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Pre-Season XC 2016

GIRLS Teams - New York State 2016

Bill Meylan (July 24, 2016)

 

[ Combined Teams ] .. [ Class A ] .. [ Class B ] .. [ Class C ] .. [ Class D ] .. [ CHSAA - AIS - PSAL ]

Girls - Potential Top Overall Contenders & Class Contenders

Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.

What good are pre-season rankings?
 (1) a fun topic of conversation during the summer
 (2) beneficial in gathering background information for the upcoming season

Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.

To a large extent, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2015 XC season into 2016 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below ... With rare exceptions, I ignored last year's modified runners.

I limited the Combined Class list to 37 teams after starting with 70+ teams.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... I posted scores by individual class because some people are interested ... A lot can change between mid-July and November.

 

 New York GIRLS Teams - Combined Classes 2016

                   Pre-Season Projection - New York Girls Team Contenders - 2016


         ---------------------------------------
              Scores Using Top 37 Teams
         ---------------------------------------
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------

    1    Fayetteville-Manlius     75     (03-A )
    2    Saratoga                 90     (02-A )
    3    North Rockland          190     (01-A )
    4    Guilderland             315     (02-A )
    5    Monroe-Woodbury         320     (09-A )
    6    Corning                 375     (04-A )
    7    Shenendehowa            380     (02-A )
    6    Webster Thomas          395     (05-A )
    9    Pearl River             405     (01-B )
    10   Shoreham Wading River   405     (11-B )
    11   Colonie                 425     (02-A )
    12   Niskayuna               480     (02-A )
    13   Rush-Henrietta          490     (05-A )
    14   Clarence                500     (06-A )
    15   Syosset                 505     (08-A )
    16   John Jay CR             510     (01-B )
    17   East Aurora             510     (06-B )
    18   Elmira District         545     (04-A )
    19   Burnt Hills             550     (02-B )
    20   West Genesee            565     (03-A )
    21   Pittsford Sutherland    570     (05-B )
    22   Suffern                 585     (01-A )
    23   Sachem East             600     (11-A )
    24   Bronxville              610     (01-C )
    25   Greenwich               615     (02-D )
    26   West Seneca West        615     (06-A )
    27   Bayport-Blue Pt         620     (11-B )
    28   Canandaigua             620     (05-B )
    29   Warwick Valley          635     (09-A )
    30   Notre Dame Academy      635     (CHSAA)
    31   Ithaca                  640     (04-A )
    32   Newfane                 640     (06-C )
    33   Honeoye Falls-Lima      640     (05-B )
    34   Conv Sacred Heart       645     (AIS  )
    35   Pittsford Mendon        650     (05-B )
    36   Queensbury              655     (02-A )
    37   Fairport                670     (05-A )

Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2015 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed ratings were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers because I wanted to ... and then adjusted final scores for various reasons.

Note ... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team abilities in a combined race ... I included 37 teams to show some depth.

In General ... The top three teams, Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga and North Rockland, are the three New York teams that competed at NXN Nationals last year ..... Fayetteville-Manlius is the defending NXN National champion and FM has won 9 of the last 10 NXN National titles ... Overall, I give Fayetteville-Manlius the advantage because of their winning tradition and an ability to reload ... Saratoga is typically deep in talent.

The uncertainty factors include the ability to reload effectively and the impact of new runners, either expected or otherwise ... My term for this is "new blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time XC runners, etc) which I discussed in an article 9 years ago ... For example, how much of an impact will new runners have for FM and Saratoga?? ... How much will returning XC runners improve from last year?? ... What about effective team depth or the impact of an injury/illness??

Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga and North Rockland have additional comments below in the Class A section.

Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier.

