Speed Ratings can be used in a variety different ways to project Team Scores:
... Highest Individual Ratings
... Overall Ratings
... Normalized Ratings with Monte Carlo Stat Analysis
... Projected Ratings based on recent performances

And some very different scores can be yielded ... Sometimes a "best-guess" based on other factors is needed.

NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Ward Melville        (11)      77        North Rockland         53
  2   Brighton             (05)      84        Ward Melville          77
  3   North Rockland       (01)      94        Corning                99
  4   Corning              (04)     100        Auburn                105
  5   Saratoga Springs     (02)     106        Brighton              109
  6   Auburn               (03)     110        Saratoga Springs      130
  7   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     155        Monroe-Woodbury       147
  8   West Seneca          (06)     190        Syosset               194
  9   Syosset              (08)     212        West Seneca           196

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Ward Melville is the favorite based on speed ratings in this decent quality race with maybe five teams having a chance ... Brighton is a serious contender ... With season-best performances, four other teams could be in the hunt ... This race could be really interesting if it was a betting race.

Any team with scorers having "off-races" or exceptionally strong performances could go down or up accordingly ... Significant displacement could really effect the scoring in this race.

Individual Race ... This is a very good individual race as can be seen from the speed ratings below ...   16 runners have a seasonal speed rating of 180 or higher ... Ryan Sykes is the favorite, but he may have been affected by an injury at sectionals, and I do not know his current status.

 
Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating
1   Ryan Sykes            11   01-A    Horace Greeley       192.27   192      191
2   Owen Conley           12   02-A    Colonie              189.40   189      187
3   Thomas Isenovski      12   02-A    Saratoga             188.53   189      187
4   Ryan Maher            12   03-A    Auburn               187.53   188      185
5   Ryan Tuohy            12   01-A    North Rockland       187.00   187      184
6   Anthony Anatol        12   11-A    Ward Melville        186.30   186      184
7   Caleb Lantz           12   05-A    Rush-Henrietta       185.67   186      181
8   Joseph Kosier         11   02-A    Guilderland          185.57   186      182
9   Jake Gaudette         12   02-A    Shaker               184.07   184      183
10  Andrew Green          12   05-A    Fairport             182.70   183      180
11  Owen Gasper           12   03-A    Auburn               182.52   183      182
12  Carson Zuba           12   06-A    Lancaster            181.91   182      180
13  Rahlin Finch          12   05-A    Churchville          181.73   182      179
14  Andrew Senf           11   11-A    Ward Melville        181.10   181      179
15  Kevin Heller          10   03-A    FM                   180.73   181      180
16  Ross Wallace          12   08-A    Uniondale            179.70   180      179
17  Bryce Hammond         12   04-A    Corning              178.73   179      174
18  Leo Shostal           10   09-A    Warwick              178.73   179      178
19  Claudel Chery         12   01-A    North Rockland       178.70   179      178
20  Henry Nilsen          12   05-A    Webster Thomas       178.33   178      177
21  Bailey Bateman        12   05-A    Brighton             178.10   178      177
22  George Alessandria    11   05-A    Brighton             178.07   178      176
23  Joseph Price          12   01-A    Clarkstown S         177.00   177      174
24  Seamus Taylor         11   11-A    Northport            176.47   176      174
25  Aidan Piracci         12   11-A    Commack              176.30   176      175

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Manhasset            (08)      63        Burnt Hills            66
  2   Pittsford Mendon     (05)      69        Pittsford Mendon       71
  3   Burnt Hills          (02)      69        Manhasset              74
  4   Vestal               (04)     128        Vestal                102
  5   Cornwall             (09)     135        Cornwall              112
  6   Eastport-South Manor (11)     165        Hendrick Hudson       170
  7   Hendrick Hudson      (01)     177        Vernon-Verona-Sherr   192
  8   Hamburg              (06)     214        Eastport-South Manor  193
  9   Beekmantown          (07)     218        Beekmantown           213
  10  Vernon-Verona-Sherr  (03)     219        Hamburg               256
  11  Massena              (10)     263        Massena               259

Pre-Race Analysis ... Manhasset is the defending State Class B champion and is the slight favorite based on speed ratings ... Burnt Hills and Pittsford Mendon are close behind and should contend for the win.

