National Pre-Season XC 2017
BOYS Teams - National 2017
Bill Meylan (July 29, 2017)
- Boys - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2016 XC season into 2017
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
- ... Consider performance in championship races
- ... Initially, combine about 70 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2017 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing -
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess"
.
I did add some Regional Projections this year.
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2017
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Loudoun Valley VA 220 Southeast
2 Great Oak CA 235 California
3 Downers Grove North IL 300 Midwest
4 Carmel IN 320 Midwest
5 Roosevelt CA 325 California
6 Wayzata MN 330 Heartland
7 Christian Brothers NJ 340 Northeast
8 St. Xavier (Lou) KY 360 Southeast
9 Crater OR 370 Northwest
10 Green Hope NC 375 Southeast
11 The Woodlands TX 385 South
12 Princeton NJ 385 Northeast
13 Timpanogos UT 395 Southwest
14 Dana Hills CA 395 California
15 Bellarmine-CA CA 395 California
16 Burnt Hills NY 400 New York
17 Springville UT 410 Southwest
18 Central Valley WA 410 Northwest
19 Saint John's MA 420 Northeast
20 Loyola CA 425 California
21 Davis UT UT 430 Southwest
22 Staples CT 440 Northeast
23 Pleasant Valley IA 440 Heartland
24 York IL 445 Midwest
25 Brentwood Academy TN 450 Southeast
26 St. Anthony's NY 450 New York
27 Fairport NY 455 New York
28 Palmer Ridge CO 460 Southwest
29 Bozeman MT 470 Northwest
30 Council Rock North PA 480 Northeast
30* Flower Mound TX* 480* South
30* Kingwood TX* 480* South
* added above (from below) for multiple team
regional representation from each region
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled ... some could be above as well.
American Fork UT Southwest
Mount Tabor NC Southeast
Fort Wayne Carroll IN Midwest
Niskayuna NY New York
Mahomet-Seymour IL Midwest
Trinity Prep FL Southeast
Mountain Brook AL Southeast
Blue Springs MO Midwest
Neuqua Valley IL Midwest
Desert Vista AZ Southwest
Bolles FL Southeast
Fayetteville-Manlius NY New York
Dublin CA California (added July 31)
St. Francis (MV) CA California
Bellarmine Prep WA Northwest
Laramie WY Northwest
La Salle Academy RI Northeast
Corunna MI Midwest
Hudson OH Midwest
North Central WA Northwest
West Anchorage AK Northwest
Star Valley WY Northwest
Mountain Vista CO Southwest
Jesuit OR Northwest
Dulaney MD Southeast
Wheaton Warrenville So IL Midwest
Severna Park MD Southeast
Summit OR Northwest
Eisenhower WA Northwest
Woodlands College Park TX South
Fayetteville AR South
Trinity (Louisville) KY Southeast
Concord NH Northeast
Ferris WA Northwest
Millard West NE Heartland
St. Thomas Aquinas KS Heartland
Sioux Falls Lincoln SD Heartland
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2016 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- Last Year's Pre-Season Projections (Guesses)
- ... 2016 Projections & NXN Results are shown in a table below
- ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2016, I did not identify 6 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list)
- ... The top 8 teams at NXN 2016 were all ranked in my pre-season top 17 teams
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- ... 11 of the top 30 teams above competed at NXN Nationals last year
- ... 7 of the top 14 teams above finished in the top 14 at NXN Nationals last year
- Loudoun Valley and Great Oak are the top two teams by a significant margin ... However, I expect other teams will step-up and challenge the top two.
#1 - Loudoun Valley VA ... Loudoun Valley finished 3rd at the NXR Southeast Regional last year and were not selected as an At-Large team for NXN ... Loudoun Valley won the Virginia 4A State Championship with an impressive performance ... the top 6 runners from the State Meet return, and that alone would have gotten Loudoun Valley ranked this pre-season ... But Loudoun Valley is getting a major boost from transfer runner Sam Affolder ... Sam Affolder ran for Carlisle PA last year and he qualified for Foot Locker Nationals (2nd at Foot Locker Northeast - also ranked 14th nationally as an individual entering this coming season - see the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page for his complete profile).
