National Pre-Season XC 2017
GIRLS Teams - National 2017
Bill Meylan (July 29, 2017)
- Girls - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2016 XC season into 2017
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
- ... Consider performance in championship races
- ... Initially, combine about 85-90 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2017 race results are what count.
I did add some Regional Projections this year.
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2017
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 110 New York
2 Keller TX 285 South
3 Broomfield CO 295 Southwest
4 Buchanan CA 320 California
5 Mountain Vista CO 340 Southwest
6 Davis Senior CA 335 California
7 Sunset OR 350 Northwest
8 Edina MN 370 Heartland
9 Jesuit OR 370 Northwest
10 Great Oak CA 390 California
11 Mountain View-ID ID 395 Northwest
12 Naperville North IL 405 Midwest
13 Saratoga NY 405 New York
14 Fort Wayne Carroll IN 420 Midwest
15 Cardinal Gibbons NC 420 Southeast
16 Centerville OH 425 Midwest
17 Lyons Township IL 425 Midwest
18 North Rockland NY 430 New York
19 Bozeman MT 440 Northwest
20 Palos Verdes CA 445 California
21 Johnston IA 445 Heartland
22 Pine Crest FL 445 Southeast
23 Canyon/Anaheim CA 445 California
24 Billings Sr MT 450 Northwest
25 Troy OH 450 Midwest
26 Southlake Carroll TX 450 South
27 Minnetonka MN 455 Heartland
28 Camas WA 460 Northwest
29 Blacksburg VA 460 Southeast
30 Carmel IN 460 Midwest
30* North Hunterdon NJ 490+ Northeast
30* Milton MA 490+ Northeast
30* Colts Neck NJ 490+ Northeast (updated July 30)
* added above (from below) for multiple team
regional representation from each region
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled a lot:
Claremont CA California
Battle Mountain CO Southwest
Yorkville IL Midwest
Belvidere North IL Midwest
Shenendehowa NY New York
Yorkville IL Midwest
Marcus TX South
Issaquah WA Northwest
San Ramon Valley CA California
Glenbard West IL Midwest
Vernon Hills IL Midwest
Riverside SC Southeast (added Sept 4)
Niceville FL Southeast
Downers Grove South IL Midwest
Saugus CA California
Dana Hills CA California
Chiles FL Southeast
Niskayuna NY New York
Auburn AL Southeast
Sioux Falls Lincoln SD Heartland
Desert Vista AZ Southwest
Mountain View-UT UT Southwest
Capistrano Valley CA California
Minooka IL Midwest
Champlain Valley VT Northeast
Colts Neck NJ Northeast (moved up to #30; omission error of runner)
George C. Marshall VA Southeast
Bolles FL Southeast
Summit OR Northwest
Pinkerton NH Northeast
Campolindo CA California
Skyline UT Southwest
Minster OH Midwest
Willmar MN Heartland
Timpanogos UT Southwest
Wayzata MN Heartland
Ravenwood TN Southeast
Huntsville AL Southeast
Canyon Randall TX South
Huntsville AL Southeast
Hinsdale Central IL Midwest
Westminster GA Southeast
Pine View UT Southwest
Marshall MN Heartland
Weber UT Southwest
Hellgate MT Northwest
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2016 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- Last Year's Pre-Season Projections (Guesses)
- ... 2016 Projections & NXN Results are shown in a table below
- ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2016, I did not identify 3 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list)
- ... 5 of the top 6 teams at NXN 2016 were ranked in my pre-season top 6 teams
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- ... 14 of the top 30 teams above competed at NXN Nationals last year
- ... 8 of the top 10 teams above finished in the top 15 at NXN Nationals last year
- After Fayetteville-Manlius, placement of teams was more difficult than usually for the girls ... No obvious 2nd and 3rd selections.
- Major switching of teams #2 through #20 is very possible.
...
