[TullyRunners Home Page

[ National Boys Teams ]

National Pre-Season XC 2017

GIRLS Teams - National 2017

Bill Meylan (July 29, 2017)

 
  • Girls - Contending National Teams
  •  ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
  •  
  • Purpose
  •  ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
  •  
  • Ranking Method
  •  ... General extension of the 2016 XC season into 2017
  •  ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
  •  ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
  •  ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
  •  ... Consider performance in championship races
  •  ... Initially, combine about 85-90 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
  •  ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
  •  ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors

Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2017 race results are what count.

I did add some Regional Projections this year.

 

 National GIRLS Teams 2017
 

 Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2017


      School                 State   Score    NXN Region
      --------------------   -----   -----    ----------
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius    NY      110     New York
  2   Keller                  TX      285     South
  3   Broomfield              CO      295     Southwest
  4   Buchanan                CA      320     California
  5   Mountain Vista          CO      340     Southwest
  6   Davis Senior            CA      335     California
  7   Sunset                  OR      350     Northwest
  8   Edina                   MN      370     Heartland
  9   Jesuit                  OR      370     Northwest
  10  Great Oak               CA      390     California
  11  Mountain View-ID        ID      395     Northwest
  12  Naperville North        IL      405     Midwest
  13  Saratoga                NY      405     New York
  14  Fort Wayne Carroll      IN      420     Midwest
  15  Cardinal Gibbons        NC      420     Southeast
  16  Centerville             OH      425     Midwest
  17  Lyons Township          IL      425     Midwest
  18  North Rockland          NY      430     New York
  19  Bozeman                 MT      440     Northwest
  20  Palos Verdes            CA      445     California
  21  Johnston                IA      445     Heartland
  22  Pine Crest              FL      445     Southeast
  23  Canyon/Anaheim          CA      445     California
  24  Billings Sr             MT      450     Northwest
  25  Troy                    OH      450     Midwest
  26  Southlake Carroll       TX      450     South
  27  Minnetonka              MN      455     Heartland
  28  Camas                   WA      460     Northwest
  29  Blacksburg              VA      460     Southeast
  30  Carmel                  IN      460     Midwest
  30* North Hunterdon         NJ      490+    Northeast
  30* Milton                  MA      490+    Northeast
  30* Colts Neck              NJ      490+    Northeast (updated July 30)
    * added above (from below) for multiple team
       regional representation from each region


    The next group is basically in order following the
     list above ... Many are very close and the order
      could be shuffled a lot:


      Claremont               CA      California
      Battle Mountain         CO      Southwest
      Yorkville               IL      Midwest
      Belvidere North         IL      Midwest
      Shenendehowa            NY      New York
      Yorkville               IL      Midwest
      Marcus                  TX      South
      Issaquah                WA      Northwest
      San Ramon Valley        CA      California
      Glenbard West           IL      Midwest
      Vernon Hills            IL      Midwest
      Niceville               FL      Southeast
      Downers Grove South     IL      Midwest
      Saugus                  CA      California
      Dana Hills              CA      California
      Chiles                  FL      Southeast
      Niskayuna               NY      New York
      Auburn                  AL      Southeast
      Sioux Falls Lincoln     SD      Heartland
      Desert Vista            AZ      Southwest
      Mountain View-UT        UT      Southwest
      Capistrano Valley       CA      California
      Minooka                 IL      Midwest
      Champlain Valley        VT      Northeast
      Colts Neck              NJ      Northeast (moved up to #30; omission error of runner)
      George C. Marshall      VA      Southeast
      Bolles                  FL      Southeast
      Summit                  OR      Northwest
      Pinkerton               NH      Northeast
      Campolindo              CA      California
      Skyline                 UT      Southwest
      Minster                 OH      Midwest
      Willmar                 MN      Heartland
      Timpanogos              UT      Southwest
      Wayzata                 MN      Heartland
      Ravenwood               TN      Southeast
      Huntsville              AL      Southeast
      Canyon Randall          TX      South
      Huntsville              AL      Southeast
      Hinsdale Central        IL      Midwest
      Westminster             GA      Southeast
      Pine View               UT      Southwest
      Marshall                MN      Heartland
      Weber                   UT      Southwest
      Hellgate                MT      Northwest
		
