NOTE ... I consider these Projections to be similar to "Seed Times" for a track & field meet.

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      55        Fayetteville-Manlius   42
  2   Shenendehowa         (02)      56        Shenendehowa           62
  3   Northport            (11)     104        Northport             100
  4   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     130        Ithaca                109
  5   Fairport             (05)     137        Monroe-Woodbury       131
  6   North Rockland       (01)     137        North Rockland        149
  7   Syosset              (08)     142        Syosset               167
  8   Ithaca               (04)     157        Fairport              191
  9   Lancaster            (06)     201        Lancaster             217

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... This is a good quality team race ... Like many championship races, major factors in the outcome could be the course itself, the course conditions and the weather ... As I write this (on Wednesday), the weather on Saturday for the meet is expected to be sunny with temperatures in the upper teens to low 20s and winds at 5-9 mph ... Brrrr cold ... I expect the course will be frozen.

NY MileSplit took the speed ratings from all sectional races and scored-out the State Meet races (https://ny.milesplit.com/articles/270807-completed-new-york-sectional-speed-rating-merge) ... In the boy's Class A race, Shenedehowa outscores Fayetteville-Manlius by 53 to 56 ...  Using my Overall Speed Ratings (used for my weekly ranking lists), FM outscores Shenendehowa by a score of 55 to 56 ... My Overall ratings are a combination of highest seasonal rating, average seasonal rating (lowest sometimes excluded), median rating, average of last three races and/or average of last two races, and highest of last two and/or three races.

Computer simulations also predict a median score of 55 to 56 with FM winning, however, both teams win roughly the same number of races over 10,000 race simulations ... Obvious - Too Close to Call ... Makes it interesting.

Individual Race ... This is a good individual race ... As can be seen from the overall seasonal speed ratings below, a bunch of guys are in contention for the top spots ... FM's Sam Otis and Peyton Geehrer raced well at sectionals last week, and are the two favorites for the win ... The top 10 guys all have overall speed ratings in 180s.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Sam Otis              12   03-A    FM                     188
2   Peyton Geehrer        11   03-A    FM                     188
3   Behailu Bekele-Arcuri 12   09-A    Warwick                183
4   Geoff Howles          12   03-A    FM                     183
5   Thomas Ragone         12   02-A    Niskayuna              183
6   Michael Danzi         12   11-A    Smithtown              182
7   Daniel Shephard       12   01-A    North Rockland         181
8   Sean O'Brien          12   02-A    Guilderland            181
9   Michael Silveri       11   11-A    EastportSManor         180
10  Kaelen Ruder          11   05-A    Fairport               180
11  Nick Bauman           12   05-A    Irondequoit            179
12  Justin DePinto        12   08-A    Syosset                177
13  Jack Parsons          12   02-A    Guilderland            177
14  Daniel Caso           12   01-A    Arlington              176
15  Micah Tindale         10   02-A    Guilderland            176
16  Nicolas Ferretti      12   03-A    Rome                   176
17  Matt Bartolotta       12   03-A    West Genesee           176
18  Ryan Shanahan         12   02-A    Shenendehowa           176
19  Julian Franjieh       10   02-A    Niskayuna              176
20  Nick Logan            12   02-A    Queensbury             176
21  Francisco Mendonca    11   02-A    Shaker                 176
22  Bryan Spence          12   02-A    Shenendehowa           176
23  Nathaniel Sletten     11   03-A    Rome                   175
24  Thomas Fodor          12   11-A    Northport              175
25  Nathan Brimhall       10   02-A    Shenendehowa           175

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      43        Burnt Hills            44
  2   Pittsford Mendon     (05)      56        Pittsford Mendon       49
  3   Mount Academy        (09)      69        Mount Academy          62
  4   East Aurora          (06)     101        East Aurora           100
  5   Westhampton Beach    (11)     114        Westhampton Beach     126
  6   Manhasset            (08)     155        Manhasset             133
  7   Pearl River          (01)     165        Pearl River           160
  8   Jamesville Dewitt    (03)     265        Owego                 241
  9   Owego                (04)     269        Jamesville-Dewitt     264
  10  Franklin Academy     (10)     298        Franklin Academy      312
  11  Beekmantown          (07)     329        Beekmantown           337

Pre-Race Analysis ... Burnt Hills won easily last year (scoring only 22 points), but their top four finishers graduated ... Burnt Hills is still the favorite this year, but Pittsford Mendon and Mount Academy are not that far behind and could make this interesting.