Here are general speed ratings
for the seven Loudoun Valley runners from last season:
.. Sam Affolder Sr - 190
.. Peter Morris Sr - 187
.. Colton Bogucki Sr - 182
.. Jacob Hunter Jr - 177
.. Jacob Windle Jr - 164
.. Chase Dawson Sr - 163
.. Kevin Carlson So - 158
Also read where Loudoun Valley may be getting another transfer
who may help ... These are the best team speed ratings for any team
entering the season, and that gets Loudoun Valley ranked #1 ...
As a side note, those numbers would not have won NXN Nationals
last year ... Loudoun Valley and Great Oak enter the
season with a decent margin on the other teams, but a bunch of teams
ranked below seem capable of stepping-up and being serious challengers.
#2 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 6th at NXN Nationals last year ... Great Oak won NXN Nationals in 2015 ... Great Oak lost 2 of their top 4 runners to graduation, but return a talented core of runners and have some good returning JV runners ... Returning speed ratings of 183, 181, 175, 172 an 171 have Great Oak ranked #2.
#3 - Downers Grove North IL ... Downers Grove North finished 12th at NXN Nationals last year ... They finished 2nd to Neuqua Valley at both the NXR Midwest Regional and IL State Meet ... Downers Grove North loses 2 of their top 5 runners to graduation, but returns a talented group of 5 runners ... Returning speed ratings from States are 182, 176, 176, 174 and 169.
#4 - Carmel IN ... The Carmel Boys last raced at NXN Nationals in 2014 (16th-place) ... Last year, Carmel finished 7th at the NXR Midwest Regional and 2nd at the Indiana State Championships ... They return their top 5 runners from NXR Midwest (who were also top 4 at States) ... Carmel's experience (both girls and boys) at NXN Nationals is a plus ... Returning speed ratings are 182, 181, 174, 169 and 168.
#5 - Roosevelt CA ... Roosevelt (technically Eleanor Roosevelt High School) finished 6th in the California State Meet merge last year ... Roosevelt returns their top 4 runners from States plus #6 (a freshman) ... Returning speed ratings from States are 183, 181, 175, 171 and 165.
#6 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... they finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year and 14th in 2015 ... Wayzata won NRX Heartland handily last year ... they return 4 of their top 7 (including top runner Khalid Hussein), and they had a deep team ... Returning speed ratings are 190, 175, 173, 170 and 167.
#7 -Christian Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and 2nd in 2013) ... they finished 7th at NXN Nationals last year after winning the NXR Northeast Regional ... Christian Brothers graduated 4 runners from their top 7, however, they are typically a very deep team so I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt with respect to reloading ... Returning speed ratings are 182, 178, 174, 169 and 166.
#8 - St. Xavier (Louisville) KY ... St. Xavier (Lou) finished 13th at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 2nd at the NXR Southeast Regional beating Loudoun Valley ... they return 6 of 7 runners from States and NXR ... Returning speed ratings are 180, 175, 172, 171 and 165.
#9 - Crater OR ... Crater finished 5th at the NXR Northwest Regional after winning the Oregon State 5A Championship ... Crater returns 4 of their top 5 runners including top runner Andy Monroe (who was invited to the Nike Elite Camp) ... Returning speed ratings are 188, 178, 173, 171 and 155.
#10 - Green Hope NC ... Green Hope finished 6th at the NXR Southeast Regional after finishing 2nd at the North Carolina State Meet (lost by 1 point) ... they return 6 of 7 runners including their top 4 ... Returning speed ratings are 179, 178 171, 169 and 164.
#11 - The Woodlands TX ... The Woodlands is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... they finished 8th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 3rd at the NXR South Regional (sub-par performance) and impressively winning the Texas State 6A Championship ... The Woodlands graduated 3 of their top 6 runners, but had good depth ... Returning speed ratings are 180, 175 170, 169 and 167.
#12 - Princeton NJ ... Princeton finished 7th at the NXR Northeast Regional after winning the New Jersey Meet of Champions (beating Christian Brothers by 5 points) ... they return 5 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are 183, 179 174, 164 and 162.
#13 - Timpanogos UT ... Timpanogos finished 4th at the NXR Southwest Regional (lost to 3rd-place Springville by 6 points, and Springville was selected as an At-Large team to NXN) ... Timpanogos finished 2nd in the Utah State 4A race ... they return 5 of their top 6 (top runner Joe Benson graduated) ... Returning speed ratings are 182, 174 170, 168 and 167.
