National Pre-Season XC 2025 GIRLS Teams - National 2025 Bill Meylan (July 31, 2025) |
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Once
the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2025 race results are what count. NOTE ...
Like last year, I manipulated selective "overall ratings" based on track
performances. I did add some Regional Projections based on all teams I considered.
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National GIRLS Teams 2025 | ||
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2025 ... Note - Scores are based on a race simulations of 34 teams
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Comments on the TOP 30 Teams: | ||
Note - The overall incoming speed rating number (the first number for each runner below) is a based on last year's seasonal speed ratings (the numbers in the parentheses () that are in sequential order with the most recent first) ... PLUS manipulation by me looking at track performances for nearly all runners. ---------------------------------- #1 - Union Catholic Reg NJ ... Union Catholic finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year (and 10th in 2023) after winning NXR Northeast ... They return all 7 runners from NXN ... Some improved track performances were considered ... Union Catholic enters the 2025 XC season as the top-rated team ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 149 -- Paige Sheppard -- 11 -- ( 144 148
142 144 142 143 149 142 137 ) #2 - Lone Peak UT ... Lone Peak finished 2nd at NXN Nationals last year and 4th at NXN in both 2023 and 2022 ... Lone Peak was 4th at NXR Southwest and were selected as an "At-Large" team to NXN Nationals (just like in 2023) ... They won the Utah State 6A race last year ... Lone Peak returns 5 of their top 6 runners including the top 3 ... They are a serious contender to win NXN in 2025 based on their recent performance record at NXN.... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 143 -- Maya Bybee -- 11 -- ( 143 138 134
134 137 137 129 ) #3 - Buchanan (CS) CA ... Buchanan finished 3rd at NXN Nationals last year (after finishing 8th at NXN 2023 and 3rd at NXN 2022) ... Buchanan finished 2nd (to Trabuco Hills) in California State Merge last year ... They return 4 of 7 runners from those races, and all 4 returners were scorers including the top 2 scorers ... Buchanan races well at NXN and they have shown an ability to reload with some good new runners, and that make them a real contender to podium at NXN ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 137 -- Gaby Gutierrez -- 10 -- ( 134 137
134 132 127 110 ) #4 - Webb School of Knoxville TN ... Webb School of Knoxville finished 3rd at NXR Southeast last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals (and the same thing happened in 2023) ...however, they finished 20th at NXN Nationals in 2022 ... They return 5 of their top 6 from NXR Southeast (including the top 4 scorers and a very strong top 3) ... Webb School of Knoxville is potentially a definite national contender ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 145 -- Calysta Garmer -- 12 -- ( 133 132
131 135 121 117 132 ) #5 - Rogers AR
... Rogers finished 4th at NXR South and did not compete
at NXN Nationals ... They won the Arkansas State 6A race ...