  • Where did the scores come from?
  •  ... 2016 Seasonal Speed Ratings
  •  ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
  •  ... Manual manipulation based on Guessing
  •  
  • Last Year's Pre-Season Projections (Guesses)
  •  ... 2016 Projections & NXN Results are shown in a table below
  •  ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2016, I did not identify 3 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list)
  •  ... 5 of the top 6 teams at NXN 2016 were ranked in my pre-season top 6 teams
  • General Comments for the Coming Season
  •  ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
  •  ... 14 of the top 30 teams above competed at NXN Nationals last year
  •  ... 8 of the top 10 teams above finished in the top 15 at NXN Nationals last year
  •  
  • After Fayetteville-Manlius, placement of teams was more difficult than usually for the girls ... No obvious 2nd and 3rd selections.
  • Major switching of teams #2 through #20 is very possible.
Comments on the TOP 25 Teams:
#1 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... FM is the defending NXN champion ... FM has been the NXN champion in 10 of the last 11 years ... As noted last year, picking FM as the favorite does not require much imagination ... Fayetteville-Manlius returns their top 5 girls from last year's winning team that won by 140 points ... Not much more to say ... More info about FM is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections, and detailed info on the top five FM runners entering the season is available from my Top NY Girls Profiles ... Returning speed ratings are 147, 140 139, 138 and 132.

#2 - Keller TX ... Keller finished 15th at NXN Nationals last year and they return their entire team ... Keller raced exceptionally well in winning the Texas State Meet and very nicely at the NXR South Regional ... Their performance at NXN Nationals was sub-par, and that concerns me with ranking them #2 ... However, their speed ratings give them an advantage on everybody but FM ... Returning speed ratings are 141, 134, 130, 118 and 111.

#3 - Broomfield CO ... Broomfield finished 7th at NXN Nationals last year ... all six runners from NXN were juniors, so a team of seniors could be a great starting point for an outstanding season ... Returning speed ratings are 129, 129, 122, 118 and 115.

#4 - Buchanan CA ... Buchanan enters the season as the top-rated team in California ... Buchanan finished 5th in the California State Meet merge, but they return their top 5 runners from the CA State Meet (the top two had speed ratings of 141) ... During spring track, five Buchanan girls ran the 3200 meters between 10:28 and 11:04, and the bodes very well for Buchanan ... Returning speed ratings are 141, 141, 120, 113 and 112.

#5 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista finished 13th at NXN Nationals last year ... Mountain Vista won the NXR Southwest Regional ... they return 5 of their top 6 runners, and their top two runners were freshmen ... Returning speed ratings are 131, 131, 125, 115 and 114.

#6 - Davis Senior CA ... Davis Senior finished 2nd at NXN in both 2016 and 2015 ... they are returning 5 of 7 runners from CA States and NXN, but are losing two scorers ... Returning runners include Olivia O'Keeffe (143 speed rating at States), Sophia Lodigiani (132 speed rating at States) and Aniela Mitchell (126 speed rating at States) ... Davis Senior has proven they can perform in the big races, and that gives that gives Davis Senior extra credit in my opinion ... Returning speed ratings are 140, 130, 125, 117 and 102.

#7 - Sunset OR ... Sunset finish 11th at NXN Nationals last year ... they return 6 of 7 runners including the top 4 scorers at NXN ... among the returning runners is Ember Stratton who finished second overall and is the top returning NXN runner (her individual profile is available from the National Top Individual Girls page) ... Sunset has a very strong top 3 runners as a core ... Kelly Makin ran very well during track [800m (2:09.07 at Brooks PR), 1500m (4:28.96 at Portland Track Festival)] ... Returning speed ratings are 150, 134, 132, 106 and 100.

#8 - Edina MN ... Edina finished 12th at NXN Nationals last year ... Edina won the NXR Heartland Regional ... they return 3 of their top 5 runners, but may be able to reload for the coming season ... Returning speed ratings are 131, 128, 125, 118 and 100.

#9 - Jesuit OR ... Jesuit did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 6th at NXR Northwest (a sub-par performance) ... Jesuit did beat Sunset at the Oregon State Meet ... they return their top 6 runners ... Jesuit could be very good this coming season ... Returning speed ratings are 125, 124, 124, 123 and 107.