 

 

 Class A - Girls ... Pre-Season 2016
 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Fayetteville-Manlius     65     (03-A )
    2    Saratoga                 80     (02-A )
    3    North Rockland          150     (01-A )
    4    Guilderland             235     (02-A )
    5    Monroe-Woodbury         235     (09-A )
    6    Corning                 285     (04-A )
    7    Shenendehowa            295     (02-A )
    8    Webster Thomas          295     (05-A )
    9    Colonie                 320     (02-A )
    10   Niskayuna               360     (02-A )
    11   Rush-Henrietta          365     (05-A )
    12   Clarence                380     (06-A )
    13   Syosset                 385     (08-A )
    14   Elmira District         400     (04-A )
    15   West Genesee            425     (03-A )
    16   Suffern                 435     (01-A )
    17   Sachem East             450     (11-A )
    18   West Seneca West        455     (06-A )
    19   Warwick                 475     (09-A )
    20   Ithaca                  480     (04-A )
    21   Port Washington         495     (08-A )
    22   Queensbury              495     (02-A )
    23   Bay Shore               495     (11-A )
    24   Williamsville N         510     (06-A )
    25   Shaker                  515     (02-A )
    26   Fairport                520     (05-A )
    27   Ward Melville           525     (11-A )
		

Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga and North Rockland are the top three teams in Class A ... Individual profiles for five FM, seven Saratoga and two North Rockland girls are available on the Girls Individual Profiles page.

Fayetteville-Manlius returns 4 runners from last year's State Class A and NXN Championship team ... FM lost 3 good runners to graduation from the State and NXN teams including 2 scorers ... With stiff competition from Saratoga, FM will need to reload at least one new effective scorer in order to repeat as the top team in NY ... FM has developed at least one new "high-level" performer every year since they began their "national" winning in 2006 ... So I give FM the benefit-of-the-doubt and expect it will happen again this year.

Saratoga returns all runners from last year's State and NXN teams ... There were four freshmen and two sophomores on last year's NXN team ... Saratoga again looks deep at a high level ... Saratoga has the ingredients of a top State and National team including a top individual runner and a deep talented team ... But Fayetteville-Manlius has set the bar very high ... Where else in the US could a team finish a very decent 4th at NXN Nationals, return their entire team plus have other good runners, and not be favored to win in their own State??

North Rockland returns their top three runners from States, Federations and NXN Nationals ... North Rockland finished 10th at NXN Nationals ... These three runners form a high-level nucleus of nationally-ranked team (and they will be nationally-ranked).

Guilderland finished 5th at NY Federations and return all five scorers from Federations ... Monroe-Woodbury finished 3rd at Federations and return five of their top six runners (but their top runner graduated) ... Corning returns their top six runners from Federations (including top-ranked Jessica Lawson).

 

Some Class A Returning Runners by Team 

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2015
                           ---------  --------------------------------
Fayetteville-Manlius
  Claire Walters        9     145     146 124 152 143 142 137 129 123
  Palmer Madsen         11    139     140 140 128 134 139 134 134 123
  Sophia Ryan           11    136     135 137 133 120 144 133 120 123
  Rebecca Walters       11    134     121 135 138 131 137 126 129 107
  Phoebe White          9     120     123 121 85 104
  Christy Berge'        12    111     111 112 99
  Reilly Madsen         12    110     105 115 104 95
  Keita Peden           12    100     102 95 90
  Alexis Villalba       11    98      102 89 79
  Jess Aspinall         12    95      96 92 90
  Maya Chiesa           12    79      79 82 31
  Emily Cook            10    76      83 61 45

Saratoga Springs
  Kelsey Chmiel         10    153     155 152 148 147 151 146 146 132
  Peyton Engborg        11    135     133 137 132 130 137 137 129 124
  Paris Fenoff          10    132     131 130 134 123 130 135 130 131
  Alexandra Delnicki    10    122     122 116 120 113 119 130 118 118
  Caroline Starace      11    121     115 122 115 109 122 128 118 116
  Ciara Knott           10    119     117 113 117 110 113 127 120 125
  Amelia Mahoney        12    117+    116 97 112 122 129 128 120
  Keellyn Cummings      11    115     115
  Samantha Vetter       11    113     112 116 99 103 103
  Madeline Tooker       12    110     104 112 104 112
  Mariellen Penzer      12    108     111 98 106 86
  Carley Vetter         11    101     106 95 75 92
  Megan Morin           10    101     101
  Hannah Hertik         11    96      100 85 84
  Sija Los              12    88      88
  Casey Reeder          11    75      81 63 68 59

