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NY State Championship Meet - Predictions by Class
Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are NOT absolute ... they are only one indication of team strength ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 4, 2003 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... Updated Nov 9, 2003 with the actual scores.
[Boys Class A] ... [Boys Class B] ... [Boys Class C] ... [Boys Class D]
[Girls Class A] ... [Girls Class B] ... [Girls Class C] ... [Girls Class D]
| Boys Class A ... Shenendehowa easily |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
=================== ===== ================== =====
1 Shenendehowa 26 (Sec 02) Shenendehowa 37 (Sec 02)
2 Fayetteville-Manlius 102 (Sec 03) Fayetteville-Manlius 87 (Sec 03)
3 North Rockland 103 (Sec 01) North Rockland 97 (Sec 01)
4 Fairport 128 (Sec 05) Lockport 107 (Sec 06)
5 Warwick 128 (Sec 09) Warwick 110 (Sec 09)
6 Lockport 128 (Sec 06) Fairport 150 (Sec 05)
7 Northport 137 (Sec 11) Ithaca 156 (Sec 04)
8 Syosset 138 (Sec 08) Northport 159 (Sec 11)
9 Ithaca 175 (Sec 04) Syosset 224 (Sec 08)
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Post-Race
... predictions were decent Pre-Race Analysis ... Shenendehowa overlays this race with an exceptionally deep and talented team ... they could place four runners in the top ten finishers ... I couldn't separate FM and North Rockland - the one point difference shown above is really meaningless ... the next five teams are also evenly-matched - but also, any one of them could jump up and finish second ... behind Shen, this is a very competitive race ... Lockport could certainly improve if Mark Russell is able to run effectively ... Warwick could be very good ... Fairport has the advantage of being familiar with the course ... I won't be surprised if places 2 through 8 in the actual race are jumbled a lot from what is predicted above. The individual race has exceptional talent ... Hakon DeVries (John Jay EF) is coming off an injury, but won sectionals - a 100% healthy Hakon DeVries is still the best runner in the State ... Kevin Tschirhart (Northport) is returning to form after an injury and is capable of winning ... the top four Shen runners (Jacob Gurzler, Scott Mindel, Ryan Gaedje and Phil Roach) will be close - I wonder if they'd rather beat each other? ... Bryan Buchanan (CNS) has been running very well ... several other runners will be close (Teddy Quinn (Rush-Hen) knows the course well). |
| Boys Class B ... Tappan Zee over Burnt Hills |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
=================== ===== ================== =====
1 Tappan Zee 75 (Sec 01) Tappan Zee 73 (Sec 01)
2 Burnt Hills 91 (Sec 02) Burnt Hills 76 (Sec 02)
3 Victor 128 (Sec 05) Shoreham Wading River 134 (Sec 11)
4 Shoreham Wading River 128 (Sec 11) Victor 138 (Sec 05)
5 Canton 138 (Sec 10) Starpoint 138 (Sec 06)
6 Westhill 139 (Sec 03) Canton 144 (Sec 10)
7 Starpoint 145 (Sec 06) Peru 161 (Sec 07)
8 Manhasset 149 (Sec 08) Westhill 170 (Sec 03)
9 Cornwall 157 (Sec 09) Cornwall 177 (Sec 09)
10 Maine-Endwell 193 (Sec 04) Maine-Endwell 203 (Sec 04)
11 Peru 220 (Sec 07) Manhasset 217 (Sec 08)
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Post-Race
... predictions were good ... but Peru ran much better than
expected. Pre-Race Analysis ... Tappan Zee has been good all year, and is the favorite to win ... Burnt Hills is also good - the simulations say they aren't that far behind and have a chance of upsetting Tappan Zee ... the next group of teams are closely matched. Individually, Kyle Heath (Victor) is a strong favorite to win - he is definitely one of the top runners in the State (any class) ... Mark Stevens (Pittsford Sutherland) is not too far behind - both Heath and Stevens know the course well. |
| Boys Class C ... South Lewis is the favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
=================== ===== ================== =====
1 South Lewis 64 (Sec 03) South Lewis 43 (Sec 03)
2 Fonda Fultonville 96 (Sec 02) Bayport-BluePt 107 (Sec 11)
3 Waverly 110 (Sec 04) JFK 109 (Sec 06)
4 Bayport-BluePt 123 (Sec 11) Waverly 120 (Sec 04)
