Tully Runners - Girls Class D 2000 Analysis

 

Girls & Boys Performance Database

Tully Invitational Info

Race Results
Running Links
Syracuse Forum

Articles
Archives

Contact Info
Home

 

This web-page considers the match-up between the Class D teams at the State Level.

Nov 12 Update ... Results of the State Meet

This was a great competition ... I want to congratulate all runners on an extraordinary performance. I did not realize the incredible performance level until I calculated the speed ratings ... the top six Beaver River girls had seasonal-best performances ... as did three runners from Bronxville (Caroline Mullen, Michelle Rorke and Kate Ogorzaly) ... that is truly remarkable considering the muddy conditions that slowed many good runners. See the Merged Team Results for States ... Class D was excellent!

The table below lists the individual finishing places and speed ratings. The table further below lists the predicted team scores and actual scores ... I expanded the predicted list to include teams from additional sections because runners from some schools wanted to know how I rated them.  I predicted a three point victory for Bronxville over Beaver River ... the actual margin was five points,  but both teams had lower scores than predicted ... the lower scores are understandable considering the exceptional individual performances and efforts by both teams to win!

Special congratulations to Beaver River's first-year Coach Travis Kuhl for an outstanding job and to the Beaver River girls being the best Class D team in Section 3 history! And congratulations to Bronxville Coach Jim Mitchell and the Bronxville team for rising to the challenge. Groton did not have their best race, but the Groton team is young ... their entire team returns next year ... I think Coach Scott Weeks will be back next year with another contending team.

                                                        Speed
       Runner                School           Time     Rating
       ===================   ==============   =======  ======
    1  Heather Iatauro-9     Tri-Valley       20:06.3     131
    2  Lauren Noble-10       Little Falls     20:12.9     129
    3  Catha Mullen-10       Bronxville       20:15.1     128
    4  Lauren Moser-9        Beaver River     20:15.5     128
    6  Caroline Mullen-10    Bronxville       20:20.3     126
    7  Julie Emery-8         Beaver River     20:22.2     126
    8  Michelle Rorke-11     Bronxville       20:31.4     123
   10  Adrienne Gagnier-9    Beaver River     20:37.2     121
   12  Danielle Buzzell-12   Beaver River     20:58.1     114
   14  Brandey Hurchla-9     Groton           21:06.6     111
   15  Heather Roberts-10    Tully            21:19.1     107
   16  Melissa Wisner-12     Bronxville       21:19.4     107
   17  Erin Yaichuk-11       Groton           21:25.2     105
   23  Lynne Vincent-11      Groton           21:37.2     101
   24  Becky MacKenzie-9     Groton           21:41.9     99
   26  Kate Ogorzaly-11      Bronxville       21:45.1     98
   29  Katie O'Konsky-9      Groton           21:50.3     96
   30  Kisa Ruiz-10          Beaver River     21:51.0     96
   34  Jolene Munger-11      Beaver River     22:04.4     92
   35  Annie Scogin-11       Groton           22:04.9     91
   37  Jamie Crawford-12     Tully            22:09.8     90
   39  Michelle Golden-10    Beaver River     22:11.1     89
   41  Karie Gallow-10       Groton           22:18.5     87
   49  Helen Millson-9       Bronxville       22:33.4     82
   50  Elise Duggan-12       Bronxville       22:45.9     78

 

 State Girls Class D Team Prediction (11-7-00)

 Click Here for Past Performance Listings

                   Predicted                           Actual
  Team                 Score      Team                  Score
  ==================   =====      ===================   =====
  Bronxville             50       Bronxville               34  (Sec 1)
  Beaver River           53       Beaver River             39  (Sec 3)
  Groton                 59       Groton                   65  (Sec 4)
  Harley Allendale Col  131       Harley Allendale Col    152  (Sec 5)
  Rhinebeck             167       Rhinebeck               160  (Sec 9)
  Galway                168       Seton Catholic-Platts   161  (Sec 7)
  Seton Catholic-Platts 173       Galway                  195  (Sec 2)
  Shelter Island        192       Norwood Norfolk         200  (Sec 10)
  Barker                241       Shelter Island          222  (Sec 11)
                                  Barker                  230  (Sec 6)
  **Section 10 not included
   (I didn't have results)
Analysis: This is a great race with many possibilities. My computer is tired ... I forced it run nearly half-a-million race simulations of all types. Bronxville was the winning team in more simulations (44%) than either Beaver River (38%) or Groton (18%) ... however, the outcome of this race is very dependent on the performance of each and every runner. If all teams perform to their maximum speed ratings, Bronxville has the edge and is likely to win ... but in closely contested championship races, that rarely happens.