North Rockland
  Katelyn Tuohy         9     142     136 142 143 136 146 145 143 145 137 135 128
  Alex Harris           12    138     132 128 142 130 138 140 136 146 136 136
  Haleigh Morales       9     126     130 116 127 126 127 121 120 117 117 106 102
  Kerry O'Connor        11    111     113 113 103 99 107 111 92 97 110 100 85
  Noelle Feeney         11    105     108 97 106 92 100 100 106 101 82
  Kathryn Konopko       11    73      70 74 65 65 79 69
  Sara Leonard          12    64      62 42 70

Guilderland
  Emily Bini            9     139     131 143 133 140 139 139 128 122 114
  Olivia Fanshawe       10    119     114 113 121 123 124 113 109
  Christine Fish        11    116     121 103 120 114 108 99 93 98 108
  Erin Miceli           11    104     92 97 111 111 107 106 104 86 90 101
  Anastasia Filippone   12    100     101 92 102 101 91 57 66
  Hannah Gallagher      11    91      76 96 97 88 96 82 75 82 70 80
  Margot Tanner         9     90      78 79 98
  Anna Capuano          10    88      67 88 96 73
  Jasmine Roberts       12    88      62 91 88 85 76 93 97
  Tara Peda             11    81      76 84 78 51 81
  Alexa Thompson        11    80      65 85 80 76 65 72

Monroe-Woodbury
  Julia Hoyt            11    121     126 105 120 120 113 108 117 109 98
  Kiersten Kral         12    113     109 102 109 120 111 117 129 111 111
  Sarah Kern            10    113     111 107 116 114 106 110 112
  Annie Kurdziel        12    106     111 94 110 103 101 93 95 98 96
  Daniella Napoli       10    106     95 98 112
  Alina Kasparsons      12    105     104 97 111 108 91 105 95 89
  Jessica Pidgeon       10    103     104 102 100
  Kristina Boylan       11    102     99 106 92 103 81 86
  Erin Cytryn           11    100     98 103 101 99 84 76
  Emma Sicurella        11    82      84 77 76 84 67 75
  Marina Alzapiedi      11    81      84 77 72 77 69
  Rachel Hirschkind     10    80      81 18 91

Corning
  Jessica Lawson        12    153     150 152 154 152 157 139 153 147 151
  Kate Mertus           11    120     118 119 122 119 119 121 102
  Emily Niu             12    106     104 105 106 108 93 107 92
  Alivia Collins        11    102     95 102 107 90 95 86
  Brynne Ketchum        10    94      94 88 97 97 86 94 71
  Maeve Holman          12    92      88 78 98 78 107 63 70
  Pearl Cooper          12    86      82 81 91 87 71 63
  Marian Cooper         12    81      73 80 65 99 65
  Grace Bickham         11    71      59 51 81
  Emma Mason            12    58      58 56

Shenedehowa
  Julia Zachgo          12    128     125 128 110 133 132 131 118
  Charlotte Hartman     11    112     104 103 111 127 89
  Olivia Lomascolo      11    107     80 114 109 102 91
  Elise Maddalone       11    100     88 99 105 88
  McKenzie Ryan         10    97      97 81 102 98 88
  Taylor Leggett        11    96      90 95 99 86 77
  Thiziri Bouzidi       10    95      97 93 90
  Hannah Reale          11    95++    95
  Hillary Halpern       10    88      90 82 81
  Anna Wiedmann         11    84      85 79
  Emily DiNallo         11    83      83 83 75 60

