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National Pre-Season XC 2026

GIRLS Teams - National 2026

Bill Meylan (July 29, 2026)

 
  • Girls - Contending National Teams
  •  ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
  •  
  • Purpose
  •  ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
  •  
  • Ranking Method
  •  ... General extension of the 2025 XC season into 2026
  •  ... Focus on cross country results ... Limited modification with track results
  •  ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
  •  ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN National & Regional races
  •  ... Consider performance in championship races such as State Championships
  •  ... Initially, combine possible teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
  •  ... Eliminate 5-10 teams with the worst scores in an iterative process
  •  ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors

Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2026 race results are what count.

NOTE ... I manipulated limited "overall ratings" based on track performances.

I did add some Regional Projections based on all teams I considered.

 

 National GIRLS Teams 2026
 

 Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2026
 ... Note - Scores are based on a race simulations of 30 teams
 

                                     Approximate
                                        Team
      School                   State    Score    NXN Region
      --------------------     -----    -----    ----------
  1   Union Catholic             NJ      180     Northeast
  2   Lone Peak                  UT      190     Southwest
  3   Buchanan (CS)              CA      220     California
  4   Niwot                      CO      260     Southwest
  5   Barrington                 IL      260     Midwest
  6   JSerra Catholic (SS)       CA      260     California
  7   Sehome                     WA      280     Northwest
  8   Ann Arbor Pioneer          MI      345     Midwest
  9   American Fork              UT      350     Southwest
  10  Flower Mound               TX      355     South
  11  El Toro (SS)               CA      390     California
  12  St. Francis (SJ)           CA      405     California
  13  Boulder                    CO      420     Southwest
  14  Billerica Memorial         MA      415     Northeast
  15  Lexington                  MA      420     Northeast
  16  Ridgewood HS               NJ      420     Northeast
  17  James W. Robinson          VA      435     Southeast
  18  Pella                      IA      450     Heartland
  19  Carmel                     IN      450     Midwest
  20  Fort Wayne Concordia Luth  IN      460     Midwest
  21  Waukee Northwest           IA      470     Heartland
  22  Bethlehem                  NY      475     New York
  23  The Classical Academy      CO      475     Southwest
  24  Mira Costa (SS)            CA      480     California
  25  Katy                       TX      485     South
  26  Bloomer                    WI      490     Heartland
  27  Lake Zurich                IL      490     Midwest
  28  Arlington Heights(Hersey)  IL      500     Midwest
  29  Mt. Prospect (Prospect)    IL      500     Midwest
  30  Bentonville                AR      505     Southeast

 		
 
 
   The next group is basically in order following the list above ...
     ... Teams not listed were excluded for lack of XC data (my speed ratings) 
         or XC data not high enough for inclusion ... 
        Track data ALONE NOT used for ANY inclusions.
        
        See the Regional Projections below - They also list an Average Scorer
          Speed Rating for each of the Teams I considered in this article.


      Harrisburg                 SD    Heartland
      Rocky Mountain             ID    Northwest
      Heritage                   CO    Southwest
      Penn Charter               PA    Northeast
      Neenah                     WI    Heartland
      Great Oak (SS)             CA    California
      Sage Creek (SD)            CA    California
      Claremont (SS)             CA    California
      Bozeman                    MT    Northwest
      ThunderRidge               CO    Southwest
      Cardinal Gibbons           NC    Southeast
      Air Academy                CO    Southwest
      Jesuit Portland            OR    Northwest
      Brentwood                  TN    Southeast
      Hudsonville                MI    Midwest
      Mercer Island              WA    Northwest
      Saratoga Springs           NY    New York
      Cumberland                 RI    Northeast
      Saint Michael-Albertville  MN    Heartland
      Southlake Carroll          TX    South
      Chicago (Lane)             IL    Midwest
      Bishop Kenny HS            FL    Southeast
      Edmond Memorial            OK    South
      Winnetka (New Trier)       IL    Midwest
      Seattle Preparatory School WA    Northwest
      Hanover                    VA    Southeast
      Blacksburg                 VA    Southeast
      Northville                 MI    Midwest
      Georgetown Visitation Prep DC    Southeast
      The Woodlands              TX    South
      Ann Arbor Skyline          MI    Midwest
      Edwardsville (H.S.)        IL    Midwest
      North Lincoln              NC    Southeast
      Gallatin                   MT    Northwest
      Crater                     OR    Northwest
      Rogers                     AR    South
      Plainfield (North)         IL    Midwest
      Edina                      MN    Heartland
      Episcopal Sch Jacksonville FL    Southeast
      Guilderland                NY    New York
      Marvin Ridge               NC    Southeast
      Chicago (St. Ignatius)     IL    Midwest
      Century                    ND    Heartland
      Lincoln HS                 OR    Northwest
      
 
				
