Tully Runners - Boys Class D 2000 State Prediction

 

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State Boys Class D Team Prediction (11-8-2000) & Actual Result

 Click Here for Past Performance Listings

                  Predicted                        Actual
   Team              Score        Team              Score
   ================  =====        ===============   ======
   Tully               71         Tully               69  (Sec 3)
   East Rochester      79         Groton              85  (Sec 4)
   Groton              83         East Rochester      95  (Sec 5)
   Tri-Valley          85         Frewsburg          114  (Sec 6)
   Corinth            119         Tri-Valley         122  (Sec 9)
   Frewsburg          132         Corinth            145  (Sec 2)
   Port Jefferson     167         Keio Academy       168  (Sec 1)
   Ticonderoga        180         Port Jefferson     179  (Sec 11)
   Keio Academy       189         Ticonderoga        183  (Sec 7)
                                  Norwood Norfolk    208  (Sec 10)
   **Section 10 not included
    (I didn't have results)
Analysis:  Based upon available results, Tully is the favorite to win the State Class D title. However, the computer simulations are somewhat limited because I have only one set of complete race results for East Rochester (their sectionals) ... this really limits the effectiveness of the computer simulations I like to run at this time of the season ... but East Rochester's sectional performance makes them a real contender.

Tully's advantage is team depth ... the top five runners usually finish within a minute of each other, and the 6th and 7th runners are also good.

Margin of Error: the "margin of error" for these computer simulations is probably about seven to eight points (due to the limited results for East Rochester) ... this makes Tully, East Rochester, Groton and Tri-Valley legitimate contenders to win. However, I believe Tully's team depth will permit Tully to win their first-ever State title in any team sport!

Good Luck to All Teams!

 

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