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|NYSPHSAA State Meet 2009 - Predictions & Preview|
|Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 10, 2009 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ...|
ACTUAL Scores added on Nov 15, 2009 (Comments on Nov 15) ...
|Boys Class AA - North Rockland & FM in a "pick-em"|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 North Rockland (01) 69 Fayetteville Manlius 48 2 Fayetteville-Manlius (03) 70 North Rockland 63 3 Shenendehowa (02) 95 Port Washington 103 4 Warwick Valley (09) 101 Warwick Valley 122 5 Sachem East (11) 135 Rush-Henrietta 124 6 Rush-Henrietta (05) 140 Shenendohowa 141 7 Port Washington (08) 145 Ithaca 156 8 Ithaca (04) 170 Sachem East 184 9 Clarence (06) 195 Clarence 232
Post-Race Comments ... Fayetteville-Manlius won with an outstanding team effort. During the week, Andrew Roche was sick with flu (101 temperature), but raced very well (177 speed rating) ... Joe Hartnett had his best race ever for FM (176 speed rating ... prior best was 164 at Manhattan), and that was a real big factor in FM's team score ... Port Washington raced very well to finish 3rd ... Nick Hughes (North Rockland) out-dueled Quinn Rasemann (Ward Melville for the win) ... Section 3 runners Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville) and Steve Houghmaster (West Genesee) finished an excellent 3rd and 4th.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
This is an interesting race from a computer simulation point-of-view
(a simulation of 100,000 possible race outcomes) ... North Rockland
and Fayetteville-Manlius are basically splitting the number of
wins (with North Rockland slightly ahead) ... Two factors are
significant in determining the outcome ... one factor will be determined
by the teams themselves, but the other is out of their control:
Fayetteville-Manlius will not have Alex Hatz (hopefully Alex will be able to compete at the NXN Regional) ... Hatz was excluded from the prediction above ... Mark McGurrin was not 100% at sectionals (recovering from sickness) and is expected to be better at States ... Fayetteville-Manlius has not raced "all-out" very many times this season, and to borrow from horse-race handicapping, the sectional race may have been a good "tightener" for FM (this intangible handicapping factor might give an advantage to FM and could be considered if pari-mutuel wagering was allowed).
North Rockland has been racing very well ... North Rockland has been improving all season and is now position to win the Class AA title ... One key improvement is improved performance at the #5 position (which may determine this race).
Shenendehowa and Warwick Valley are fairly evenly matched for the 3rd and 4th spots.
Individual Race ... This could be a very interesting and close race ... Nick Hughes (North Rockland) has been consistently good in recent races and is the slight favorite for the win ... Quinn Raseman (Ward Melville) is undefeated this season and appears to be peaking at the right time ... Brendan Farrell (FM) has been consistently good ... Colin Savage (Liverpool) almost did not race at sectionals due to the flu (and probably shouldn't have), but did race to help Liverpool finish 2nd and be a likely Federation "at-large" selection (one of Liverpool's top five runners (Nick Hull) could not run at sectionals due to the flu) ... Dan Harris (Shenendehowa) is capable of a big race and winning as is Alex Saavedra (Sachem East) ... Section 9 runners Tim Luthin (Warwick) and Martin Hehir (Washingtonville) are in the mix as well ... I have a feeling that Marco Bertolotti (Port Washington) could be the surprise in this race - he is undefeated this season, has excellent speed (as evidenced by his mile track performances), and will be competing on a relatively flat course that might be beneficial.
|Boys Class A - Burnt Hills favored again|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Burnt Hills (02) 48 Burnt Hills 38 2 McQuaid (05) 59 McQuaid 57 3 Calhoun (08) 69 Calhoun 78 4 Brewster (01) 92 Brewster 88 5 Vestal (04) 120 Jamesville-DeWitt 132 6 Jamesville-Dewitt (03) 145 Vestal 144 7 Williamsville N (06) 175 Harborfields 172 8 Harborfields (11) 195 Williamsville N 208 9 Cornwall (09) 220 Cornwall 234
Post-Race Comments ... Burnt Hills ran very well to win handily as expected ... the race ran reasonably close to form.
Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills is the favorite in Class A, but McQuaid and Calhoun are not far behind ... Burnt Hills gets the advantage as their top runners are projected to finish one-two (Otis Ubriaco and Scott Maughan) and their #5 runner is higher rated than their challengers.
McQuaid has been good all season and appears to be peaking ... McQuaid had an excellent team performance at sectionals and that performance puts them very close to Burnt Hills ... If McQuaid duplicates that performance, this race could be up-for-grabs.