  • Where did the scores come from?
  •  ... 2025 Seasonal Speed Ratings (primary factor)
  •  ... Limited manual manipulation based on track results
  •  ... Manual manipulation based on Guessing
  • General Comments for the Coming Season
  •  
  •  ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
  •  ... Just like last year, Union Catholic and Lone Peak are the two favorites based on returning runners and speed ratings ... Union Catholic has slightly better projected speed ratings and they finished 3rd at NXN last year ... Lone Peak finished 4th at NXN last year (4 points behind Union Catholic) and Lone Peak races very well at the NXN course ... Lone Peak graduated 3 runners from NXN compared to only one for Union Catholic, but Lone Peak is reportedly adding a very good transfer runner.
  •  
  • Most of the other highly ranked teams simply need to add one additional impact or improved runner to be a contender ... and I think that is likely to happen.
  • Not surprising and again like last year, 3 Southwest teams are in the top 9 ... and the Southwest finished #2, #4, #5 and #7 at NXN last year.
  • Four Northeast teams are being projected in the top grouping, so I must be crazy ... But the numbers do suggest it ... I will be surprised if any Northeast team becomes an "At-Large" NXN selection ... But again, I am pointing-out teams that I might be interested in following based on last year's performances.
  •  
  • And four California teams in the top 12 ... Unlikely to happen at NXN based on recent performance ... BUT my Pre-Season Ranking is not just an NXN Projection ... I am trying to identify potentially talented teams in an overall speed-rating order throughout the season ... and as we have all seen, some very good teams do not race well at NXN Nationals.
  • Pre-season Ranking has some serious limitations:
  • ... Transfers (in/out), runners moving, runners no longer competing, injuries/sickness are generally unknown to me and are not factored into these rankings ... just one transfer was considered here ... so there are likely some errors in the runners used to derive some team scores and speed rating averages.
  • ... New runners may be known (and predictable) by people in local areas ... But not by me ... and it makes a difference.
  • ... Pre-season requires guessing ... it might be right or wrong ... and that is OK.
  • ... Pre-Season Rankings are only good for identifying teams of potential ability to watch once the season starts ... At this point, my method can exclude good teams that will be ranked throughout the XC season, BUT those teams can be identified during the season (which is much more important than pre-season).
  •  
  • ... Very little separates many of the lower-ranked teams ... Most ranking placement was determined by speed-rating simulations (which varied quite a bit) ... One new "good" runner on most teams or one scorer having an "off" race made a significant difference in ranking position ... So I made a Best-Guess.

 

Comments on the TOP 30 Teams:
 

Note - The overall incoming speed rating number (the first number for each runner below) is a based on last year's seasonal speed ratings (the numbers in the parentheses () that are in sequential order with the most recent first) ... PLUS manipulation by me.

----------------------------------

#1 - Union Catholic Reg NJ ... Union Catholic finished 3rd at NXN Nationals last year (and 10th in both 2024 and 2023) ... They won NXR Northeast handily ... They return 6 of 7 runners from NXN losing the #5 scorer... Union Catholic enters the 2026 XC season as the top-rated team ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

152 -- Paige Sheppard -- 12 -- ( 152 149 140 152 146 147 150 148 )
141 -- Cayleigh Kaiser -- 12 -- ( 139 142 143 139 135 135 137 )
137 -- Harper Telesca -- 10 -- ( 131 142 140 129 125 129 127 )
122 -- Sophia Thompson -- 12 -- ( 121 122 )
117 -- Eden Solorzano -- 10 -- ( 115 118 113 108 110 115 122 )
116 -- Jia Jain -- 10 -- ( 119 107 110 89 99 )
114 -- Saffa Ellis -- 11 -- ( 103 108 121 120 107 102 )

#2 - Lone Peak UT ... Lone Peak finished 4th at NXN Nationals last year, 2nd in 2024 and 4th at NXN in both 2023 and 2022 ... So they race extremely well at NXN ... Lone Peak graduated 3 runners from last year's NXN team (the #1, #3, and #7 scorers) ... However, they are a deep team and reportedly they got a top transfer from American Forks (Mae Glassford, noted below) ... Lone Peak is a serious contender to win NXN in 2026 based on their recent performance record at NXN.... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

133 -- Maya Bybee -- 12 -- ( 130 131 132 136 134 133 130 )
133 -- Mae Glassford -- 10 -- ( 135 133 128 125 125 119 119 121 119 )
127 -- Hailey Atwater -- 12 -- ( 128 126 122 124 115 106 )
126 -- Tatum Brewer -- 11 -- ( 123 131 120 121 125 115 118 )
124 -- Paityn Rohatinsky -- 12 -- ( 125 120 126 124 117 121 102 )
120 -- Teagan Harris -- 11 -- ( 122 119 117 111 115 111 )
110 -- Camille Shields -- 11 -- ( 113 113 98 101 102 86 91 )

