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November 2, 2003
... Here are the
Boys pre-race projections
for
the 2003 Section 3 Championships & Actual Post-Race Team
Scores
Please remember:
the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based
upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they
are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven
runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem
with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some
teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on
October 28, 2003 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after
the meet ... Updated Nov 2, 2003 with the actual
scores.
... [Girls
Section 3 Team Predictions]
| Boys Class A
... Fayetteville-Manlius leads the pack |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 FM 50 FM 38
2 Liverpool 85 Liverpool 79
3 Central Square 100 Central Square 90
4 CNS 101 CNS 94
5 Auburn 172 Auburn 165
6 Oswego 176 Oswego 190
7 Baldwinsville 227 Corcoran 193
8 Corcoran 227 West Genesee 195
9 West Genesee 246 Henninger 266
10 ESM 259 Rome 293
11 Rome 285 Baldwinsville 293
12 Henninger 311 Whitesboro 334
13 Proctor 334 Nottingham 376
14 Nottingham 366 ESM 376
15 Whitesboro 392 Proctor 399
16 Watertown 454 Watertown 468
17 Fowler 515 Fowler 478
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Post-Race
...
Fayetteville-Manlius ran very well ... the top six teams ran very
close to form.
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Fayetteville-Manlius was very strong at the OHSL Championship Meet
... their top five runners finished in positions 6th through 23rd, and
that's impressive in a race with 37 teams ... in addition, the time
displacement between their 1st and 5th runner was only 45.5 seconds
... Liverpool, Central Square and CNS are fairly
evenly matched ... but to challenge FM, some runners will need
to step up ... Individually, Bryan Buchanan (CNS) is a solid
favorite to win. |
| Boys
Class B ... Westhill boys to join the girls at States |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Westhill 48 Westhill 41
2 Homer 77 VVS 63
3 Chittenango 78 Homer 64
4 VVS 79 Chittenango 95
5 Jamesville Dewitt 142 Jamesville-Dewitt 142
6 Fulton 171 New Hartford 152
7 New Hartford 184 Fulton 193
8 Phoenix 217 Phoenix 224
9 Camden 246 Camden 242
10 Herkimer 272 Cortland 273
11 Cortland 282 Herkimer 281
12 Indian River 328 Indian River 312
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Post-Race
... race went pretty much form ... VVS ran very well
to edge Homer for second place ... good team effort by Westhill
Pre-Race Analysis ...
Westhill finished comfortably ahead of Homer and
Chittenango at the OHSL Championship Meet ... this was in contrast
to a close finish at the Liberty (B1/B2) meet where Westhill
beat Chittenango by only 8 points and Homer by 13 points
... so there is a possibility of a close finish ... race simulations
also suggest a possible upset, but Westhill should win with
decent performances by their top five runners ... like their girl's
team, Vernon-Verona-Sherrill has had a very good season with
good improvement - don't be surprised if they finish second ...
Individually, Ozzie Myers (Chittenango) is the favorite. |
| Boys
Class C ... Sauquoit Valley vs. South Lewis ... very close! |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Sauquoit Valley 85 South Lewis 71
2 South Lewis 94 Sauquoit Valley 94
3 Canastota 123 Canastota 120
4 Marcellus 165 Marcellus 139
5 Skaneateles 172 Holland Patent 143
6 Holland Patent 175 Skaneateles 204
7 Cato Meridian 182 CBA 214
8 CBA 202 Mt. Markham 226
9 Jordan-Elbridge 219 Jordan-Elbridge 239
10 South Jefferson 252 Cato-Meridian 248
11 Mount Markham 262 Cazenovia 255
12 Cazenovia 286 South Jefferson 283
13 Bishop Ludden 424 Clinton 361
14 Clinton 425 Solvay 364
15 APW 431 Ilion 391
16 Ilion 439 Bishop Ludden 407
17 Solvay 444 Adirondack 428
18 Port Byron 470
19 Hannibal 480
20 Adirondack 521
|
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Post-Race
... great performance by South Lewis ... their top
four finishers placed in front of Sauquoit's second finisher which
obviously determined the outcome.
Pre-Race Analysis ... The
Adirondack Invitational was a pre-sectional match-up between
Sauquoit Valley and South Lewis where South Lewis
won by three points ... in the merged Adirondack results (divisions
one plus two), Sauquoit beat South Lewis ... in any
case, this is very close match-up ... Sauquoit Valley may have
a slight advantage in this large field of 20 teams, and Sauquoit
Valley usually rises to the occasion ... But South Lewis
can definitely win with good performances by all five runners ...
depth-wise, Sauquoit Valley has an advantage ... Individually,
Josh Arthur (South Lewis) and John Nicotera (Sauquoit)
are the favorites. |
| Boys
Class D ... Tully looks to win State title |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Tully 44 Tully 37
2 Pulaski 88 Pulaski 94
3 Beaver River 122 Beaver River 103
4 Old Forge 124 LaFayette 136
5 LaFayette 136 Weedsport 188
6 Weedsport 257 Oriskany 196
7 Faith Heritage 263 Faith Heritage 197
8 Cooperstown 264 Cooperstown 200
9 Oriskany 279 Utica Notre Dame 222
10 Utica Notre Dame 287 Fabius-Pompey 240
11 Living Word 305 Little Falls 269
12 Little Falls 337 New York Mills 301
13 Onondaga 359 Living Word Academy 302
14 Fabius-Pompey 361 Onondaga 337
15 Richfield Springs 400 Remsen 428
16 Port Byron 428
17 Sandy Creek 442
18 New York Mills 449
19 Remsen 576
20 Westmoreland 608
21 Bishop Grimes 635
22 Poland 648
|
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Post-Race
... Tully won as expected ... senior Bennett
Hillenbrand (Tully) developed a severe stomach cramp and almost
couldn't finish the race, but the other runners closed up the margin
and ran well ... NOTE ... as can be seen above, a number of
teams did not compete in the meet, such as Old Forge (there
were a few incompletes).
Pre-Race Analysis ... Led by
Lopez Lomong and Dominic Luka (who should finish 1st and
2nd), Tully is a solid favorite to win the Class D race ...
senior Bennett Hillenbrand has had a good season for Tully ...
but freshmen runners Tom Meixell, Mike Heyman and
Scott Vandermolen have shown good speed to support the team effort
along with junior Matt Kinne ... Pulaski is the
defending champion (and they have a good team), but the Lomong-Luka
tandem is tough competition. |
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