Calhoun is also very good, but
they do not appear to be quite as deep as the top two teams (a big
performance at the #5 position could make it interesting).
|Boys Class B - Honeoye Falls the favorite|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Honeoye Falls-Lima (05) 69 Honeoye Falls-Lima 42 2 Bayport-Blue Pt (11) 79 Bayport-BluePt 85 3 Manhasset (08) 111 Byram Hills 104 4 Byram Hills (01) 112 Manhasset 112 5 Marcellus (03) 118 Beekmantown 122 6 Windsor (04) 140 Marcellus 134 7 Broadalbin-Perth (02) 145 Broadalbin Perth 164 8 Beekmantown (07) 160 Windsor 166 9 East Aurora (06) 170 New Paltz 234 10 New Paltz (09) 220 East Aurora 235 11 Canton (10) 245 Canton 268
Post-Race Comments ... Alex Deir and Steve Mangan (Honeoye Falls-Lima) ran one-two as expected, and the HFL team raced even better than expected.
Pre-Race Analysis ... Honeoye Falls-Lima is the defending Class B champion and favored to win ... Honeoye Falls-Lima has an advantage with an excellent one-two combo (Alex Deir and Steve Mangan).
Bayport Blue Point raced very well at sectionals with excellent depth one through six ... If Bayport Blue Point can repeat that performance, they have a real chance to win.
Manhasset, Byram Hills and Marcellus are closely matched for the 3rd position.
Individual Race ... Alex Deir and Steve Mangan (Honeoye Falls-Lima) are the top-ranked Class B runners ... Dan Denis (Bayport-Blue-Pt) and Jesse Garn (Marcellus) are not far behind.
|Boys Class C - Holland Patent the favorite|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Holland Patent (03) 59 Holland Patent 40 2 Pawling (01) 85 Pawling 91 3 Fonda Fultonville (02) 113 Newark Valley 101 4 James O'Neill (09) 116 Greece Odyssey 107 5 Gowanda (06) 120 James I O'Neill 127 6 Newark Valley (04) 120 Gowanda 135 7 Greece Odyssey (05) 135 Oyster Bay 155 8 Babylon (11) 200 Babylon 189 9 Oyster Bay (08) 200 Fonda Fultonville 214 10 Potsdam (10) 235 Potsdam 250 11 Plattsburgh (07) 295 Plattsburgh 308
Post-Race Comments ... Holland Patent won easily as expected ... Brandon Freyer (Pawling) out-dueled Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) for the individual title in a real good race.
Pre-Race Analysis ... Holland Patent is the solid favorite to win the Class C race ... Holland Patent has good depth and a good one-two combo (Dylan and Cody Racha) ... Holland Patent lost to Newark Valley by one point last year.
Pawling is the second choice
... The next four to five teams are not separated by much (the exact
order of finish is fairly random amongst those teams).
|Boys Class D - Barker favored in a close race|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Barker (06) 70 Barker 66 2 Beaver River (03) 78 Beaver River 76 3 Seton Catholic (07) 79 Seton Catholic 85 4 Port Jefferson (11) 89 Geneseo 107 5 Geneseo (05) 114 Port Jefferson 123 6 Berne-Knox-Westerlo (02) 115 Berne Knox Westerlo 132 7 Spencer VanEtten (04) 148 Spencer Van Etten 135 8 Tupper Lake (10) 212 SS Seward 207 9 SS Seward (09) 224 Tupper Lake 221 10 Haldane (01) 250 Haldane 258
Post-Race Comments ... Overall, the race ran reasonably close to form ... Mike Champagne (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) won handily despite taking a fall about 200 meters from the finish.
Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the defending Class D champion (Barker finished second last year) ... This year, Seton Catholic and Port Jefferson are legitimate contenders.
Barker raced very well at
sectionals with a team spread of less than a minute and the top
three within eight seconds of each other ... a duplication at States
will be hard to beat ... Beaver River probably needs to
place their top two runners in front of the initial Barker
pack ... Seton Catholic has decent depth and the projected
team winner (starting a team score with a "one" is always an
advantage ... and running on a home-town course should help) ... Port Jefferson has a chance with a good team
performance ... The #5 position in this race is very important.
|Girls Class AA - FM looking strong with Saratoga second again|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Fayetteville-Manlius (03) 25 Fayetteville Manlius 15 2 Saratoga (02) 40 Saratoga Springs 59 3 Monroe-Woodbury (09) 90 Monroe Woodbury 98 4 Arlington (01) 125 Arlington 122 5 Northport (11) 125 Northport 126 6 Hilton (05) 189 Ithaca 186 7 Ithaca (04) 189 Syosset 192 8 Syosset (08) 215 Hilton 199 9 Clarence (06) 240 Clarence 256
Post-Race Comments ... Fayetteville-Manlius - the most impressive team performance in a single race that I have ever seen ... Fayetteville-Manlius wanted to make a statement and they did ... Overall, this race ran very close to form.
