[TullyRunners Home Page

[ National Boys Teams ]

National Pre-Season XC 2025

GIRLS Teams - National 2025

Bill Meylan (July 31, 2025)

 
  • Girls - Contending National Teams
  •  ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
  •  
  • Purpose
  •  ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
  •  
  • Ranking Method
  •  ... General extension of the 2024 XC season into 2025
  •  ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
  •  ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
  •  ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN National & Regional races or the RunningLane Championship
  •  ... Consider performance in championship races such as State Championships
  •  ... Initially, combine possible teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
  •  ... Eliminate 5-10 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
  •  ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors

Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2025 race results are what count.

NOTE ... Like last year, I manipulated selective "overall ratings" based on track performances.

I did add some Regional Projections based on all teams I considered.

 

 National GIRLS Teams 2025
 

 Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2025
 ... Note - Scores are based on a race simulations of 34 teams
 

                                                Average
                                                Scorer
                                                Speed
      School                   State   Score    Rating    NXN Region
      --------------------     -----   -----   --------   ----------
  1   Union Catholic            NJ      245     133.16    Northeast
  2   Lone Peak                 UT      267     131.15    Southwest
  3   Buchanan (CS)             CA      312     129.87    California
  4   Webb School of Knoxville  TN      315     130.56    Southeast
  5   Rogers                    AR      332     129.28    South
  6   Niwot                     CO      340     130.62    Southwest
  7   Wayzata                   MN      380     126.60    Heartland
  8   Fort Wayne Concordia Luth IN      385     126.23    Midwest
  9   Air Academy               CO      395     126.17    Southwest
  10  Shenendehowa              NY      395     125.81    New York
  11  Bethlehem                 NY      396     125.70    New York
  12  Pella                     IA      444     125.58    Heartland
  13  Romeo                     MI      444     124.41    Midwest
  14  Carmel                    IN      445     123.40    Midwest
  15  James W. Robinson         VA      446     123.90    Southeast
  16  Mountain Vista            CO      446     122.80    Southwest
  17  Trabuco Hills (SS)        CA      447     121.95    California
  18  JSerra Catholic (SS)      CA      451     121.81    California
  19  Harrisburg                SD      454     122.85    Heartland
  20  Sioux Falls Christian     SD      466     122.46    Heartland
  21  Padua Academy             DE      470     122.16    Southeast
  22  Bridgeland                TX      471     121.52    South
  23  Creekside HS              FL      475     121.80    Southeast
  24  West Springfield          VA      495     121.40    Southeast
  25  Flower Mound              TX      498     120.66    South
  26  Chaparral                 CO      508     120.31    Southwest
  27  Heritage                  CO      535     119.40    Southwest
  28  Chicago (St. Ignatius Col)IL      535     119.34    Midwest
  29  Crater                    OR      535     118.44    Northwest
  30  Rocky Mountain            ID      540     118.10    Northwest

 		
 
 
   The next group is basically in order following the list above ...
     It is sorted by Average Speed Rating of the five scorers of each
     team ... The two Northwest teams above (Crater & Rocky Mountain)
     had team scores close enough to get placed in the top 30 making
     every region represented with at least two teams except the
     Northeast (but Union Catholic is #1) ... Teams not listed were
     excluded for lack of XC data (my speed ratings) or XC data
     not high enough for inclusion ... Track data ALONE NOT used
     for ANY inclusions.


      Johnston                  IA    Heartland       118.71
      Smithson Valley           TX    South           118.60
      Saratoga Springs          NY    New York        118.45
      Del Norte (SD)            CA    California      118.17
      El Toro (SS)              CA    California      117.89
      Batavia                   IL    Midwest         117.36
      Whitney (SJ)              CA    California      117.23
      Champlain Valley Union    VT    Northeast       116.84
      York                      IL    Midwest         116.82
      St. Francis (CC)          CA    California      116.75
      Lake Central              IN    Midwest         116.70
      Northport                 NY    New York        116.44
      Westford Academy          MA    Northeast       116.44
      Santiago Corona (SS)      CA    California      116.42
      Boulder                   CO    Southwest       116.37
      Summit                    OR    Northwest       116.05
      Brentwood                 TN    Southeast       116.00
      Sehome                    WA    Northwest       115.92
      Guilderland               NY    New York        115.77
      Princeton HS              NJ    Northeast       115.60
      Saline                    MI    Midwest         115.50
      American Fork             UT    Southwest       115.47
      Tesoro (SS)               CA    California      115.30
      Boise Senior              ID    Northwest       115.15
      Mountain Brook HS         AL    Southeast       114.96
      Billerica Memorial        MA    Northeast       114.40
      Naperville North          IL    Midwest         113.82
      Homestead                 IN    Midwest         113.77
      Blacksburg                VA    Southeast       113.08
      Lexington                 MA    Northeast       113.00
      Forest Lake Area          MN    Heartland       112.86
      Fayetteville-Manlius      NY    New York        112.62
      Severna Park              MD    Southeast       112.40
      Fossil Ridge              CO    Southwest       112.16
      Piedmont                  OK    South           111.92
      Timberline (Boise)        ID    Northwest       111.78
      Bentonville               AR    South           111.60
      Lucas Lovejoy             TX    South           111.41
      Oak Ridge (SJ)            CA    California      111.25
      Southlake Carroll         TX    South           111.24
      Pleasant Valley           IA    Heartland       111.12
      Point Loma (SD)           CA    California      111.02
      Hanover HS                NH    Northeast       109.69
      The Woodlands             TX    South           109.40
      North Kingstown           RI    Northeast       108.67
      Cumberland                RI    Northeast       107.83
				