Margin of Error: the "margin of error" for most of my computer simulations is approximately six points ... this means that any of the three teams can win, but Bronxville has a slight advantage.

This race is somewhat similar to the Section 3 Class Race between Westhill, New Hartford and South Jefferson.  South Jefferson was the least likely of the three teams to win (according to the computer simulations), but they accomplished what was required ... Nicole Lister won the race and their #4 and #5 runners had season-best performances.  Based upon speed ratings alone, Groton does not appear to be a possible winner of this race ... however, they won various computer simulations because (a) Brandey Hurchla placed 1st or 2nd amongst team runners and (b) they were able to place five and even six runners ahead of either Beaver River or Bronxville's 5th runner.  Bronxville and Beaver River's #5 runners have similar performances (speed ratings in the low 90s) ... this year, there are a fair number of runners from other sectional teams close to or slightly above this level that can have a huge impact on the final team scores!  Groton needs outstanding performances from all runners (more so than Beaver River and Bronxville). 

How the Race Will Be Run:  I find this very interesting because both Beaver River and Bronxville have groups of runners that go out very fast (they like to be on or near the lead). I wish the SUNY Utica course was a better spectator course because the potential competition may be excellent ... I think l'll be running from point-to-point to witness this first-hand.

Beaver River is very experienced on the SUNY Utica course ... they know exactly how to run the course ... this is their advantage that may allow them to become State Champions. But Bronxville has shown the ability to run on any type of course ... they run the difficult Westchester CC course extremely well and did win at Utica earlier in the year (the New Hartford Rain & Mud Invitational).

I think this race will be very close ... any single runner can be the difference ... Good Luck To All Teams.  (I wish the Tully team could compete because we really are the 4th best Class D team in the State).

Individual Race: The top contenders to win the race are Heather Iatauro (Tri-Valley), Catha Mullen (Bronxville), Brandey Hurchla (Groton), Lauren Noble (Little Falls) and Sarah Hildebrand (Harley Allendale Columbia) ... Sarah was last year's race winner, but any of these girls are capable of winning.

 

Nov 5th Update: Groton easily won the Section 4 Class D race run at Chenango Valley on Nov 2 ... see Scott Week's Groton Page for details. Groton came to the Section 3 Meet on Saturday to watch their State Meet competition (the Beaver River girls and Tully boys) and to get some experience on the Utica course.

Beaver River easily defeated Tully in the Section 3 Class D race (score of 18 - 50). On this web-site, I predicted a score of 26 - 39, but this actually included some of my own "hopes" that several Tully runners could have season-best races ... the unbiased computer simulation yielded a score of 21 - 48. The Beaver River team is just too talented for us this year.  The top Beaver River runners were Adrienne Gagnier (2nd, 19:52), Lauren Moser (3rd, 19:55), Danielle Buzzell (4th, 20:05), Julie Emery (5th, 20:20), Michelle Golden (10th, 21:09), Jolene Munger (13th, 21:34), and Kisa Ruiz (14th, 21:39) ... respective speed ratings of 118, 117, 113, 108, 92, 84, and 82.

Bronxville easily captured the top seven places in the Section 1 Class D race contested at Westchester CC on Nov 3. Top runners were Catha Mullen (20:08.5), Caroline Mullen (20:18.7), Melissa Wisner (20:19.2), Michelle Rorke (20:36.7), Kate Ogorzaly (21:48.4), Elise Duggan (22:40.3) and Helen Millson (22:55.1) ... they ran very fast; respective speed ratings were 124, 120, 120 (and I didn't think Melissa could run 117), 114, 91, 73, and 68.

