National Pre-Season XC 2022
BOYS Teams - National 2022
Bill Meylan (July 27, 2022)
- Boys - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2021 XC season into 2022
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify very little and selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races or RunningLane Championship
- ... Consider performance in championship races such as State Championships
- ... Initially, combine possible teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 5-10 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2022 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing -
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess"
.
I did add some Regional Projections
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2022
... Note - Scores are based on a race of the 30 teams listed
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Newbury Park (SS) CA 35 California
2 Jesuit New Orleans LA 225 South
3 Southlake Carroll TX 240 South
4 Jesuit Oregon OR 240 Northwest
5 Great Oak (SS) CA 305 California
6 Union Catholic Reg NJ 345 Northeast
7 Christian Brothers Acad NJ 360 Northeast
8 Granada (NC) CA 375 California
9 Riverton UT 380 Southwest
10 American Fork UT 390 Southwest
11 Wayzata MN 420 Heartland
12 Belen Jesuit Prep FL 425 Southeast
13 Crater OR 425 Northwest
14 Central Catholic OR 425 Northwest
15 Mason OH 430 Midwest
**16 Center Grove IN 435 Midwest **
17 Mountain View UT 435 Southwest
18 Kickapoo MO 435 Midwest
19 Atascocita TX 445 South
20 Valor Christian CO 445 Southwest
21 Niwot CO 445 Southwest
22 Corning NY 450 New York
23 Carmel IN 460 Midwest
24 The Woodlands TX 460 South
25 Hinsdale Central IL 475 Midwest
26 Brebeuf Jesuit Prep IN 460 Midwest
27 Campolindo (NC) CA 460 California
28 Bishop Blanchet WA 460 Northwest
29 San Clemente (SS) CA 460 California
30 Plainfield South IL 480 Midwest
** Center Grove could move up as high as #6
because Ty Garrett has transferred back
from Valor Christian
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled ... some could be above as well.
Mountain Vista CO Southwest
Herriman UT Southwest
San Luis Obispo (CS) CA California
Corner Canyon UT Southwest
Flower Mound TX South
The Classical Academy CO Southwest
Farragut TN Southeast
Williston ND Heartland
Mira Costa (SS) CA California
Zionsville Community IN Midwest
Fishers IN Midwest
McCallie School TN Southeast
Millard West NE Heartland
Dowling Catholic IA Heartland
Skyridge UT Southwest
St. Xavier OH Midwest
Cherokee Trail CO Southwest
Madera South (CS) CA California
Ventura (SS) CA California
Franklin OR Northwest
Lancaster OH Midwest
LaSalle College PA Northeast
Brentwood TN Southeast
Iowa City IA Heartland
Northville MI Midwest
Clovis (CS) CA California
Liberty North MO Midwest
Haddonfield Memorial HS NJ Northeast
Brentwood Academy TN Southeast
Lone Peak UT Southwest
Ayala (SS) CA California
Fayetteville-Manlius NY New York
Columbus North IN Midwest
Idaho Falls ID Northwest
Prosper TX South
Farmington UT Southwest
Lincoln HS OR Northwest
Burnt-Hills NY New York
Loyola (SS) CA California
Cedar UT Southwest
Bishop Hendricken HS RI Northeast
St. Anthony's NY New York
Bentonville AR South
Boise Senior ID Northwest
Auburn AL Southeast
Cheyenne Mountain CO Southwest
Bolles HS FL Southeast
Lakeville North MN Heartland
*** I may have missed some teams going through
my databases as quickly as I did
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2021 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but very few)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- ... Unfortunately, I had to exclude some teams due to lack of data I need for my purpose
- Newbury Park is the obvious favorite.
- A large group of the top 30 teams above are generally Even-Up with respect to preseason projection ... Very little separates the lower-ranked 20 or so teams ... Most ranking placement was determined by speed-rating simulations (which varied quite a bit) ... One new "good" runner on most teams or one scorer having an "off" race made a significant difference in ranking position.