Individual Race ... There are 17 Class B runners with season high speed ratings between 184 and 174 ... And the top 4 runners are separated by only 2.3 speed ratings points making this a potentially close race.

Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating 
1   Victor Delgado        12   01-B    Hen Hudson           183.54   184      182
2   Ethan Owen            11   02-B    Burnt Hills          183.37   183      181
3   Blake Sealy           12   08-B    Manhasset            182.77   183      183
4   Ian Frazer            12   08-B    Wantagh              181.23   181      178
5   Ryan Mehan            11   05-B    Pittsford Mendon     178.30   178      177
6   Zine Kantari          10   05-B    Pittsford Suth       178.27   178      173
7   JD Lloyd Mckenna      12   01-B    Pearl River          178.00   178      176
8   Dylan Walsh           12   11-B    Sayville             177.83   178      175
9   Jackson St. Lawrence  11   09-B    Goshen               177.57   178      176
10  Spencer Lee           11   11-B    Shoreham-Wading R    177.13   177      175
11  Henry Peterson        11   06-B    City Honors          176.63   177      176
12  Omer Ahmed            10   05-B    Pittsford Mendon     176.33   176      175
13  Luke Potter           11   09-B    Cornwall             176.00   176      173
14  Daniel Smith          12   08-B    Division Avenue      175.33   175      174
15  Nicolas Katsoulis     11   08-B    Manhasset            174.37   174      172
16  Lucas Aguilar         11   08-B    Division Avenue      173.91   174      164
17  Nicholas Dicaprio     11   11-B    Miller Place         173.90   174      170
18  Nathan Geroux         12   03-B    VVS                  172.87   173      171
19  Braeden Jackelow      12   08-B    Manhasset            172.63   173      170
20  Owen Tucker           10   05-B    Brockport            172.00   172      171
21  Tadios Eyasu          12   06-B    Applied Tech         170.30   170      166
22  Colin Lewis           10   09-B    Cornwall             169.53   170      168
23  Trevor Green          12   11-B    Rocky Point          169.53   170      169
24  Jackson Majewski      9    02-B    Burnt Hills          169.50   170      167

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      26        East Aurora            30
  2   Irvington            (01)      97        Irvington              98
  3   Mount Academy        (09)     137        Saranac               134
  4   Fonda-Fultonville    (02)     142        Mount Academy         139
  5   Saranac              (07)     143        Fonda-Fultonville     140
  6   South Lewis          (03)     148        South Lewis           151
  7   Potsdam              (10)     175        Chenango Valley       163
  8   Chenango Valley      (04)     179        Potsdam               176
  9   Williamson-Marion    (05)     199        Williamson-Marion     200
  10  Bayport-Blue Point   (11)     203        Bayport-Blue Point    223
  11  Wheatley             (08)     311        Wheatley              285
  		

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora is the defending Class C Champion and is the odds-on favorite again.

Irvington is the 2nd choice ... An even-up scramble for 3rd.

Individual Race ... Gage Feider and Evan Feider are the top 2 rated Class C runners entering the race (just like last year) ... Trent Thibault has been racing very nicely in recent races ... 7 runners have speed ratings between 184-180 ... Could be a good race.

Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Evan Feider           12   06-C    Alden                184.36   184      183
2   Gage Feider           12   06-C    Alden                184.10   184      183
3   Trent Thibault        12   04-C    Lansing              182.13   182      182
4   Jonah Sebolt          10   06-C    East Aurora          182.11   182      181
5   Caleb Feider          12   06-C    Alden                181.33   181      180
6   Max Fraser            10   06-C    East Aurora          180.25   180      178
7   Aaron Meyer           12   05-C    Williamson           179.67   180      177
8   Jake Woolbert         11   03-C    Cazenovia            174.57   175      170
9   Aidan Skuban          11   04-C    Susquehanna Valley   174.37   174      171
10  Matthew Jensen        10   01-C    Bronxville           172.80   173      170
11  Owen Shaffer-Sermini  12   09-C    Rondout Valley       172.77   173      171
12  Nate Deutsch          11   01-C    Bronxville           172.67   173      169
13  Ethan Gartlan         12   01-C    Irvington            171.70   172      169
14  Sean Dooley           11   01-C    Pleasantville        170.90   171      167
15  Zach Greene           12   08-C    Oyster Bay           170.87   171      170
16  Julian Gonzalez       12   01-C    Bronxville           170.03   170      166
17  Michael Ciripompa     12   05-C    Williamson           167.67   168      165
18  Noah Faherty          10   06-C    East Aurora          165.90   166      164
19  Jason Perkins         9    03-C    Phoenix              165.57   166      162
20  Luke Wright           12   06-C    East Aurora          165.46   165      164 