5 JFK 124 (Sec 06) Waterloo 131 (Sec 05)
6 James O'Neill 144 (Sec 09) James O'Neill 135 (Sec 09)
7 Wheatley 144 (Sec 08) Fonda Fultonville 138 (Sec 02)
8 Edgemont 144 (Sec 01) Edgemont 165 (Sec 01)
9 Waterloo 151 (Sec 05) Wheatley 177 (Sec 08)
10 Saranac Lake 210 (Sec 07) Saranac Lake 221 (Sec 07)
11 Potsdam 318 (Sec 10) Potsdam 339 (Sec 10)
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Post-Race
... South Lewis ran very well and won by more than expected Pre-Race Analysis ... South Lewis has come on strong recently - they beat a good Sauquoit Valley team two weeks in a row with exceptional performances by their top four runners ... if South Louis duplicates these races, they should win handily ... Fonda Fultonville is capable, but they will need their very best performance ... the next group of teams are fairly evenly matched. The individual race has several solid contenders including Josh Arthur (South Lewis) and David Weart (James O'Neill) ... Southampton's duo of Geary Gubbins and Luis German are capable along with John Nicotera (Sauquoit) and Conor Farrell (Bayport). |
| Boys Class D ... Surprise - Too close to call ... Oakfield-Alabama & Tully |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
=================== ===== ================== =====
1 Oakfield-Alabama 77 (Sec 05) Tully 38 (Sec 03)
2 Tully 78 (Sec 03) Oakfield-Alabama 80 (Sec 05)
3 Rhinebeck 101 (Sec 09) Rhinebeck 100 (Sec 09)
4 Seton Catholic 105 (Sec 04) Berne-Knox 118 (Sec 02)
5 Berne-Knox 123 (Sec 02) Seton Catholic 129 (Sec 04)
6 Bronxville 148 (Sec 01) Bronxville 142 (Sec 01)
7 Ticonderoga 168 (Sec 07) Ticonderoga 166 (Sec 07)
8 Sherman 178 (Sec 06) Sherman 179 (Sec 06)
9 Salmon River 206 (Sec 10) Salmon River 232 (Sec 10)
10 Port Jefferson 222 (Sec 11) Port Jefferson 240 (Sec 11)
11 East Rockaway 276 (Sec 08)
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Post-Race
... Tully had their best race this season by far ... I'm
very happy I was off on their predicted performance ... everything
else was pretty much to form Pre-Race Analysis ... OK, I'm biased for Tully, but the simulations give a very slight advantage to Oakfield-Alabama ... OA ran very well on the Whitman course at sectionals - they could place four runners between Lomong-Luka and the 3rd Tully runner (or close to it, which is reminiscent of what Sauquoit did to Tully all last year) ... Behind Lomong & Luka, the Tully guys must run their best - if they do, Tully should win ... but Tully has never run this course before, and that could be a deciding factor. Individually, Lopez Lomong and Dominic Luka should finish one-two fairly easily ... Hopefully, they will hold something in reserve for the Federation Meet the following week. |
| Girls Class A ... Saratoga easily |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Saratoga 29 (Sec 02) Saratoga 25 (Sec 02)
2 Warwick 86 (Sec 09) Bay Shore 85 (Sec 11)
3 Bay Shore 99 (Sec 11) Warwick 110 (Sec 09)
4 Fairport 115 (Sec 05) Fairport 123 (Sec 05)
5 Cicero-North Syr 130 (Sec 03) Cicero-North Syr 130 (Sec 03)
6 Orchard Park 134 (Sec 06) Suffern 139 (Sec 01)
7 Suffern 159 (Sec 01) Orchard Park 147 (Sec 06)
8 Mepham 186 (Sec 08) Mepham 189 (Sec 08)
9 Ithaca 199 (Sec 04) Ithaca 196 (Sec 04)
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Post-Race
... predictions were decent again Pre-Race Analysis ... Saratoga is the overwhelming favorite - they are the best and deepest team in the nation ... Bay Shore would be predicted as 2nd, but I excluded Mary Liz McCurdy from the simulations (probably won't run due to injury). The individual race is Super ... some of the very best runners in the Northeast US will be competing head-to-head ... Nicole Blood (Saratoga) is the favorite, but just behind her are a group of outstanding runners that include Brittney Criscuolo (East Meadow), Aislinn Ryan (Warwick), Laura Cummings (Bay Shore), Lindsey Ferguson (Saratoga), Caitlin McTague (Niskayuna), Brittany Sheffey (Bellport), Brittany Crawford (FM), Shannon Crane (Lancaster), Ellen Dougherty (Riverhead) and Emily Malinowsky (Bethlehem). |