#1 - Newbury Park (SS) CA
... Newbury Park won last year's RunningLane Championship Gold
race by 92 points (over 2nd-place Cheyenne Mountain Colorado by
29 to 121 points, with Jesuit Oregon 3rd-place at 187 points) ... Newbury Park's
speed ratings indicate they are the "best" US high school cross
country team of all-time based on speed rating evaluation
... Five runners from that team return this season (the
top 5 listed below ... Colin Sahlman was one of the graduates) ...
Collectively, the top five returning speed ratings make this year's
Newbury Park team the highest-rated preseason team I have ever seen.
As a side-note, Newbury Park is the defending NXN Champion (they beat Great Oak by 4 points at NXN 2019) ... Leo Young (a freshman during XC 2019) is the only returning runner in 2022 that raced on the winning team at NXN 2019.
Newbury Park is the odds-on preseason favorite and #1-ranked team ..... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
201 - Leo Young - 12
201 - Lex Young - 12
198 - Aaron Sahlman - 12
186 - Hector Martinez - 12
183 - Dev Doshi - 11
173 - Aaron Cantu - 12
#2 - Jesuit New Orleans LA ... Jesuit New Orleans finished 16th at the RunningLane Championships last year ... They demonstrated their national XC ability by winning the Southern Showcase in September (at the John Hunt course, also used by RunningLane Champs) ... Most importantly, Jesuit New Orleans returns all seven runners from the RunnigLane Champ team .....Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
180 - Jack DesRoches - 12
178 - Michael Vocke - 11
174 - Lucas Sampedro - 11
173 - Robert Buisson - 12
173 - Leland Crawford - 10
171 - Brady Mullen - 10
169 - Aeric Wender - 12
160 - Patrick Dowd - 12
#3 - Southlake Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll was the Texas State 6A Champs last year, and they finished 2nd at the NXR South Regional (to winner Grapevine) and then 21st at RunningLane Championships ... They return their top six finishers from all those races ..... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
182 - David Fisher - 12
175 - Robert Freeman - 12
173 - Hunter Hill - 12
173 - Logan Cantu - 12
172 - Jude Alvarez - 11
171 - Tyler Ortiz - 12
159 - Dylan Fisher - 12
159 - Vivek Reddy - 12
153 - Blake Bullard - 10
#4 - Jesuit Oregon ... Jesuit OR finished 3rd at the RunningLane Championships last year ... and before that, they won the Pacific Northwest Showcase and Oregon State 6A Championship ... Jesuit OR returns 4 of their top 6 runners (I assumed their #5 runner will have a decent speed rating ... a very good new or improved runner could have Jesuit Oregon ranked #2 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
190 - Jacob Nenow - 12
181 - Gus Clevenger - 12
180 - Caden Swanson - 11
177 - Joshua Augustine - 12
144 - Owen Firth - 12
143 - Ethan Strong - 11
#5 - Great Oak (SS) CA ... Great Oak CA finished 7th at the RunningLane Championships last year and 2nd to Newbury Park the California State Meet Merge (by 273 points)... 3 of the top 5 from those races graduated, but Great Oak has good depth ... Great Oak finished 2nd to Newbury Park at NXN Nationals in 2019 (by only 4 points) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
181 - Ramses Cortes - 12
174 - Nick Gaffney - 12
173 - Mark Cortes - 12
169 - Austin Elkins - 12
167 - Gabriel Rodriguez - 11
160 - Jordan Myers - 12
158 - Cameron Keeney - 11
157 - Michael Rodriguez - 11
#6 - Union Catholic Reg NJ ... Union Catholic finished 4th at the RunningLane Championships last year after beating Christian Brothers Academy at the the New Jersey Meet of Champion (by 17 points) ... Union Catholic loses 2 of their top 3 to graduation, but return the 5 of their top 7 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