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Marcus Whitman       (05)      57        Port Jefferson         51
  2   Maple Grove          (06)      61        Maple Grove            68
  3   Port Jefferson       (11)      65        Marcus Whitman         92
  4   Beaver River         (03)     140        Delhi                 134
  5   Delhi                (04)     156        Beaver River          135
  6   Maple Hill           (02)     164        Maple Hill            153
  7   Haldane              (01)     174        Ticonderoga           174
  8   Ticonderoga          (07)     198        Friends Academy       188
  9   Friends Academy      (08)     199        Haldane               192
  10  Tupper Lake          (10)     201        Tupper Lake           206
  11  Tri-Valley           (09)     254        Tri-Valley            264

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Three teams are close in the projected team scores ... Marcus Whitman, Maple Grove and Port Jefferson (who is the defending State Class D champion).

Individual Race ... Ibrahim Ford finished 2nd at last year's State Class D race and is the favorite to win this race ... Several runners behind him in the list below are capable of popping a big performance.

Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Ibrahim Ford          12   05-D    Arkport              186.67   187      183
2   Danny Casatelli       12   03-D    Waterville           180.50   181      177
3   Desmond Hill          10   05-D    Marcus Whitman       179.33   179      175
4   Ethan Verbosky        12   06-D    Maple Grove          173.70   174      172
5   Andrew Edsall         11   04-D    Marathon             172.27   172      170
6   Simon Aguilar         12   05-D    Geneseo              172.10   172      166
7   Owen Powers           12   01-D    Haldane              171.47   171      169
8   Daniel McPherson      12   09-D    Pine Plains          170.57   171      170
9   Noah Klahn            11   06-D    West Valley          169.59   170      168
10  Jaden Lewis           11   04-D    Delhi                168.17   168      162
11  Derik Schoepflin      12   06-D    West Valley          168.14   168      168
12  Peyton Woodworth      10   05-D    Marcus Whitman       166.67   167      148
13  Colby Chase           11   07-D    Seton Catholic       166.00   166      164
14  Colin Kenney          12   05-D    Bloomfield-Naples    165.20   165      164
15  Grant Cornell         12   06-D    Franklinville        164.93   165      164
16  Mason Zehr            12   03-D    Beaver River         164.77   165      159

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Shenendehowa         (02)      44        Shenendehowa           47
  2   Northport            (11)      80        Northport              69
  3   Victor               (05)     110        Monroe-Woodbury       115
  4   Liverpool            (03)     110        Liverpool             123
  5   Ithaca               (04)     122        Ithaca                126
  6   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     142        Victor                130
  7   North Rockland       (01)     164        North Rockland        132
  8   Frontier             (06)     169        Syosset               174
  9   Syosset              (08)     171        Frontier              183
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Shenendehowa has been racing well this season and is the odds-on favorite to win the Class A title ... Shenedehowa is a nationally-ranked team ... They had to beat Bethlehem, Guilderland and Saratoga at the Section 2 State Qualifier.

Northport is the 2nd choice with Victor and Liverpool even-up in the projection.

Individual Race ... Repeating from previous years - This is a very good race in terms of quality ... 21 runners have achieved a speed rating of 130 or higher, and 10 runners have achieved a speed rating of 141 or higher.

Leyla Bhusri is currently the top-rated Class A runner ... she finished 3rd in last year's State Class A race.

This is an excellent individual race.

Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Leyla Bhusri          12   02-A    Shenendehowa         152.00   152       151
2   Sophia Chromczak      9    02-A    Bethlehem            145.80   146       145
3   Maggie McCormick      12   11-A    Bay Shore            144.47   144       143
4   Tsadia Bercuvitz      11   04-A    Ithaca               144.25   144       143
5   Delilah Pandori-Howell11   03-A    Nottingham           144.07   144       141
6   Melia Kupchanko       12   06-A    Williamsville N      143.86   144       143
7   Addison Vellekoop     12   02-A    Guilderland          143.83   144       141
8   Fiona King            9    11-A    Northport            142.67   143       136
9   Kyleen Brady          12   03-A    Auburn               141.80   142       140
10  Courtney Krawiecki    12   02-A    Shenendehowa         140.57   141       134
11  Riley Lynch           10   02-A    Shenendehowa         137.73   138       136
12  Olivia DiGaetano      12   11-A    Connetquot           137.63   138       134
13  Logan Kuhn            12   02-A    Bethlehem            136.00   136       134
14  Lexie Cole            11   11-A    Comsewogue           135.70   136       135
15  Adriana Pettinelli    10   01-A    Scarsdale            135.53   136       134
16  Zaria Hall            12   08-A    East Meadow          132.63   133       131
17  Ella Halbig           9    03-A    FM                   131.53   132       125 (not racing)
18  Raquelle Landa        12   02-A    Shenendehowa         131.23   131       128
19  Anna Chrapowitzky     11   02-A    Bethlehem            129.97   130       129
20  Kamryn Barton         12   03-A    Baldwinsville        129.63   130       128
21  Malina Santee         10   01-A    Horace Greeley       129.60   130       127
22  Mia Wickard           11   11-A    Northport            129.13   129       124
23  Erin Moleski          9    02-A    Saratoga             128.87   129       126

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   John Jay CR          (01)      73        John Jay CR            46
  2   South Jefferson      (03)      83        South Jefferson        74
  3   Cornwall             (09)      92        Sayville               90
  4   Burnt Hills          (02)      92        Cornwall               91
  5   Sayville             (11)      95        Burnt Hills           100
  6   Bethpage             (08)     142        Bethpage              165
  7   Pittsford Mendon     (05)     165        Pittsford Mendon      198
  8   Beekmantown          (07)     210        Beekmantown           207
  9   Vestal               (04)     219        Vestal                207
  10  Niagara-Wheat        (06)     229        Niagara-Wheat         217
  11  Massena              (10)     353        Massena               355

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... John Jay CR is the favorite based on current speed ratings ... But South Jefferson (3rd in last year's Class C race), Cornwall (2nd in last year's Class B race), Burnt Hills and Sayville are not that far behind.

Individual Race ... Sloan Wasserman is the top-rated Class B runner and she finished 2nd at last year's Class B race ... Maddie Laezza has been racing very well ... 13 Class B girls have a speed rating of 127 or higher.

Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Sloan Wasserman       12   01-B    John Jay CR          151.70   152       150
2   Maddie Laezza         11   11-B    Eastport-S Mano      149.40   149       147
3   Shannon Zugelder      12   06-B    Starpoint            137.27   137       133
4   Merrick Bathgate      10   05-B    Pittsford Suth       135.77   136       133
5   Bridget Dunn          12   01-B    Tappan Zee           133.85   134       127
6   Cali Gabrielson       10   11-B    Mount Sinai          132.78   133       118
7   Mallory Howe          11   05-B    Pittsford Suth       131.17   131       129
8   Sayla Fives           11   11-B    Harborfields         130.19   130       129
9   Joanna Kenney         12   08-B    North Shore          127.77   128       125
10  Addison Cyr           12   02-B    Burnt Hills          127.07   127       123
11  Dylan Friedman        12   09-B    New Paltz            127.03   127       125
12  Ellie Roberts         9    03-B    South Jefferson      126.77   127       124
13  Irene Sesnie          11   05-B    Honeoye FL           126.53   127       126
14  Julia Duzynski        12   01-B    Somers               123.94   124       118
15  Hannah Delaney        10   01-B    Nyack                122.77   123       119
16  Kiera Macintosh       11   02-B    Scotia-Glenville     121.97   122       119
17  Fayola Allison        12   08-B    South Side           121.77   122       119
18  Nora Miller           9    08-B    Manhasset            119.73   120       116
19  Maya Serai            9    01-B    John Jay CR          118.43   118       118 

