• What good are Pre-Season Rankings?
•  ... Useful in gathering background information for the upcoming season
•  ... Topic of conversion during the summer
•  ... Not used for any rankings once the season starts
• Pre-Season Team Ranking Problems:
•  ... Based largely on last year's XC results
•  ... Some runners improve significantly or lose interest
•  ... Some runners quit or transfer
•  ... One runner can have a big impact on team score (plus or minus)
•  ... Unknowns - Requires some subjective "guessing" by me.
•  ... If data for 5 runners on a team was not available or guess-able, team likely excluded

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... I posted scores by individual class because some people are interested.

                   Pre-Season Projection - New York Girls Team Contenders - 2023


         ---------------------------------------
              Scores Using Top 29 Teams
         ---------------------------------------
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Saratoga Springs         70     (02-A )
    2    Bethlehem               150     (02-A )
    3    Fayetteville-Manlius    240     (03-A )
    4    Northport               270     (11-A )
    5    Sayville                280     (11-B )
    6    East Aurora             290     (06-C )
    7    Niskayuna               300     (02-A )
    8    Guilderland             325     (02-A )
    9    Corning                 330     (04-A )
    10   North Rockland          380     (01-A )
    11   Shenendehowa            385     (02-A )
    12   West Genesee            390     (03-A )
    13   Shaker                  400     (02-A )
    14   Burnt Hills             410     (02-B )
    15   Pittsford Sutherland    410     (05-B )
    16   Cicero-North Syracuse   430     (03-A )
    17   Fairport                440     (05-A )
    18   South Side              440     (08-B )
    19   Hunter College Campus   445     (PSAL )
    20   Pearl River             450     (01-B )
    21   Rush-Henrietta          455     (05-A )
    22   Auburn                  460     (03-A )
    23   Colonie                 465     (02-A )
    24   Ballston Spa            465     (02-A )
    25   Scotia-Glenville        470     (02-B )
    26   Somers                  470     (01-B )
    27   Cornwall                485     (09-B )
    28   Brighton                495     (05-A )
    29   Orchard Park            505     (06-A )

• Where did the scores come from?
•  ... 2022 Seasonal Speed Ratings
•  ... Manual manipulation based on Guessing
•  
• Uncertainty Factors
•  ... Ability of a team to "reload" after significant loses (graduation, transfer, etc)
•  ... Impact of new runners ... my term for this is "New Blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time XC runners, etc)
•  ... Will returning runners improve??
•  ... Team Depth ... Impact of Injury or Illness
•  ... Impact of runners who decide to quit

Note ... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team abilities in a combined race ... I included 29 teams to show some depth.

---------------------

In General ... Saratoga Springs is the top team overall in New York State entering the 2023 XC season ... Saratoga is the defending NXN National Champion again, and they return five runners from that NXN team ... Saratoga will be highly-ranked in the Pre-season National Rankings.

Bethlehem finished 2nd at both NY Federations & NXR New York ... Bethlehem returns 4 of their top 5 from NY Feds & NXN Nationals (where they finished 17th) ... They are the pre-season favorite for the 2nd NXN qualifying spot.

Fayetteville-Manlius is a perennial top National team having won more NXN Nationals titles than any other team, but Fayetteville-Manlius will need some overall improvement to challenge for a top two spot.

Not far behind are a group of team with possible potential ... Northport, Sayville, East Aurora and others ... Improvement at various positions and/or inclusion of new impactful runners (which does occurred) could elevate them to a challenging position.

---------------------

Fayetteville-Manlius, Saratoga and other teams have additional comments below in the Class A section ... Profiles for the Top Individual NY Girls are also available.

Additional comments and information are given below by Class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier.