I need a couple of days to collect and analyze results from other sections to access their impact on the State Class D match-up ... I will post the computer simulation results when I'm finished.

October 30th Update:  All four teams (Bronxville, Beaver River, Groton and Tully) competed on Saturday. Groton easily won the Interscholastic Athletic Conference (IAC) Championships run at Marathon (see the Groton Page). Tully finished 7th in the OHSL Championships at Baldwinsville (beaten by Skaneateles, FM, Westhill, West Genesee, Liverpool and CNS) ... Jessica Portmess showed great improvement with a 10th place overall finish (speed rating of 112).

Beaver River easily won the Varsity II division of the Adirondack Invitational with a score of 29 (2nd - Sauquoit Valley 84, 3rd - South Lewis 133). Top five individuals were Lauren Moser (3rd, 20:46), Adrienne Gagnier (4th, 20:47), Julie Emery (5th, 20:48), Danielle Buzzell (6th, 21:14), and Michelle Golden (11th, 21:49) ... respective speed ratings of 114, 113, 113, 104, and 93.  Michelle Golden is showing continual improvement.

Bronxville easily won the Westchester County Meet run at Bowdoin Park (Bronxville - 33, New Rochelle - 102, Horace Greeley - 150) ... the meet included 40 teams (large schools such as New Rochelle with 2400+ students and small schools such as Bronxville with 240 students).  Top five individuals were Catha Mullen (2nd, 19:35), Melissa Wisner (6th, 20:05), Caroline Mullen (8th, 20:22), Michelle Rorke (14th, 20:52), and Kate Ogorzaly (19th, 21:22) ... respective speed ratings of 127, 117, 111, 101 and 91. Let me congratulate Melissa Wisner for duplicating her previously best speed rating of 117 ... which proves she was right and I was wrong!

For the first time this season, I ran a complete computer simulation using the top seven runners from the four teams ... the simulation was a "predictive" simulation (Monte Carlo statistical method) using 50,000 individual race simulations ... I converted the compiled probabilities to team points as follows:

Bronxville - 44
Beaver River - 45
Groton - 50
Tully - 74

NOTE: the "margin of error" is approximately 6 points ... therefore, the top three teams fall within the margin of error.

Oct 25th Update:  Bronxville won the Section 1 League 3-B Championship contested on Van Cortlandt Park's 2.5 mile course (10-24-00). Bronxville's top seven runners finished in the top seven place giving them a perfect score. According to my database (and an e-mail from a Bronxville fan), the top five finishers all set PRs (personal records) for this course ... this is impressive considering they had a hard work-out the day before ... times: Catha Mullen (15:31), Michelle Rorke (15:33), Caroline Mullen (15:36), Melissa Wisner (15:56), and Kate Ogorzaly (17:19). The fifth runner (Kate Ogorzaly) is new to my database, so I would like to calculate an acceptable speed rating for her ... but it is problematic because I only have the other Bronxville girls as reference points ... my best guess is a speed rating between 80 and 86 with 85 most probable (the other runners had ratings of roughly 118,117,116 and 108).

Beaver River won the Frontier League Championship Meet contested at South Lewis (2.8 mile hilly course; 10-24-00) with a score of 25 ... South Jefferson was second with 45. Nicole Lister (South Jefferson) won the race in 18:05 ... Beaver River took the next four places with Lauren Moser (18:26), Adrienne Gagnier (18:40), Julie Emery (18:55) and Danielle Buzzell (19:03) ... Michelle Golden (20:09) and Kias Ruiz (20:11) finished 11th and 12th. Their respective speed ratings were 121, 117, 112, 109, 87 and 86.  The match-up between Beaver River and Bronxville is remarkably close ... and don't count Groton out!