Rogers returns all 7 runners (including one of the top returning
runners in the nation, Lilly Beshears) ... I credited this team with
potential significant improvement based on improved track performances
(probably more than any other team) ... I might or might not be right 152 -- Lilly Beshears -- 12 -- ( 149 148
152 154 149 150 152 140 ) #6 - Niwot CO ... Niwot finished 6th at NXR Southwest last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... However, Niwot finished a very good 2nd to Air Academy at NXN Nationals 2023 and 2nd to Saratoga Springs at NXN Nationals in 2022, so Niwot can race very well at NXN ... Last year, Niwot finished 5th at the Colorado State 5A race ... They return 6 of 7 runners including the top 3 ... Niwot typically has some team depth and could re-load enough to be competitive (and I'm giving them credit for that) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 156 -- Addison Ritzenhein -- 12 -- ( 158
155 157 146 152 148 140 144 ) #7 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata finished 9th at NXN Nationals last year after winning NXR Heartland ... Wayzata finished 21st at NXN Nationals 2023 ... They return 5 of 7 runners from NXR and NXN including the top 4 from NXN ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 143 -- Maddie Gullickson -- 12 -- ( 142
142 137 134 130 133 131 128 ) #8 - Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran IN ... Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran finished 4th at NXR Midwest last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 2nd at the Indiana State Meet and return their top 6 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 147 -- Mallory Weller -- 12 -- ( 140 140
144 151 147 131 128 ) #9 - Air Academy CO ... Air Academy finished 4th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 2nd at NXR Southwest ... Air Academy won NXN Nationals 2023 ... they return 5 of 7 runners from NXN Nationals and NXR (including 4 of the scorers) ... Air Academy returns some very good runners, they race well at NXR and NXN, and must be considered a contender ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 143 -- Chamorra Cooper -- 11 -- ( 144 143
139 129 127 117 128 121 115 ) #10 - Shenedehowa NY ... Shenedehowa finished 17th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 2nd (to Bethlehem) at NXR New York ... They return 6 of 7 including all 5 scorers from NXN ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 142 -- Leyla Bhusri -- 12 -- ( 132 142
141 140 140 137 139 132 ) #11 - Bethlehem NY ... Bethlehem finished a very good 5th at NXN Nationals last year ... Bethlehem was 11th at NXN 2023 and 17th at NXN 2022 ... They won NXR New York last year ... They return 5 of 7 runners from NXN Nationals and NXR, including 3 runners with speed ratings in the 130s ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 138 -- Sophia Chromczak -- 9 -- ( 133 134
137 131 135 129 138 129 118 ) #12 - Pella IA ... Pella finished 4th at NXR Heartland and did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... One of their top runners was not 100% at NXR Heartland (had a speed rating of 87 when she been in the 130s) ... Pella returns 6 of 7 runners, including the top 3 from their winning Iowa State Meet team ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 157 -- Marissa Ferebee -- 12 -- ( 158 158
159 154 145 147 146 140 141 ) #13 - Romeo MI ... Romeo finished a very good 6th at NXN Nationals last year ... they were a close 2nd at NXR Midwest (losing by 1 point to Downers Grove North and beating Carmel by 3 points ... They won the Michigan State Division 1 Championship (by 82 points) ... Romeo returns 4 of 7 runners and they need a #5 scorer ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2023 seasonal ratings]: 140 -- Annie Hrabovsky -- 11 -- ( 142 131
132 121 126 ) #14 - Carmel IN ... Carmel finished 15th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing a close 3rd at NXR Midwest (and the being selected as an NXN "At Large" team) ... Carmel beat Fort Wayne Concordia Luthern at the Indiana State Meet ... They return 4 of 7 runners from those races, but they were their top 4 scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 136 -- Annabel Pollert -- 11 -- ( 121 129
128 123 117 121 116 113 117 100 ) #15 - James W. Robinson VA ... James W. Robinson finished 5th at NXR Southeast and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... James W. Robinson won the Virginia State Class 6 race in a tie-breaker over West Springfield ... James W. Robinson returns all runners from the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 135 -- Karina Bird -- 11 -- ( 133 130 128