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Saratoga Springs         60     (02-A )
    2    Bethlehem               110     (02-A )
    3    Fayetteville-Manlius    180     (03-A )
    4    Northport               215     (11-A )
    5    Niskayuna               235     (02-A )
    6    Guilderland             260     (02-A )
    7    Corning                 265     (04-A )
    8    North Rockland          300     (01-A )
    9    Shenendehowa            305     (02-A )
    10   West Genesee            310     (03-A )
    11   Shaker                  320     (02-A )
    12   Cicero-North Syracuse   350     (03-A )
    13   Fairport                360     (05-A )
    14   Rush-Henrietta          365     (05-A )
    15   Colonie                 375     (02-A )
    16   Ballston Spa            375     (02-A )
    17   Auburn                  375     (03-A )
    18   Brighton                410     (05-A )
    19   Orchard Park            420     (06-A )
    20   West Babylon            430     (11-A )
    21   East Meadow             435     (08-A )
    22   Port Washington         440     (08-A )
    23   Eastport-S Mano         445     (11-A )
    24   Liverpool               450     (03-A )    
		

Saratoga Springs is the top-ranked team in Class A and in NY State overall.

Saratoga is the defending champion for NXN Nationals, NXR New York, NY Federations and NY State Class A ... Saratoga returns 5 of 7 runners from those races ... they graduated the Wheeler twins (a major loss), but return 6 runners with highest speed ratings ranging from 147 to 113 (average of 129.5), and that makes them a contender at the national level entering the season ... Last year, Saratoga looked like the #1 team nationally (and were), while this year, they are one of several contenders nationally (but not #1 entering the season).

Bethlehem appears to be the 2nd-best team in NY entering the fall season ... The top five returning runners have highest speed ratings ranging from 130 to 114 (average of 119) ... Bethlehem returns 4 of their top 5 runners from NY Feds & NXN Nationals (where they finished 17th).

Fayetteville-Manlius appears to be the 3rd-best team in NY entering the fall season based on returning speed ratings ... FM graduated 2 of their top 5 from the Section 3 Champ race and NY State Class A race ... FM was 2nd to Saratoga at the State Class A race ... The top five returning runners have highest speed ratings ranging from 151 to 88 (average of 115) ... If the #4 and #5 positions improve, FM could become a contender.

Northport, Niskayuna, Guilderland and Corning are all solid teams with talent, but need some improvement at the lower scoring positions.

Some Class A Returning Runners by Team 

                            Highest   Overall
                           XC-Rating  Rating    XC Ratings by Race 2022
                           ---------  -------   -----------------------------------
Saratoga
  Emily Bush            12    147       143     142 135 143 145 147 145 145 137 143
  Anya Belisle          12    140       137     134 140 135 128 134 134 133 125 125
  Alycia Hart           12    138       134     137 116 133 138 114 137 127 99
  Heidi Berglund        9     124       119     119 108 124 119 109 122 113 101 91
  Natalie Wilding       9     115       110     104 102 115 113 115 114 107 87 68
  Katie Turner          11    113       111     113 110 110 88 67
  Alyssa Connors        11    96        88      69 86 96 83 72
  Tong Ang              9     94        92      91 88 94
  Theresa Prehn         12    89        84      89 79 67 40
  Reagan Owen           8     85        79      85 65 55
  Hailey Capello        11    83        82      83 82 73 62

Bethlehem
  Charlotte O'Meara     11    130       120     127 72 118 124 119 111 124 130 126 127 113 124
  Katherine Bannigan    11    119       112     113 94 109 102 118 117 117 118 118 119 99
  Olivia Deer           10    118       111     105 101 111 114 115 116 118 114 96
  Anna Chrapowitzky     9     116       108     104 97 109 109 113 115 116 106 114 98 92
  Liv Pachter           12    114       103     110 42 103 105 107 114 105
  Maeve Conway          12    99        95      93 94 99 88 95 82 74
  Alexandra Rivard      10    85        75      24 82 85 74 62
  Kaitlyn Harris        12    79        72      55 73 79 68 75 61 38

Fayetteville-Manlius
  Izzie Sullivan        11    151       146     146 138 144 137 151 148 138
  Maria Khalifeh        11    122       117     114 122 103 120 101 109
  Camille Ryan          10    119       117     113 118 112 119 116 94
  Ava Beecher           12    97        92      92 97 69 85 87 76
  Catherine Walters     11    88        84      70 87 88 74 70
  Charlotte Knutsen     12    83        80      75 83 73 81 66
  Bella Umina           10    69        62      44 69 59 55
  Grace Boice           12    62        62      62
  Claire McDonald       10    62        59      62 48