#10 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 3rd at NXN last year, 3rd in 2015 and 2nd in 2014 ... Great Oak was hurt by graduation (5 of 7 runners from NXN and States graduated) ... However, Great Oak has excellent depth and I am giving them credit for reloading ... Raw speed rating numbers place them about #18 ... Returning speed ratings are 134, 125, 118, 108 and 107.

#11 - Mountain View ID ... Mountain View did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 5th at NXR Northwest ... Mountain View returns 6 of 7 runners including top runner Lexy Hallday who finished 16th at NXN as an individual (her individual profile is available from the National Top Individual Girls page) ... Returning speed ratings are 150, 125, 115, 112 and 110.

#12 - Naperville North IL ... Naperville North finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year, 14th in 2015 and 4th in 2014 ... Multiple appearances at NXN Nationals is a big plus ... Naperville North returns their top 3 runners as a solid core ... Naperville North was 2nd to Carmel at NXR Midwest last year ... Returning speed ratings are 136, 130, 128, 108 and 100.

#13 - Saratoga Springs NY ... Saratoga is a perennial competitor at NXN ... they have competed at NXN Nationals in 11 of the 13 years that NXN has operated ... Last year, however, Saratoga finished 5th at NXR New York in a sub-par performance ... Top runner Kelsey Chmiel finished 5th at NXN Nationals as an individual and returns this season (her individual profile is available from the National Top Individual Girls page) ... more info is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections ... Returning speed ratings are 154, 121, 116, 115 and 113.

#14 - Fort Wayne Carroll IN ... Fort Wayne Carroll did not compete in the NXR Midwest Regional last year ... they finished 2nd to Carmel at the Indiana State Meet with speed ratings of 137-130-120-118-103 for the five scoring runners (all five return this season) ... Those numbers get Fort Wayne Carroll ranked by my ranking method.

#15 - Cardinal Gibbons NC ... Cardinal Gibbons did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 3rd at the NXR Southeast Regional with an "At-Large" worthy performance, but were not selected ... They won the North Carolina State with an excellent performance ... Cardinal Gibbons returns 6 of 7 runners, including their top runner ... Returning speed ratings are 133, 130, 119, 106 and 106.

#16 - Centerville OH ... Centerville did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 5th at NXR Midwest ... they won the Ohio State Meet ... Centerville returns their entire team an is one of the favorites to qualify from the Midwest Region ... Returning speed ratings are 128, 120, 119, 114 and 113.

#17 - Lyons Township IL ... Lyons Township did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 12th at NXR Midwest and 5th at the Illinois State Meet ... Lyons Township returns their top 6 runners from the State Meet (2 of those runners did not run at the NXR regional) ... Returning speed ratings are 133, 131, 120, 108 and 102.

#18 - North Rockland NY ... North Rockland finished 10th at NXN Nationals in 2015 ... they did not qualify last year after a 4th-place finish at NXR New York with an unfortunate sub-par performance ... North Rockland has a very strong top duo in Katelyn Tuohy (#11 ranked individual in the nation - see the National Top Individual Girls page) and Haleigh Morales (see my Top NY Girls Profiles) ... more info is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections ... Returning speed ratings are 148, 137, 111, 109 and 101.

#19 - Bozeman MT ... Bozeman finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year and 19th in 2015 ... Bozeman won the NXR Northwest Regional last year ... they are returning 5 of 7 runners, but graduated two good runners ... Returning speed ratings are 142, 115, 112, 112 and 111.

#20 - Palos Verdes CA ...Palos Verdes finished 18th at NXN Nationals last year ...they finished 3rd in the California State Meet merge and were selected as an At-Large team ... two of their scoring runners graduated, but they can still score decently ... Returning speed ratings are 132, 125, 119, 114 and 100.

#21 - Johnston IA ... Johnston finished 5th at the NXR Heartland Regional after handily winning the Iowa State Meet ... Johnston is returning 6 of 7 runners including their top runner ... Returning speed ratings are 132, 122, 117, 114 and 103. 

#22 - Pine Crest FL ... Pine Crest finished 5th at the NXR Southeast Regional after winning the Florida State 2A Championship ... Pine Crest returns 5 of their top 6 runners including their top runner (Tsion Yared) ... Last year, 4 were freshmen and one was an 8th-grader ... Returning speed ratings are 140, 127, 122, 106 and 97. 

