Tully Runners - Girls Team Ranking Page for 2000


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Here are the pre-race projections for the 2000 Sectionals with the Actual Final Sectional Scores.

The predicted scores shown below were the results of various computer simulations. In general, I decided to use "predictive" simulations based upon standard Monte Carlo statistical methods ... this  means I ran thousands of individual race simulations for each Class and combined the results to get a final score. Since the race simulations output probabilities, I converted the probabilities to point scores based upon individual runner placement.

Please remember: the scores below only indicate the "most likely" outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of how good a team is. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with these projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference)!

Class A Girls ... FM
                   Predicted                          Actual
    School             Score       School              Score
    =================  =====       ==================  =====
1   FM                    58       1  FM                  73
2   Liverpool             75       2  Liverpool           91
3   West Genesee          83       3  CNS                 96
4   CNS                  120       4  West Genesee       103
5   Baldwinsville        126       5  Baldwinsville      120
6   Oswego               172       6  Central Square     179
7   Central Square       180       7  Proctor            187
8   Proctor              201       8  Oswego             194
9   Whitesboro           237       9  Whitesboro         195
10  Corcoran             258       10 Corcoran           234
11  Auburn               295       11 Auburn             252
12  Rome                 338       12 Rome               311
13  Nottingham           362       13 ESM                369
14  ESM                  391       14 Nottingham         inc
Pre-Race Team Analysis:  FM beat Liverpool and West Genesee at the OHSL League Meet ... I don't believe the Liverpool or West Genesee teams were at their best at the OHSLs ... I believe they will improve at sectionals and make the score closer. FM has a strong team led by Laurel Burdick who should easily win the race ... Brittany Crawford, Mackenzie Klump, Greer Mahoney and Shira Evans round-out this excellent team.  Liverpool and West Genesee have runners capable of challenging FM ... the projected score above leaves open the possibility of an upset ... if any scoring runner on FM falters, or if just one or two runners from Liverpool or West Genesee step-up with exceptional performances, an upset could occur. However, FM has a history of performing well when it counts ... therefore, I believe FM will win the right to face Saratoga at States.

Individuals:  Shannon Morris (West Genesee) and Hannah Failing (Whitesboro) are both running extremely well and should qualify for States. Contenders for the next three spots include Kelly Owens (Baldwinsville), Laura Ewald (CNS), Amanda Lalley (Central Square), Kerry Banazek (West Genesee), Crystal Cooper (Henninger), Danielle Scalione (Liverpool), and Janet Walsh (Baldwinsville).

The individuals to actually qualify were Hannah Failing (Whitesboro), Laura Ewald (CNS), Kelly Owens (Baldwinsville), Amanda Lalley (Central Square) and Shannon Morris (West Genesee).


Class B Girls ... 'too close to call'
                   Predicted                          Actual
    School             Score       School              Score
    =================  =====       ==================  =====
1   Westhill              62       1  South Jefferson     53
2   New Hartford          63       2  New Hartford        59
3   South Jefferson       71       3  Westhill            64
4   Phoenix               87       4  Phoenix            100
5   Chittenango          111       5  Chittenango        114
6   Homer                158       6  Homer              156
7   Mexico               181       7  Mexico             172
8   Oneida               203       8  Ilion              245
9   Jamesville Dewitt    269       9  Jamesville Dewitt  263
10  Carthage             293       10 Oneida             309
                                   11 Carthage           315
Pre-Race Team Analysis: This is the closest girl's race of the day. The "margin of error" for the scores above is approximately 6 to 7 points, so the one point advantage Westhill has over New Hartford is somewhat meaningless. In addition, South Jefferson has a reasonable chance of winning.  The computer simulations I perform output winning probabilities ... for 50,000 race simulations, Westhill won 39% of races, New Hartford 39%, and South Jefferson 22%.  But that's just statistics ... what it really means is this ... if any one runner can step-up with an exceptional performance (especially the #3, #4 or #5 runners), that could be sufficient for their team to win!  I would also like to commend Phoenix for their improvement!

Individuals: This is actually difficult to predict without knowing the winning team. The individual race winner will likely be one of three runners ... Nicole Lister (S Jeff), Kayleigh Wheeless (Westhill), or Tracey Brauksieck (Homer). Two of the top ranked runners (in Class B) have not raced recently [Lindsey Bohrer-Yardley (VVS) and Kaitlin Rees (Oneida)] ... I do not know their status for sectionals. Other runners who could qualify (if their teams don't) include Katie Luker (New Hartford), Kristine Scaglione (New Hartford), Kaitlin O'Sullivan (Westhill), Melissa Lister (S Jeff) and Ashley Hughes (Phoenix).

The individuals to actually qualify were Tracey Brauksieck (Homer), Kayleigh Wheeless (Westhill), Katie Luker (New Hartford), Kaitlin O'Sullivan (Westhill) and Ashley Hughes (Phoenix).


