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Here are the pre-race projections for the 2000 Sectionals with the Actual Final Sectional Scores.

The predicted scores shown below are the results of various computer simulations. In general, I decided to use "predictive" simulations based upon standard Monte Carlo statistical methods ... this  means I ran thousands of individual race simulations for each Class and combined the results to get a final score. Since the race simulations output probabilities, I converted the probabilities to point scores based upon individual runner placement.

Please remember: the scores below only indicate the "most likely" outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of how good a team is. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference)!

 Class A Boys ... 'Too Close To Call'
                    Predicted                          Actual
    School              Score       School              Score
    ==================  =====       =================== =====
1   FM                     79       1  Liverpool           70
2   Liverpool              79       2  FM                  73
3   CNS                   139       3  Corcoran           118
4   Corcoran              154       4  CNS                129
5   West Genesee          155       5  West Genesee       141
6   Utica Proctor         181       6  Auburn             237
7   Nottingham            254       7  Watertown          255
8   Baldwinsville         273       8  Nottingham         256
9   Oswego                283       9  Baldwinsville      257
10  Watertown             289       10 Utica Proctor      271
11  Rome                  328       11 Rome               283
12  Auburn                339       12 Whitesboro         304
13  Whitesboro            343       13 Central Square     324
14  Henninger             347       14 Oswego             328
15  Central Square        393       15 Henninger          341
16  Fulton                395       16 Fulton             390
17  Fowler                596       17 ESM                514
18  ESM                   597
Pre-Race Team Analysis:  I ran several different types of simulations and got differing results; however, the results were always close between FM and Liverpool ... the scores above reflect results from two "predictive" simulations. Class A has many good, closely rated runners ... this makes the prediction more difficult, but it will make the actual race much more interesting to watch. The placement of runners (not from either FM or Liverpool) will be a key to determining the winner ... it will be important for FM and Liverpool runners to beat every possible runner to improve their placing.

CNS is projected to finish third because (in part) Dave Vinehout has shown continual improvement, and "predictive" simulations reward this.

Individuals:  There are a number of runners (not on the winning team) that have good chances of qualifying for States. Aaron Verminski (Rome) certainly has the best chance. I personally hope Robert Howell (Nottingham) can qualify, and I believe he will. The other spots are up for grabs amongst some evenly matched runners.

The individuals to actually qualify were Aaron Verminski (Rome), Ryan Hohm (Corcoran), Pat Gaffney (West Genesee), Dave Masse (FM) and Ben Murphy (Corcoran).

 

Class B Boys ... Chittenango
                    Predicted                          Actual
    School              Score       School              Score
    ==================  =====       ==================  =====
1   Chittenango            28       1  Chittenango         26
2   Westhill              113       2  Adirondack          95
3   Homer                 117       3  Homer              125
4   APW                   132       4  New Hartford       131
5   Adirondack            151       5  Westhill           141
6   Cortland              165       6  Jamesville Dewitt  162
7   Jamesville Dewitt     171       7  Cortland           193
8   New Hartford          174       8  Phoenix            195
9   Phoenix               228       9  Mexico             237
10  Mexico                266       10 Ilion              278
11  Indian River          286       11 Indian River       287
12  Carthage              324       12 Carthage           300
13  Oneida                406       13 Camden             311
                                    14 Oneida             367
                                    15 APW                inc
Pre-Race Team Analysis: Assuming all runners are healthy, Chittenango is the obvious favorite to win Class B.

Individuals: Brad Ariola (APW), Jason Croniser (Adirondack) and Jason Kaminski (Cortland) are three likely possibilities to qualify for States. The next two spots have at least four possible contenders ...Brian Byrnes (New Hartford ), Thom Powers (VVS), Jeremy Youngs (Adirondack) and David Slater (Westhill).  

The individuals to actually qualify were Jason Croniser (Adirondack), Brian Byrnes (New Hartford), Jeremy Youngs (Adirondack), Brad Ariola (APW) and Jason Kaminski (Cortland).