Individual Race ... Sam Lawler has been racing well all season and is the top-rated Class B runner which makes him the favorite for the win ... But Tom Cirrito, Ryan Allison and Josh Stone are close behind and serious contenders ... and a group of talented guys are not far behind the top four.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Sam Lawler            12   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       187
2   Tom Cirrito           12   11-B    Miller Place           183
3   Ryan Allison          10   02-B    Burnt Hills            183
4   Josh Stone            12   04-B    Windsor                181
5   Gavin Ehlers          10   11-B    Westhampton            180
6   Jason Linzer          12   08-B    Seaford                179
7   David Metacarpa       12   02-B    Burnt Hills            177
8   Steve Bello           12   09-B    Monticello             177
9   Brody Jones           10   06-B    Pioneer                175
10  Vinny Pagliaccio      11   06-B    West Seneca East       175
11  Will Marchant         12   02-B    Burnt Hills            174
12  Jerad Hediger         12   06-B    Pioneer                174
13  Nick Berg             12   03-B    ESM                    174
14  Stephen Perillo-Sul   12   09-B    Goshen                 174
15  Evan Waterton         10   09-B    Monticello             173
16  Travis Meier          12   09-B    Mount Academy          172
17  Colby Schenkel        10   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       172
18  Alex Hillyard         12   06-B    East Aurora            171
19  Ike Blough            10   09-B    Mount Academy          171
20  Riley Brutvan         11   09-B    New Paltz              171
21  Brandon Mancroni      12   09-B    Monticello             170
22  David Durdaller       12   08-B    Hewlett                170
23  Matthew Rounds        9    02-B    Burnt Hills            170

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Saranac Lake         (07)      42        Saranac Lake           28
  2   CBA-Syracuse         (03)      85        CBA-Syracuse           89
  3   Briarcliff           (01)     113        Port Jefferson        111
  4   Port Jefferson       (11)     115        Briarcliff            111
  5   Southwestern         (06)     127        Southwestern          119
  6   James O'Neill        (09)     156        James I. O'Neill      149
  7   Watkins Glen         (04)     168        Watkins Glen          191
  8   Addison              (05)     197        Norwood Norfolk       200
  9   Fonda-Fultonville    (02)     205        Fonda-Fultonville     222
  10  Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     229        Oyster Bay            225
  11  Oyster Bay           (08)     240        Addison               246
  		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Saranac Lake won the Class C title last year by 52 points, and are the solid favorite to repeat.

CBA-Syracuse has been racing well this season and appears to be a solid #2 team ... The next three spots are close and could go any way.

Individual Race ... A bunch of runners are in contention to win this race ... I think at least top six from the list below are contenders for the win ... But the favorites for the win are Caleb Bender and Gitch Hayes.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Caleb Bender          11   03-C    Skaneateles            180
2   Gitch Hayes           10   02-C    LaSalle                178
3   Tyler Fauvelle        12   03-C    Adirondack             177
4   Kyle Urban            10   06-C    Alden                  175
5   James Catania         11   07-C    Saranac Lake           174
6   Gabe Planty           12   04-C    Watkins Glen           172
7   Brett Russell         12   06-C    Springville            171
8   Peter Fogarty         11   07-C    Saranac Lake           171
9   Andrew Fogarty        11   07-C    Saranac Lake           169
10  Harry Marson          11   09-C    James O'Neill          169
11  Aidan Lynch           12   01-C    Pleasantville          169
12  Jonny Sherwood        10   04-C    Newark Valley          168
13  Jared Hecht           12   06-C    Springville            167
14  Aidan Gemme           11   01-C    Hastings               167
15  Mark Rogers           12   01-C    Briarcliff             167
16  Noah Brightman        10   01-C    Pawling                167
17  Michael McMahon       10   03-C    CBA                    167
18  Cameron Eastland      11   06-C    Alden                  167
19  Dean Godios           12   06-C    Depew                  166
20  Brian Veit            11   11-C    Port Jefferson         166
21  Dillon Plantz         12   03-C    Hannibal               166
22  Grant Samara          11   11-C    Port Jefferson         165