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the defending State and National Champions and the top-ranked team in the US once again ... FM currently has six of the top eight positions on the Girls NY State Class AA leaderboard, and that suggests their team score might be lower than the 25 points posted above ... Last year, FM had the potential to score 15, but scored 22 ... It is very difficult to have five exceptional team performances in the same race against a very talented group of teams (and individuals from other teams are likely to have some exceptional performances which will raise the FM score ... this comes across in computer simulations ... it's a matter of which simulation result I chose to use) ... FM has extraordinary depth ... This could be an interesting test for FM, and I'm interested to see the results.
Saratoga ran very well at sectionals to beat a very good Shenendehowa team ... For some reason, I think the SUNY Plattsburgh course will be good for Saratoga ... Saratoga is one of the three best teams in the US (whether they are better than the Saugus CA girls is to-be-determined ... and Shenendehowa (who can't race at States) is in that discussion as well) ... FM and Saratoga will probably race each other here, at NXN Regional and NXN Nationals ... This is an interesting test for Saratoga (and Saratoga passed their test against Shen very nicely indeed).
Monroe-Woodbury appears 3rd-best in this race ... Arlington and Northport are too-close-to-call in a "pick-em" for 4th.
Individual Race ... Courtney Chapman (FM) won States convincingly last year at Sunken Meadow ... This year the individual race looks very close with a group of FM girls vying for the win (Courtney Chapman, Jillian Fanning, Molly Malone, Hannah Luber, Katie Sischo and Mackenzie Carter) against Keelin Hollowood (Saratoga) and Lizzie Predmore (Shenenedehowa) ... and you might watch-out for Meghan Patrignelli (Monroe-Woodbury).
|Girls Class A - Queensbury a solid favorite|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Queensbury (02) 29 Queensbury 34 2 Pittsford Mendon (05) 78 Pittsford Mendon 64 3 Tappan Zee (01) 80 Tappan Zee 97 4 Cornwall (09) 85 Cornwall 99 5 Grand Island (06) 154 Wantagh 145 6 Wantagh (08) 155 Vestal 159 7 Vestal (04) 175 Miller Place 186 8 Miller Place (11) 195 Grand Island 195 9 Jamesville-Dewitt (03) 200 Jamesville-DeWitt 201
Post-Race Comments ... Another race that ran reasonably close to form ... Queensbury won impressively ... Aisling Cuffe (Cornwall) not only ran extremely fast, but she did it easily.
Pre-Race Analysis ... Queensbury is a very solid favorite in the Class A race ... Queensbury needed an excellent performance to beat Burnt Hills at the Section 2 championships (Burnt Hills would be a solid favorite if they were at States instead of Queensbury).
Tappan Zee, Cornwall and Pittsford Mendon
are close in the projected scores (and are effectively even-up) ... the performance of the #3, #4 and #5 runners will likely make
the difference (as it does in most races).
|Girls Class B - East Aurora & Honeoye Falls-Lima in a good race|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 East Aurora (06) 42 East Aurora 48 2 Honeoye Falls-Lima (05) 47 Honeoye Falls-Lima 60 3 North Shore (08) 70 North Shore 74 4 Pearl River (01) 100 Pearl River 85 5 Scotia-Glenville (02) 155 Scotia-Glenville 163 6 Owego (04) 170 Onteora 170 7 Marcellus (03) 185 Owego 178 8 Onteora (09) 200 Marcellus 190 9 Mount Sinai (11) 220 Mount Sinai 216 10 Peru (07) 295 Peru 321 11 Ogdensburg (10) 310 Ogdensburg 339
Post-Race Comments ... The team race unfolded pretty much as expected ... Meghan Young (Nanuet) out-dueled Christine Driscoll (Geneva) for the individual title.
Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora is the four-time defending Class B champion ... Coach Walt McLaughlin continues to have an excellent XC program at East Aurora (and 8th-grade daughter Marta McLaughlin has certainly helped the team this season with winning performances at sectionals and ECIC Championships) ... the East Aurora girls have risen to the occasion very nicely in recent races at State Meets, and I expect the same this year.
