General Comment ... Often the speed ratings for the top finishers at Foot Locker Nationals may be a bit higher than those shown in table above ... To finish in top places at this National race (Champs Sports, Eastbay, Foot Locker) typically requires exceptional performances, usually season-best performances ... Foot Locker is unique because it has a small field of select runners coming to the race expecting to run fast (knowing they have to run fast to place well) ... Top national competition on a course in good condition under good weather conditions yields top performances (often season-best performances).
Overall, I think a bunch of guys could win this race or finish top three.
Last week's Nike Team Nationals at Glendoveer Golf Course in Portland, Oregon yielded some very high speed ratings for some runners competing in this Champ Sports Nationals race ... 5 boys had speed ratings of 200 or 201 ... But if the race goes out fast with this quality of competition, some runners may post even better speed ratings.
Balboa Park is different than the Glendoveer course:
- Glendoveer was in very good condition last week, and was fast for Glendoveer (and could have been faster without the cold wind) ... Based on inherent speed at Balboa Park Nationals in recent years, the Balboa Park course may be in the range 12-21 seconds slower than Glendoveer 2022 depending on conditions.
- Speed ratings are determined by time differences between runners of known ability
- Balboa Park has a "Separation section" (the big uphill & downhill run twice ... especially the 2nd time)
- Glendoveer has nothing comparable to the "Separation section" at Balboa which frequently separates the top runners by significant margins
- Separation at the top end increases the time differences between runners which affects the speed ratings ... and yields higher values at the top
Some Quick Notes about NXN Nationals 2022:
- 43 runners were less than one minute behind winner Aaron Sahlman (204 speed rating)
- 10 runners were less than 14 seconds behind winner Aaron Sahlman
- Using the 8 California teams that raced at both CA States & NXN Nationals (4 boys + 4 girls teams and 10 Individual runners), the median time difference between Woodward Park (at States) and Glendoveer was about 27 seconds faster at Woodward Park (when outliers were excluded).
- My race adjustment for the CA State Meet was 87 seconds (for both boys and girls) for calculating the speed ratings ... My race adjustment for NXN Nationals was 63 seconds (for both boys and girls) for calculating the speed ratings ... meaning a difference of 24 seconds ... the 3 second difference (or one speed rating point) was due to factoring in the all the other runners at NXN besides just the CA runners.
Eight Boys in this year's Champs Sports field competed at NXN Nationals Last Week & Two at RunningLane 2022 Last Week:
NXN Nat NXN National
Place Speed Rating
Kole MATHISON 4 200.50 201 (season best)
Simeon BIRNBAUM 6 200.50 201 (season best)
Noah BREKER 7 200.37 200 (season best)
Benne ANDERSON 9 199.93 200 (season best)
Hunter JONES 10 199.80 200 (3rd best to 201.73)
Connor ACKLEY 18 192.03 192 (4th best to 196.01)
Ayden GRANADOS 59 181.27 181 (3rd best to 190.18)
Marcelo PARRA 89 176.80 177 (5th best to 189.53)
RunningLane RunningLane
Place Speed Rating
Brian DiCola 4 192.60 193 (2nd best to 198.93)
Nathan Atchue 346 182.80 183 (3rd best to 193.39)
Some Individual Runner Comments
Hunter Jones ... Hunter Jones, the Champs Sports Midwest winner, was undefeated in 2022 before finishing 10th at NXN Nationals ... he has 3 speed ratings of 200 or above and other good seasonal performances ... Hunter Jones finished 33rd at Eastbay 2021, so he has experience on the Balboa Park course ... Definitely one of the favorites to win.
Simeon Birnbaum ... Simeon Birnbaum finished 6th at NXN Nationals last week (201 speed rating) with the same final time as Kole Mathison ... Simeon is another favorite for the win.
Kole Mathison ... Kole Mathison finished 4th at NXN Nationals last week (201 speed rating) with the same final time as Simeon Birnbaum ... Kole is another favorite for the win ... Kole finished 5th at Eastbay Nationals 2021 and is the top returning runner from last year, so he has experience on the Balboa Park course.
Benne Anderson ... Benne Anderson finished 9th at NXN Nationals last week (200 speed rating) ... He has had an excellent XC season and is another contender for the win.
Rocky Hansen ... Rocky Hansen is the Champs Sports South region winner ... He is undefeated this season, and his performances indicate he is a definite contender for the win.
Noah Breker ... Noah Breker finished 7th at NXN Nationals last week (200 speed rating) ... He is another contender for the win.
Drew Griffith ... Drew Griffith is the Champs Sports Northeast region winner ... and his performances indicate he is a definite contender for the win.
Connor Ackley ... Connor Ackley finished 18th at NXN Nationals last week ... He had a 199 speed rating at NXR Midwest, and that make him a contender.
Samuel Burgess ... Samuel Burgess finished 2nd at Champs Sports Northeast (196 speed rating) ... He finished 29th at Eastbay 2021, so he has experience on the Balboa Park course ... he is another contender.
Brian DiCola ... Brian DiCola finish 4th at the RunningLane Championship last week (on a slow and sloppy course in Alabama) ... He won the PA State Championship with a 199 speed rating, and that makes him a contender.
Kevin Sanchez ... Kevib Sanchez finished 11th at Eastbay 2021 and is the #2 returning runner from last year, so he has experience on the Balboa Park course.
... 30 of the 40 Boys entered
at Champs Sports 2022 having at least one speed rating of 190 or higher this season
... and that makes the race competitive and interesting
.