  • Where did the scores come from?
  •  ... 2024 Seasonal Speed Ratings
  •  ... Manual manipulation based on track results
  •  ... Manual manipulation based on Guessing
  • General Comments for the Coming Season
  •  
  •  ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
  •  ... Union Catholic and Lone Peak are the two favorites based on returning runners and speed ratings ... Union Catholic has slightly better projected speed ratings and return all 7 runners from NXN where they finished 10th last year ... Lone Peak finished 2nd at NXN last year and races very well at the NXN course (they return 6 of 7 runners) ... I'm sure many people will consider Lone Peak the favorite based on performance at NXN.
  •  
  • Most of the other highly ranked teams simply need to add one additional impact runner to be a contender.
  • Not surprising, 3 Southwest teams are in the top 9 and 6 in the top 27 ... The Southwest finished #1, #2, #4 and #8 at NXN last year.
  •  
  • Pre-season Ranking has some serious limitations:
  • ... Transfers (in/out), runners moving, runners no longer competing, injuries/sickness are generally unknown to me and are not factored into these rankings ... just a few transfers were used here ... so there are likely some errors in the runners used to derive some team scores and speed rating averages.
  • ... New runners may be known (and predictable) by people in local areas ... But not by me ... and it makes a difference.
  • ... Pre-season requires guessing ... it might be right or wrong ... and that is OK.
  • ... Pre-Season Rankings are only good for identifying teams of potential ability to watch once the season starts ... At this point, my method can exclude good teams that will be ranked throughout the XC season, BUT those teams can be identified during the season (which is much more important than pre-season).
  •  
  • ... Very little separates many of the lower-ranked teams ... Most ranking placement was determined by speed-rating simulations (which varied quite a bit) ... One new "good" runner on most teams or one scorer having an "off" race made a significant difference in ranking position ... So I made a Best-Guess.

 

Comments on the TOP 30 Teams:
 

Note - The overall incoming speed rating number (the first number for each runner below) is a based on last year's seasonal speed ratings (the numbers in the parentheses () that are in sequential order with the most recent first) ... PLUS manipulation by me looking at track performances for nearly all runners.

----------------------------------

#1 - Union Catholic Reg NJ ... Union Catholic finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year (and 10th in 2023) after winning NXR Northeast ... They return all 7 runners from NXN ... Some improved track performances were considered ... Union Catholic enters the 2025 XC season as the top-rated team ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

149 -- Paige Sheppard -- 11 -- ( 144 148 142 144 142 143 149 142 137 )
139 -- Cayleigh Kaiser -- 11 -- ( 131 140 132 128 138 132 134 131 )
136 -- Sophia Thompson -- 11 -- ( 126 132 137 131 118 127 )
124 -- Kayla Devine -- 11 -- ( 119 111 102 121 )
120 -- Emmy O'Hearn -- 12 -- ( 105 117 111 108 111 106 101 101 110 )
117 -- Ella Solorzano -- 12 -- ( 89 107 103 94 109 114 112 )
113 -- Jimmiea King -- 12 -- ( 112 110 114 )

#2 - Lone Peak UT ... Lone Peak finished 2nd at NXN Nationals last year and 4th at NXN in both 2023 and 2022 ... Lone Peak was 4th at NXR Southwest and were selected as an "At-Large" team to NXN Nationals (just like in 2023) ... They won the Utah State 6A race last year ... Lone Peak returns 5 of their top 6 runners including the top 3 ... They are a serious contender to win NXN in 2025 based on their recent performance record at NXN.... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

143 -- Maya Bybee -- 11 -- ( 143 138 134 134 137 137 129 )
131 -- Zoey Nilsson -- 12 -- ( 131 126 127 109 119 113 114 )
130 -- Brielle Nilsson -- 12 -- ( 136 126 117 108 118 117 )
129 -- Paytin Rohatinsky -- 11 -- ( 130 122 118 118 117 110 )
122 -- Anna Bybee -- 12 -- ( 122 110 119 114 109 113 108 )
114 -- Tatum Brewer -- 10 -- ( 106 118 103 113 105 )
114 -- Addyson Bergquist -- 12 -- ( 93 105 105 )