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River         (03)      31        Beaver River           26
  2   Delhi                (04)      78        Delhi                  76
  3   Maple Grove          (06)      78        Alfred/Arkport/Can     81
  4   Alfred/Arkport/Can   (05)      88        Maple Grove           102
  5   Moriah/Boquet Valley (07)     148        Moriah/Boquet Valley  126
  6   Lake George          (02)     148        Lake George           151
  7   Shelter Island       (11)     173        Shelter Island        155
  8   Haldane              (01)     200        Haldane               204
  9   S.S. Seward          (09)     289        S.S. Seward           278
  10  Brushton Moira       (10)     294        Brushton Moira        297
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the odds-on favorite to win the Class D race ... Beaver River handily won the Class D race last year with Maple Grove finishing 2nd (score of 32 to 87).

Maple Grove and Delhi are a toss-up to finish 2nd ... and the Alfred/Arkport/Can team is well within striking distance of the runner-up spot.

Individual Race ... Kal Lewis (Shelter Island) has won the Class D race the last two years (Colton Kempney was 2nd last year as a freshman) ... Colton Kempney has been racing very well and is the top-rated Class D runner entering States ... This could be a very good race between the top two.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Colton Kempney        10   03-D    Beaver River           180
2   Kal Lewis             12   11-D    Shelter Island         175
3   Cory Demo             11   03-D    Beaver River           174
4   Ronan Mcdonald        12   06-D    Randolph               173
5   Andrew Drescher       12   02-D    Duanesburg             173
6   Josiah Evan           12   03-D    Beaver River           170
7   Jonathon Hadley       11   04-D    Delhi                  168
8   Derek McIntire        11   05-D    Oakfield-Alabama       167
9   Jake Glicksman        12   07-D    Seton Catholic         166
10  Jeremiah Ford         12   05-D    Arkport                166
11  Mack Brewington       11   05-D    Marion                 163
12  Zack Hall             11   05-D    Oakfield-Alabama       161
13  Andrew Deming         12   05-D    Red Creek              161
14  Thomas Kressly        12   05-D    Hammondsport           160
15  Dylan Williams        12   03-D    Waterville             160
16  Peter Auer            12   06-D    Maple Grove            159
17  Logan VanBuren        12   07-D    Moriah/Boquet Val      159
18  Steven Gough          10   04-D    Elmira Notre Dame      158
19  Ty Saleman            12   04-D    Delhi                  157
20  Ben Skalny            11   05-D    Notre Dame-Batavia     157
21  Diego Aguirre         11   04-D    Delhi                  156

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Saratoga             (02)      38        Fayetteville-Manlius   34
  2   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      42        Saratoga               40
  3   North Rockland       (01)      93        North Rockland         86
  4   Monroe-Woodbury      (09)     118        Corning               139
  5   Corning              (04)     144        Monroe-Woodbury       146
  6   Ward Melville        (11)     157        Ward Melville         147
  7   Brighton             (05)     175        Syosset               159
  8   Syosset              (08)     200        Brighton              201
  9   Orchard Park         (06)     204        Orchard Park          222

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Like last year, this race is a handicapping nightmare with respect to Saratoga and Fayetteville-Manlius.