Class C Girls ... Skaneateles
                   Predicted                          Actual
    School             Score       School              Score
    =================  =====       ==================  =====
1   Skaneateles           20       1  Skaneateles         21
2   Sauquoit Valley      117       2  Cato Meridian      126
3   Canastota            134       3  Jordan-Elbridge    127
4   Cato Meridian        150       4  Canastota          137
5   Jordan-Elbridge      157       5  Sauquoit Valley    148
6   APW                  168       6  Clinton            149
7   South Lewis          176       7  South Lewis        149
8   Clinton              221       8  APW                224
9   Utica Notre Dame     221       9  Cazenovia          250
10  CBA                  265       10 Herkimer           254
11  Cazenovia            288       11 CBA                259
12  Herkimer             297       12 Adirondack         294
13  Ilion                312       13 Cooperstown        307
14  Adirondack           356       14 Utica Notre Dame   330
15  Cooperstown          405       15 Holland Patent     382
16  Waterville           417
Pre-RaceTeam Analysis: This is the easiest prediction of all sectional races. Skaneateles has been outstanding at all meets this year ... they looked exceptionally good at OHSLs. Perhaps each Skaneateles runner should be required to wear a 30 pound weight vest during the race ... they might still win.

Sauquoit Valley has shown great team improvement throughout the year ... this is true for both the girl's and boy's teams ... the coaches and runners at Sauquoit Valley should be commended.

Individuals:  I believe Jackie Kosakowski (Sauquoit) will win the race ... she's a great runner and appears to be in top form. I really enjoy watching seniors run well in their final year of high school ... therefore, I hope Natalie Romer (Canastota), Tracy Komrowski (Canastota) and Liz LeVan (South Lewis) will qualify for States ... I think they will.  Other contenders include Jenny Ryan (Clinton), Mary Denninger (Cato Meridian), and Nicole Moehringer (Sauquoit).

The individuals to actually qualify were Jackie Kosakowski (Sauquoit Valley), Natalie Romer (Canastota), Liz LeVan (South Lewis), Mary Denninger (Cato Meridian ) and Jenny Ryan (Clinton).


Class D Girls ... Beaver River 
                    Predicted                          Actual
    School              Score       School              Score
    ==================  =====       ==================  =====
1   Beaver River           26 **    1  Beaver River        18
2   Tully                  39 **    2  Tully               50
3   Richfield Springs     112       3  Richfield Springs  129
4   Pulaski               118       4  Pulaski            132
5   Lafayette             143       5  Lafayette          165
6   New York Mills        155       6  Weedsport          165
7   Weedsport             173       7  Waterville         166
8   Sandy Creek           195       8  Old Forge          192
  **(actual computer score          9  New York Mills     216
     was 21-49...I thought          10 Sandy Creek        222
     Tully could do better)
Pre-Race Team Analysis: This is effectively a duel-meet team competition between Beaver River and Tully ... which is good for Tully because it makes the score closer. Beaver River's new runners (Adrienne Gagnier, Lauren Moser and Julie Emery) have run exceptionally well ... better than I ever expected. Senior Danielle Buzzell has also run well, and Michelle Golden has continually improved. There's a good reason they are ranked #2 in the State, with a decent chance of winning States.

Tully has been hurt somewhat by sickness and injury.  Heather Roberts is still suffering from a lingering infection. Jessica McAnaney (Tully's #2 runner at States last year) was injured last June and is still hobbled by leg injuries (she tried to run the OHSLs, but was pulled out during the race by Coach Franklin when she began limping too much). On the positive side, Jessica Portmess is beginning to run very well nearing the end of her first cross country season. Tully is ranked #4 in the State and I believe that is appropriate ... but only one team from Section 3 can qualify for States.

Since Beaver River is expected to win, I have some minor suggestions for them : (1) celebrate the night before sectionals ... stay up all night and have a good time dancing ... be sure to eat lots of pepperoni, sausage and hot pepper pizza, (2) about 30 minutes before race time on Saturday, be sure to "carbo-load" with lots of Doritos, potato chips, hot dogs, french fries and ice cream , (3) run the first mile of the race "all-out" ... pretend the race is actually a one mile race ... after all, the last two miles at Utica are easy .  These suggestion will help, trust me .  And disregard the two Kenyan foreign-exchange students who are running for Tully on Saturday .

Individuals: Lauren Noble (Little Falls) is expected to win the race. Heather Roberts (Tully) and Jessica Portmess (Tully) will likely qualify for States. Contenders for the other individual spots include Julianna Allport (Pulaski), Erin Smith (Watertown IHC), Kari Burger (Richfield Springs), Mary Schachtler (Westmoreland), Jessica McAnaney (Tully), and Jamie Crawford (Tully).

The individuals to actually qualify were Lauren Noble (Little Falls), Heather Roberts (Tully), Julianna Allport (Pulaski), Jamie Crawford (Tully) and Becky Schachtler (Westmoreland).




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