Tully Runners - Girls Team Ranking Page for 2000
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Here are the pre-race projections for the 2000 Sectionals with the Actual Final Sectional Scores.
The predicted scores shown below were the results of various computer simulations. In general, I decided to use "predictive" simulations based upon standard Monte Carlo statistical methods ... this means I ran thousands of individual race simulations for each Class and combined the results to get a final score. Since the race simulations output probabilities, I converted the probabilities to point scores based upon individual runner placement.
Please remember: the scores below only indicate the "most likely" outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of how good a team is. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with these projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference)!
| Class A Girls ... FM |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================= ===== ================== =====
1 FM 58 1 FM 73
2 Liverpool 75 2 Liverpool 91
3 West Genesee 83 3 CNS 96
4 CNS 120 4 West Genesee 103
5 Baldwinsville 126 5 Baldwinsville 120
6 Oswego 172 6 Central Square 179
7 Central Square 180 7 Proctor 187
8 Proctor 201 8 Oswego 194
9 Whitesboro 237 9 Whitesboro 195
10 Corcoran 258 10 Corcoran 234
11 Auburn 295 11 Auburn 252
12 Rome 338 12 Rome 311
13 Nottingham 362 13 ESM 369
14 ESM 391 14 Nottingham inc
|
| Pre-Race Team Analysis: FM
beat Liverpool and West Genesee at the OHSL League Meet ... I don't
believe the Liverpool or West Genesee teams were at their best at
the OHSLs ... I believe they will improve at sectionals and make the
score closer. FM has a strong team led by Laurel Burdick who should
easily win the race ... Brittany Crawford, Mackenzie Klump, Greer
Mahoney and Shira Evans round-out this excellent team.
Liverpool and West Genesee have runners capable of challenging FM
... the projected score above leaves open the possibility of an
upset ... if any scoring runner on FM falters, or if just one or two
runners from Liverpool or West Genesee step-up with exceptional
performances, an upset could occur. However, FM has a history of
performing well when it counts ... therefore, I believe FM will win
the right to face Saratoga at States.
Individuals: Shannon Morris (West Genesee) and Hannah Failing (Whitesboro) are both running extremely well and should qualify for States. Contenders for the next three spots include Kelly Owens (Baldwinsville), Laura Ewald (CNS), Amanda Lalley (Central Square), Kerry Banazek (West Genesee), Crystal Cooper (Henninger), Danielle Scalione (Liverpool), and Janet Walsh (Baldwinsville). The individuals to actually qualify were Hannah Failing (Whitesboro), Laura Ewald (CNS), Kelly Owens (Baldwinsville), Amanda Lalley (Central Square) and Shannon Morris (West Genesee). |
| Class B Girls ... 'too close to call' |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================= ===== ================== =====
1 Westhill 62 1 South Jefferson 53
2 New Hartford 63 2 New Hartford 59
3 South Jefferson 71 3 Westhill 64
4 Phoenix 87 4 Phoenix 100
5 Chittenango 111 5 Chittenango 114
6 Homer 158 6 Homer 156
7 Mexico 181 7 Mexico 172
8 Oneida 203 8 Ilion 245
9 Jamesville Dewitt 269 9 Jamesville Dewitt 263
10 Carthage 293 10 Oneida 309
11 Carthage 315
|
| Pre-Race Team Analysis: This
is the closest girl's race of the day. The "margin of
error" for the scores above is approximately 6 to 7 points, so
the one point advantage Westhill has over New Hartford is somewhat
meaningless. In addition, South Jefferson has a reasonable chance of
winning. The computer simulations I perform output winning
probabilities ... for 50,000 race simulations, Westhill won 39% of
races, New Hartford 39%, and South Jefferson 22%. But that's
just statistics ... what it really means is this ... if any one
runner can step-up with an exceptional performance (especially the
#3, #4 or #5 runners), that could be sufficient for their team to
win! I would also like to commend Phoenix for their
improvement!