Saratoga presents a handicapping conundrum (confusing, difficult problem) ... Saratoga raced remarkable well at sectionals ... their speed ratings were 147, 140, 134, 132, 130, 128, and 126 ... These speed ratings make them a national contender to win NXN and a solid favorite to win this race ..... In recent years, Saratoga has achieved noticeably higher speed ratings at their home course of Saratoga Park compared to other venues ... So relating their sectional speed ratings to SUNY Plattsburgh this Saturday where the course is likely to be frozen at temperatures of 23 deg F (or colder) requires guessing.

I received a number of emails from coaches and writers from around the nation doubting those high speed ratings achieved by Saratoga at sectionals ... My NY bias was off-the-charts according to several, and that made me sad, but the numbers are correct ... The question as a handicapper is "How do you use those numbers?".

NY MileSplit took the speed ratings from all sectionals and scored-out the State Meet races (https://ny.milesplit.com/articles/270807-completed-new-york-sectional-speed-rating-merge) ... In the girl's Class A race, Saratoga beat FM by a score of 32 to 48 using just the sectional ratings ... Using my Overall Speed Ratings (used for my weekly ranking lists), Saratoga would beat FM by a score of 35 to 44 ... My Overall ratings are a combination of highest seasonal rating, average seasonal rating (lowest sometimes excluded), median rating, average of last three races and/or average of last two races, and highest of last two and/or three races.

The last race is obviously important from a handicapping perspective ... Saratoga raced at Saratoga Park (SPAC) and FM at VVS ... The VVS course is harder, slower and longer than Saratoga Park ... The inherent speed difference in these two courses at sectionals for the girls was 69 seconds (VVS was 69 seconds slower than Saratoga Park) ... Slower more difficult courses commonly spread runners out more than fast, flat courses which has an effect on the speed ratings ... Team compression can be effected (time difference between 1st and 5th team runner) ... Taking that into consideration and using all seasonal speed ratings via computer simulation, the predicted State Meet score becomes 38 to 42 with Saratoga winning (median of 10,000 simulated races) ... And 4 points can be just one runner having a really good or bad day in a race with only nine teams!

Individual Race ... Repeating from previous years - This is a great race in terms of quality ... Katelyn Tuohy (North Rockland) and Claire Walters (FM) are currently the top two runners in the nation, and Karrie Baloga (Cornwall) is also highly ranked nationally ... 29 runners have an overall speed rating of 125 or higher.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering States:
1   Katelyn Tuohy         12   01-A    North Rockland         167
2   Claire Walters        12   03-A    FM                     158
3   Karrie Baloga         9    09-A    Cornwall               152
4   Jenna Schulz          12   03-A    Liverpool              144
5   Ella Kurto            10   02-A    Saratoga               144
6   Hannah Kaercher       9    03-A    FM                     138
7   Faith Demars          12   02-A    Ballston Spa           137
8   Jada Dennis           12   02-A    Shenendehowa           136
9   Sheridan Wheeler      9    02-A    Saratoga               136
10  Phoebe White          12   03-A    FM                     135
11  Leonni Griffin        8    02-A    Shaker                 135
12  Tori Mariano          12   02-A    Shaker                 134
13  Rylee Davis           9    02-A    Bethlehem              131
14  Sydney Nowicki        11   06-A    Lockport               131
15  McKinley Wheeler      9    02-A    Saratoga               131
16  Haleigh Morales       12   01-A    North Rockland         129
17  Anya Belisle          8    02-A    Saratoga               129
18  Grace Kaercher        11   03-A    FM                     128
19  Mary Hennelly         12   01-A    Suffern                128
20  Candace Tytler        10   05-A    Irondequoit            127
21  Gillian Roeder        12   02-A    Bethlehem              127
22  Catherine Mongan      10   02-A    Saratoga               127
23  Emily Toth-Ratazzi    10   03-A    Rome                   127
24  Kate Putman           9    03-A    CNS                    127
25  Fiona McLoughlin      12   11-A    Commack                126
26  Jade Dennis           12   02-A    Shenendehowa           126
27  Katie Turk            11   01-A    Carmel                 125
28  Liyat Kebbede         10   02-A    Niskayuna              125
29  Evelyn Gonzalez-Valle 12   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury        125
30  McKenzie Hart         9    02-A    Saratoga               124
31  Emily Bush            8    02-A    Saratoga               123