Webster Thomas
  Amanda Vestri         12    124+    124 107 126 129 127
  Claire Ashton         12    113     107 109 116 115 113
  Natalie Neamtu        12    103++   108 90 102 64 88
  Kate Welch            11    101     100 100 101 104 96
  Taylor Zeigler        12    101     93 100 104 99
  Julia Witt            12    88      89 84
  Alena Wisniewski      12    88      72 83 93
  Haley Brennan         10    83      83
  Kelsey Whelan         11    71      61 73 71
		

 

 Class B - Girls ... Pre-Season 2016
 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Pearl River             135     (01-B )
    2    Shoreham Wading River   135     (11-B )
    3    John Jay CR             160     (01-B )
    4    East Aurora             160     (06-B )
    5    Burnt Hills             170     (02-B )
    6    Pittsford Sutherland    225     (05-B )
    7    Bayport-Blue Pt         230     (11-B )
    8    Pittsford Mendon        235     (05-B )
    9    Honeoye Falls-Lima      245     (05-B )
    10   Cornwall                270     (09-B )
    11   Canandaigua             275     (05-B )
    12   Jamesville Dewitt       280     (03-B )
    13   Tappan Zee              280     (01-B )
    14   Goshen                  300     (09-B )
    15   Sweet Home              305     (06-B )
    16   Westhill-Ludden         340     (03-B )
    17   Brewster                360     (01-B )
    18   Emma Willard            385     (02-B )
    19   Mercy                   385     (05-B )
    20   Pioneer                 400     (06-B )
		

Pearl River and Shoreham Wading River are the two favorites in Class B entering the 2016 season ... Pearl River lost to John Jay CR at last year's Section 1 Championships (by 24 points) and John Jay CR won States over Shoreham Wading River (by 19 points) ... Pearl River returns their entire sectional team ... Shoreham Wading River finished 2nd at States last year and return 6 of 7 runners including their top three (and top-runner Katherine Lee) ... It is actually too close to call at the top, but Pearl River won the coin-flip.

East Aurora won Class C handily last year, but move-up to Class B this year ... East Aurora graduated two top runners, but they usually very good at reloading talent quickly ... John Jay CR is the defending Class B champion and return 6 of 7 runners from their State Meet team (their top runner graduated).

 

Some Class B Returning Runners by Team 

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2015
                           ---------  --------------------------------
Pearl River
  Mary Borkoski         10    127     127 124 126 124 127 130 123 124 127 118 117
  Erin Clinton          11    107     105 105 102 113 112 107 109 108 72 91
  Ann McCormack         11    106     100 107 107 107 96 104 111 95 84
  Kaitlyn Harding       12    105     92 108 108 98 106 107 94 81
  Jesse McCarthy        12    100     91 98 106 90 95 99 104 84 73
  Grace Raffa           12    92      89 92 96 90 87 88 90 75 70
  Jessica McDermott     10    88      86 87 89 77
  Sami Roberts          9     77      74 79 69
  Kristen O'Neill       11    74      75 66 68 75
  Stephanie Magrino     10    73      76 67 66
  Sarah Hayes           10    71      73 68 68 63

Shoreham Wading River
  Katherine Lee         11    132     133 132 131 133 127 122 116 116
  Alexandra Hays        12    119+    109 122 121 122 119 119 111 114 108
  Maria Smith           12    105     104 105 108 97 97 88 82
  Francesca Lilly       10    100     96 99 103 101 103 100 84 89
  Amanda Dwyer          12    94      89 87 93 103 101 99 92 79 88
  Payton Capes-Davis    12    92      76 91 101 87 92 76 64 60
  Lexie Smith           10    89      85 85 82 95 94 89 97 67
  Caleigh Capek         11    77      73 74 80 76
  Danielle Ohrtman      10    68      58 72