Northport
  Mia Wickard           9     124       118     99 119 124 121 99 98 120 118 120
  Finnley Wickard       9     120       118     120 117 118 89 115 106
  Emily Wickard         12    112       109     108 111 112 100 97 107 110 93 107
  Kayla Forsch          10    99        94      90 96 99 97 70 85 89 66
  Maggie Taylor         11    83        78      70 80 83 79 73 71 71 62 62
  Cate Coronato         11    72        65      38 72 67 54 71 39 59
  Karen Stehlik         11    65        59      52 65 55 53 58 46 45

Niskayuna
  Mary Kate Cestaro     12    126       116     114 91 119 120 118 126 118
  Allison Boler         11    111       107     106 101 111 107 109 103 97
  Callan Stabler        10    101       99      95 95 101 99 94 99
  Juliana Sciortino     12    98        90      79 87 98 88 86 77 67
  Megan Breslin         11    86        75      61 65 78 85 73 86 54
  Hannah Cestaro        10    60        58      59 50 60
  Fikir Kebbede         10    57        53      45 45 57 57

Guilderland
  Addison Vellekoop     10    120       116     110 117 118 114 120 113 109 106 94
  Kara Whiteside        9     100       83      62 82 76 86 100 78 84 70
  Braelyn Cornell       9     98        94      82 98 97 66 96 88 89 69
  Alexa Kosier          11    95        86      76 84 89 92 95 83 86 78 79 78
  Tara Iyer             8     90        80      75 72 84 56 90 78 79 63
  Rebecca Kleiber       12    88        78      75 72 83 88 55 78 69 63 59
  Lily Hubbard          8     86        83      83 78 86 80 86 65 74 70
  Elca Hubbard          12    83        72      60 59 83 81 79 72 69 60 60 53
  Violet McCutcheon     10    81        70      50 64 76 81 72 35
  Gwen Case             10    78        78      78 76 75 77

Corning
  Sarah Lawson          12    138       137     137 137 138 133 134 131 135 121 124 123
  Sadie Beres           12    108       99      91 95 99 97 101 108 82 102 95
  Lauren Roche          11    99        95      90 93 97 97 94 99 94 75 69
  Ella Grinnell         12    90        83      68 88 74 90 87 85 70 78 50
  Taylor Farrell        12    83        79      76 83 78 76 80 74 56 51 36
  Meghan McLaughlin     12    82        77      74 82 69 74 78 72 67 63 41
  Olivia Murch          12    81        67      43 58 81 70 64 45 60 -39
  Faith Tubbs           12    66        62      60 66 61 61 42 24

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    Sayville                130     (11-B )
    2    Burnt Hills             195     (02-B )
    3    Pittsford Sutherland    195     (05-B )
    4    South Side              215     (08-B )
    5    Pearl River             220     (01-B )
    6    Scotia-Glenville        235     (02-B )
    7    Somers                  235     (01-B )
    8    Cornwall                280     (09-B )
    9    Pittsford Mendon        300     (05-B )
    10   Mohonasen               305     (02-B )
    11   Tappan Zee              310     (01-B )
    12   North Shore             330     (08-B )
    13   Friends Academy         375     (08-B )
    14   Hauppauge               375     (11-B )
    15   Starpoint               390     (06-B )
    16   Mount Sinai             425     (11-B )
    17   Queensbury              430     (02-B )
    18   Batavia                 430     (05-B )
    19   Shoreham Wading River   440     (11-B )
    20   Westhampton Beach       450     (11-B )
    21   Union Endicott          470     (04-B )
    22   Garden City             470     (08-B )
    23   Manhasset               470     (08-B )
    24   Carey                   480     (08-B )
    25   Chittenango             490     (03-B )
    26   New Hartford            505     (03-B )
		

Sayville is the defending Class B champion and appears to be a solid favorite based on returning speed ratings ... Sayville finished 4th at NY Federations (behind Saratoga, Bethlehem and Northport) and 3rd at NXR New York (behind Saratoga and Bethlehem) ... They return 6 of 7 runners, including the top 4.