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Saranac              (07)      83        Bronxville             77
  2   East Aurora          (06)      98        Saranac                86
  3   Bronxville           (01)     100        East Aurora           103
  4   Voorheesville        (02)     140        Voorheesville         121
  5   Rondout Valley       (09)     142        Rondout Valley        129
  6   Williamson-Marion    (05)     151        Williamson-Marion     150
  7   Skaneateles          (03)     167        Norwood-Norfolk       164
  8   Locust Valley        (08)     183        Skaneateles           174
  9   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     184        Bayport-Blue Point    188
  10  Bayport-Blue Point   (11)     186        Locust Valley         213
  11  Chenango Forks       (04)     247        Chenango Forks        265

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora is the defending Class C champion again ... But Saranac is the favorite based on speed ratings ... Saranac, East Aurora and Bronxville (2nd at last year's Class C race) are all capable winning this race.

Individual Race ... Emma Lewis and Hannah Governor are the top-rated Class C individuals.

Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  
1   Emma Lewis            11   06-C    Southwestern         137.23   137       132
2   Hannah Governor       12   05-C    Williamson           136.67   137       130
3   Avery Grant           10   02-C    Voorheesville        135.03   135       129 (not racing)
4   Mia Horgan            9    01-C    Bronxville           134.15   134       129
5   Amelia Pilon          8    03-C    Marcellus            132.13   132       119 (not racing)
6   Maeve Joyce           10   02-C    Holy Names           130.10   130       129
7   Savannah Schmidt      10   02-C    Voorheesville        127.13   127       122
8   Claire Delli Carpini  9    08-C    Cold Spring Har      120.73   121       120
9   Sienna Boulds         12   07-C    Saranac              118.30   118       116
10  Kailyn Houghton       12   06-C    East Aurora          117.03   117       110
11  Lucy Fleckenstein     12   03-C    Skaneateles          117.00   117       115
12  Danielle List         12   01-C    Albertus Magnus      116.33   116       111
13  Molly Myatt           10   03-C    Oneida               115.73   116       113
14  Reiley Pierce         11   06-C    East Aurora          115.09   115       112
15  Lillian Thompson      9    08-C    Locust Valley        114.17   114       110

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Harley-Allendale-Col (05)      74        Tri-Valley             62
  2   Beaver River         (03)      86        Harley-Allendale-Col   84
  3   Tri-Valley           (09)     102        Beaver River           93
  4   Maple Grove          (06)     139        Maple Hill            140
  5   Delhi                (04)     142        Delhi                 142
  6   Maple Hill           (02)     146        Friends Acad          152
  7   Friends Acad         (08)     152        Port Jefferson        160
  8   Port Jefferson       (11)     168        Lake Placid           160
  9   Lake Placid          (07)     169        Maple Grove           168
  10  Keio Academy         (01)     220        Keio Academy          191
  11  Brushton-Moira       (10)     280

		

Pre-Race Analysis ...  Like most year, this is an interesting race because a number of runners and teams have various inconsistencies that could significantly affect the team scoring.

Harley-Allendale-Columbia (HAC) is the favorite based on speed ratings with Beaver River close behind.

Individual Race ... Anna Furman is the defending Class D champion and she has been racing very well this season, and that makes her the solid favorite ... A group of girls are in contention for the runner-up stop including 2 Tully girls (Alex Dickson and Anna Congelli).

Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:                   Highest        Overall
                                                            Speed Rating     Rating  

1   Anna Furman           11   09-D    Tri-Valley           137.44   137       137
2   Violet Bliss          12   09-D    Pine Plains          124.17   124       121
3   Alex Dickson          10   03-D    Tully                124.00   124       122
4   Anna Congelli         12   03-D    Tully                122.77   123       120
5   Maya Churchman        8    05-D    Arkport/Canaseraga   122.60   123       120
6   Grace Carguello       11   03-D    Pulaski              120.97   121       118
7   Myah Keenan           10   03-D    Fabius-Pompey        119.70   120       117
8   Jessica Chapados      12   05-D    Harley-Allendale     118.00   118       117
9   Leila Fey             8    07-D    Lake Placid          117.23   117       115
10  Ariana Madeira        9    08-D    Friends Acad         117.10   117       117
11  Evelyn Rizzo          7    11-D    Pierson              113.70   114       104