136 127 ) #16 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista won NXN Nationals last year (and were 3rd at NXN Nationals 2023) ... They won NXR Southwest handily last year ... They return only 2 of 7 runners from those races ... Mountain Vista has some depth and returns some talented runners ... I won't be surprised if they exceed this ranking number ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 141 -- Claire Guiberson -- 12 -- ( 144
145 139 133 130 122 123 116 ) #17 - Trabuco Hills (SS) CA ... Trabuco Hills (SS) finished 7th at NXN Nationals last year ... Trabuco finished 1st in the California State Meet Merge ... They graduated 2 scoring senior runners and are losing their top freshmen runner (Evangeline Williams) to transfer ... However some quality runners are returning, but it appears they need a #5 scorer (so I guessed a modest new runner) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 144 -- Millie Bayles -- 12 -- ( 141 142
151 133 147 139 ) #18 - JSerra Catholic (SS) CA ... JSerra Catholic finished 16th at NXN Nationals last year (they were 13th at NXN in 2023 and 21st at NXN in 2022) ... They finished 3rd in the California State Meet Merge last year ... JSerra Catholic returns 6 of 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 133 -- Chloe Elbaz -- 12 -- ( 120 138 126
117 126 104 128 ) #19 - Harrisburg SD ... Harrisburg finished 5th at NXR Heartland and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... Harrisburg won the South Dakota Class AA race ... They return their top 6 runners from NXR and State ... like other teams here, their #5 scorer is important ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 145 -- Brianna Reilly -- 8 -- ( 145 146
137 135 ) #20 - Sioux Falls Christian SD ... Sioux Falls Christian finished 5th at NXR Heartland (only 5 runners competed) and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... Sioux Falls Christian won the South Dakota Class A race ... They all 6 runners from the State Meet return ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 131 -- Jerica Glasser -- 12 -- ( 127 120
116 115 113 ) #21 - Padua Academy DE ... Padua Academy finished 7th at NXR Southeast and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Delaware State D1 race last year ... They return 6 of 7 runners from those races (including the top 3 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 145 -- Anna Bockius -- 12 -- ( 136 140
127 122 ) #22 - Bridgeland TX ... Bridgeland finished 3rd at NXR South and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the RunningLane Championship Gold Race and were 2nd in the Texas State 6A race ... they return 6 of 7 from State Meet race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 144 -- Rowan Saacke -- 12 -- ( 138 140
131 134 ) #23 - Creekside FL ... Creekside did not compete in NXR Southeast last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Florida State 4A race last year and return all 7 runners from that race ... At the time of this writing, the Florida State Meet is on the same day as NXR Southeast ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 134 -- Alyson Johnson -- 12 -- ( 123 134
129 ) #24 - West Springfield VA ... West Sprinfield finished 4th at NXR Southeast and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They lost a tie-breaker (to James W. Robinson) in the Virginia State 6A race ... they return 4 of 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 137 -- Allie Horner -- 11 -- ( 133 129
129 124 108 ) #25 - Flower Mound TX ... Flower Mound finished 14th at NXN Nationals last year (and 17th at NXN 2023 and 6th at NXN 2022) ... Flower Mound won NXR South handily and was the Texas UIL 6A State Champion ... They return 5 of 7 runners from those races (but lose 2 good scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 139 -- Adeline Bennett -- 11 -- ( 131 137
137 134 136 120 121 114 ) #26 - Chapparral CO ... Chapparral CO finished 5th at NXR Southwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 4th (to Mountain Vista, Air Academy & Fossill Ridge) at the Colorado State 5A race ... They return 6 of 7 runners scorers from NXR and the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 131 -- Kapri Parry -- 12 -- ( 128 130 122