Burnt Hills finished 2nd to Scotia-Glenville at last year's Section 2 Champs ... Burnt Hills returns their top 8 runners from that race ... Scotia-Glenville returns 6 of their top 7 runners from that race , including their top 3 (same as the NY State B race where they finished 4th).

Pittsford Sutherland finished 6th at last year's State Class B race and returns all 7 runners.

South Side finished 5th in the Class B race last year and return 6 of 7 runners, including 4 scorers.

Pearl River lost to Somers at last year's Section 1 Champs (by 4 points), and return all 7 runners.

Class B could be quite interesting ... New and improved runners could be the factor to determine the finish positions at the State Class B race.

Some Class B Returning Runners by Team 

                            Highest   Overall
                           XC-Rating  Rating    XC Ratings by Race 2022
                           ---------  -------   -----------------------------------
Sayville
  Mullane Baumiller     12    124+      120     120 124 117 116 115 109 108 98
  Isabella Gerena       12    110       100     95 101 110 93 91 83 84 75
  Megan Lankowicz       10    107       103     94 107 106 96 98 92 59
  Marianna Duffy        9     103       100     97 101 103 93 94 88 73
  Carly Strining        11    82        77      82 73 59 75 62 41
  Carly Brady           11    81        75      59 78 77 79 81 59 45
  Catherine Simovich    9     71        69      71 68 61 70 57
  Madeline McKillop     12    67        64      67 43 66 2

Burnt Hills
  Mia Paolino           12    123       118     102 112 123 116 123 120 121 112
  Addison Cyr           10    108       102     102 99 91 108
  Quinn Stowell-Melle   10    90        90      90
  Adalyn Greer          9     86        83      78 86 74
  Delaney Casey         10    82        77      61 77 78 82
  Arden Heiner          9     78        75      58 77 78 74
  Mia Malizia           11    76        67      45 76 54 72 62 50
  Emma Bohall           11    64        61      63 49 58 64 31
  Avangeline Smith      11    60        58      59 51 60 56 33

Pittsford Sutherland
  Reid Smith            11    111       101     65 111 99 93 97 100
  Ella Rice             11    106       100     106 106 90 76 68 81 49
  Marianne Spyra        11    98        88      86 98 71 79 67 64 67
  Gabrielle Spyra       12    85        77      68 85 72 57 65 71 29
  Adriana Ochoa         12    83        78      75 83 69 65 73 51
  Karlee Angona         12    83        79      79 79 67 72 83 63 62
  Kimberly Ludwig       12    79        70      58 69 69 73 79 67 66
  Teah Silliman         12    60        51      20 60 49 31

South Side
  Claire Bohan          12    117       110     98 113 109 117 106 101 88 100 100
  Lana Jewett           11    103       95      86 90 100 103 85 91 89 99 91
  Fayola Allison        10    92        73      66 64 75 86 92 68 59 42 26
  Morgan McKenna        12    89        82      71 72 89 88 81 80 78 78 68
  Kate Palya            11    71        63      55 53 71 70 56 54 59 63 29
  Noelle Prince         12    69        64      61 64 69 62 55 40 40
  Emma Sitterly         12    61        51      59 61 38 -15 8 -31 4

Pearl River
  Madyson Moroney       12    126       123     126 121 112 119 121 110 122 116 104
  Claire O'Sullivan     12    96        89      94 86 80 63 80 96 66 68
  Rylee Mcginnis        12    87        80      82 73 87 73 75 71 38 43
  Kristen Gazzara       11    85        81      84 62 85 84 74 59 49
  Meabh McDonnell       11    83        80      79 76 83 83 69 67 45
  Maura Durcan          12    71        61      55 54 71 61 61 22 11
  Emily Dwyer           12    68        62      52 68 48 67 60 59 58
  Aislinn Fennell       10    66        65      63 66 51
  Cailyn Flynn          10    64        52      64 34 33 32 9
  Bridget Benn          12    63        52      31 63 37 49 47 33 9