#3 - Buchanan (CS) CA ... Buchanan did not have their best race at NXN last year and finished 17th ... Buchanan finished 3rd at NXN Nationals in 2024 (after finishing 8th at NXN 2023 and 3rd at NXN 2022), so they are usually very good at the NXN course ... Buchanan returns 6 of 7 runners from NXN losing just the #3 scorer ... Buchanan races well at NXN and they have shown an ability to reload with some good new runners, and that makes them a real contender to podium at NXN ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

133 -- Brooklyn Buckley -- 11 -- ( 125 135 130 135 129 128 )
133 -- Molly Sundgren -- 12 -- ( 115 136 127 135 108 )
131 -- Layla Merancio -- 11 -- ( 113 131 131 131 135 115 )
122 -- Aniston Welk -- 10 -- ( 101 124 122 107 )
122 -- Noelle Frantz -- 10 -- ( 119 119 125 102 )
120 -- Gaby Gutierrez -- 11 -- ( 110 117 121 122 116 127 )
114 -- Katerine Anderson -- 11 -- ( 113 115 84 )
 

#4 - Niwot CO ... Niwot finished an excellent 2nd at NXN last year after finishing 3rd at NXR Southwest ... Niwot finished a very good 2nd to Air Academy at NXN Nationals 2023 and 2nd to Saratoga Springs at NXN Nationals in 2022, so Niwot can race very well at NXN ... They return 4 of 7 runners from NXN (losing the #1 and #2 scorers) ... But Niwot has good team depth and could re-load enough to be competitive ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

130 -- Tereza Koudelka -- 10 -- ( 131 129 114 115 121 91 111 95 105 98 )
127 -- Scarlett Parks -- 12 -- ( 128 123 105 122 117 113 )
125 -- Elise Hagen -- 12 -- ( 126 124 121 109 118 )
117 -- Emily Bolda -- 10 -- ( 114 120 116 114 115 102 119 107 110 99 )
117 -- Siona Kelly -- 10 -- ( 116 103 118 116 115 107 117 108 110 86 )
115 -- Ephie Hagen -- 10 -- ( 109 115 117 100 108 104 109 111 )
113 -- Kelly Wilson -- 12 -- ( 110 108 120 89 117 102 95 )

#5 - Barrington IL ... Barrington finished 6th at NXR Midwest last year, but were missing their top runner (Mia Sirois) due to injury ... They return 5 of 7 runners including their top 3 (and now add Mia Sirois) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

156 -- Mia Sirois -- 12 -- ( 158 155 153 144 134 (2024) )
131 -- Victoria Tarara -- 11 -- ( 130 133 117 109 )
126 -- Angelica Hil -- 12 -- ( 127 126 121 122 )
121 -- Ashleigh Forbes -- 10 -- ( 107 126 )
111 -- Cece Babel -- 10 -- ( 106 113 )
108 -- Hannah Forbes -- 10 -- ( 108 107 )
107 -- Evelyn Lefort -- 12 -- ( 104 103 110 109 97 99 )

#6 - JSerra Catholic (SS) CA ... JSerra Catholic finished 21st at NXN Nationals last year (they were 16th at NXN in 2024, 13th at NXN in 2023 and 21st at NXN in 2022) ... They finished 3rd in the California State Meet Merge last year ... JSerra Catholic returns 6 of 7 runners from those races (losing 1 scorer) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

134 -- Kaia Streadbeck -- 11 -- ( 128 136 )
133 -- Maya Pawlowicz -- 10 -- ( 129 134 126 133 137 133 )
131 -- Reese Holley -- 12 -- ( 115 128 122 135 136 135 )
125 -- Brooklyn Tennant -- 10 -- ( 96 132 124 120 125 121 )
116 -- Hayden Kroger -- 12 -- ( 105 115 118 111 113 120 )
115 -- Sierra Harden -- 10 -- ( 103 101 119 115 )
113 -- Hutton Nelligan -- 12 -- ( 106 110 112 112 121 110 )

#7 - Sehome WA ... Sehome finished 10th at NXN Nationals last year after winning NXR Northwest ... They return 6 of 7 runners including their top 5 scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

136 -- Kjirsten Ludeman -- 11 -- ( 134 137 134 137 129 )
134 -- Sloane Clines -- 11 -- ( 122 134 133 127 131 )
130 -- Samantha Knipp -- 12 -- ( 130 131 121 124 120 )
125 -- Lil Desler -- 12 -- ( 122 124 124 130 123 )
105 -- Paige Ricks -- 10 -- ( 84 103 103 104 105 )
85 -- Helen Buetow -- 12 -- ( 69 90 80 71 87 )
81 -- Aven Bates -- 11 -- ( 81 79 )

#8 - Ann Arbor Pioneer MI ... Ann Arbor Pioneer finished 18th at NXN Nationals last year after winning NXR Midwest ... They return 6 of 7 runners losing just one scorer ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