191 - Jimmy Wischusen - 11
172 - Caudell Cajuste - 12
172 ?? - Alex Saldana - 11
171 - Ryan Cichocki - 12
161 - Evan Weber - 10
150 - Josh Hunsinger - 11
#7 - Christian Brothers Academy NJ ... Christian Brothers is a multi-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and were 2nd in 2013) ... they finished 16th at NXN Nationals in 2019 ... Christian Brothers finished 2nd at both the NXR Northeast Regional and New Jersey Meet Champions ... they lose only one runner from those teams to graduation (their top runner) ... CBA is typically a deep team with an ability to add runners or reload ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
177 - Nicholas Sullivan - 12
173 - Jack Falkowski - 11
172 - Joe Barrett - 10
172 - Alex Kemp - 11
162 - Matthew Mastroly - 12
157 - Lucas Ward - 12
157 - Zach Shroba - 12
157 - Alex Mastroly - 10
#8 - Granada (NC) CA ... Granada CA finished 8th in the California State Meet Merge ... They return 6 runners from the State Meet race, including the top 4 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
182 - Roland Ruckmann-Barnes - 12
171 - Farin Soriano - 12
169 - Liam Manley - 12
169 - Eshaan Singh - 11
168 - Dheeraj Gurusamy - 12
160 - Luther Hart - 12
#9 - Riverton UT ... Riverton Utah finished 3rd at the Utah State 6A Championship last year, and then finished 4th at NXR Southwest and 17th at the RunningLane Championships ... they return 4 of their top 6 runners from RunningLane ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
183 - Jake Seegmiller - 12
177 - Andrew Ludwig - 11
177 - Tyler Mcdougal - 12
166 - Corbin Randall - 10
153 - Isaac Crumrine - 11
140 - Samuel Ghiz - 11
140 - Zachary Matz - 12
#10 - American Fork UT
... American Fork has competed nicely at NXN Nationals on multiple occasions ... American Fork
finished 2nd at the Utah State 6A Championship last fall, and then
finished 3rd at NXR Southwest and 10th at the RunningLane Championship
... Like the previous year, they graduated 5 of 7 runners from those races, but
American Fork has an ability to reload nicely (and I gave them
credit for that) ... In addition, they got a top-level transfer in Danny
Simmons (from Salmon HS, Idaho) ... So this ranking is a guess ..... Approximate
representative returning speed ratings:
191 - Danny Simmons - 11
177 - Ben Jaster - 11
173 - Ben Bradshaw - 11
158 - Seth Smith - 12
145 - Carter Moore - 10
141 - Bridger Karren - 11
140 - Dylan Crowther - 12
#11 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata has competed at NXN Nationals on multiple occasions ... Wayzata won the Minnesota 3A State title, won NXR Heartland and then finished 31st at RunningLane Championships (lower than I expected) ... They return 4 of their top 5 runners from RunningLane ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
175 - Hamza Mohamed - 12
172 - Parker Dietrick - 11
169 - Will Weber - 10
166 - William Weber - 10
164 - Daniel Mccollor - 11
164 - Zakaria Hussein - 12
160 - Tyler Kissell - 11
159 - Zak Hussein - 12
151 - Daniel Salatino - 10
#12 - Belen Jesuit Prep FL ... Belen Jesuit Prep finished 5th at NXR Southeast Regional last year after winning the Florida State 3A title ... They return 4 of their top 5 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
185 - Joshua Ruiz - 11
171 - Evan Torres - 11
169 - Matthew Calero - 12
167 - Alec Torricella - 12
166 - Roberto Leon - 12
162 - Joey Diaz-Quintero - 10
159 - Diego de la Hoz - 12
159 - Marco de la Hoz - 12
#13 -
Crater OR
... Crater OR finished 6th at the Pacific Northwest
Showcase after winning the Oregon State 5A Championship ... Crater OR returns
6 of
7 runners from State including top runners Tyrone Gorze and Josiah
Tostenson (I assumed their #5 runner will have a decent speed rating) ...
Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
195 - Tyrone Gorze - 12
181 - Josiah Tostenson - 10
165 - Shaun Garnica - 11
164 - Jeffrey Hellmann - 11
147 - Ryder Hvall - 12
142 - Caleb Doddington - 11
139 - Tayvon Kitchen - 10
#14 - Central Catholic OR ... Central Catholic OR finished 3rd at the Pacific Northwest Showcase after finishing 2nd at the Oregon State 6A Championship (won by Jesuit OR by 17 points) ... Central Catholic OR returns 5 of 7 runners from State (I assumed their #5 runner will have a decent speed rating) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
189 - Wesley Shipsey - 12
178 - Charlie Black - 12
171 - Garrett Mackey - 12
160 - Tristan Sullivan - 12
145 - Finn Briscoe - 10
141 - Brady Dugan - 12
#15 - Mason OH
... Mason OH won the Ohio State Division 1 Championship last
fall, and return 4 of 6 runners from that race ... They then finished
6th at NXR Midwest (but were missing some runners) ... Returning runners
make Mason 7 runners deep
... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
173 - Isaac Schachleiter - 12
172 - Keith Neuburger - 12
169 - Jerry Xu - 11
167 - Max Liao - 11
167 - Aidan Markich - 12
162 - Braeden Fedders - 12
161 - James Mroczka - 12
#16 - Center Grove IN ... Center Grove finished 6th at Indiana State Champ and 11th at NXR Midwest last fall ... they return 6 of 7 from the State Meet including the top 4 runners ... NOTE Update - Ty Garrett has transferred back to Center Grove from Valor Christian Colorado) - This could move Center Grove up as high as #6 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
185 - Ty Garrett - 12
(update -transfer)
176 - Parker Mimbela - 12
175 - Griffin Hennessy - 12
168 - Jarret Rockwell - 12
166 - Kyle Montgomery - 11
159 - Gavin Rockwell - 12
144 - Levi Farmer - 12
#17 - Mountain View UT
... Mountain View Utah won the Utah State 5A Championship last year, and then
finished 5th at NXR Southwest and 12th at the RunningLane Championships ... they return
3 and 4 runners from those races ... Approximate representative
returning speed ratings:
187 - Liam Heninger - 12
181 - Parker Barnes - 12
165 - Thomas Moore - 12
162 - Mack Waite - 12
159 - Owen Burnett - 12
142 - Kyle Steadman - 10
141 - Ammon Larsen - 10
#18 - Kickapoo MO
... Kickapoo MO won the Missouri State 5A Championship last
fall, and return their top 6 runners from that race ... They finished
17th at NXR Midwest (they were missing a runner, but didn't run very
well which is concern for ranking) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
177 - Tyler Harris - 12
171 - Brooklyn Creehan - 12
170 - Kyle Keltner - 12
169 - Grant Musick - 12
159 - Jack Creehan - 12
155 - Colby Goddard - 12
132 - Ivan McElderry - 12
#19 - Atascocita TX ... Atascocita finished 4th at the Texas State 6A Champs last year, and they finished 4th at the NXR South Regional and then 4th at RunningLane Silver race (not the Gold race) ... They return 5 of 7 runners ..... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
178 - Oliver Maldonado - 12
173 - Michael Archie - 12
168 - Juan Giron - 12
162 - David Heckman - 12
160 - Trevor Ehrlicher - 12
141 - Jacob Fisher - 12
140 - Nathan Streater - 11
#20 - Valor Christian CO
... Valor Christian finished 2nd (to Mountain Vista) at the Colorado State
5A Championship last fall ... and then finished
9th at the RunningLane Championship
race (graduated 3 of the 7 runners) ... also heard that top
returner (Ty Garrett) has transferred ... Top three returners look
solid, so I guessed levels for the other two scorers in ranking
simulations ... Approximate representative
returning speed ratings:
180 - Drew Costelow - 12
178 - Dane Eike - 11
171 - Kaeden Dendorfer - 10
142 - Enzo Swan - 10
143 - Judah Crooks - 10
143 - Porter Warren - 10
#21 - Niwot CO ... Niwot finished 2nd (to Cheyenne Mountain) at the Colorado State 4A Championship last fall ... and then finished 8th at the RunningLane Championship ... they lost 3 of the 7 runners to graduation (including top runner Zane Bergen) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
180 - Carlos Kipkorir Cheruiyot - 12
169 - Jeremy Gillett - 12
169 - Frederick Ambrose - 12
164 - Stefan Haug - 12
162 - Gavin Engtrakul - 10
157 - Keegan Geldean - 10
156 - Christopher Wood - 10