Scotia-Glenville
  Kiera Macintosh       9     122       115     107 114 115 122 108 108 93
  Schuyler Long         11    106       103     103 101 101 79 106 95
  Briar Wells           9     90        84      74 77 88 90 79 85 85
  Sophia Allen          12    75        67      48 69 63 69 75 61 69 58
  Erin Smith            12    74        68      58 74 62 60 64 47
  Emily Miller          12    72        57      18 59 62 56 62 52 72 67 55 39
  Ashley Greene         12    70        60      49 56 61 70 59 50
  Karaline McCarthy     12    65        52      40 31 62 23 65 65 50 26
  Olivia Welch          9     61        55      40 57 44 56 61 61

Somers
  Julia Aquilino        11    105       98      94 105 84 99 84 86 84 96 83
  Mia Sandolo           11    101       94      91 101 81 94 75 84 76 90 81
  Jessica Masterson     12    92        86      85 84 82 85 74 74 92 83
  Julia Duzynski        10    89        84      69 89 82 89 79 77 73 80
  Brooke Fazio          11    69        64      63 69 32 57 29 62 68 55
  Mia Parisi            12    64        60      64 41 62 47 50 63 20
  Keira Cleary          11    59        37      -19 44 13 38 49 59
  Chelsea Lewitt        12    54        40      7 16 54 54 16

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    East Aurora              70     (06-C )
    2    Pleasantville           160     (01-C )
    3    Bronxville              170     (01-C )
    4    James O'Neill           180     (09-C )
    5    South Jefferson         185     (03-C )
    6    Adirondack              200     (03-C )
    7    Cazenovia               230     (03-C )
    8    Voorheesville           240     (02-C )
    9    Norwood-Norfolk         255     (10-C )
    10   Saranac                 275     (07-C )
    11   Skaneateles             280     (03-C )
    12   Newfane                 310     (06-C )
    13   Eden                    360     (06-C )
    14   Mount Academy           360     (09-C )
    15   Oneida                  370     (03-C )
    16   Southwestern            380     (06-C )
    17   Saranac Lake            390     (07-C )
    18   Schuylerville           410     (02-C )
    19   Westhill                420     (03-C )
    20   CBA-Syracuse            440     (03-C )
    21   Canton                  465     (10-C )
    22   Schalmont               475     (02-C )
    23   Port Jefferson          475     (11-C )
		

East Aurora handily won the State Class C race last year (by 40 points) ... they return 6 of 7 runners from that race, including all five scorers..

Pleasantville beat Bronxville by 8 points at last year's Section 1 Champ race ... Pleasantville then finished 2nd at last year's State Class C race, and return all 5 five scorers from the State Meet ... Bronxville returns 5 of 7 runners.

A group of other teams are not that far behind to contend for a 2nd or 3rd-place finish at the State Meet ... Voorheesville won last year's State Class D race, but move up the Class C this year (and graduated 3 of 5 scorers).

Lots of uncertainty in the projections for many teams.

Some Class C Returning Runners by Team  

                            Highest   Overall
                           XC-Rating  Rating    XC Ratings by Race 2022
                           ---------  -------   -----------------------------------
East Aurora
  Emilia O'Leary        11    130+      119     101 117 111 122 130 130
  Kailyn Houghton       10    116       111     101 104 115 116 111 113 109 107
  Catherine Schoeneman  11    106       101     85 101 104 105 100 106 101 97
  Lily Wangelin         9     98        77      60 65 70 75 90 94 98 75
  Evelyn Hoak           11    84        75      65 77 64 79 84 71 61
  Hope Owens            10    83        78      67 81 83 69 49 70 77
  Katherine Maloney     9     65        61      65 59 49 47 36