Individuals: This is actually difficult to predict without knowing the winning team. The individual race winner will likely be one of three runners ... Nicole Lister (S Jeff), Kayleigh Wheeless (Westhill), or Tracey Brauksieck (Homer). Two of the top ranked runners (in Class B) have not raced recently [Lindsey Bohrer-Yardley (VVS) and Kaitlin Rees (Oneida)] ... I do not know their status for sectionals. Other runners who could qualify (if their teams don't) include Katie Luker (New Hartford), Kristine Scaglione (New Hartford), Kaitlin O'Sullivan (Westhill), Melissa Lister (S Jeff) and Ashley Hughes (Phoenix). The individuals to actually qualify were Tracey Brauksieck (Homer), Kayleigh Wheeless (Westhill), Katie Luker (New Hartford), Kaitlin O'Sullivan (Westhill) and Ashley Hughes (Phoenix). |
| Class C Girls ... Skaneateles |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================= ===== ================== =====
1 Skaneateles 20 1 Skaneateles 21
2 Sauquoit Valley 117 2 Cato Meridian 126
3 Canastota 134 3 Jordan-Elbridge 127
4 Cato Meridian 150 4 Canastota 137
5 Jordan-Elbridge 157 5 Sauquoit Valley 148
6 APW 168 6 Clinton 149
7 South Lewis 176 7 South Lewis 149
8 Clinton 221 8 APW 224
9 Utica Notre Dame 221 9 Cazenovia 250
10 CBA 265 10 Herkimer 254
11 Cazenovia 288 11 CBA 259
12 Herkimer 297 12 Adirondack 294
13 Ilion 312 13 Cooperstown 307
14 Adirondack 356 14 Utica Notre Dame 330
15 Cooperstown 405 15 Holland Patent 382
16 Waterville 417
|
| Pre-RaceTeam Analysis: This
is the easiest prediction of all sectional races. Skaneateles has
been outstanding at all meets this year ... they looked
exceptionally good at OHSLs. Perhaps each Skaneateles runner should
be required to wear a 30 pound weight vest during the race ... they
might still win.
Sauquoit Valley has shown great team improvement throughout the year ... this is true for both the girl's and boy's teams ... the coaches and runners at Sauquoit Valley should be commended. Individuals: I believe Jackie Kosakowski (Sauquoit) will win the race ... she's a great runner and appears to be in top form. I really enjoy watching seniors run well in their final year of high school ... therefore, I hope Natalie Romer (Canastota), Tracy Komrowski (Canastota) and Liz LeVan (South Lewis) will qualify for States ... I think they will. Other contenders include Jenny Ryan (Clinton), Mary Denninger (Cato Meridian), and Nicole Moehringer (Sauquoit). The individuals to actually qualify were Jackie Kosakowski (Sauquoit Valley), Natalie Romer (Canastota), Liz LeVan (South Lewis), Mary Denninger (Cato Meridian ) and Jenny Ryan (Clinton). |
| Class D Girls ... Beaver River |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Beaver River 26 ** 1 Beaver River 18
2 Tully 39 ** 2 Tully 50
3 Richfield Springs 112 3 Richfield Springs 129
4 Pulaski 118 4 Pulaski 132
5 Lafayette 143 5 Lafayette 165
6 New York Mills 155 6 Weedsport 165
7 Weedsport 173 7 Waterville 166
8 Sandy Creek 195 8 Old Forge 192
**(actual computer score 9 New York Mills 216
was 21-49...I thought 10 Sandy Creek 222
Tully could do better)
|
| Pre-Race Team Analysis: This
is effectively a duel-meet team competition between Beaver River and
Tully ... which is good for Tully because it makes the score closer.
Beaver River's new runners (Adrienne Gagnier, Lauren Moser and Julie
Emery) have run exceptionally well ... better than I ever expected.
Senior Danielle Buzzell has also run well, and Michelle Golden has
continually improved. There's a good reason they are ranked #2 in
the State, with a decent chance of winning States.
Tully has been hurt somewhat by sickness and injury. Heather Roberts is still suffering from a lingering infection. Jessica McAnaney (Tully's #2 runner at States last year) was injured last June and is still hobbled by leg injuries (she tried to run the OHSLs, but was pulled out during the race by Coach Franklin when she began limping too much). On the positive side, Jessica Portmess is beginning to run very well nearing the end of her first cross country season. Tully is ranked #4 in the State and I believe that is appropriate ... but only one team from Section 3 can qualify for States. Since Beaver River is expected to
win, I have some minor suggestions for them Individuals: Lauren Noble (Little Falls) is expected to win the race. Heather Roberts (Tully) and Jessica Portmess (Tully) will likely qualify for States. Contenders for the other individual spots include Julianna Allport (Pulaski), Erin Smith (Watertown IHC), Kari Burger (Richfield Springs), Mary Schachtler (Westmoreland), Jessica McAnaney (Tully), and Jamie Crawford (Tully). The individuals to actually qualify were Lauren Noble (Little Falls), Heather Roberts (Tully), Julianna Allport (Pulaski), Jamie Crawford (Tully) and Becky Schachtler (Westmoreland). |
:
(1) celebrate the night before sectionals ... stay up all night and
have a good time dancing ... be sure to eat lots of pepperoni,
sausage and hot pepper pizza, (2) about 30 minutes before race time
on Saturday, be sure to "carbo-load" with lots of Doritos,
potato chips, hot dogs, french fries and ice cream 
, (3) run the first mile of the race "all-out" ... pretend
the race is actually a one mile race ... after all, the last two
miles at Utica are easy 
.
These suggestion will help, trust me 
.
And disregard the two Kenyan foreign-exchange students who are
running for Tully on Saturday 
.