Honeoye Falls-Lima was the perennial Class B champion prior to East Aurora ... This year Honeoye Falls-Lima adds senior transfer Amanda Moreland to the team and that, combined with noticeable improvement team-wise, makes Honeoye Falls-Lima is serious contender to re-claim the Class B title ... This race could very well be decided by the performances of the #4 and #5 runners ... Honeoye Falls-Lima has a real shot at winning.
North Shore has been plagued by injuries and sickness all season which is very unfortunate for a team with a potential to challenge at a national level ... Dan Doherty's Pearl River is always in the mix.
Individual Race ... Sophomores Samantha Nadel (North Shore) and Lauren Mullins (Johnson City) are the top ranked Class B runners ... Samantha Nadel is the favorite, but Lauren Mullins is capable of a winning performance ... Freshman Meghan Young (Nanuet) has popped some really good performances this season and is definitely in the mix ... Consistently good Christine Driscoll (Geneva) will be close and Amanda Moreland (Honeoye Falls) is always good in these championship races.
|Girls Class C - Bronxville favored to repeat|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Bronxville (01) 55 Bronxville 41 2 Tully (03) 70 Tully 65 3 Newark Valley (04) 75 Newark Valley 96 4 Fredonia (06) 85 Fredonia 98 5 Rhinebeck (09) 130 Rhinebeck 123 6 Voorheesville (02) 170 Voorheesville 179 7 Saranac Lake (07) 190 Saranac Lake 215 8 Gouverneur (10) 207 Friends Academy 216 9 Friends Academy (08) 224 Gouverneur 228 10 Williamson (06) 246 Williamson 234 11 Center Moriches (11) 290 Center Moriches 265
Post-Race Comments ... Bronxville ran very well and handily as expected ... the Tully girls had their best race of the season and finished 2nd ... The team race ran very close to form ... Allison Lasnicki (Canastota) won the individual title very comfortably.
Pre-Race Analysis ... Bronxville is the defending Class C champion and is favored once again ... However, the score above includes Henrietta Miers, a top Bronxville runner who did not run at sectionals (I do not know why) ... If she does not run, the race might get close with four teams vying for the win.
Newark Valley beat Tully and Fredonia head-to-head at the McQuaid Invitational ... Newark Valley has shown the ability to run well in big races (they ran very well at States last year when they finished a very decent 3rd to Bronxville and Rhinebeck).
Tully finishes 2nd in the computer simulations due to good team depth ... Of the top nine Tully runners, three have had the H1N1 flu (one of the top five missed sectionals because of it, but is likely to race at States) ... Tully has the potential to post a very good score and could challenge for win, but that will require five excellent performances.
Fredonia has been improving very
nicely ... if that continues, they could be in the hunt for the top
|Girls Class D - Greenwich a solid favorite again|
Predict Actual School Sect Score School Score =============== ==== ===== ================== ===== 1 Greenwich (02) 18 Greenwich 24 2 Maple Grove (06) 80 Maple Grove 80 3 Geneseo (05) 110 Beaver River 93 4 Beaver River (03) 115 Geneseo 102 5 Norwood-Norfolk (10) 122 Norwood-Norfolk 116 6 Seton Catholic (07) 122 Thomas A. Edison 123 7 Thomas A. Edison (04) 140 Seton Plattsburgh 154 8 S.S. Seward (09) 175 Eldred 216 9 Stony Brook (11) 250 Stony Brook 235 10 Haldane (01) 278 Haldane 280 *** Eldred raced for Section 9 (not S.S. Seward)
Post-Race Comments ... Greenwich won very easily as expected ... Katie Weisenburger (Pulaski) won handily with Tori Campanian (South Lewis) second.
Pre-Race Analysis ... Very little to analyze here in terms of the winning team ... Greenwich is an overwhelming favorite to win ... Greenwich easily won the Class D title last year and is expected to do the same this year.
Maple Grove has race well throughout the season and is the pick to finish second ... 3rd through 6th-place looks fairly close with Geneseo getting the edge due to better depth and strength at the #4 and #5 positions.
Individual Race ... Roxanne Henningson (Greenwich) is the favorite with improving Katie Weisenburger (Pulaski) expected to mount a serious challenge for the win ... Several Greenwich runners (Brittney Lane, Cady Kuzmich and Betsy Edinger) are in the hunt for the top spots.