| Girls Class B ... Honeoye Falls-Lima favorite again |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Honeoye Falls-Lima 53 (Sec 05) Honeoye Falls-Lima 54 (Sec 05)
2 Elmira Southside 98 (Sec 04) Elmira Southside 95 (Sec 04)
3 Burnt Hills 120 (Sec 02) East Aurora 112 (Sec 06)
4 East Aurora 120 (Sec 06) Pearl River 112 (Sec 01)
5 Cornwall 122 (Sec 09) Cornwall 120 (Sec 09)
6 Pearl River 139 (Sec 01) MillerPlace 126 (Sec 11)
7 Westhill 163 (Sec 03) Burnt Hills 132 (Sec 02)
8 Floral Park 176 (Sec 08) Westhill 173 (Sec 03)
9 MillerPlace 178 (Sec 11) Franklin Acad(Malone) 186 (Sec 10)
10 Franklin Acad(Malone) 192 (Sec 10) Floral Park 263 (Sec 08)
11 Peru 300 (Sec 07) Peru 293 (Sec 07)
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Post-Race
... Top two teams ran precisely to form Pre-Race Analysis ... Honeoye Falls-Lima is a solid favorite to defend their State title ... Elmira Southside appears second-best with Burnt Hills, East Aurora, Cornwall and Pearl River close behind ... there could be some surprises in this group if any one team has all five runners performing at their peak. The individual race appears very close between Lynn Kubeja (Honeoye Falls) and Sarah Allen (Southern Springs) - Sarah Allen has been running her very best recently - Lynn Kubeja usually runs her best at championship races ... Liz Cufari (Pittsford Sutherland) and Danielle Schaub (Scotia-Glenville) are capable of winning. |
| Girls Class C ... Skaneateles a solid favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Skaneateles 44 (Sec 03) Skaneateles 53 (Sec 03)
2 Saranac Lake 87 (Sec 07) Saranac Lake 83 (Sec 07)
3 Bayport-BluePt 106 (Sec 11) Bayport-BluePt 97 (Sec 11)
4 Chatham 106 (Sec 02) Chatham 104 (Sec 02)
5 Sullivan West 112 (Sec 09) Sullivan West 119 (Sec 09)
6 Attica 182 (Sec 05) Attica 164 (Sec 05)
7 Lansing 192 (Sec 04) Lansing 167 (Sec 04)
8 Albertus Magnus 194 (Sec 01) Newfane 200 (Sec 06)
9 Newfane 209 (Sec 06) Carle Place 246 (Sec 08)
10 Carle Place 239 (Sec 08) Albertus Magnus 257 (Sec 01)
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Post-Race
... some more decent predictions Pre-Race Analysis ... Skaneateles has beaten the best Class A teams in Section 3, and is a solid favorite to regain the State Class C title - the additional of Jessica O'Neill bolsters an already good team. Nichole Lister (South Jefferson) is the overwhelming favorite to win the individual title - she's competitive with the best runners in the State (Federations could be interesting). |
| Girls Class D ... Argyle - the best small school in the nation |
Predicted Actual
School Score School Score
================== ===== ================== =====
1 Argyle 20 (Sec 02) Argyle 22 (Sec 02)
2 Beaver River 55 (Sec 03) Beaver River 47 (Sec 03)
3 Bronxville 79 (Sec 01) Bronxville 81 (Sec 01)
4 Thomas Edison 121 (Sec 04) Thomas Edison 115 (Sec 04)
5 Millbrook 150 (Sec 09) Randolph 156 (Sec 06)
6 Seton Catholic 193 (Sec 07) Notre Dame-Batavia 167 (Sec 05)
7 Randolph 193 (Sec 06) Millbrook 178 (Sec 09)
8 Notre Dame-Batavia 198 (Sec 05) Seton Catholic 194 (Sec 07)
9 Norwood-Norfolk 220 (Sec 10) Norwood-Norfolk 243 (Sec 10)
10 East Rockaway 273 (Sec 08) Shelter Island 285 (Sec 11)
11 Shelter Island 273 (Sec 11) East Rockaway 304 (Sec 08)
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Post-Race
... The top four teams were predicted quite well ...
Randolph and Notre Dame-Batavia had good races Pre-Race Analysis ... Argyle is the solid favorite for good reason - they have proven themselves against top teams from around the State and nation - the only team Argyle can't beat is Saratoga (the best team in the nation) ... Beaver River is an outstanding team - they still haven't shown their best race - I'm guessing Beaver River will run well enough to automatically qualify for Federations. The individual race could be competitive amongst Caitlin Lane (Argyle), Emily Fung (Argyle), Heather Iatauro (Tri-Valley) and Lauren Moser (Beaver River) ... Moser beat them all last year to win the individual championship ... This year, Caitlin Lane seems to have the speed advantage, but Moser can make it much closer than the numbers might indicate. |