#23 - Canyon/Anaheim CA ... Canyon/Anaheim finished 8th in the California State Meet merge ... Canyon/Anaheim returns all 7 runners from States ... Returning speed ratings are 144, 117, 115, 115 and 109. 

#24 - Billings Sr MT ... Billings Sr finished 7th at the NXR Northwest Regional last year after finishing 2nd (to Bozeman) at the Montana State Meet ... Billings Sr returns 6 of 7 runners including their top 3 and top runner (Tiahna Vladic) ... Returning speed ratings are 148, 123, 120, 103 and 102. 

#25 - Troy OH ... Troy finished 10th at the NXR Midwest Regional after finishing 2nd (to Centerville) at the Ohio State Meet ... Troy returns 5 of their top 6 runners including their top 3 runners ... Returning speed ratings are 137, 127, 121, 103 and 103. 

 

 

  Last Year's (2016) Girl's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals
 
      Pre-Season 2016
                                            NXN                  Finish Order at            Last Year's
      School                State  Score   Region                   NXN 2016                Pre-Season Projection
      --------------------  -----  -----   ------          -----------------------------    -----------------------
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius    NY    160   New York          1   Fayetteville-Manlius  NY  -  #1  pre-season
  2   Great Oak               CA    190   California        2   Davis Senior          CA  -  #4  pre-season
  3   Saratoga Springs        NY    210   New York          3   Great Oak             CA  -  #2  pre-season
  4   Davis Senior            CA    250   California        4   Carmel                IN  -  #5  pre-season
  5   Carmel                  IN    310   Midwest           5   Willmar               MN  -  #6  pre-season
  6   Willmar                 MN    310   Heartland         6   Desert Vista          AZ  -  #16 pre-season
  7   Edina                   MN    330   Heartland         7   Broomfield            CO  -  #30+ group pre-season
  8   Arcadia                 CA    350   California        8   Bozeman               MT  -  #10  pre-season
  9   North Rockland          NY    365   New York          9   Southlake Carroll     TX  -  #30+ group pre-season
  10  Bozeman                 MT    390   Northwest         10  Naperville North      IL  -  #30+ group pre-season
  11  Lake Braddock           VA    410   Southeast         11  Sunset                OR  -  #30+ group pre-season
  12  Blacksburg              VA    410   Southeast         12  Edina                 MN  -  #7  pre-season
  13  Minooka                 IL    410   Midwest           13  Mountain Vista        CO  -  #30+ group pre-season
  14  American Fork           UT    415   Southwest         14  Shenendehowa          NY  -  #30+ group pre-season
  15  Summit                  OR    420   Northwest         15  Keller                TX  -  #21 pre-season
  16  Desert Vista            AZ    435   Southwest         16  Minooka               IL  -  #13 pre-season
  17  Saugus                  CA    435   California        17  Blacksburg            VA  -  #12 pre-season
  18  Centerville             OH    450   Midwest           18  Palos Verdes          CA  -  unranked
  19  Highland-Milford        MI    455   Midwest           19  Lake Braddock         VA  -  #11 pre-season
  20  Jesuit                  OR    460   Northwest         20  North Hunterdon       NJ  -  unranked
  21  Keller                  TX    480   South             21  Souhegan              NH  -  unranked
  22  Birmingham Seaholm      MI    485   Midwest           22  Summit                OR  -  #15 pre-season
  23  Marshall                MN    490   Heartland
  24  Buchanan                CA    495   California
  25  Yorkville               IL    500   Midwest
  26  Camas                   WA    505   Northwest
  27  Batavia                 IL    510   Midwest
  28  Riverside               SC    520   Southeast
  29  Davis Utah              UT    520   Southwest
  30  Esperanza               CA    520   California
  30  Mountain View           ID    520   Northwest
		

 

 Girls Pre-Season Regional Projections

 

Some viewers have asked me to do a Pre-season Regional "Guess" ... Below are some numbers from my worksheets by Region showing teams I considered.

Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception) ... That's why the list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2016 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams ... I needed to find enough data on enough returning runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams got excluded).