Pleasantville
  Clara Shingler        10    115       111     108 115 108 108 97 98 96
  Genevieve Agati       12    95        77      71 44 78 69 86 90 95 80
  Catherine O'Brien     9     89        86      84 79 87 89
  Camilla Browand       10    81        78      81 68 66 66 78
  Sara Agabob           10    65        65      64 65 61
  Alexis Busch          10    57        45      57 28 14 29
  Elizabeth Dean        10    53        44      14 53

Bronxville
  Lux Burgin            11    115       111     115 108 106 105 111 99 102 74
  Maddy Williams        11    102       85      55 65 87 101 100 102 78
  Meghan Curran         12    79        71      24 78 78 79 68 52
  Quinn Sheehan         10    72        60      17 55 72 70 44 55
  Charlotte Murray      10    69        61      53 65 58 69 41 59 42
  Charlotte Black       11    58        51      40 49 58 56 40 43 32
  Linnea Hentschel      11    40        33      30 20 40 12

James O'Neill
  Tessa Hendrickson     12    94        84      80 64 90 90 94 77 79 72
  Kiera Crowell         10    84        78      84 55 82 71 76 68 29
  Erin Smith            10    78        70      61 67 70 78 73 51
  Amelia Gash           11    77        62      62 57 46 65 77 55 53 35
  Kaelyn Mitroka        9     76        74      75 66 76 75 68 62 45
  Maryann Kick          11    68        60      51 49 65 41 68 55
  Alexandra Gash        10    65        57      47 59 46 61 65 52 14

South Jefferson
  Annabelle Renzi       9     109       102     85 99 109 107 103 102 94 74
  Carley Worden         10    99        92      72 90 99 94 94 91 79 71
  Reese Roberts         10    81        77      59 81 81 77 80 73 44
  Chloe Abbott          11    76        67      47 59 76 68 69 61 23
  Hannah Hathway        12    61        57      55 56 61 60 30 12
  Sophia Watts          12    55        42      15 36 55 38 9
  Brooke Perry          11    34        19      9 11 18 34 9

Adirondack
  Cora Hinsdill         10    122       109     103 106 105 122 107 114 119 109 101
  Eliana Pitts          10    90        87      83 89 83 86 90 79 78 63
  Kaylee Mathis         12    83        78      77 78 83 51 38
  Johannah Northrup     10    77        72      60 76 77 68 64 63 5
  Leigha Yaddow         10    47        32      47 32 33 6
  Rya Pond              10    46        36      5 46 40 33 25 26

Cazenovia
  Olivia Ruddy          11    101       94      92 86 95 101 80 92 100 81
  Maeve McGreevy        10    90        79      70 85 90 72 51 40 16
  Dinah Gifford         12    76        71      73 61 76 68 70 37 64 58
  Zoey Gagne            12    68        58      50 54 59 67 68 45 25
  Olivia Wong           12    57        47      34 29 57 48 38
  Haylee Stearns        10    54        44      37 34 54 48 37 12

Voorheesville
  Lindsey Wight         11    103       97      96 89 97 97 98 95 103 90 96
  Savannah Schmidt      9     82        81      80 82 80 70 70 81 79
  Alannah McCarthy      10    76        61      38 57 57 68 72 76 40 71
  Mary Genovesi         10    66        61      54 57 64 66 66 36 58
  Jenna Curl            10    43        39      28 43 38 32 23

 
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------
    1    South Lewis             140     (03-D )
    2    Clymer-Sherman          140     (06-D )
    3    Delhi                   140     (04-D )
    4    Maple Grove             160     (06-D )
    5    Beaver River            165     (03-D )
    6    Addison                 180     (05-D )
    7    Arkport/Canaseraga      210     (05-D )
    8    Pierson                 220     (11-D )
    9    Cato-Meridian           230     (03-D )
    10   Pulaski                 230     (03-D )
    11   Tully                   240     (03-D )
    12   Candor                  240     (04-D )
    13   Saratoga Catholic       245     (02-D )
    14   Honeoye Central         260     (05-D )
    15   Lake Placid             265     (07-D )
    16   Ticonderoga             270     (07-D )
    17   Maple Hill              270     (02-D )
		

South Lewis finished 3rd at last year's State Class D race (and they won the race in 2021) ... They return all 5 runners from the State Meet, including the top-rated Class D runner (Brynn Bernard) ... South Lewis had only 5 runners total at both sectionals and States, so that's a consideration.