167 -- Natasza Dudek -- 11 -- ( 169 168 165 165 157 156 156 154 144 )
135 -- Sienna Klemmer -- 11 -- ( 135 118 135 130 136 136 137 134 143 )
126 -- Keira Von Blon -- 10 -- ( 102 127 129 122 129 127 123 118 111 )
107 -- Lizzie Wernimont -- 12 -- ( 97 107 107 103 107 105 98 99 96 )
105 -- Nina Moore -- 12 -- ( 98 109 105 98 104 101 99 96 104 )
100 -- Laura Forsyth -- 10 -- ( 91 78 94 92 94 98 101 105 99 )
92 -- Mia Lopez -- 12 -- ( 95 75 74 69 67 )

#9 - American Fork UT ... American Fork finished a very good 7th at NXN Nationals last year after finishing 4th at NXR Southwest ... They return all 7 runners from those races, BUT apparently lose one runner to transfer (Mae Glassford to Lone Peak) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

136 -- Skye Jensen -- 12 -- ( 135 136 137 133 129 128 131 135 128 )
127 -- Cali Dooley -- 10 -- ( 126 127 123 123 124 117 119 114 119 )
120 -- Sarah Watson -- 11 -- ( 120 117 120 114 119 117 101 108 105 )
110 -- Sophie Bahr -- 12 -- ( 95 113 103 106 96 100 82 84 )
107 -- Shay Smith -- 12 -- ( 106 108 106 103 93 102 90 99 104 )
106 -- Rebekah Jacob -- 11 -- ( 104 108 100 107 104 105 94 81 )
103 -- Mara Jensen -- 12 -- ( 100 106 91 90 69 92 85 )

#10 - Flower Mound TX ... Flower Mound finished 9th at NXN Nationals last year (and 14th at NXN 2024, 17th at NXN 2023 and 6th at NXN 2022) ... Flower Mound won  NXR South ... They return 5 of 7 runners from those races (but lose 2 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

138 -- Adeline Bennett -- 12 -- ( 121 143 138 129 134 140 127 )
132 -- Liana Cluley-Garza -- 12 -- ( 127 135 125 116 132 132 127 120 )
117 -- Jewel Barnes -- 11 -- ( 120 113 99 94 84 )
113 -- Eliana Rivera -- 12 -- ( 101 108 121 116 108 108 108 108 103 )
111 -- Allie Driscoll -- 11 -- ( 107 114 106 107 100 111 100 107 )
103 -- Megan Schmidt -- 12 -- ( 100 105 90 97 106 107 98 97 )
103 -- Avery Cauble -- 11 -- ( 109 92 97 91 75 )

#11 - El Toro (SS) CA ... El Toro did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 8th in the California State Meet Merge, but return all 7 runners ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

129 -- Lilly Schroeder -- 11 -- ( 130 128 125 116 116 )
128 -- Gweneth Williams -- 12 -- ( 123 128 129 120 128 )
127 -- Ava Crocker -- 11 -- ( 126 127 106 132 )
119 -- Samantha Danaher -- 12 -- ( 119 116 117 121 )
110 -- Malena Pedrani -- 12 -- ( 109 106 107 112 111 )
109 -- Sarah Foster -- 10 -- ( 108 109 99 98 )
107 -- Sarah Ann Tok -- 11 -- ( 100 108 110 99 99 )

#12 - St. Francis (SJ) CA ... St. Francis did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 10th in the California State Meet Merge, and return 6 of 7 runners including all 5 scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

140 -- Alyssa Gutierrez -- 10 -- ( 141 134 139 136 138 )
119 -- Halle Welch -- 11 -- ( 118 112 120 124 119 )
118 -- Sunny Schranz -- 12 -- ( 118 105 119 111 110 )
115 -- Miya Menza -- 11 -- ( 114 93 115 114 115 )
112 -- Sophia Kadel -- 11 -- ( 113 96 118 100 104 )
107 -- Rebecca Dickson -- 10 -- ( 106 87 108 108 106 )
100 -- Mia Hollar -- 12 -- ( 98 101 )

#13 - Boulder CO ... Boulder did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 6th at NXR Southwest and 4th at the competitive Colorado State Meet ... they return 5 of 7 runners from those races (losing 1 or 2 scorers) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

132 -- Calia Vaughn -- 11 -- ( 132 132 123 128 134 132 )
124 -- Sophia Africa -- 12 -- ( 126 121 118 124 124 121 111 )
120 -- Kajsa Wik -- 10 -- ( 104 119 118 116 121 117 103 )
115 -- Emery Agnew -- 10 -- ( 114 111 111 109 121 115 107 )
106 -- Lucy Friend -- 11 -- ( 99 103 107 107 102 95 )
105 -- Nora Quatrochi -- 11 -- ( 110 100 92 95 101 98 79 )
98 -- Emilia Smouse -- 12 -- ( 87 90 100 87 )

#14 - Billerica Memorial MA ... Billerica Memorial did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 8th at NXR Northeast and 2nd at the Massachusetts State Meet ... they return all 7 runners from those races (a few track results may suggest some improvement) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