#3 - Buchanan (CS) CA ... Buchanan finished 3rd at NXN Nationals last year (after finishing 8th at NXN 2023 and 3rd at NXN 2022) ... Buchanan finished 2nd (to Trabuco Hills) in California State Merge last year ... They return 4 of 7 runners from those races, and all 4 returners were scorers including the top 2 scorers ... Buchanan races well at NXN and they have shown an ability to reload with some good new runners, and that make them a real contender to podium at NXN ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

137 -- Gaby Gutierrez -- 10 -- ( 134 137 134 132 127 110 )
136 -- Molly Sundgren -- 11 -- ( 133 139 125 134 125 116 )
134 -- Brooklyn Buckley -- 10 -- ( 134 132 132 132 130 130 )
130 -- Kynzlee Buckley -- 12 -- ( 128 130 129 132 127 122 )
113 -- Tayler Torosian -- 12 -- ( 113 )
104 -- Olivia Rea -- 10 -- ( 105 104 96 )
102 -- Lily Olsen -- 12 -- ( 97 91 )

#4 - Webb School of Knoxville TN ... Webb School of Knoxville finished 3rd at NXR Southeast last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals (and the same thing happened in 2023) ...however, they finished 20th at NXN Nationals in 2022 ... They return 5 of their top 6 from NXR Southeast (including the top 4 scorers and a very strong top 3) ... Webb School of Knoxville is potentially a definite national contender ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

145 -- Calysta Garmer -- 12 -- ( 133 132 131 135 121 117 132 )
145 -- Jazzlyn Garmer -- 12 -- ( 132 147 139 133 126 122 135 )
145 -- Carolina Areheart -- 12 -- ( 136 128 147 146 132 138 132 140 )
113 -- Emma Cissna -- 11 -- ( 114 111 103 84 )
105 -- Ariana Vargas -- 11 -- ( 99 98 94 81 93 )
98 -- Gaby BAINBRIDGE -- 11 -- ( 77 77 )
81 -- Audrey Cookston -- 12 -- ( 81 )

#5 - Rogers AR ... Rogers finished 4th at NXR South and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Arkansas State 6A race ... Rogers returns all 7 runners (including one of the top returning runners in the nation, Lilly Beshears) ... I credited this team with potential significant improvement based on improved track performances (probably more than any other team) ... I might or might not be right ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

152 -- Lilly Beshears -- 12 -- ( 149 148 152 154 149 150 152 140 )
126 -- Elizabeth Scudder -- 11 -- ( 103 101 115 111 113 )
124 -- Samantha Schmersahl -- 12 -- ( 112 122 119 120 120 )
123 -- Anna Scudder -- 11 -- ( 87 98 108 105 102 )
122 -- Katherine Scudder -- 11 -- ( 105 104 109 112 )
108 -- Kayla Eggers -- 11 -- ( 98 93 106 )
102 -- Hattie Ray Beshears -- 10 -- ( 93 103 78 104 )

#6 - Niwot CO ... Niwot finished 6th at NXR Southwest last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... However, Niwot finished a very good 2nd to Air Academy at NXN Nationals 2023 and 2nd to Saratoga Springs at NXN Nationals in 2022, so Niwot can race very well at NXN ... Last year, Niwot finished 5th at the Colorado State 5A race ... They return 6 of 7 runners including the top 3 ... Niwot typically has some team depth and could re-load enough to be competitive (and I'm giving them credit for that) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

156 -- Addison Ritzenhein -- 12 -- ( 158 155 157 146 152 148 140 144 )
139 -- Anna Prok -- 12 -- ( 139 139 124 122 132 128 123 127 )
130 -- Elise Hagen -- 11 -- ( 128 127 118 110 123 127 107 110 )
120 -- Avalon Beltran -- 12 -- ( 108 102 103 89 )
108 -- Eloise Boyd -- 11 -- ( 90 91 93 92 90 71 88 )
105 -- Scarlett Parks -- 11 -- ( 101 99 105 117 105 100 97 )
102 -- Wendy Cheruiyot -- 11 -- ( 105 99 55 )

#7 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata finished 9th at NXN Nationals last year after winning NXR Heartland ... Wayzata finished 21st at NXN Nationals 2023 ... They return 5 of 7 runners from NXR and NXN including the top 4 from NXN ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

143 -- Maddie Gullickson -- 12 -- ( 142 142 137 134 130 133 131 128 )
133 -- Lila Golomb -- 12 -- ( 128 137 131 132 126 127 125 128 )
129 -- Jazleen Malherek-Osorio -- 12 -- ( 118 119 121 113 107 94 )
120 -- Miley Clark -- 12 -- ( 121 120 119 116 109 105 106 102 )
108 -- Aubrey Smith -- 11 -- ( 107 110 102 98 )
101 -- Addison Neitz -- 12 -- ( 100 104 93 98 82 )
100 -- Raychel Tong -- 12 -- ( 100 91 91 81 )