Fayetteville-Manlius returns their top 5 girls from last year's
winning team that won by 140 points ... Not much more to say ... More
info about FM is available from my
NY Pre-season Team Projections, and
detailed info on the top five FM runners entering the season is available from
my Top NY Girls Profiles ... Returning
speed ratings are 147, 140 139, 138 and 132.#2 - Keller TX ... Keller finished 15th at NXN Nationals last year and they return their entire team ... Keller raced exceptionally well in winning the Texas State Meet and very nicely at the NXR South Regional ... Their performance at NXN Nationals was sub-par, and that concerns me with ranking them #2 ... However, their speed ratings give them an advantage on everybody but FM ... Returning speed ratings are 141, 134, 130, 118 and 111.
#3 - Broomfield CO ... Broomfield finished 7th at NXN Nationals last year ... all six runners from NXN were juniors, so a team of seniors could be a great starting point for an outstanding season ... Returning speed ratings are 129, 129, 122, 118 and 115.
#4 - Buchanan CA ... Buchanan enters the season as the top-rated team in California ... Buchanan finished 5th in the California State Meet merge, but they return their top 5 runners from the CA State Meet (the top two had speed ratings of 141) ... During spring track, five Buchanan girls ran the 3200 meters between 10:28 and 11:04, and the bodes very well for Buchanan ... Returning speed ratings are 141, 141, 120, 113 and 112.
#5 - Mountain Vista CO ... Mountain Vista finished 13th at NXN Nationals last year ... Mountain Vista won the NXR Southwest Regional ... they return 5 of their top 6 runners, and their top two runners were freshmen ... Returning speed ratings are 131, 131, 125, 115 and 114.
#6 - Davis Senior CA ... Davis Senior finished 2nd at NXN in both 2016 and 2015 ... they are returning 5 of 7 runners from CA States and NXN, but are losing two scorers ... Returning runners include Olivia O'Keeffe (143 speed rating at States), Sophia Lodigiani (132 speed rating at States) and Aniela Mitchell (126 speed rating at States) ... Davis Senior has proven they can perform in the big races, and that gives that gives Davis Senior extra credit in my opinion ... Returning speed ratings are 140, 130, 125, 117 and 102.
#7 - Sunset OR ... Sunset finish 11th at NXN Nationals last year ... they return 6 of 7 runners including the top 4 scorers at NXN ... among the returning runners is Ember Stratton who finished second overall and is the top returning NXN runner (her individual profile is available from the National Top Individual Girls page) ... Sunset has a very strong top 3 runners as a core ... Kelly Makin ran very well during track [800m (2:09.07 at Brooks PR), 1500m (4:28.96 at Portland Track Festival)] ... Returning speed ratings are 150, 134, 132, 106 and 100.
#8 - Edina MN ... Edina finished 12th at NXN Nationals last year ... Edina won the NXR Heartland Regional ... they return 3 of their top 5 runners, but may be able to reload for the coming season ... Returning speed ratings are 131, 128, 125, 118 and 100.
#9 - Jesuit OR ... Jesuit did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 6th at NXR Northwest (a sub-par performance) ... Jesuit did beat Sunset at the Oregon State Meet ... they return their top 6 runners ... Jesuit could be very good this coming season ... Returning speed ratings are 125, 124, 124, 123 and 107.
#10 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 3rd at NXN last year, 3rd in 2015 and 2nd in 2014 ... Great Oak was hurt by graduation (5 of 7 runners from NXN and States graduated) ... However, Great Oak has excellent depth and I am giving them credit for reloading ... Raw speed rating numbers place them about #18 ... Returning speed ratings are 134, 125, 118, 108 and 107.
#11 - Mountain View ID ... Mountain View did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 5th at NXR Northwest ... Mountain View returns 6 of 7 runners including top runner Lexy Hallday who finished 16th at NXN as an individual (her individual profile is available from the National Top Individual Girls page) ... Returning speed ratings are 150, 125, 115, 112 and 110.
#12 - Naperville North IL ... Naperville North finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year, 14th in 2015 and 4th in 2014 ... Multiple appearances at NXN Nationals is a big plus ... Naperville North returns their top 3 runners as a solid core ... Naperville North was 2nd to Carmel at NXR Midwest last year ... Returning speed ratings are 136, 130, 128, 108 and 100.