East Aurora
  Molly McLaughlin      11    121     123 120 116 119 120 117 115 87
  Maisy Webster         12    120     93 121 125 123 128 122 101 116
  Tori Klimowicz        12    114     118 107 112 112 104 113 95 86 87
  Erin Cocca            12    89      72 72 90 86 90 81 62 90
  Heather Powers        12    80      79 74 79 84 71 86
  Emily Jason           10    72      61 70 74 74 77 66 78 67 79
  Lauren Kenworthy      12    71      54 77
  Eva Scarpa            11    69      66 69 63 69 46 75

John Jay CR
  Pippa Nutall          10    120     118 117 125 125 111 119 115 123 111 110 116
  Kathryn Nohilly       12    112     110 115 114 111 105 115 111 114 106 92 86
  Brooke Nohilly        12    101     92 101 103 102 92 78 97 101 33 73
  Cameron Crawford      10    100     87 101 103 101 93 97 79 54
  Danielle Femia        12    89      84 82 96 81 89 89 93 95 79 71 67
  Kendall Degenhard     10    74      78 64 49 65 67 74 79
  Athena Ohnemus        10    67      68 65
  Caroline Williams     10    66      61 67 66

Burnt Hills
  Eva Scott             12    129     118 130 131 127 133 130 129 115
  Lily Digman           10    100     90 102 91 99 101 110 87
  Skylar Sweet          12    100     63 101 103 98 114 107 104 83
  Kristin McAlonen      11    97      73 100 90 97 102 103 104 95
  Maddy Ayers           12    91      79 98 83 89 63
  Monica Jerry          11    83      50 79 81 90 94 95 95 84
  Emily Holt            12    76      73 74 76 78 64

 

 Class C - Girls ... Pre-Season 2016
 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Bronxville              140     (01-C )
    2    Newfane                 155     (06-C )
    3    Canton                  190     (10-C )
    4    Newark Valley           195     (04-C )
    5    Dobbs Ferry             205     (01-C )
    6    Alden                   250     (06-C )
    7    Broadalbin-Perth        275     (02-C )
    8    Clinton                 280     (03-C )
    9    Addison                 300     (05-C )
    10   Livonia                 300     (05-C )
    11   Cazenovia               300     (03-C )
    12   City Honors             305     (06-C )
    13   Chatham                 315     (02-C )
    14   Mattituck               320     (11-C )
    15   Akron                   330     (06-C )
    16   Fonda-Fultonville       330     (02-C )
    17   Saranac                 335     (07-C )
    18   Olmsted                 340     (06-C )
    19   Hannibal                345     (03-C )
    20   Fredonia                365     (06-C )
    21   Waterloo                370     (05-C )
    22   Jordan-Elbridge         370     (03-C )
		

Bronxville is a many-time Class C champion ... East Aurora dropped from Class B to Class C two years ago and beat Bronxville in the Class C race, but East Aurora moves back up to Class B this year ... and Bronxville becomes the Class C favorite in 2016 ... Bronxville did lose three runners to graduation from last year's State team, but top runner (Kaitlin Ryan) returns.

Newfane could be a serious challenger for the top spot ... Newfane finished 2nd to East Aurora at last year's Section 6 Championships and return their top four runners (two incoming freshmen and two sophomores).

Lots of uncertainty in projecting the next groups of teams.

 

Some Class C Returning Runners by Team  

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2015
                           ---------  --------------------------------
Bronxville
  Kaitlin Ryan          12    123     118 115 127 120 127 125 122
  Olivia Scotti         11    104     102 106 100 103 104 106 84 90
  Kirsten Ircha         10    102     80 103 107 109 86 93
  Gigi Chrappa          10    72      67 60 81 54
  Isabela Lamadrid      11    72      77 49 75 72 33 55
  Sydney Coddington     12    71      61 62 71 79 84 65
  Emma Mandanas         10    70      75 58 49

Newfane
  Nina Burkard          10    109     104 111 107 109 94 98
  Kimberly Goerss       10    108     97 108 108 116 105 101
  Vanessa Burkard       9     101     82 108 101 92 91 90
  Lydia Chunco          9     95      96 95 80 84 92
  Caitlin Clack         10    60      57 60 60 46
  Lauren Boudeman       9     60      50 59 64 50
  Ally Martin           12    54      31 62