#8 - Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran IN ... Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran finished 4th at NXR Midwest last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 2nd at the Indiana State Meet and return their top 6 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

147 -- Mallory Weller -- 12 -- ( 140 140 144 151 147 131 128 )
135 -- Daphne Weller -- 10 -- ( 112 131 132 121 122 104 )
123 -- Brylee Crass -- 11 -- ( 115 112 119 118 104 )
114 -- Maddie Gentz -- 11 -- ( 118 111 111 89 96 87 )
112 -- Lilly Schlicker -- 12 -- ( 112 107 112 113 100 107 103 )
111 -- Hannah Clark -- 12 -- ( 107 110 113 102 106 96 )
106 -- Riley Zent -- 10 -- ( 85 85 76 )

#9 - Air Academy CO ... Air Academy finished 4th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 2nd at NXR Southwest ... Air Academy won NXN Nationals 2023 ... they return 5 of 7 runners from NXN Nationals and NXR (including 4 of the scorers) ... Air Academy returns some very good runners, they race well at NXR and NXN, and must be considered a contender ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

143 -- Chamorra Cooper -- 11 -- ( 144 143 139 129 127 117 128 121 115 )
137 -- Jordan Banta -- 12 -- ( 136 137 129 124 131 136 136 129 123 )
128 -- Mariah Hook -- 11 -- ( 134 126 116 115 109 122 115 99 )
113 -- Lauren Myers -- 12 -- ( 112 112 110 115 )
110 -- Isabella Haas -- 11 -- ( 82 110 )
100 -- Madeline Pool -- 11 -- ( 97 89 98 79 85 104 97 91 66 62 )

#10 - Shenedehowa NY ... Shenedehowa finished 17th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 2nd (to Bethlehem) at NXR New York ... They return 6 of 7 including all 5 scorers from NXN ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

142 -- Leyla Bhusri -- 12 -- ( 132 142 141 140 140 137 139 132 )
129 -- Courtney Krawiecki -- 12 -- ( 113 121 120 122 109 120 129 118 )
121 -- Raquelle Landa -- 12 -- ( 107 105 107 109 117 121 105 )
119 -- Anna McGaffin -- 10 -- ( 108 96 108 119 117 111 )
118 -- Riley Lynch -- 10 -- ( 113 102 113 115 118 95 )
87 -- Moira Glynn -- 12 -- ( 63 66 74 79 69 87 53 )
77 -- Eva Bronzell -- 11 -- ( 34 50 77 72 75 )

#11 - Bethlehem NY ... Bethlehem finished a very good 5th at NXN Nationals last year ... Bethlehem was 11th at NXN 2023 and 17th at NXN 2022 ... They won NXR New York last year ... They return 5 of 7 runners from NXN Nationals and NXR, including 3 runners with speed ratings in the 130s ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

138 -- Sophia Chromczak -- 9 -- ( 133 134 137 131 135 129 138 129 118 )
137 -- Logan Kuhn -- 12 -- ( 129 131 137 135 133 128 130 128 122 )
133 -- Anna Chrapowitzky -- 11 -- ( 124 126 133 132 133 129 130 128 119 )
111 -- Tess McNamara -- 10 -- ( 109 97 108 111 108 111 106 91 105 )
110 -- Sidney Graham -- 10 -- ( 110 99 109 102 107 106 96 105 91 )
99 -- Lillian Masters -- 11 -- ( 89 76 99 85 92 )
93 -- Ruby O'Meara -- 11 -- ( 93 87 75 )

#12 - Pella IA ... Pella finished 4th at NXR Heartland and did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... One of their top runners was not 100% at NXR Heartland (had a speed rating of 87 when she been in the 130s) ... Pella returns 6 of 7 runners, including the top 3 from their winning Iowa State Meet team ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

157 -- Marissa Ferebee -- 12 -- ( 158 158 159 154 145 147 146 140 141 )
130 -- Elsie Brenneman -- 11 -- ( 87 130 136 134 132 131 128 124 )
122 -- Ruth Dunham -- 11 -- ( 122 121 115 117 108 103 109 93 )
113 -- Lizzy VandeVoort -- 10 -- ( 119 107 106 102 99 96 106 )
106 -- Carleigh Altwine -- 10 -- ( 108 108 99 102 97 96 91 )
88 -- Lizzie Neumann -- 12 -- ( 88 80 94 79 69 84 84 55 )
87 -- Dana McCulla -- 10 -- ( 85 89 87 83 )

#13 - Romeo MI ... Romeo finished a very good 6th at NXN Nationals last year ... they were a close 2nd at NXR Midwest (losing by 1 point to Downers Grove North and beating Carmel by 3 points ... They won the Michigan State Division 1 Championship (by 82 points) ... Romeo returns 4 of 7 runners and they need a #5 scorer ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]:

140 -- Annie Hrabovsky -- 11 -- ( 142 131 132 121 126 )
135 -- Natalia Guaresimo -- 12 -- ( 130 123 134 133 125 130 )
126 -- Ella Goodsell -- 12 -- ( 109 109 115 106 102 96 )
118 -- Emmerson Clor -- 12 -- ( 117 115 121 109 118 114 )
103 -- Reese Rosbolt -- 11 -- ( 88 96 86 )
75 -- Ella Thibodeau -- 11 -- ( 58 70 67 )
50 -- Lydia Scally -- 11 -- ( 44 )

#14 - Carmel IN ... Carmel finished 15th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing a close 3rd at NXR Midwest (and the being selected as an NXN "At Large" team) ... Carmel beat Fort Wayne Concordia Luthern at the Indiana State Meet ... They return 4 of 7 runners from those races, but they were their top 4 scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

136 -- Annabel Pollert -- 11 -- ( 121 129 128 123 117 121 116 113 117 100 )
132 -- Sadie Foley -- 12 -- ( 119 127 130 126 125 117 118 121 118 )
132 -- Larkin Taylor -- 11 -- ( 121 127 130 113 115 116 112 114 113 )
115 -- MARGO HALLE -- 10 -- ( 112 115 117 92 115 111 105 108 98 )
102 -- Kaitlyn Oshimura -- 12 -- ( 90 77 97 96 92 88 )
100 -- Ella Weaver -- 10 -- ( 86 90 75 73 86 42 )
92 -- Lilliana Cate -- 12 -- ( 87 79 88 90 79 80 69 )

#15 - James W. Robinson VA ... James W. Robinson finished 5th at NXR Southeast and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... James W. Robinson won the Virginia State Class 6 race in a tie-breaker over West Springfield ... James W. Robinson returns all runners from the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

135 -- Karina Bird -- 11 -- ( 133 130 128 136 127 )
130 -- Petra Gruendel -- 10 -- ( 119 124 134 131 116 )
129 -- Ariana Lopez -- 12 -- ( 129 126 119 127 118 )
124 -- Alexandra Bird -- 11 -- ( 125 119 121 121 115 )
102 -- Charlotte Movsessian -- 12 -- ( 97 98 88 89 84 )
102 -- Isabella Willard -- 11 -- ( 66 75 72 )
84 -- Madison Coutinho -- 12 -- ( 84 84 77 82 )

#16 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista won NXN Nationals last year (and were 3rd at NXN Nationals 2023) ... They won NXR Southwest handily last year ...  They return only 2 of 7 runners from those races ... Mountain Vista has some depth and returns some talented runners ... I won't be surprised if they exceed this ranking number ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

141 -- Claire Guiberson -- 12 -- ( 144 145 139 133 130 122 123 116 )
132 -- Brenna Jorde -- 12 -- ( 123 127 126 123 118 128 121 108 )
116 -- Carly Christians -- 12 -- ( 117 104 104 109 103 104 85 )
114 -- Addison Baker -- 10 -- ( 113 92 116 101 101 )
111 -- Kaylie Kast -- 11 -- ( 111 108 110 103 104 94 )
106 -- Addi Twete -- 12 -- ( 100 102 99 98 )
102 -- Payton Mathelier -- 11 -- ( 92 74 103 83 91 62 64 )

#17 - Trabuco Hills (SS) CA ... Trabuco Hills (SS) finished 7th at NXN Nationals last year ... Trabuco finished 1st in the California State Meet Merge ... They graduated 2 scoring senior runners and are losing their top freshmen runner (Evangeline Williams) to transfer ... However some quality runners are returning, but it appears they need a #5 scorer (so I guessed a modest new runner) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

144 -- Millie Bayles -- 12 -- ( 141 142 151 133 147 139 )
134 -- Anna Desormeau -- 12 -- ( 118 139 132 127 130 )
119 -- Skylar Watts -- 12 -- ( 103 120 114 106 119 116 )
115 -- Violet Pinter -- 11 -- ( 85 103 103 91 87 102 )
102 -- New Runner -- 9 -- ( 102 )
87 -- Kayla Skinner -- 12 -- ( 89 80 81 )

#18 - JSerra Catholic (SS) CA ... JSerra Catholic finished 16th at NXN Nationals last year (they were 13th at NXN in 2023 and 21st at NXN in 2022) ... They finished 3rd in the California State Meet Merge last year ... JSerra Catholic returns 6 of 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

133 -- Chloe Elbaz -- 12 -- ( 120 138 126 117 126 104 128 )
127 -- Reese Holley -- 11 -- ( 104 129 123 121 127 )
122 -- Kaia Streadbeck -- 10 -- ( 114 121 116 113 124 107 125 )
119 -- Hayden Kroger -- 11 -- ( 109 119 105 96 121 89 128 )
107 -- Sophie Tonks -- 11 -- ( 107 )
106 -- Kaylah Tasser -- 12 -- ( 87 97 89 111 112 106 115 )
104 -- Hutton Nelligan -- 11 -- ( 93 103 100 99 113 111 )