#14 - Dana Hills CA ... Dana Hills finished 14th at NXN Nationals last year and 3rd in 2015 ... they finished 3rd in California State Meet merge and were invited as an At-Large team ... Dana Hills returns 5 runners from NXN (4 from States) including top runner Jack Landgraf ... Returning speed ratings are 183, 172 170, 170 and 164.
#15 - Bellarmine CA ... Bellarmine did not finish in the top 10 of the California State Meet merge, but get ranked this pre-season based on returning speed ratings and a top runner ... Bellarmine returns their top 3 runners (plus #5 and #6 from States) ... Top runner Meika Beaudoin-Rosse is ranked 12th nationally as an individual entering this coming season (see the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page for his complete profile) ... Returning speed ratings are 190, 173 171, 166 and 165.
#16 - Burnt Hills NY ... Burnt Hills is the top ranked New York team entering the 2017 season ... Burnt Hills finished 2nd at NY Federation Championships and 7th at the New York NXN Regional ... their top 4 runners from both those races return ... Burnt Hills appears to be improving based on track results ... Returning speed ratings are 177, 176 175, 166 and 162.
#17 - Springville UT ... Springville finished 15th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 3rd at the NXR Southwest Regional and being selected as an At-Large team ... they finished 3rd at the Utah State 4A race (beaten by Timpanogos who was 2nd to Olympus) ... Springville returns 5 of 7 runners including top runner Grant Gardner ... Returning speed ratings are 188, 183 168, 162 and 160.
#18 - Central Valley WA ... Central Valley finished 2nd in the Washington State 4A race followed by a sub-par performance at the NXR Northwest Regional ... Central Valley returns their top 5 runners (a major factor in being ranked this pre-season) ... Returning speed ratings are 179, 177 171, 166 and 164.
#19 - Saint John's MA ... Saint John's finished 6th at the NXR Northeast Regional ... they return 6 of 7 runners including their top runner (Patrick Craemer) ... Returning speed ratings are 187, 174 171, 164 and 162.
#20 - Loyola CA ... Loyola finished 5th in the California State Meet merge last year ... they return 5 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are 178, 176 169, 168 and 163.
#21 - Davis UT ... Davis UT is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... they finished 4th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 2nd (to American Fork) at the NXR Southwest Regional ... Davis graduated 6 of the 7 runners from their NXN and Utah State teams, but they did have a high quality JV squad and I am giving them credit for ability to reload quickly ... Raw numbers place them about 35th nationally ... Returning speed ratings are 174, 170 169, 165 and 162.
#22 - Staples CT ... Staples finished 22nd at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 2nd (to Christian Brothers) at the NXR Northeast Regional ... they return 4 of 7 runners (4 of the top 5) ... Returning speed ratings are 178, 174 173, 171 and 152 (I am guessing #5 will be a bit higher).
#23 - Pleasant Valley IA ...Pleasant Valley finished 5th at the NXR Heartland Regional after finishing 2nd (to Dowling Catholic) at the Iowa State Meet ... All 7 runners from NXR Heartland return ... Returning speed ratings are 181, 170 168, 166 and 164.
#24 - York IL ... York has competed at NXN Nationals multiple times in past years ... York beat Fayetteville-Manlius in the first-ever NXN in 2004 ... York finished 11th at the NXR Midwest Regional last year after finishing 16th at the Illinois State Meet ... York returns their top five runners, including top runner Charlie Kern ... Returning speed ratings are 189, 182 164, 163 and 162.
#25 - Brentwood Academy TN ... Brentwood Academy is a different school from Brentwood High who finished 3rd at NXN last year (Brodey Hasty was Brentwood High's top runner) ... Brentwood Academy finished 5th at the NXR Southeast Regional last year after winning the Tennessee State AA Championship (Brentwood High won the TN AAA title) ... Brentwood Academy returns their top 4 runners ... Returning speed ratings are 182, 175 168, 167 and 161.
NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.
Pre-season ranking is part data and
part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant
amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large
... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion
... Some
Regional Projection lists are
available at the bottom of this page.