I do not believe it is worth spending lots of time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... The pre-season lists help me identify teams that might need to be followed.

 

 

California
    Buchanan                CA    105     California
    Davis Senior            CA    115     California
    Great Oak               CA    135     California
    Palos Verdes            CA    140     California
    Canyon/Anaheim          CA    140     California
    Claremont               CA    145     California
    San Ramon Valley        CA    160     California
    Dana Hills              CA    160     California
    Saugus                  CA    160     California
    Capistrano Valley       CA    175     California
    Campolindo              CA    185     California

Heartland
    Edina                   MN     55     Heartland
    Johnston                IA     70     Heartland
    Minnetonka              MN     75     Heartland
    Sioux Falls Lincoln     SD     95     Heartland
    Willmar                 MN    105     Heartland
    Marshall                MN    110     Heartland
    Wayzata                 MN    110     Heartland

Midwest
    Naperville North        IL    155     Midwest
    Fort Wayne Carroll      IN    155     Midwest
    Centerville             OH    155     Midwest
    Lyons Township          IL    160     Midwest
    Troy                    OH    175     Midwest
    Carmel                  IN    175     Midwest
    Belvidere North         IL    175     Midwest
    Yorkville               IL    185     Midwest
    Glenbard West           IL    185     Midwest
    Vernon Hills            IL    185     Midwest
    Downers Grove South     IL    190     Midwest
    Minster                 OH    230     Midwest
    Minooka                 IL    230     Midwest
    Hinsdale Central        IL    235     Midwest

New York (see NY Girls Projection Page)
    Fayetteville-Manlius    NY     30     New York
    Saratoga                NY    155     New York
    North Rockland          NY    205     New York
    Shenendehowa            NY    235     New York
    Niskayuna               NY    245     New York
    Guilderland             NY    310     New York
    West Genesee            NY    325     New York
    Monroe-Woodbury         NY    330     New York
    Liverpool               NY    355     New York
    Benjamin Cardozo        NY    360     New York
    East Aurora             NY    375     New York
    Notre Dame Academy      NY    380     New York
    Maple Grove             NY    400     New York
    Colonie                 NY    405     New York
    Greenwich               NY    405     New York

Northeast
    North Hunterdon         NJ     75     Northeast
    Milton                  MA     80     Northeast
    Champlain Valley        VT     90     Northeast
    Colts Neck              NJ     95     Northeast
    Pinkerton               NH     95     Northeast
    Tewksbury               MA     95     Northeast
    La Salle Academy        RI     95     Northeast

Northwest
    Sunset                  OR     90     Northwest
    Jesuit                  OR     90     Northwest
    Mountain View           ID     95     Northwest
    Bozeman                 MT    105     Northwest
    Billings Sr             MT    115     Northwest
    Camas                   WA    120     Northwest
    Issaquah                WA    125     Northwest
    Summit                  OR    145     Northwest
    Hellgate                MT    150     Northwest

South
    Keller                  TX     30     South
    Southlake Carroll       TX     55     South
    Marcus                  TX     60     South
    Canyon Randall          TX     80     South

Southeast
    Cardinal Gibbons        NC    145     Southeast
    Pine Crest              FL    160     Southeast
    Blacksburg              VA    160     Southeast
    Niceville               FL    170     Southeast
    Chiles                  FL    175     Southeast
    Auburn                  AL    190     Southeast
    Huntsville              AL    215     Southeast
    Mountain Brook          AL    215     Southeast
    Ravenwood               TN    220     Southeast
    Bolles                  FL    220     Southeast
    George C. Marshall      VA    225     Southeast
    George M. Steinbrenner  FL    230     Southeast
    Westminster             GA    230     Southeast
    Lake Braddock           VA    230     Southeast
    Hoover                  AL    235     Southeast
    Tatnall                 DE    250     Southeast

Southwest
    Broomfield              CO     65     Southwest
    Mountain Vista          CO     65     Southwest
    Battle Mountain         CO    105     Southwest
    Desert Vista            AZ    125     Southwest
    Mountain View-UT        UT    125     Southwest
    Skyline                 UT    135     Southwest
    Timpanogos              UT    145     Southwest
    Pine View               UT    150     Southwest
    Weber                   UT    150     Southwest