec 11, 2020)

by Bill Meylan (Dec 12, 2020)

Jenna Hutchins impressively set the US High School Girls 5000 Meter Track Record at the outdoor Five and Dime Athletics Meet in Columbia, SC on Dec 11, 2020 (Live Results Link) ... Jenna Hutchins ran 15:34.47 which broke the existing record of 15:37.12 set by Katelyn Tuohy at the indoor Virginia Showcase on Jan 20, 2018.

My approximation for Jenna's performance is a speed rating of 172 ... Below is additional information that explains where that estimate came from.

I have speed rated 5K track races in the past based on limited data and assumptions to yield "ball-park" approximations for the sake of curiosity ... The Covid-19 Pandemic of 2020 saw the Garden State Track Club (GSTC) in New Jersey and others to have 5K Track races for many high school XC runners in the Northeast region ... Among them was Brooke Rauber of Tully and other NYers which got my attention.

Enough runners of known ability did race head-to-head in these and other 5K Track races which led to a general speed rating "approximation" method which seems to work decently for estimation purposes ... This method was in place long before Jenna Hutchins ran her US 5K Track Record (15:34.47) ... I had discussed it with Kyle Brazeil of NY MileSplit who devised a simple calculator for the method.

In addition, I added some of the 5K Track speed ratings to my List of Highest National Speed Ratings so several Elite National runners would be included (because I thought they deserved some recognition) ... For example, Aidan Puffer ran 14:25 at a 5K Track race in NJ for a speed rating of 194, and that has been included in the list ever since ... So this method was not devised for the Jenna Hutchins performance, and her time simply reflects the speed rating outcome.

It is a simple calculation ... To devise the method, I took the early NJ 5K Track times and "fit" them with the prior season's speed ratings of individual runners to find a race adjustment (one method I apply to all early season XC races) ... and an adjustment of 114 seconds resulted ... so I simply added 114 seconds to the 5K Track times (assuming decent conditions for all races) and calculated the speed ratings the same as for XC ... a bit later (after contact with Kyle Brazeil and some additional results), I decided 111 seconds was a slightly better fit for the girls (which adds 1 speed rating point to the girls compared to the boys which is not unusual in XC races) ... That's where the speed ratings below came from.

Jenna Hutchins' 5K race included two other high school runners with prior seasonal speed ratings ... Carmen Alder was listed as finishing 3rd in the Live Results at 15:37.54, but that was her time with one lap to go (the results said she ran the final 400m in 0.23 seconds), but the video suggests the time listed below ... Jenna Hutchins' speed rating of 171.51 is consistent with her most recent XC seasonal speed ratings.

The estimated Track speed ratings of various girls this season can be compared to their seasonal XC speed ratings below ... and the correlation is decent.

Also included below are Estimated Speed Rating for the 10 fastest All-Time 5K Track times for both Girls & Boys with available XC speed ratings ... Again the correlation is decent (and they were not included in any method derivation).

Katelyn Tuohy's recent XC speed ratings entering her 15:37.12 5K Track race time (172, 170, 172, 167, 167) are quite consistent with the estimated Track speed rating of 170.63.

 

Five and Dime Meet SC - 5000 Meters on a Track (Dec 11, 2020)

                    Time       Speed Rating   (XC Seasonal Speed Ratings)
Jenna Hutchins      15:34.47   171.51   172   (167 168 171 156 151 158 165)
Carmen Alder **    ~16:54.00   145.00   145   (148 151 149)
Vanessa Alder       17:11.37   139.21   139   (125 134 130)
  ** Carmen Alder's time corrected


Various New Jersey / NY Track 5K (Sept-Oct 2020)

                    Time       Speed Rating   (XC Seasonal Speed Ratings)
Brooke Rauber       16:28.34   153.55   154   (156 160 156 150 159 157 157 145 144)
Brooke Rauber       16:32.62   152.13   152   (156 160 156 150 159 157 157 145 144)
Charlotte Bednar    16:21.67   155.78   156   (155 158)
Charlotte Bednar    16:25.90   154.37   154   (155 158)
Sydney Masciarelli  16:30.06   152.98   153   (151 153)
Sydney Masciarelli  16:40.18   149.61   150   (151 153)

Jenna Mulhern       16:40.46   149.51   150   (147)
Margot Appleton     16:57.44   143.85   144   (139)
Chloe Scrimgeour    16:58.86   143.38   143   (135 145 142)
McKinley Fielding   17:14.34   138.22   138   (135 138 137 131 134)
Katie Putman        17:18.41   136.86   137   (139 121 133 135 139 134 129 129)
Kathryn Altieri     17:20.80   136.07   136   (123 138)
Rose Coats          18:05.62   121.13   121   (128 135 125)
Gabby Putman        18:54.60   104.80   105   (99 104 106 103)


GIRLS All-Time Best 5K Track Times (from Track & Field News)

            Estimated
5K Time    Speed Rating                    Year   (XC Seasonal Speed Ratings)
15:37.12 - 170.63 - 171 - Katelyn Tuohy  - 2018 - (172 170 172 167 167 168 160 166 159 158)
15:45.46 - 167.85 - 168 - Mary Cain      - 2013 - (159 158 159 - best XC ratings)
15:48.91 - 166.70 - 167 - Emily Sisson   - 2010 - (162 155)
15:50.32 - 166.23 - 166 - Cayla Hatton   - 2012 - (no data)
15:52.88 - 165.37 - 165 - Caitlin Chock  - 2004 - (no data)
15:55.75 - 164.42 - 164 - Brie Oakley    - 2017 - (165 158 165 152)
15:55.94 - 164.35 - 164 - Wesley Frazier - 2013 - (149 123)
15:56.84 - 164.05 - 164 - Fiona O’Keeffe - 2016 - (156 152, injured late XC)
16:00.40 - 162.87 - 163 - Cathy Schiro   - 1985 - (169 174)
16:08.83 - 160.06 - 160 - Weini Kelati   - 2016 - (163 159 157 158 155 155)


BOYS All-Time Best 5K Track Times (from Track & Field News)

            Estimated
Time       Speed Rating                       Year (XC Seasonal Speed Ratings)
13:37.91 - 209.36 - 209 - Galen Rupp        - 2004 (207 201 197)
13:44.00 - 207.33 - 207 - Gerry Lindgren    - 1964 (no data)
13:44.70 - 207.10 - 207 - Dathan Ritzenhein - 2001 (214 207 211)
13:50.55 - 205.15 - 205 - Nico Young        - 2020 (205 202 201 197 201 197)
13:51.69 - 204.77 - 205 - ————Ritzenhein    - 2001 ---
13:52.85 - 204.38 - 204 - ————Rupp          - 2004 ---
13:52.80 - 204.40 - 204 - Steve Prefontaine - 1969 (no data)
13:55.32 - 203.56 - 204 - ————Rupp          - 2004 ---
13:55.65 - 203.45 - 203 - John Zishka       - 1980 (no data)
13:55.96 - 203.35 - 203 - Chris Derrick     - 2008 (208 205 201 ...)