Canton
  Grace Bessette        11    112     100 117 110 102 73
  Emma Bentley-Hicks    11    107     100 104 112 101 72
  Gabriella Scott       11    101     86 110 94 78 49
  Hannah Tupper         10    80      67 85 78 66 50
  Claire Bartlett       12    50      44 39 57 34 8

Newark Valley
  Sophie Stewart        10    97      93 95 102 96 77 97 84 60
  Kristina Knight       10    92      77 94 96 95 80 88 95 83 70
  Marissa Silba         10    91      85 93 86 95 80 83 97 76
  Courtney Maule        9     84      74 85 90 82 66 77 68
  Colleen Riegel        10    67      62 74 64 61 46 60 50
  Anna Raymond          12    61      62 62 60 56 46 49 44 21

 

 Class D - Girls ... Pre-Season 2016
 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Greenwich                70     (02-D )
    2    Maple Grove             105     (06-D )
    3    Beaver River            125     (03-D )
    4    Tully                   145     (03-D )
    5    Trumansburg             170     (04-D )
    6    Elmira Notre Dame       180     (04-D )
    7    Duanesburg              190     (02-D )
    8    Seton Catholic-Platts   195     (07-D )
    9    Harley-Allendale        195     (05-D )
    10   New York Mills          210     (03-D )
    11   Haldane                 245     (01-D )
    12   Maple Hill              250     (02-D )
    13   Shelter Island          255     (11-D )
    14   Sauquoit Valley         270     (03-D )
    15   South Lewis             290     (03-D )
		

Greenwich is the defending Class  D champion ... Tully won the Class D title in 2014 and finished 2nd to Greenwich last year ... Greenwich returns 6 of their 7 runners from States including their top three scorers (all 8th-graders in 2015), and that makes Greenwich a solid favorite in Class D.

Maple Grove finished 3rd at States last year and return 6 of 7 runners from States (their top runner did graduate however).

Tully returns 4 runners from States, but their #2 and #3 scorers graduated ... Tully will have trouble beating Beaver River at sectionals ... Beaver River is returning 6 of their top 7 runners from last year's sectionals where they finished 2nd to Tully (43-64).

As normal, lots of uncertainty in projecting the other Class D teams (it's a real guess at this point) ..... Talented new runners can have a major impact on team scoring, especially at the small school level.

 

Some Class D Returning Runners by Team  

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2015
                           ---------  --------------------------------
Greenwich
  Brynne Wright         9     114     107 110 120 111 112 120 112 101
  Emma Cronin           9     111     105 104 114 110 120 110 102 94
  Brooke Wright         9     102     83 103 102 107 109 103 103 101
  Annabel Gregg         10    90      85 93 88 92 88 82 42
  Lucia D'Acchille      10    72      61 75 65 81 78 69 23 29
  Chloe Littell         11    59      52 56 56 78 52 63 46 25

Maple Grove
  Grace Auer            11    108     104 102 111 112 106 109 71 99
  Carling Lockwood      8     100     75 99 108 109 102 101 77 82
  Riley Caskey          10    88      80 85 91 95 81 91 60 71
  Bryn Mozzi            10    77      71 73 78 80 69 83 55
  Kristin Kelemen       10    72      29 4 97 82 76 92 80 99

Beaver River
  Taylor Moore          10    98      95 103 102 98 100 86 73 63 61
  Shauna Rice           10    87      69 89 87 93 89 90 76 71 80
  Rylee Campeau         10    84      84 91 71 88 82 40 29 53 30
  Sierra Kempney        11    81      80 81 80 90 80 56 60 65 54
  Emily Lighthall       11    75      77 75 73 81 66 43 50 44
  Nobalie Kloster       10    49      48 56 42 37 53 43 27 -1 4
  Makayla Roggie        11    40      41 31 43 18 34