127 -- Kylie Donahue -- 11 -- ( 122 126 117 111 )
124 -- Maya Niles -- 9 -- ( 113 124 99 93 )
120 -- Caitlin Donahue -- 11 -- ( 112 119 112 112 )
117 -- Hartlie Siegal -- 12 -- ( 106 103 119 )
108 -- Evelyn Wesling -- 10 -- ( 109 106 )
102 -- Madelynn Larosa -- 12 -- ( 98 89 88 90 )
101 -- Gianna McGowan -- 12 -- ( 101 )

#15 - Lexington MA ... Lexington did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 6th at NXR Northeast and 1st at the Massachusetts State Meet ... they return 5 of 7 runners from those races including all 5 scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

138 -- Jane Conrad -- 11 -- ( 141 134 128 131 )
119 -- Ella Tyson -- 11 -- ( 116 121 115 108 )
116 -- Alycia Charest -- 12 -- ( 116 117 113 101 )
115 -- Erin Ehmann -- 12 -- ( 112 117 112 111 )
112 -- Callie Glenn -- 12 -- ( 107 114 112 111 )
99 -- Emma Kosnik -- 10 -- ( 99 94 )
82 -- Addy Haiar -- 11 -- ( 82 63 )

#16 - Ridgewood HS NJ ... Ridgewood did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 4th at NXR Northeast and 2nd at the New Jersey Meet of Champ ...  they return all 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

137 -- Katherine Keating -- 12 -- ( 133 140 129 125 )
124 -- Natalie Knowles -- 11 -- ( 127 116 121 120 )
119 -- Maeve Schoeler -- 12 -- ( 118 119 114 )
118 -- Penelope De Valence -- 11 -- ( 118 120 114 100 )
100 -- Hunter Witham -- 11 -- ( 99 96 97 90 )
98 -- Ella Recchiuti -- 12 -- ( 98 98 79 88 80 )
90 -- Abi Marino -- 11 -- ( 90 92 84 74 79 )

#17 - James W. Robinson VA ... James W. Robinson finished 4th at NXR Southeast and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... James W. Robinson won the Virginia State Class 6 race ... they return 5 of 7 runners including the top 3 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

131 -- Karina Bird -- 12 -- ( 133 127 123 127 128 121 )
128 -- Petra Gruendel -- 11 -- ( 126 109 129 134 125 130 )
124 -- Alexandra Bird -- 12 -- ( 126 120 121 124 118 121 )
108 -- Claire Andresen -- 10 -- ( 97 109 112 104 101 106 )
100 -- Juliet Lord -- 10 -- ( 100 100 100 )
98 -- Isabella Willard -- 12 -- ( 87 94 94 99 85 99 )
97 -- Ciara Jensen -- 12 -- ( 78 99 78 98 )

#18 - Pella IA ... Pella finished 3rd at NXR Heartland and did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... Pella won the Iowa State 3A Meet ... they returns 5 of 7 runners losing their #1 scorer ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

128 -- Elsie Brenneman -- 12 -- ( 131 125 125 122 111 118 118 )
117 -- Harlee Vande Voort -- 11 -- ( 118 115 103 105 )
117 -- Ruth Dunham -- 12 -- ( 119 114 110 95 97 101 85 )
115 -- Lizzy Vande Voort -- 11 -- ( 116 93 114 )
111 -- Carleigh Altwine -- 11 -- ( 112 107 104 107 102 )
95 -- Dana McCulla -- 11 -- ( 89 95 92 76 82 66 )
63 -- McKyndree Treft -- 10 -- ( 63 )

#19 - Carmel IN ... Carmel finished 4th at NXR Midwest and did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they won the Indiana State Meet ... Carmel was 15th at NXN Nationals in 2024  ... They return 4 of 7 runners losing 2 scorers ... Carmel usually has some depth ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

142 -- Annabel Pollert -- 12 -- ( 145 140 137 128 139 139 135 135 134 )
135 -- Larkin Taylor -- 12 -- ( 132 136 136 134 132 130 131 )
119 -- Margo Halle -- 11 -- ( 120 118 115 98 96107 111 )
101 -- Anna Yoon -- 12 -- ( 99 98 99 100 101 100 85 )
100 -- Elise Maurer -- 11 -- ( 80 97 100 98 81 )
98 -- Ashley Kent -- 10 -- ( 93 90 98 94 78 )
92 -- Maija Gilhooly -- 12 -- ( 85 77 92 86 66 )

#20 - Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran IN ... Fort Wayne Concordia Lutheran finished 3rd at NXR Midwest last year and did not compete at NXN Nationals ... They finished 2nd at the Indiana State Meet and return their 5 of 7 runners losing 2 scorers (but returning their top 2) ... They also finished 2nd at the RunningLane XC Championship ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