Clymer-Sherman-Panama finished 4th at last year's State Class D race ... They return 5 of 7 runners from State Meet race, losing two scorers.

Delhi finished 5th at last year's State Class D race ... They return all 5 runners from the State Meet.

Maple Grove is a perennial  top team in Class D ... Clymer-Sherman-Panama beat them at Section 6 sectionals last year ... Maple Grove returns 6 of 7 runners, including 4 scorers.

Beaver River is one of several teams that might contend with South Lewis in Section 3 ... they return 4 of 5 scorers from sectionals.

Addison finished 2nd at last year's State Class D Meet (and in 2021) ... They graduated 3 of their top 5.

As normal, lots of uncertainty in projecting Class D teams (it's a guess at this point) ..... Talented new runners can have a major impact on team scoring, especially at the small school level.

Some Class D Returning Runners by Team  

                            Highest   Overall
                           XC-Rating  Rating    XC Ratings by Race 2021
                           ---------  -------   -----------------------------------
South Lewis
  Brynn Bernard         12    126       121     112 126 121 113 121 110 116 105
  Mallory Kraeger       12    96        89      87 85 88 96 88 88 90
  Grace Bailey          12    82        75      70 76 82 68 69 66 59 47
  Felicity Szucs        8     70        63      61 70 31 39 44
  Summer Valis          12    15        8       15 14 -7 -2

Clymer-Sherman
  Tess Flikkema         11    95        90      80 95 83 85 90 66
  Haley Odell           12    68        61      41 64 62 61 68 33
  Tayden Persons        12    64        53      24 39 64 60 40
  Brooke Warner         10    63        54      14 63 41 59 44
  Caitlyn Kriner        9     63        51      53 25 44 63 45
  Sol Martin-Lacayo     11    62        57      27 62 62 46
  Grace Cooke           9     44        44      42 44

Delhi
  Ellie Lees            12    111       106     93 107 106 104 108 103 111 106 64
  Gretel Hilson-Schneid 12    107       102     87 107 99 103 101 105 99 106 97 91
  Abi Tessier           11    71        58      57 42 52 64 60 66 71 54 48
  Lilly McGonigal       8     53        49      47 53 23 37

Maple Grove
  Allison Bohall        12    81        76      73 81 58 40
  Presley Haines        11    67        63      62 67 61 57 60 37 23
  Lily Elliss           8     64        63      62 64 61 62
  Lily Bohall           10    63        61      62 62 63 52 41 32
  Evalyn Fessel         9     58        56      47 54 58 58
  Mae Benedetto         10    34        21      22 34 5

Beaver River
  Greta Kuhl            9     89        85      79 89 82 83 87 74 73 54
  Grace Davis           11    86        79      86 72 71 73 25 58 67 43
  Hannah Moser          10    58        55      58 49 50 56 38
  Kaylee Halteman       12    56        51      51 44 46 56 37
  Anna Roggie           12    56        45      44 18 53 44 56 17 24

Addison
  Anna Lyons            10    90        85      83 90 80 65 75 72
  Sydney Ribble         11    67        56      47 67 42 37 41 39
  Julia Benton          12    59        54      52 59 52 28 51 34
  Brooke Vancise        11    54        46      40 54 33 27 23
  Caitlin Crooker       11    39        35      30 39 22
	

 