Tully
  Brooke Rauber         8     135     133 138 133 123 133 128 115 130
  Alison Carr           10    82      66 61 84 70 92 77 93 78 50 71
  Gabby Moncada         11    75      74 76 71 66 50 51 39 37 60
  Mackenzie Delles      10    74      79 72 58 70 59 39 55 61 27 51

Trumansburg
  Molly MacQueen        9     114     108 111 116 115 106 116
  Claire Melvin         12    84      76 73 86 85 95 85 84
  Ginny Clifford        9     84      75 78 85 88 86 85 91
  Aurora Wulff          10    58      48 51 65 53 61 54
  Berkley Sawester      12    44      42 42 27 49 45
  Elizabeth Dawson      10    39      18 40 42
  Melaina Bell          10    37      21 42 33
		

 

 CHSAA - PSAL - AIS Girls ... Pre-Season 2016
 

         Team                   Score    Federation
         ---------------------  -----    ----------
    1    Notre Dame Academy       75     (CHSAA)
    2    Conv Sacred Heart        80     (AIS  )
    3    Kellenberg              120     (CHSAA)
    4    Nardin Academy          140     (CHSAA)
    5    St. Anthony's           145     (CHSAA)
    6    Poly Prep               150     (AIS  )
    7    McKee-Staten            190     (PSAL )
    8    Sacred Heart-Buff       190     (CHSAA)
    9    Hackley                 190     (AIS  )
    10   Immaculata-Buff         195     (CHSAA)
    11   LREI Little Red         195     (AIS  )
    12   Brooklyn Tech           205     (PSAL )
		
Not much separates Notre Dame Academy and the Convent of the Sacred Heart in terms raw numbers ... Notre Dame won the CHSAA Championship the last two years and return their top five runners from the NY Federation Meet, so I give them the advantage.

As normal, lots of uncertainty for most of the teams in the CHSAA-PSAL-AIS grouping entering a new season.

 

Some CHSAA Returning Runners by Team 

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2015
                           ---------  --------------------------------		
Notre Dame Academy
  Sydney Rice           12    123     119 120 128 117 118 123 122 116 113
  Keiana Mitchell       11    114     105 106 118 114 119 119 108 108
  Jackie Thompson       11    97      89 97 85 104 107 98 100 94 91 86
  Lauren Pitarresi      12    80      45 88 69 74 83 83 86
  Ariella Garcia        12    72      59 72 66 77 80 71 76 80 62 64
  Casey Franzreb        10    62      64 53
  Taylor Giacopelli     12    55      57 52 51 61 34 39

Conv Sacred Heart
  Paris Calcagnini      12    120     124 113 99
  Julia Larson          11    111     113 108 107 102 75
  Fiona Calcagnini      10    95      96 91 96 65
  Therese Schachner     11    82      78 84 76 83
  Alienor Manteau       11    74      63 76 66 81 70
  Saida Zerouali-Barrera11    63      63
  Roxanne Harris        12    62      63 54 51 68 37
  Caitlin Ervine        12    41      45 37 21 23

Kellenberg
  Nora Bennett          11    100     92 103 83 101 99 106 70
  Julia Bryant          11    93      90 98 92 86 80 83 32
  Brianna Lausev        10    81      73 81 77 87 75 83 66
  Anita Mikowski        11    78      78 76 77
  Maya Richardson       10    71      71
  Grace Browne          11    63      60 40 70

Nardin Academy
  Danielle Orie         12    91      91  (believe she swims in the fall)
  Gabrielle Orie        12    91      91  (believe she swims in the fall)
  Jacqueline Dirr       12    82      75 84 80 84 83
  Grace Brach           12    80      75 83 75
  Lucy Popko            12    76      67 79
  Liz Charles           10    71      71
  Grace Van Vessum      10    63      60 64 61
  Brigid Flynn          12    42      46 31 37 30