144 -- Daphne Weller -- 11 -- ( 145 142 141 144 140 134 118 )
125 -- Leighton Archer -- 10 -- ( 121 105 127 130 122 112 )
111 -- Brylee Crass -- 12 -- ( 106 112 )
110 -- Luci Hogue -- 10 -- ( 107 113 113 97 97 92 )
108 -- Maddie Gentz -- 12 -- ( 108 109 107 107 103 )
102 -- Ryne Nolan -- 10 -- ( 101 103 102 83 83 )
99 -- Natalie Cordes -- 11 -- ( 89 100 97 95 )

#21 - Waukee Northwest IA ... Waukee Northwest did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they won the Iowa State 4A Meet ... they return all 7 runners from that race ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

131 -- Laney Sundet -- 10 -- ( 133 123 121 115 117 )
127 -- Stubbendeck Emmy -- 10 -- ( 129 121 109 )
115 -- Ella Jones -- 11 -- ( 115 113 110 108 )
109 -- Piper Vander Ley -- 11 -- ( 108 110 106 108 98 101 )
107 -- Caroline Opfer -- 12 -- ( 99 110 106 100 100 )
103 -- Emmy Stubbendeck -- 10 -- ( 104 101 )
103 -- Allison Sheriff -- 12 -- ( 105 95 96 91 97 )

#22 - Bethlehem NY ... Bethlehem finished 20th at NXN Nationals last year ... Bethlehem was 5th at NXN 2024, 11th at NXN 2023 and 17th at NXN 2022 ... They were 2nd at NXR New York last year (lost by 1 point) ... They return 5 of 7 runners from NXN Nationals and NXR (losing one scorer) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

140 -- Sophia Chromczak -- 10 -- ( 134 135 140 140 146 143 146 137 )
130 -- Anna Chrapowitzky -- 12 -- ( 109 129 130 129 130 128 125 113 )
110 -- Tess McNamara -- 11 -- ( 91 107 109 110 105 105 100 )
108 -- Sidney Graham -- 11 -- ( 83 81 94 109 102 109 93 )
106 -- Lillian Masters -- 12 -- ( 93 107 90 95 )
96 -- Sophie Syed -- 10 -- ( 92 94 88 104 95 89 98 85 )
83 -- Kaitlyn Petrone -- 10 -- ( 58 96 77 78 63 54 )

#23 - The Classical Academy CO ... The Classical Academy did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 7th at NXR Southwest and 1st at the Colorado State Meet (Class 3A) ... they return all 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

134 -- Vivian Jack -- 12 -- ( 136 134 125 135 124 124 )
124 -- Ellie Askew -- 11 -- ( 128 121 115 117 118 119 )
113 -- Joy Ahnfeldt -- 12 -- ( 117 103 95 85 105 )
109 -- Lena Larsen -- 11 -- ( 113 87 87 83 )
108 -- Brynlee Nygren -- 11 -- ( 111 91 92 93 91 91 )
105 -- Jana Yuschalk -- 12 -- ( 106 100 99 99 109 )
99 -- Aly Yeadon -- 10 -- ( 99 95 90 95 80 )

#24 - Mira Costa (SS) CA ... Mira Costa (SS) finished 13th at NXN Nationals last year ...They finished 2nd in the California State Meet Merge, and return 4 of 7 runners losing their #1 and #5 scorers ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

127 -- Evelyn Ursini -- 11 -- ( 124 127 127 130 124 )
125 -- Mia Ritter -- 12 -- ( 117 129 124 124 117 112 118 )
124 -- Isabella Amy -- 11 -- ( 121 125 125 116 120 113 123 )
108 -- Laney Phelps -- 10 -- ( 99 111 106 111 96 104 )
102 -- Sadie Wilson -- 12 -- ( 102 )
97 -- Megan Shamaly -- 11 -- ( 92 101 91 )
93 -- Alexa Almodovar -- 11 -- ( 93 )

#25 - Katy TX ... Katy did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 3rd at NXR South and 3rd at the Texas State Meet (Class 6A) ... they return all 7 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

126 -- Vienna Fish -- 11 -- ( 119 130 124 106 111 )
117 -- Kinley Skaggs -- 10 -- ( 112 117 119 100 100 )
116 -- Lauren Acopa -- 12 -- ( 115 117 113 113 )
115 -- Avery Torrey -- 11 -- ( 114 110 116 109 103 )
110 -- Abby Lester -- 11 -- ( 109 108 112 105 106 )
86 -- Jasmine Avalos -- 12 -- ( 74 71 88 82 86 )
86 -- Annabelle Hesterman -- 10 -- ( 76 72 86 87 79 )

#26 - Bloomer WI ... Bloomer did not compete at NXN or NXR Heartland last year ... They finished 3rd at the Wisconsin State Meet (Division 1), but I think they were missing one their top runners (If so, the numbers indicate Bloomer could be ranked) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

