My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State and other teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2015 XC season into 2016 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results in 2016 will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2016 race results are what count.
I did add some Regional Projections this year.
August 2, 2016 Update ... Thanks to Rob Monroe for update info ... Mountain View Idaho has been added at the end of the Top 30 list ... Mountain View ID finished 7th at NXN Northwest last year and returns all runners, and they are adding an incoming freshman who ran a 1600 meters in 4:46.47 on May 28th as an 8th-grader ... I placed them at 30th so the other teams stay the same as initially posted.
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2016
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 160 New York
2 Great Oak CA 190 California
3 Saratoga Springs NY 210 New York
4 Davis Senior CA 250 California
5 Carmel IN 310 Midwest
6 Willmar MN 310 Heartland
7 Edina MN 330 Heartland
8 Arcadia CA 350 California
9 North Rockland NY 365 New York
10 Bozeman MT 390 Northwest
11 Lake Braddock VA 410 Southeast
12 Blacksburg VA 410 Southeast
13 Minooka IL 410 Midwest
14 American Fork UT 415 Southwest
15 Summit OR 420 Northwest
16 Desert Vista AZ 435 Southwest
17 Saugus CA 435 California
18 Centerville OH 450 Midwest
19 Highland-Milford MI 455 Midwest
20 Jesuit OR 460 Northwest
21 Keller TX 480 South
22 Birmingham Seaholm MI 485 Midwest
23 Marshall MN 490 Heartland
24 Buchanan CA 495 California
25 Yorkville IL 500 Midwest
26 Camas WA 505 Northwest
27 Batavia IL 510 Midwest
28 Riverside SC 520 Southeast
29 Davis Utah UT 520 Southwest
30 Esperanza CA 520 California
30 Mountain View ID 520 Northwest (updated Aug 2, 2016)
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled a lot:
New Trier IL Midwest
Broomfield CO Southwest
Claremont CA California
Wayzata MN Heartland
Milton MA Northeast
Chandler AZ Southwest
Smithson Valley TX South
Southlake Carroll TX South
Poly (Long Beach) CA California
Naperville North IL Midwest
Mountain Vista CO Southwest
Guilderland NY New York
Prospect IL Midwest
Sunset OR Northwest
Eagle ID Northwest
Serrano CA California
Northville MI Midwest
The Bolles School FL Southeast
Daviess County KY Southeast
Mountain Brook AL Southeast
Webster Thomas NY New York
Minnetonka MN Heartland
Shenendehowa NY New York
Corning NY New York
Ridge NJ Northeast
Unionville PA Northeast
La Salle Academy RI Northeast
Monroe-Woodbury NY New York
Winter Park FL Southeast
Lewisville Marcus TX South
Tolland CT Northeast
Ventura CA California
Westview CA California
Xavier Col Prep AZ Southwest
Billings Sr MT Northwest
Tatnall DE Southeast
Bismarck High ND Heartland
Walter Johnson MD Southeast
Newton South MA Northeast
S.L.V. CA California
Lewisville Hebron TX South
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2015 seasonal speed ratings
(sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I had to)
... Speed
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season
).
...
Fayetteville-Manlius returns four runners from last year's team
including 3 scorers, and that forms a good returning nucleus for a
strong team.