October 23rd Update: Beaver River won the Small School Championship of the Fayetteville-Manlius Invitational held at FM High School even though their top two runners were disqualified ... nearing the finish-line in 2nd and 3rd place (behind winner and State Champion Laurel Burdick of FM), Adrienne Gagnier and Lauren Moser held hands briefly to cross the finish-line together ... race officials decided to disqualify them for this action. However, Julie Emery (4th, 20:15), Danielle Buzzell (6th, 20:33), Michelle Golden (21st, 21:47), Jolene Munger (29th, 22:08), and Kisa Ruiz (35th, 22:22) did well enough to win the Small School title.

At the Marathon Invitational, Groton (94) finished 3rd to Elmira Southside (75) and Ithaca (77) in the Girls Seeded Race. Groton would have won, but Lynne Vincent (Groton's #2 runner) was forced to drop out of the race due to a hip injury after being the co-leader of the race with team-mate Brandey Hurchla. Brandey was an impressive winner running the fastest girl's time of the day (20:01... 8 seconds faster than Tri-Valley's Heather Iatauro who won the unseeded race) (speed rating of 129). Other Groton finishers included Erin Yaichuk (12th, 21:08), Becky MacKenzie (13th, 21:13), Annie Scogin (24th, 21:48), and Kari Gallow (44th, 22:48).

Bronxville won the V1 Race in the Section 1 Coaches Invitational held at Westchester CC ... they easily beat runner-up North Rockland by 28 to 98. Individual results: Catha Mullen (1st, 20:07.1), Melissa Wisner (3rd, 20:43.6), Caroline Mullen (4th, 21:05.5),  Michelle Rorke (6th, 21:36.3), and Helen Millson (18th, 22:44.8). Melissa Wisner ran an outstanding race (speed rating of 117) ... this rating (her best ever according to my database) makes her competitive with the better Beaver River runners.

A three-team computer simulation (Beaver River, Bronxville and Groton) is virtually even-up with Bronxville having a one point advantage over Beaver River and three point advantage over Groton ... since the "margin of error" is 4 points, it is statistically tied.

October 16th Update: Groton traveled nearly 150 miles to challenge Beaver River in the Beaver River Invitational ... this time, Groton would have their complete team. Groton Coach Scott Weeks has results and a write-up posted on the Groton Page. Beaver River won again by a score of 39-52 ... however, Groton's #2 runner (Lynne Vincent) fell near the mile mark and was unable to finish the race. A typical "Lynne Vincent" finish would probably drop the Groton score by roughly 10 points ... therefore, Beaver River would only win by only 3 points. Amongst the two team's finishers, Groton's Brandey Hurchla was 15 seconds better than Beaver River's Adrienne Gagnier and Julie Emery.

Bronxville won the Girls Varsity A Race in the Manhattan Invitational contested at Van Cortlandt Park in the Bronx (basically a home course for Bronxville). Excellent performances by Catha Mullen (1st, 15:34.8), Michelle Rorke (5th, 15:53.2) and Caroline Mullen (6th, 15:55.6) led Bronxville to the team title.

Results of a four-way team simulation (Bronxville, Beaver River, Groton and Tully) haven't changed much since the Oct. 9th Update below (except Groton is a couple of points closer). However, the potential State match-up between Bronxville, Beaver River and Groton is really interesting at this point ... nearly every finishing position can be contested amongst these teams. I believe Catha Mullen (Bronxville) is slightly ahead in being the overall winner; but improving Brandey Hurchla (Groton) is not far behind. Bronxville's next runners (Caroline Mullen and Michelle Rorke) are virtually even-up with Beaver River's top three (Adrienne Gagnier, Julie Emery and Lauren Mosher). Groton's advantage is team depth ... I believe they can finish five (and probably six) runners before Bronxville or Beaver River's 5th runner finishes. This is the race I will focus on after sectionals with "all-kinds" of computer simulations (predictive, static, ranking, etc), and probably make a fool of myself.

Oct 9th Update: Beaver River, Groton and Tully competed at the Baldwinsville Invitational.  Beaver River beat Groton 39-57 in the C/D race ... Beaver River continues to improve with their top four runners within 28 seconds of each other; and their #5 runner in this race (Michelle Golden) showing a big improvement. Groton ran very well even though one of their top runners (Becky Mackenzie) could not run ... Brandey Hurchla had her best effort of the year as she beat all the Beaver River runners.  Tully competed in the "B" race, but was narrowly defeated by South Jefferson (57-59) ... the performance was not Tully's best.