#19 - Harrisburg SD ... Harrisburg finished 5th at NXR Heartland and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... Harrisburg won the South Dakota Class AA race ... They return their top 6 runners from NXR and State ... like other teams here, their #5 scorer is important ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

145 -- Brianna Reilly -- 8 -- ( 145 146 137 135 )
143 -- Hannah Genrich -- 9 -- ( 144 142 137 132 )
117 -- Autumn Gilhooly -- 9 -- ( 118 106 93 90 )
116 -- Addison Reilly -- 10 -- ( 117 115 107 95 )
93 -- Sarah Gilhooly -- 11 -- ( 88 75 51 74 )
84 -- Verity Kocmick -- 11 -- ( 85 86 68 57 )
64 -- Claire McCallum -- 11 -- ( 65 63 )

#20 - Sioux Falls Christian SD ... Sioux Falls Christian finished 5th at NXR Heartland (only 5 runners competed) and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... Sioux Falls Christian won the South Dakota Class A race ... They all 6 runners from the State Meet return ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

131 -- Jerica Glasser -- 12 -- ( 127 120 116 115 113 )
130 -- Ellie Maddox -- 12 -- ( 123 118 121 127 )
129 -- Sadie Pettengill -- 10 -- ( 129 120 123 120 127 )
118 -- Natalie Smith -- 12 -- ( 124 114 93 114 119 )
104 -- Bailey VanderGriend -- 12 -- ( 106 95 84 86 )
101 -- Maxine Ordway -- 8 -- ( 87 )
101 -- Bryn Barker -- 9 -- ( 88 )

#21 - Padua Academy DE ... Padua Academy finished 7th at NXR Southeast and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Delaware State D1 race last year ... They return 6 of 7 runners from those races (including the top 3 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

145 -- Anna Bockius -- 12 -- ( 136 140 127 122 )
134 -- Paige Ballinger -- 10 -- ( 122 134 127 )
114 -- Vera Cincilla -- 10 -- ( 95 108 83 )
113 -- Mary Drost -- 12 -- ( 114 113 105 92 )
105 -- Teresina DeAscanis -- 12 -- ( 89 104 83 91 )
95 -- Leah Campbell -- 10 -- ( 86 84 76 )
58 -- Elena Pettineo -- 12 -- ( 60 45 )

#22 - Bridgeland TX ... Bridgeland finished 3rd at NXR South and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the RunningLane Championship Gold Race and were 2nd in the Texas State 6A race ... they return 6 of 7 from State Meet race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

144 -- Rowan Saacke -- 12 -- ( 138 140 131 134 )
124 -- Susana Rawls -- 12 -- ( 124 119 125 101 )
114 -- Alexandra Montgomery -- 12 -- ( 94 107 86 )
113 -- Haley Hill -- 12 -- ( 113 100 111 105 )
113 -- Kate Garrison -- 11 -- ( 95 112 103 92 )
110 -- Brynlee Weston -- 11 -- ( 111 94 87 80 )
90 -- Sydney Parlevliet -- 12 -- ( 74 )

#23 - Creekside FL ... Creekside did not compete in NXR Southeast last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Florida State 4A race last year and return all 7 runners from that race ... At the time of this writing, the Florida State Meet is on the same day as NXR Southeast ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

134 -- Alyson Johnson -- 12 -- ( 123 134 129 )
133 -- Sydney Johnson -- 10 -- ( 130 126 117 )
121 -- Sarah Rose -- 12 -- ( 120 112 97 )
113 -- Hadleigh Roberts -- 10 -- ( 111 103 89 )
109 -- Emily Kate Longmire -- 11 -- ( 104 100 62 )
100 -- Kaitlyn Chapman -- 10 -- ( 96 89 60 )
99 -- Abigail Clark -- 11 -- ( 99 72 81 )

#24 - West Springfield VA ... West Sprinfield finished 4th at NXR Southeast and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They lost a tie-breaker (to James W. Robinson) in the Virginia State 6A race ... they return 4 of 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

137 -- Allie Horner -- 11 -- ( 133 129 129 124 108 )
131 -- Reagan Leone -- 11 -- ( 131 129 121 113 )
128 -- Rickelle Bush -- 12 -- ( 126 128 118 120 100 )
107 -- Marie Campbell -- 12 -- ( 98 103 103 88 )
104 -- Anna Johnson -- 10 -- ( 87 76 )
104 -- Kaydence Wisner -- 12 -- ( 84 52 )
73 -- Madeleine McCroskey -- 11 -- ( 73 )