122 -- Aliya Hartman -- 12 -- ( 123 113 )
121 -- Ciara Hartman -- 12 -- ( 121 )
116 -- Sophie Strand -- 12 -- ( 118 60 )
116 -- Briella Hartman -- 12 -- ( 117 108 )
107 -- Rebecca Anderson -- 10 -- ( 108 90 )
57 -- Hope Conrad -- 12 -- ( 60 41 )

#27 - Lake Zurich IL ... Lake Zurich did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 7th at NXR Midwest and 5th at the Illinois State Meet (Class 3A) ... they return their top 5 runners from those races ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

125 -- Avery Muhr -- 12 -- ( 120 126 )
123 -- Chloe Wettstein -- 10 -- ( 112 125 118 123 )
114 -- Celia Blaylock -- 12 -- ( 115 114 109 112 )
113 -- Patricia Johnson -- 11 -- ( 111 117 91 103 )
109 -- Abigail Kocher -- 10 -- ( 107 113 99 99 )
50 -- Anja Wiersum -- 12 -- ( 50 )
49 -- Riley Pitchford -- 12 -- ( 49 )

#28 - Arlington Heights (Hersey) IL ... Arlington Heights (Hersey) did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 4th at the Illinois State Meet (Class 3A) ... they return 6 of 7 runners including the top 4 ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

126 -- Graceleen Mabry -- 10 -- ( 124 129 119 123 107 )
120 -- Alexa Izenstark -- 12 -- ( 122 107 107 105 )
114 -- Jojo Messer -- 11 -- ( 106 120 108 106 95 )
111 -- Clara Vincent -- 10 -- ( 106 114 99 )
110 -- Alexandra Kopacz -- 12 -- ( 108 110 110 98 )
105 -- Sofia Donner -- 12 -- ( 98 108 93 105 )
92 -- Martyna Makowski -- 12 -- ( 91 67 98 )

#29 - Mt. Prospect (Prospect) IL ... Mt. Prospect (Prospect) did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 5th at NXR Midwest and 2nd at the Illinois State Meet (Class 3A) ... they return 5 of 7 runners (including 4 who were freshmen) ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

126 -- Adelaide Galla -- 10 -- ( 124 126 120 114 )
121 -- Caitlin Resac -- 10 -- ( 121 118 112 106 )
116 -- Brooklyn Stocking -- 10 -- ( 115 118 110 107 )
112 -- Allison Kalkwarf -- 11 -- ( 111 115 104 104 )
106 -- Juliana Mihalopoulos -- 10 -- ( 102 107 )
102 -- Samantha Lobacz -- 11 -- ( 102 )
100 -- Kaitlin Miazga -- 11 -- ( 101 90 )

#30 - Bentonville AR ... Bentonville did not compete at NXN last year ... They finished 5th at NXR South ... They won the Arkansas State Meet (Class 6A) beating Rogers ... Bentonville returns 6 of 7 runners losing just one scorer ... Approximate representative returning speed ratings with available [2025 seasonal ratings]:

133 -- Flannery O'Daniel -- 10 -- (127 132 136 132 127 )
121 -- Madysen Hantuba -- 12 -- (122 119 120 113 )
114 -- Claire Lorimer -- 10 -- (109 107 120 111 )
110 -- Mya Hurley -- 11 -- (49 111 108 )
105 -- Charlotte Miller -- 11 -- (98 106 104 96 )
97 -- Carley Cole -- 11 -- (71 97 )
93 -- Katie Kelley -- 11 -- (88 93 90 )
 

 

 Girls Pre-Season Regional Projections 2026

 

  • Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception)
  •  
  • The list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2025 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams based on my Speed Ratings.
  •  
  • I needed to find enough data on enough returning XC runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams were excluded) ...
  •  
  • I do not believe it is worth spending too much time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good nationally (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... My pre-season lists simply help me identify teams that might need to be followed.

 


** Team Scores calculated using just the teams from that Region ...
The teams listed below are the ONLY teams I considered, either due to
time constraints and/or lack of readily available data (meaning the 
speed ratings needed to be in my databases already) ... So some good
teams will get excluded.


                                            Average
                                 Estimated  Scorer
                                   Team     Speed
                             St    Score    Rating    NXN Region
                            ====   =====   ========   ==========
California
   Buchanan (CS)             CA     54      127.98    California
   JSerra Catholic (SS)      CA     56      127.87    California
   El Toro (SS)              CA    100      122.43    California
   St. Francis (SJ)          CA    110      120.85    California
   Mira Costa (SS)           CA    133      117.22    California
   Claremont (SS)            CA    145      115.83    California
   Sage Creek (SD)           CA    145      116.04    California
   Great Oak (SS)            CA    149      115.47    California