#22 - Corning NY ... Corning NY won the New York State Class A race handily over Fayetteville-Manlius, did not compete in the NY Federation Championships and finished 2nd to Burnt Hills at NXR New York (by only 12 points) while missing their top two runners who were competing at Eastbay Northeast ... Corning returns six runners with overall speed ratings ranging from 162 to 183, and could better this ranking ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
183 - Ashton Bange - 12
169 - Tevin McLaren - 12
168 - Gabe Cornfield - 12
162 - Marcus Homa - 12
162 - Joshua Beres - 12
162 - DJ Cornfield - 11
#23 - Carmel IN
... Carmel
finished 5th (to Brebeuf Jesuit Prep) at the Indiana State Championship
last fall ... they graduated 3 runners from that race ... Carmel is typically a
large squad with an ability to reload nicely ... Approximate
representative returning speed ratings:
195 - Kole Mathison - 12
169 - Charlie Leedke - 12
167 - Thomas Biltimier - 11
163 - Kj Sweeney - 12
159 - Connor Mallon - 12
152 - Quavion Hooks - 12
152 - Max Meisner - 11
152 - Eli Gomez - 10
#24 - The Woodlands TX ... The Woodlands finished 2nd (to Southlake Carroll) at the Texas State 6A Championship last fall ... They then finished 3rd at the NXR South Regional before finishing 29th at RunningLane Championships ... Two seniors graduated from the State Meet race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
174 - Pablo Lesarri - 12
173 - Ben Reyes - 12
169 - Straton Miller - 12
163 - Gabriel Aviles - 12
161 - Ethan Sharkowicz - 11
150 - Gabe Aviles - 12
147 - Axxeton Miller - 11
#25 - Hinsdale Central IL ... Hinsdale Central finished 2nd at Illinois State 3A Champ and 4th at NXR Midwest last fall ... they return 4 of 7 from the State Meet including the top 2 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
182 - Daniel Watcke - 12
171 - Aden Bandukwala - 11
164 - Jesse Gamboa - 12
163 - Michael Skora - 12
162 - Grant Miller - 12
148 - Kyle Doorhy - 12
144 - Nicholas Bergner - 12
#26 - Brebeuf Jesuit Prep School IN ... Brebeuf Jesuit Prep won the Indiana State Championship last fall ... they finished 2nd at NXR Midwest and 14th at RunningLane Championships ... they return 5 of 7 runners, but graduated the top 2 ... I assumed the #5 scorer will be decent ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
176 - Matteo Rosio - 12
175 - Cameron Todd - 11
173 - Ezra Burrell - 12
163 - Brennan Legue - 12
138 - Egan Williams - 11
#27 - Campolindo (NC) CA ... Campolindo CA finished 5th in the California State Meet Merge last fall ... they return 3 of their top 4 runners from that race ... they have a good core of 3 runners, so I estimated (manipulated) the next two scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
176 - Alexander Lodewick - 12
173 - Blake Webster - 12
171 - Connor Mcghee - 12
155 - Maxson Cook - 10
143 - Alex Thomasson - 11
139 - Baron Walsh - 11
#28 - Bishop Blanchet WA ... Bishop Blanchet WA won the Washington State 3A Championship last year ... they then finished 4th at the NXR Northwest Regional ... they return 6 of 7 runners from those races, including their top 2 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
188 - William Schneider - 12
178 - Vincent Recupero - 10
169 - Drew Oliver - 12
157 - Will Sandnes - 11
155 - Johnny DiMartino - 12
147 - Dash Weber - 12
130 - Declan Weber - 10
#29 - San Clemente (SS) CA ... San Clemente CA finished 6th in the California State Meet Merge last fall ... they return 5 of 7 runners from that race, including 4 scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
177 - Juan Chantaca - 12
175 - Brett Ephraim - 11
168 - Rory Catsimanes - 12
163 - Grant Sestak - 12
156 - Pierce Clark - 11
151 - Beau Olsen - 10
148 - Taylor Olsen - 11
#30 - Plainfield South IL ... Plainfield South finished 7th at Illinois State 3A Champ and 9th at NXR Midwest last fall ... they return 6 of 7 including all 5 scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings:
178 - Camyn Viger - 11
168 - Dylan Maloney - 10
165 - Ethan Reynoso - 12
163 - Gavin Borger - 11
162 - Bj Sorg - 12
154 - Jack Wright - 12
151 - Owen O'Shea - 12
NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.
Pre-season ranking is part data and
part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant
amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large
... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion
... Some
Regional Projection lists are
available at the bottom of this page.