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      49        East Aurora            50
  2   Pearl River          (01)      73        Pearl River            76
  3   Burnt Hills          (02)      74        Burnt Hills            98
  4   North Shore          (08)     100        North Shore           100
  5   Pittsford Sutherland (05)     114        Goshen                118
  6   Goshen               (09)     130        Pittsford Sutherland  136
  7   New Hartford         (03)     201        East Hampton          188
  8   East Hampton         (11)     225        New Hartford          198
  9   Maine-Endwell        (04)     229        Maine Endwell         222
  10  Canton               (10)     253        Canton                255
  11  Beekmantown          (07)     336        Beekmantown           334
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Last year's Class B champion (Cornwall) was moved up to Class A this year ... Perennial power East Aurora is the favorite to win the Class B race.

Pearl River and Burnt Hills are a toss-up for the next two spots with North Shore not far behind

Individual Race ... Sarah Connelly won this race last year and is the favorite to win again ... Megan McLaughlin has been improving and Olivia Morganti is capable of a very good performance.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering States:
1   Sarah Connelly        12   11-B    Mount Sinai            141
2   Megan McLaughlin      10   06-B    East Aurora            132
3   Olivia Morganti       12   03-B    CBA-Syracuse           128
4   Kate Sherman          11   02-B    Mohonasen              123
5   Karis Ertel           12   06-B    East Aurora            123
6   Kayla Schramm         10   09-B    Goshen                 122
7   Mady Moroney          8    01-B    Pearl River            122
8   Una Boylan            10   01-B    Pearl River            122
9   Mallory Grubb         10   06-B    Amherst                119
10  Carly Woelfel         12   08-B    South Side             119
11  Mia Paolino           8    02-B    Burnt Hills            119
12  Maddy Mack            10   03-B    Oneida                 117
13  Stephanie James       9    02-B    Scotia-Glenville       116
14  Lindsey Stokes        11   04-B    Maine-Endwell          116
15  Nicole Garcia         12   11-B    Shoreham Wading R      115
16  Emily Berg            10   02-B    Burnt Hills            114
17  Angeline Caamano      11   08-B    Manhasset              114
18  Nicole Schneider      12   08-B    North Shore            113
19  Elsa Neubauer         12   01-B    Brewster               113
20  Jackie Amato          11   11-B    Westhampton            113

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Greenwich            (02)      43        Camden                 75
  2   Camden               (03)     103        Greenwich              77
  3   Newfane              (06)     115        Newfane               104
  4   Dobbs Ferry          (01)     126        Dobbs Ferry           110
  5   James O'Neill        (09)     148        James I. O'Neill      146
  6   Addison              (05)     162        Lansing               155
  7   Mattituck            (11)     168        Mattituck             185
  8   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     188        Norwood Norfolk       192
  9   Lansing              (04)     190        Addison               196
  10  Saranac              (07)     199        Saranac               211
  11  Oyster Bay           (08)     255        Oyster Bay            244 
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Greenwich won the State Class C race last year by nearly 70 points and are the odds-on favorite to win again.

Camden is a narrow choice over Newfane for the #2 spot (it may be closer than the numbers above indicate).