Heartland
   Pella                     IA    111      117.60    Heartland
   Waukee Northwest          IA    127      117.58    Heartland
   Bloomer                   WI    137      116.35    Heartland
   Harrisburg                SD    145      121.57    Heartland
   Neenah                    WI    145      115.34    Heartland
   Saint Michael-Albertville MN    179      112.74    Heartland
   Edina                     MN    192      110.57    Heartland
   Manhattan                 KS    218      108.31    Heartland
   Ankeny Centennial HS      IA    219      108.95    Heartland
   Pleasant Valley           IA    226      108.93    Heartland
   Century                   ND    228      112.06    Heartland
   Waconia                   MN    229      107.68    Heartland
   Wayzata                   MN    241      108.30    Heartland
   Johnston                  IA    268      105.07    Heartland
   Hopkins                   MN    274      103.74    Heartland

Midwest
   Barrington                IL     93      129.09    Midwest
   Ann Arbor Pioneer         MI    155      128.00    Midwest
   Lake Zurich               IL    176      116.89    Midwest
   Arlington Heights(Hersey) IL    176      116.21    Midwest
   Fort Wayne Concordia Luth IN    181      119.40    Midwest
   Mt. Prospect (Prospect)   IL    186      116.11    Midwest
   Carmel                    IN    228      119.38    Midwest
   Hudsonville               MI    245      112.74    Midwest
   Chicago (Lane)            IL    247      111.65    Midwest
   Winnetka (New Trier)      IL    252      111.67    Midwest
   Ann Arbor Skyline         MI    265      110.50    Midwest
   Edwardsville (H.S.)       IL    273      110.62    Midwest
   Northville                MI    275      112.37    Midwest
   Plainfield (North)        IL    287      111.81    Midwest
   Chicago (St. Ignatius)    IL    301      111.43    Midwest
   Homestead                 IN    303      109.41    Midwest
   Holland Christian         MI    310      109.40    Midwest
   Glen Ellyn(Glenbard West) IL    321      108.00    Midwest


New York (see NY Girls Projection Page)
   Bethlehem                 NY    200      118.67    New York
   Saratoga Springs          NY    210      113.05    New York
   Guilderland               NY    235      109.92    New York
   Northport                 NY    330                New York
   Ward Melville             NY    340                New York
   Shenendehowa              NY    345                New York
   Sayville                  NY    345                New York
   Ithaca                    NY    375                New York
   Liverpool                 NY    400                New York
   Cornwall                  NY    415                New York
     *** (NY scores based on a 37 team simulation)

Northeast
   Union Catholic            NJ     39      133.83    Northeast
   Billerica Memorial        MA     86      119.23    Northeast
   Ridgewood HS              NJ     88      119.62    Northeast
   Lexington                 MA     93      119.91    Northeast
   Penn Charter              PA    114      118.44    Northeast
   Cumberland                RI    143      112.99    Northeast
   Norwin                    PA    151      109.40    Northeast
   La Salle Academy          RI    163      107.01    Northeast

Northwest
   Sehome                    WA     64      126.04    Northwest
   Rocky Mountain            ID    111      115.99    Northwest
   Bozeman                   MT    122      114.49    Northwest
   Seattle Preparatory Sch   WA    132      112.00    Northwest
   Mercer Island             WA    137      114.44    Northwest
   Gallatin                  MT    145      110.65    Northwest
   Jesuit  Portland          OR    145      112.40    Northwest
   Crater                    OR    151      112.35    Northwest
   Lincoln HS                OR    183      110.58    Northwest
   Olympia                   WA    185      105.23    Northwest
   Timberline  (Boise)       ID    187      104.88    Northwest

South
   Flower Mound              TX     55      122.16    South
   Katy                      TX     70      116.67    South
   Bentonville               AR     79      116.58    South
   Edmond Memorial           OK    101      112.32    South
   The Woodlands             TX    105      111.32    South
   Rogers                    AR    113      110.72    South
   Southlake Carroll         TX    117      109.76    South


Southeast
   James W. Robinson         VA    104      118.21    Southeast
   Cardinal Gibbons          NC    116      116.57    Southeast
   Brentwood                 TN    122      113.58    Southeast
   Bishop Kenny HS           FL    132      111.99    Southeast
   Blacksburg                VA    140      111.24    Southeast
   Hanover                   VA    142      111.91    Southeast
   North Lincoln             NC    149      110.17    Southeast
   Episcopal Sch Jacksonvill FL    152      110.21    Southeast
   Georgrtown VisitationPrep DC    159      114.57    Southeast
   Marietta                  GA    172      109.67    Southeast
   Marvin Ridge              NC    173      111.32    Southeast  

Southwest
   Lone Peak                 UT     46      128.50    Southwest
   Niwot                     CO     84      122.76    Southwest
   American Fork             UT    108      119.82    Southwest
   Boulder                   CO    116      119.44    Southwest
   The Classical Academy     CO    128      117.62    Southwest
   Heritage                  CO    143      115.34    Southwest
   Air Academy               CO    157      114.49    Southwest
   ThunderRidge              CO    157      114.71    Southwest
   Fairview                  CO    191      109.60    Southwest