         Team                   Score    Federation
         ---------------------  -----    ----------
    1    St. Anthony's           155     (CHSAA)
    2    Hunter College Campus   155     (PSAL )
    3    Sacred Heart            195     (CHSAA)
    4    Conv Sacred Heart       205     (AIS  )
    5    Spence School           220     (AIS  )
    6    Trinity                 240     (AIS  )
    7    Sacred Heart-Buff       250     (CHSAA)
    8    St. Mary's              260     (CHSAA)
    9    Riverdale               265     (AIS  )
    10   Archbishop Molloy       270     (CHSAA)
    11   Stuyvesant              285     (PSA  )
    12   Mary Louis Academy      290     (CHSAA)
    13   Ethical Culture         295     (AIS  )
    14   Marymount               310     (AIS  )
    15   Notre Dame (Manh)       315     (CHSAA)
    16   Kellenberg              325     (CHSAA)
    17   Dalton School           330     (AIS  )
    18   Poly Prep               335     (AIS  )
    19   Notre Dame Aademy       350     (CHSAA)
    20   Brooklyn Tech           365     (PSAL )
    21   Bronx HS Sci            370     (PSAL )
		

St. Anthony's is the defending CHSAA Championship once again ... 3 of their top 7 having highest individual speed ratings graduated ... But they are fairly deep for this group classification.

Hunter College Campus finished 3rd at the PSAL Championship with only one senior scoring ... Their improved score in this projection is due to improved performance (during track) by Ella Cohen & Dylan McElhinney ..... Note - Team scores using just the CHSAA-PSAL-AIS teams above have St. Anthony's and Hunter College about even ... However, in the overall combined State team scoring at the top of the page, Hunter College was 19th in the projection (St. Anthony's was not in the top 30) due to the high predicted placement of the two runners (two runners having low team scores makes a big difference).

As normal, lots of uncertainty for most of the teams in the CHSAA-PSAL-AIS grouping entering a new season ... Just one or two new runners, transfers, etc. for any team will make a major difference.

Some CHSAA Returning Runners by Team 

                            Highest   Overall
                           XC-Rating  Rating    XC Ratings by Race 2021
                           ---------  -------   -----------------------------------
St. Anthony's
  Olivia Czoch          11    102       98      101 98 82 102 79 95 91 82 70
  Riley Griffith        12    95        90      91 89 95 76 85 68 57 50
  Annalise Olsen        11    79        77      74 79 77 77 78 68 66 30
  Elizabeth Guilfoyle   11    72        63      42 72 63 28 26
  Nicolette Scarpinato  11    64        61      64 64 54 38 51 45 16
  Katherine McConnachie 12    63        63      63
  Reilly Mcknley        11    49        44      33 49 41 10
  Erin Conneely         10    48        43      48 26 35

Hunter College Campus
  Ella Cohen            11    116++     108     105 87 111 116 98
  Dylan McElhinney      11    108++     107     108 106 81
  Rebecca Sonn-Lees     12    103       101     103 100 96 89
  Jasper Newton         12    63        54      46 47 63 9
  Emma Baltrusaitis     11    56        51      56 34 31 52 39

Sacred Heart
  Maeve Going           10    115       112     109 115 108 103
  Lucy Brucella         11    97        94      83 96 97 95 94 85 91 62
  Anna Kofod            11    73        68      60 70 73 67 62 59 36 42
  Annie Palmer          12    63        55      52 63 26 45 51 31
  Nicole Wilder         11    55        49      21 55 46

Conv Sacred Heart
  Natalie Murphy        10    104       99      100 87 103 104 96 96 95 92 83
  Elise Keefe           11    94        86      80 94 90 55 68 60 52
  Ava Lillis            12    79        79      79
  Eva Alicea            12    76        70      59 76 76 67 46 62 57 54
  Elizabeth Matheson    10    67        61      55 66 66 67 44 48 27 40
  Andrea Molina         12    43        36      29 43 42 23 16 10 14
  Emily Castle          10    41        26      33 41 24 16

Spence School
  Eliana Levey          10    94        88      66 89 94 94 89 83 83 88
  Pippa Carmel          10    94        87      62 92 94 86 75 80 81
  Lucy McAllister-Nevins11    74        74      74
  Lily Nelson           10    57        47      25 52 57 42 30 29 24
  Alexandra Levey       10    57        51      57 47 19 34 38 46