Beaver River was impressive ... after the race, I figured Beaver River was finally ahead of Bronxville.  That is, until I saw Bronxville's results ... they competed in the St. Anthony Invitational at the Sunken Meadows course. Although they weren't in the same division as Pearl River, their top four runners would have placed in front of Pearl River's #2 runner (by time comparison). However, Bronxville and Beaver River are very close ... here's the results of a four-way team meet (computer simulation):

(1) Bronxville    43
(2) Beaver River  45
(3) Groton        52
(4) Tully         70

Oct 3rd Update: Tully easily won the C/D division at the Tully Invitational. Bronxville easily won a 2.5 mile race at Van Cortlandt Park. Beaver River and Groton competed against each other at the McQuaid Invitational ... Beaver River beat Groton 107-147 [the race was won by the powerful Honeoye Falls-Lima team (62) with Skaneateles 2nd (65)]. Several coaches at McQuaid told me that Beaver River was very impressive.

Beaver River's top three runners are all new to the varsity this year ... freshmen Adrienne Gagnier and Lauren Moser and 8th-grader Julie Emery (sister of Aaron Emery who won the Boys Federation Meet last year).

The relative placings shown below in the Sept 25th update have not changed ... but Bronxville and Beaver River are in a two-way statistical dead-heat.

Sept 25th Update: Tully, Beaver River and Bronxville competed at the big New Hartford Invitational at SUNY Utica (site of the State Championship Meet). However, they competed in separate divisions, and not directly against each other. Groton competed in the Auburn Invitational against Skaneateles, and were only beaten by a narrow score of 24 to 33. There are two major differences from the last update ... Beaver River has added 8th-grader Julie Emery and Groton has added new-comer Erin Yaichuk; both are major impact runners. I have statistically merged the New Hartford and Auburn races into a 4-way team meet ... here are the results:

(1) Bronxville    45
(2) Beaver River  47
(3) Groton        50
(4) Tully         73
The margin error actually places the top three teams
in a statistical dead-heat!

Sept 18th Update: the top Class D teams have all race at least once during the 2000 season and some early season evaluation is possible. Tully and Beaver River went head-to-head at the Central Square Invitational with Beaver River winning 63 to 84 ... Beaver River freshman Adrienne Gagnier and Lauren Moser were very impressive; their presence greatly strengthens the BR team as predicted in the pre-season analysis. Bronxville easily won a 2.5 mile invitational at Van Cortlandt Park ... newcomer Michelle Rorke crossed the finish-line with the Mullen sisters in an excellent time of 15:49 (Melissa Wisner was a close 4th (16:11) ... Bronxville may be stronger than last year. Groton did not compete on the weekend, but raced very impressively at the Susquehanna Invite on Sept 9th ... they are definitely stronger than last year. Mount Morris won the York Invitational on the 9th ... I have added them to my database. Here is a listing of the top five runners from the top four team with their current speed rating (Note: I am not real confident with the Bronxville ratings):

   Beaver River                 Tully
 ---------------------     ---------------------
 Adrienne Gagnier  117     Heather Roberts   120
 Lauren Moser      103     Jessica Portmess   95
 Danielle Buzzell  103     Jamie Crawford     84
 Kisa Ruiz          82     Michelle Lopez     70
 Michelle Golden    68     Jessica McAnaney   65

    Bronxville                  Groton
 ---------------------     ---------------------
 Catha Mullen      112     Brandey Hurchla   113
 Caroline Mullen   112     Lynne Vincent     112
 Michelle Rorke    112     Becky MacKenzie    80
 Melissa Wisner    105     Annie Scogin       93
 Helen Millson      70     Katie O'Konsky     80

 4-Way Team Score:  1 - Bronxville    41.5
                    2 - Groton        51.5
                    3 - Beaver River  54
                    4 - Tully         63

 

  CLICK HERE for Pre-Season Analysis 

 

 

Developed and maintained by webmaster@tullyrunners.com