#13 - Saratoga Springs NY ... Saratoga is a perennial competitor at NXN ... they have competed at NXN Nationals in 11 of the 13 years that NXN has operated ... Last year, however, Saratoga finished 5th at NXR New York in a sub-par performance ... Top runner Kelsey Chmiel finished 5th at NXN Nationals as an individual and returns this season (her individual profile is available from the National Top Individual Girls page) ... more info is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections ... Returning speed ratings are 154, 121, 116, 115 and 113.
#14 - Fort Wayne Carroll IN ... Fort Wayne Carroll did not compete in the NXR Midwest Regional last year ... they finished 2nd to Carmel at the Indiana State Meet with speed ratings of 137-130-120-118-103 for the five scoring runners (all five return this season) ... Those numbers get Fort Wayne Carroll ranked by my ranking method.
#15 - Cardinal Gibbons NC ... Cardinal Gibbons did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 3rd at the NXR Southeast Regional with an "At-Large" worthy performance, but were not selected ... They won the North Carolina State with an excellent performance ... Cardinal Gibbons returns 6 of 7 runners, including their top runner ... Returning speed ratings are 133, 130, 119, 106 and 106.
#16 - Centerville OH ... Centerville did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 5th at NXR Midwest ... they won the Ohio State Meet ... Centerville returns their entire team an is one of the favorites to qualify from the Midwest Region ... Returning speed ratings are 128, 120, 119, 114 and 113.
#17 - Lyons Township IL ... Lyons Township did not qualify for NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 12th at NXR Midwest and 5th at the Illinois State Meet ... Lyons Township returns their top 6 runners from the State Meet (2 of those runners did not run at the NXR regional) ... Returning speed ratings are 133, 131, 120, 108 and 102.
#18 - North Rockland NY ... North Rockland finished 10th at NXN Nationals in 2015 ... they did not qualify last year after a 4th-place finish at NXR New York with an unfortunate sub-par performance ... North Rockland has a very strong top duo in Katelyn Tuohy (#11 ranked individual in the nation - see the National Top Individual Girls page) and Haleigh Morales (see my Top NY Girls Profiles) ... more info is available from my NY Pre-season Team Projections ... Returning speed ratings are 148, 137, 111, 109 and 101.
#19 - Bozeman MT ... Bozeman finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year and 19th in 2015 ... Bozeman won the NXR Northwest Regional last year ... they are returning 5 of 7 runners, but graduated two good runners ... Returning speed ratings are 142, 115, 112, 112 and 111.
#20 - Palos Verdes CA ...Palos Verdes finished 18th at NXN Nationals last year ...they finished 3rd in the California State Meet merge and were selected as an At-Large team ... two of their scoring runners graduated, but they can still score decently ... Returning speed ratings are 132, 125, 119, 114 and 100.
#21 - Johnston IA ... Johnston finished 5th at the NXR Heartland Regional after handily winning the Iowa State Meet ... Johnston is returning 6 of 7 runners including their top runner ... Returning speed ratings are 132, 122, 117, 114 and 103.
#22 - Pine Crest FL ... Pine Crest finished 5th at the NXR Southeast Regional after winning the Florida State 2A Championship ... Pine Crest returns 5 of their top 6 runners including their top runner (Tsion Yared) ... Last year, 4 were freshmen and one was an 8th-grader ... Returning speed ratings are 140, 127, 122, 106 and 97.
#23 - Canyon/Anaheim CA ... Canyon/Anaheim finished 8th in the California State Meet merge ... Canyon/Anaheim returns all 7 runners from States ... Returning speed ratings are 144, 117, 115, 115 and 109.
#24 - Billings Sr MT ... Billings Sr finished 7th at the NXR Northwest Regional last year after finishing 2nd (to Bozeman) at the Montana State Meet ... Billings Sr returns 6 of 7 runners including their top 3 and top runner (Tiahna Vladic) ... Returning speed ratings are 148, 123, 120, 103 and 102.
#25 - Troy OH ... Troy finished 10th at the NXR Midwest Regional after finishing 2nd (to Centerville) at the Ohio State Meet ... Troy returns 5 of their top 6 runners including their top 3 runners ... Returning speed ratings are 137, 127, 121, 103 and 103.