Individual Race ... This is a really good individual race with a number of girls in contention ... The four Section 3 girls listed below top the Class C ranking list based on overall performance ... However, Ava Jolley beat the three South Lewis girls (Hannah Ielfield, Lexi Bernard and Brynn Bernard) at the Section 1 Coaches Invitational at Bowdoin Park and could be considered a slight favorite ... Elizabeth Lucason is capable of winning with a top performance ... and Madelyn Dinneen is the improving runner who just might surprise everybody.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering States:
1   Hannah Ielfield       11   03-C    South Lewis            134
2   Lexi Bernard          10   03-C    South Lewis            132
3   Brynn Bernard         8    03-C    South Lewis            132
4   Elizabeth Lucason     10   03-C    Camden                 132
5   Ava Jolley            11   01-C    North Salem            131
6   Brynne Wright         12   02-C    Greenwich              128
7   Madelyn Dinneen       10   10-C    Norwood-Norfolk        127
8   Rachael Woodruff      12   07-C    Saranac                124
9   Tess Fitzmaurice      11   02-C    Greenville             124
10  Nina Sgambelluri      10   02-C    Greenwich              122
11  Alexa Doe             10   03-C    South Jefferson        120
12  Delaney Brewer        12   03-C    VVS                    117
13  Pipher Reid           10   04-C    Chenango Forks         117
14  Madison Luke          10   03-C    Clinton                116
15  Emily Brown           12   06-C    Fredonia               114
16  Lauren Wagner         10   06-C    Akron                  113
17  Phoebe Ward           12   01-C    Dobbs Ferry            113
18  Lily Potthast         12   07-C    Ausable Valley         113
19  Sonya Krezmien        12   06-C    Springville            112
20  Leah Richardson       9    09-C    James O'Neill          111
21  Faith Skowvron        9    05-C    Addison                110
22  Sheridan Talada       12   04-C    Waverly                110
23  Emily Miller          12   04-C    Dryden                 108
24  Quinn Collins         12   02-C    Greenwich              108
25  Joddie Decker         11   05-C    Penn Yan               108
26  Brooke Wright         12   02-C    Greenwich              107

 

                                 Projected                        Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Maple Grove          (06)      55        Delhi                  50
  2   Delhi                (04)      56        Maple Grove            55
  3   Tully                (03)      58        Tully                  57
  4   Red Creek            (05)     116        Berlin                126
  5   Berlin               (02)     120        Red Creek             131
  6   Lake Placid          (07)     178        Haldane               186
  7   Pierson              (11)     179        Pierson               194
  8   Haldane              (01)     191        Lake Placid           210
  9   Millbrook            (09)     204        Millbrook             212

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Tully beat Maple Grove by only 5 points at States last year with Delhi finishing 3rd ... All three teams have nearly an equal chance of winning depending on performance by various team scorers.

Like last year, this is one of those races where every place does matter ... displacement by runners from other teams could be the deciding factor.

Individual Race ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is the odds-on favorite entering the Class D race (she won the last three years) ... Madison Relyea and Ava Crist look even-up for the #2 spot, with a bunch of girls in contention for the next several places (some are team runners and it could make a difference in deciding the team winner).

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering States:
1   Brooke Rauber         11   03-D    Tully                  155
2   Madison Relyea        11   02-D    Mayfield               116
3   Ava Crist             11   06-D    Maple Grove            116
4   Lily Czub             9    02-D    Hoosic Valley          109
5   Penelope Greene       11   11-D    Pierson                108
6   Caitlyn Acompora      10   03-D    Hamilton               108
7   Kelsey Young          12   04-D    Deposit-Hancock        105
8   Alyssa Walker         12   04-D    Elmira Notre Dame      105
9   Acacia Barber         11   06-D    Frewsburg              105
10  Katie Edinger         9    03-D    Tully                  103
11  Christina Peppy       11   06-D    Maple Grove            102
12  Angelina Pusateri     9    02-D    Maple Hill             101
13  Alexa Wolcott         10   05-D    Pavilion/York          101
14  Kylee Odell           12   06-D    Clymer-Sherman         100
15  Emily Rudolph         12   03-D    Remsen                 100
16  Shannon Ferri         11   01-D    Haldane                99
17  Cella Schnabel        11   04-D    Delhi                  99
18  Jade Dening           11   03-D    Remsen                 98
19  Michelle Puzulis      11   02-D    Berne-Knox-West        96
20  Abby Brunenavs        10   06-D    Maple Grove            96
21  Madalenn Fee          10   05-D    Red Jacket             95