125 126 106 ) #27 - Heritage CO ... Heritage finished 12th at NXR Southwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 8th at the Colorado State 5A race ... They return all runners from NXR and the State Meet ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 142 -- Emry Schwalm -- 12 -- ( 131 137
136 138 135 124 ) #28 - Chicago (St. Ignatius Col Prep) IL ... Chicago (St. Ignatius Col Prep) finished 12th at NXR Midwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... they won the Illinois State 2A race ... they return 6 of 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 142 -- Annika Swan -- 12 -- ( 113 142 145
135 133 ) #29 - Crater OR ... Crater finished 9th at NXR Northwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They won the Oregon State 5A race ... they return all 6 finishers from NXR and 6 of 7 from the State Meet ... Some runners were given credit for track performances which helped their ranking ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 133 -- Brynn Davenport -- 11 -- ( 116 124
120 117 105 ) #30 - Rocky Mountain ID ... Rocky Mountain finished 18th at NXN Nationals after they won NXR Northwest ... They return 4 of 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2024 seasonal ratings]: 134 -- Hallie Heemeyer -- 12 -- ( 129 132
129 131 125 117 108 113 )
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Girls Pre-Season Regional Projections 2025 |
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** Team Scores calculated using just the teams from that Region Average Estimated Scorer Team Speed St Score Rating NXN Region ==== ===== ======== ========== California Buchanan (CS) CA 60 129.87 California JSerra Catholic (SS) CA 110 121.81 California Trabuco Hills (SS) CA 112 121.95 California Del Norte (SD) CA 132 118.17 California El Toro (SS) CA 136 117.89 California Whitney (SJ) CA 148 117.23 California St. Francis (CC) CA 144 116.75 California Santiago Corona (SS) CA 170 116.42 California Tesoro (SS) CA 181 115.30 California Oak Ridge (SJ) CA 194 111.25 California Point Loma (SD) CA 197 111.02 California Heartland Wayzata MN 66 126.60 Heartland Pella IA 77 125.58 Heartland Harrisburg SD 88 122.85 Heartland Sioux Falls Christian SD 74 122.46 Heartland Johnston IA 93 118.71 Heartland Forest Lake Area MN 123 112.86 Heartland Pleasant Valley IA 129 111.12 Heartland Midwest Fort Wayne Concordia Luth IN 95 126.23 Midwest Romeo MI 110 124.41 Midwest Carmel IN 113 123.40 Midwest Chicago (St. Ignatius Col)IL 150 119.34 Midwest Barrington IL 151 119.56 Midwest Batavia IL 155 117.36 Midwest York IL 155 116.82 Midwest Lake Central IN 155 116.70 Midwest Saline MI 166 115.50 Midwest Naperville North IL 176 113.82 Midwest Homestead IN 165 113.77 Midwest New York (see NY Girls Projection Page) Shenendehowa NY 85 125.81 New York Bethlehem NY 100 125.70 New York Saratoga Springs NY 130 118.45 New York Guilderland NY 190 116.44 New York Northport NY 190 115.77 New York Fayetteville-Manlius NY 210 112.62 New York *** (NY scores based on a 30 team simulation) Northeast Union Catholic NJ 39 133.16 Northeast Champlain Valley Union VT 109 116.84 Northeast Princeton HS NJ 113 115.60 Northeast Westford Academy MA 115 116.44 Northeast Billerica Memorial MA 120 114.40 Northeast Lexington MA 132 113.00 Northeast Hanover HS NH 164 109.69 Northeast North Kingstown RI 155 108.67 Northeast Cumberland RI 154 107.83 Northeast Northwest Crater OR 71 118.44 Northwest Rocky Mountain ID 71 118.10 Northwest Summit OR 77 116.05 Northwest Sehome WA 77 115.92 Northwest Boise Senior ID 82 115.15 Northwest Timberline (Boise) ID 96 111.78 Northwest South Rogers AR 43 129.28 South Flower Mound TX 88 120.66 South Bridgeland TX 89 121.52 South Smithson Valley TX 96 118.60 South Bentonville AR 143 111.60 South Piedmont OK 148 111.92 South Lucas Lovejoy TX 150 111.41 South Southlake Carroll TX 155 111.24 South The Woodlands TX 165 109.40 South Southeast Webb School of Knoxville TN 70 130.56 Southeast James W. Robinson VA 95 123.90 Southeast Padua Academy DE 102 122.16 Southeast Creekside HS FL 103 121.80 Southeast West Springfield VA 108 121.40 Southeast Brentwood TN 131 116.00 Southeast Mountain Brook HS AL 138 114.96 Southeast Blacksburg VA 141 113.08 Southeast Severna Park MD 145 112.40 Southeast Southwest Lone Peak UT 61 131.15 Southwest Niwot CO 88 130.62 Southwest Air Academy CO 97 126.17 Southwest Mountain Vista CO 109 122.80 Southwest Chaparral CO 122 120.31 Southwest Heritage CO 140 119.40 Southwest Boulder CO 141 116.37 Southwest American Fork UT 159 115.47 Southwest Fossil Ridge CO 178 112.16 Southwest |