 

Class C Boys ... another close one!
                    Predicted                          Actual
    School              Score       School              Score
    ==================  =====       ==================  =====
1   Sauquoit Valley        73       1  Sauquoit Valley     77
2   Skaneateles            79       2  South Lewis         85
3   South Lewis            91       3  Holland Patent      97
4   Holland Patent        101       4  Skaneateles        108
5   Cooperstown           142       5  Cooperstown        122
6   Mount Markham         174       6  Mount Markham      144
7   Canastota             200       7  Canastota          192
8   Herkimer              224       8  Herkimer           230
9   South Jefferson       298       9  South Jefferson    232
10  Cato Meridian         308       10 Cato Meridian      277
11  Jordan-Elbridge       329       11 Jordan-Elbridge    322
12  Notre Dame            356       12 Cazenovia          330
13  Cazenovia             361       13 Notre Dame         341
14  CBA                   384       14 Clinton            350
15  Clinton               394       15 CBA                368
16  Marcellus             397       16 Hannibal           449
17  Hannibal              433       17 Bishop Ludden      inc
18  Ilion                 483       18 Marcellus          dnr
19  Bishop Ludden         514          Ilion         (class B)
Pre-Race Team Analysis: The first thing to note is the "margin of error" on these predictions ... for the top teams in this race, it is approximately 8 points ... therefore, Skaneateles and Sauquoit Valley are statistically even. Several different types of simulations consistently have Sauquoit winning. However, Skaneateles looked very good at the OHSL League Meet ... they are capable of winning! Sauquoit Valley was impressive at the Adirondack Invitational which demonstrates their favoritism. South Lewis and Holland Patent are not that far behind and should provide some good competition ... the placement of their runners may determine the Sauquoit / Skaneateles winner. This should be an excellent race, but Sauquoit Valley is the favorite until proven otherwise.

Individuals: Mike Allen (Mount Markham) is the choice to win the race and qualify for States. The next four spots have a number of legitimate contenders ... it depends in part as to the team winner.

The individuals to actually qualify were Mike Allen (Mount Markham), Greg Bailey (South Lewis), Pat Noonan (Holland Patent), Steven Carlson (Cooperstown) and Weston Cross (Skaneateles).

 

Class D Boys ... Tully, but closer than you think
                    Predicted                          Actual
    School              Score       School              Score
    ==================  =====       =================== =====
1   Tully                 48     1  Tully                  42
2   Beaver River          62     2  Beaver River           61
3   Onondaga              97     3  Onondaga               90
4   Pulaski              160     4  Port Byron            161
5   Port Byron           189     5  Weedsport             162
6   Weedsport            222     6  Pulaski               166
7   Lafayette            230     7  Little Falls          171
8   Little Falls         239     8  Sandy Creek           220
9   Faith Heritage       299     9  Lafayette             227
10  Sandy Creek          306     10 Richfield Springs     234
11  Old Forge            308     11 Old Forge             296
12  Frankfort-Mohawk     311     12 Westmoreland          354
13  Hamilton             312     13 New York Mills        356
14  Richfield Springs    342     14 Alexandria            412
15  New York Mills       399
16  MPH                  400
17  Alexandria Bay       487
Pre-Race Team Analysis: The Tully boys have been a pleasant surprise all season long. Their advantage is the ability to pack 5 or 6 runners at the finish within a short time period. Sophomore Sean Rienhardt has run extremely well (with the exception of a few races on a sprained ankle) and senior Ben McKnight has been consisting good. Lief Brunet, Tom Caracci, Toby Dornton and Jesse Burke represent the team's excellent depth.

But Beaver River is talented. Senior Tim Scarpinato is expected to win the race. In recent weeks, runners Kevin Bauter and Shawn Kloster have re-appeared and are running very well. I believe the race will be closer than originally thought because Kevin Bauter is improving rapidly as is Shawn Kloster. Zane Buckingham has been consistently good. But I believe Tully's depth will be enough to win. At this time, I believe the winner of this race has a good chance of winning the State Meet. Also, Onondaga has done very well this season and should be commended.

Individuals: Assuming Tully wins the team title, the top individual qualifier will be Tim Scarpinato.  The next four spots have more than four contenders that include Kane Seamon (Richfield Springs), Justin Block (Onondaga), Bubba Laney (Faith Heritage), Leif Schmidt (Oriskany), Dustin Goodfriend (Sandy Creek), Josh Daily (Watertown IHC), Andy Miller (Frankfort-Mohawk), Josh Brown (Lafayette) and Kevin Bauter.

The individuals to actually qualify were Tim Scarpinato (Beaver River), Kane Seamon (Richfield Springs), Justin Block (Onondaga), Josh Daily (Watertown IHC) and Dustin Goodfriend (Sandy Creek).

 

 

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