#25 - Flower Mound TX ... Flower Mound finished 14th at NXN Nationals last year (and 17th at NXN 2023 and 6th at NXN 2022) ... Flower Mound won  NXR South handily and was the Texas UIL 6A State Champion ... They return 5 of 7 runners from those races (but lose 2 good scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

139 -- Adeline Bennett -- 11 -- ( 131 137 137 134 136 120 121 114 )
125 -- Liana Cluley-Garza -- 11 -- ( 103 127 112 121 129 116 112 109 )
119 -- Keira Primer -- 12 -- ( 112 115 121 118 119 102 113 106 )
113 -- Mckayla Kohutek -- 12 -- ( 101 90 87 99 106 101 104 97 )
108 -- Megan Schmidt -- 11 -- ( 91 79 85 91 86 )
107 -- Eliana Rivera -- 11 -- ( 85 104 109 93 105 97 100 94 )
92 -- Annalise Murray -- 12 -- ( 94 76 82 )

#26 - Chapparral CO ... Chapparral CO finished 5th at NXR Southwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 4th (to Mountain Vista, Air Academy & Fossill Ridge) at the Colorado State 5A race ... They return 6 of 7 runners scorers from NXR and the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

131 -- Kapri Parry -- 12 -- ( 128 130 122 125 126 106 )
127 -- Sky St Louis -- 10 -- ( 122 129 124 130 116 120 )
122 -- Hayden Parry -- 12 -- ( 123 118 122 116 122 117 102 )
112 -- Sutton Persichina -- 11 -- ( 111 105 113 105 114 109 92 )
110 -- Swede Sabey -- 12 -- ( 102 97 95 99 97 91 )
110 -- Abbie Parry -- 10 -- ( 97 91 64 77 65 45 )

#27 - Heritage CO ... Heritage finished 12th at NXR Southwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 8th at the Colorado State 5A race ... They return all runners from NXR and the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

142 -- Emry Schwalm -- 12 -- ( 131 137 136 138 135 124 )
140 -- Caroline Fender -- 12 -- ( 135 138 132 132 129 116 )
114 -- Scout DeStephano -- 10 -- ( 117 112 92 99 99 96 86 )
105 -- Lilly Brooks -- 12 -- ( 98 106 97 99 89 88 )
96 -- Jane Curran -- 11 -- ( 76 96 79 85 71 72 78 )
91 -- McKenna Alackness -- 10 -- ( 91 65 )
84 -- Lainey Krause -- 10 -- ( 84 90 65 80 63 63 30 )

#28 - Chicago (St. Ignatius Col Prep) IL ... Chicago (St. Ignatius Col Prep) finished 12th at NXR Midwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... they won the Illinois State 2A race ... they return 6 of 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

142 -- Annika Swan -- 12 -- ( 113 142 145 135 133 )
133 -- Allison Shutler -- 10 -- ( 122 126 126 )
115 -- Greta Sheaffer -- 10 -- ( 106 116 98 96 )
103 -- Aurora Steinhofer -- 10 -- ( 88 107 87 54 )
103 -- Elle Sheaffer -- 11 -- ( 100 56 98 97 )
83 -- Katherine McAllister -- 12 -- ( 84 78 )
80 -- Olivia Brophy -- 10 -- ( 69 86 66 )

#29 - Crater OR ... Crater finished 9th at NXR Northwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Oregon State 5A race ... they return all 6 finishers from NXR and 6 of 7 from the State Meet ... Some runners were given credit for track performances which helped their ranking ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

133 -- Brynn Davenport -- 11 -- ( 116 124 120 117 105 )
122 -- Mari Dunlap -- 10 -- ( 111 117 110 105 92 )
120 -- Reese Garnica -- 12 -- ( 111 109 114 117 107 )
113 -- Haddie Barsalou -- 11 -- ( 96 95 111 115 101 )
104 -- Gwendolyn VanWart -- 11 -- ( 55 88 66 )
102 -- Grace Havniear -- 11 -- ( 98 106 83 51 )
90 -- Hannah Pygman -- 12 -- ( 86 63 )

#30 - Rocky Mountain ID ... Rocky Mountain finished 18th at NXN Nationals after they won NXR Northwest ... They return 4 of 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]:

134 -- Hallie Heemeyer -- 12 -- ( 129 132 129 131 125 117 108 113 )
129 -- Brooke Thompson -- 11 -- ( 99 122 120 121 105 109 102 100 )
115 -- Makelle Carlson -- 10 -- ( 107 112 115 113 101 75 )
114 -- Eve Archibald -- 10 -- ( 98 85 81 91 86 84 83 76 )
99 -- Rachel Wren -- 10 -- ( 71 64 57 61 )
98 -- Solana LUCAS -- 11 -- ( 91 79 82 73 79 )
95 -- Eden Fails -- 10 -- ( 77 64 )

 

 

 Girls Pre-Season Regional Projections 2025

 

  • Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception)
  •  
  • The list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2024 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams based on my Speed Ratings.
  •  
  • I needed to find enough data on enough returning XC runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams were excluded) ...
  •  
  • I do not believe it is worth spending too much time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good nationally (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... My pre-season lists simply help me identify teams that might need to be followed.

 

 

** Team Scores calculated using just the teams from that Region

                                            Average
                                 Estimated  Scorer
                                   Team     Speed
                             St    Score    Rating    NXN Region
                            ====   =====   ========   ==========
California
   Buchanan (CS)             CA      60     129.87    California
   JSerra Catholic (SS)      CA     110     121.81    California
   Trabuco Hills (SS)        CA     112     121.95    California
   Del Norte (SD)            CA     132     118.17    California
   El Toro (SS)              CA     136     117.89    California
   Whitney (SJ)              CA     148     117.23    California
   St. Francis (CC)          CA     144     116.75    California
   Santiago Corona (SS)      CA     170     116.42    California
   Tesoro (SS)               CA     181     115.30    California
   Oak Ridge (SJ)            CA     194     111.25    California
   Point Loma (SD)           CA     197     111.02    California

Heartland
   Wayzata                   MN      66     126.60    Heartland
   Pella                     IA      77     125.58    Heartland
   Harrisburg                SD      88     122.85    Heartland
   Sioux Falls Christian     SD      74     122.46    Heartland
   Johnston                  IA      93     118.71    Heartland
   Forest Lake Area          MN     123     112.86    Heartland
   Pleasant Valley           IA     129     111.12    Heartland

Midwest
   Fort Wayne Concordia Luth IN      95     126.23    Midwest
   Romeo                     MI     110     124.41    Midwest
   Carmel                    IN     113     123.40    Midwest
   Chicago (St. Ignatius Col)IL     150     119.34    Midwest
   Barrington                IL     151     119.56    Midwest
   Batavia                   IL     155     117.36    Midwest
   York                      IL     155     116.82    Midwest
   Lake Central              IN     155     116.70    Midwest
   Saline                    MI     166     115.50    Midwest
   Naperville North          IL     176     113.82    Midwest
   Homestead                 IN     165     113.77    Midwest

New York (see NY Girls Projection Page)
   Shenendehowa              NY      85     125.81    New York
   Bethlehem                 NY     100     125.70    New York
   Saratoga Springs          NY     130     118.45    New York
   Guilderland               NY     190     116.44    New York
   Northport                 NY     190     115.77    New York
   Fayetteville-Manlius      NY     210     112.62    New York
     *** (NY scores based on a 30 team simulation)

Northeast
   Union Catholic           NJ       39     133.16    Northeast
   Champlain Valley Union   VT      109     116.84    Northeast
   Princeton HS             NJ      113     115.60    Northeast
   Westford Academy         MA      115     116.44    Northeast
   Billerica Memorial       MA      120     114.40    Northeast
   Lexington                MA      132     113.00    Northeast
   Hanover HS               NH      164     109.69    Northeast
   North Kingstown          RI      155     108.67    Northeast
   Cumberland               RI      154     107.83    Northeast

Northwest
   Crater                   OR       71     118.44    Northwest
   Rocky Mountain           ID       71     118.10    Northwest
   Summit                   OR       77     116.05    Northwest
   Sehome                   WA       77     115.92    Northwest
   Boise Senior             ID       82     115.15    Northwest
   Timberline (Boise)       ID       96     111.78    Northwest

South
   Rogers                   AR       43     129.28    South
   Flower Mound             TX       88     120.66    South
   Bridgeland               TX       89     121.52    South
   Smithson Valley          TX       96     118.60    South
   Bentonville              AR      143     111.60    South
   Piedmont                 OK      148     111.92    South
   Lucas Lovejoy            TX      150     111.41    South
   Southlake Carroll        TX      155     111.24    South
   The Woodlands            TX      165     109.40    South

Southeast
   Webb School of Knoxville TN       70     130.56    Southeast
   James W. Robinson        VA       95     123.90    Southeast
   Padua Academy            DE      102     122.16    Southeast
   Creekside HS             FL      103     121.80    Southeast
   West Springfield         VA      108     121.40    Southeast
   Brentwood                TN      131     116.00    Southeast
   Mountain Brook HS        AL      138     114.96    Southeast
   Blacksburg               VA      141     113.08    Southeast
   Severna Park             MD      145     112.40    Southeast

Southwest
   Lone Peak                UT       61     131.15    Southwest
   Niwot                    CO       88     130.62    Southwest
   Air Academy              CO       97     126.17    Southwest
   Mountain Vista           CO      109     122.80    Southwest
   Chaparral                CO      122     120.31    Southwest
   Heritage                 CO      140     119.40    Southwest
   Boulder                  CO      141     116.37    Southwest
   American Fork            UT      159     115.47    Southwest
   Fossil Ridge             CO      178     112.16    Southwest