Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   16           Fayetteville-Manlius    15
  2   Liverpool              47           Liverpool               64
  3   Baldwinsville         115           Baldwinsville           93
  4   Cicero-North Syracuse 119           Central Square         127
  5   Central Square        128           Cicero-North Syracuse  133
  6   Rome                  157           Rome                   149
  7   West Genesee          206           Oswego                 210
  8   Oswego                243           West Genesee           221
  9   Auburn                272           Auburn                 252
  10  Syracuse West         277           Syracuse West          296
  11  Nottingham            356           Nottingham             347
  12  Proctor               377           Proctor                375
  13  Henninger             396
			

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius beat Liverpool at the SCAC League Meet by 18 to 49 points ... Fayetteville-Manlius could score a perfect 15 point in this sectional championship race, but a bunch of runners from different teams are in contention to finish in the top five.

Individual Race ... The top guys are listed below ... I expect somebody from FM will win ... The top five finishers not on the winning team qualify as individuals to the State Meet (for all classes).

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Geoff Howles          11   03-A    FM                     182
2   Garrett Brennan       12   03-A    FM                     181
3   Peyton Geehrer        10   03-A    FM                     179
4   Sam Otis              11   03-A    FM                     179
5   Nathan Reeves         12   03-A    Liverpool              175
6   Matthew Tripp         12   03-A    FM                     174
7   Jake McGowan          10   03-A    Liverpool              172
8   Matt Bartolotta       11   03-A    West Genesee           170
9   Carter Rodriguez      10   03-A    Liverpool              170
10  Rj Davis              10   03-A    CNS                    166
11  Nathan Poirier        12   03-A    CNS                    166
12  Spencer Ruediger      12   03-A    Liverpool              165
13  Nolan Chiles          12   03-A    FM                     164
14  Nick Brancato         12   03-A    Liverpool              164
15  Gabe Chisari          12   03-A    Central Square         163
16  Brandon Martin        12   03-A    Central Square         163
17  Adam Davis            12   03-A    Baldwinsville          161
18  Yakob Kelley          9    03-A    FM                     161
19  Tj Praschunus         12   03-A    Liverpool              161
20  Devon McClendon       12   03-A    Rome                   160

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ===================  =====
  1   Jamesville Dewitt      58           Jamesville Dewitt      52
  2   New Hartford          104           New Hartford          112
  3   Fulton                113           Cortland              112
  4   Cortland              115           Camden                128
  5   Chittenango           148           East Syracuse-Minoa   139
  6   East Syracuse-Minoa   157           Chittenango           160
  7   Camden                169           Fulton                162
  8   Homer                 205           Homer                 181
  9   Carthage              218           Central Valley        233
  10  Whitesboro            231           Whitesboro            250
  11  Central Valley        258           Carthage              269
  12  Watertown             299           Watertown             291
  13  Indian River          378           Indian River          412
  14  Oneida                421           Oneida                419

Pre-Race Analysis ... Jamesville Dewitt is the solid favorite ... Jamesville Dewitt beat New Hartford at both the Baldwinsville and Whitesboro Invitational races.

Jamesville Dewitt finished 6th at the SCAC League Meet, but were only beaten by the Class A teams (FM, etc).

Individual Race ...Josh Farmer is the favorite to repeat as the Class B champion with Nick Berg second again ... a bunch of runners in contention for the other qualifying spots.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Josh Farmer           12   03-B    New Hartford           178
2   Nick Berg             11   03-B    ESM                    172
3   Andy Ryan             12   03-B    Cortland               164
4   Nick Mannion          12   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      161
5   Andrew Hyde           12   03-B    Fulton                 160
6   Tyler Stevens         12   03-B    Cortland               159
7   Teddy Mercer          12   03-B    Homer                  159
8   Kaleel Boykins        11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      159
9   Isaac Crandall        12   03-B    Fulton                 157
10  Ersilio Cerminaro     12   03-B    Chittenango            155
11  Neal Anderson         11   03-B    Carthage               149
12  Dave Gratien          12   03-B    Chittenango            148
13  Simon Seidl           12   03-B    Camden                 148
14  Ahviere Reese         11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      148
15  Luke Hobika           11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      147

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Westhill              104           Westhill                79
  2   Skaneateles           105           Skaneateles             85
  3   Hannibal              115           Hannibal               103
  4   CBA-Syracuse          149           Cooperstown            107
  5   Cooperstown           161           CBA-Syracuse           120
  6   Jordan-Elbridge       175           V-V-S                  165
  7   V-V-S                 196           Pulaski                247
  8   Pulaski               197           Marcellus              253
  9   Marcellus             222           Cazenovia              256
  10  Cazenovia             254           Jordan-Elbridge        261
  11  Phoenix               300           Clinton                325
  12  South Jefferson       309           Port Byron             330
  13  Port Byron            310           Holland Patent         354
  14  Holland Patent        340           Adirondack             369
  15  Clinton               360           Solvay                 395
  16  Adirondack            381           South Jefferson        410
  17  Solvay                478           Phoenix                443
  18  Mt. Markham           520           Canastota              513
  19  Canastota             547           Little Falls           564
  20  APW                   569
  21  Little Falls          599
  22  Sherburne-Earl        604

Pre-Race Analysis ... This race is a bit confusing at the top end, in part, due to some runners who may or may not be competing ... The seasonal speed ratings give Westhill more of an advantage than shown above, but the results of the recent OHSL Liberty Championship may be more representative of the sectional race.

At the OHSL Liberty Championships, Skaneateles (81 points) beat Hannibal (87), Westhill (88), CBA (107) and Jordan-Elbridge (143) ... Based on this race, the scores above represent a compromise ... and Skaneateles, Hannibal and Westhill all appear capable of winning with CBA not that far behind ... Cooperstown won the CSC Conference Championship and may be better than indicated above.

Individual Race ... Tyler Fauvelle is the favorite to win the Class C individual title ... Riley Nash, Dan Washburn and others are in contention.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Tyler Fauvelle        11   03-C    Adirondack             174
2   Riley Nash            11   03-C    CBA                    166
3   Dan Washburn          12   03-C    Westhill               165
4   Caleb Bender          10   03-C    Skaneateles            161
5   Ryan Lansing          11   03-C    Cooperstown            161
6   Zach Medicis          11   03-C    CBA                    157
7   Dylan Richard         12   03-C    Holland Patent         155
8   Owen Vincent          11   03-C    South Jefferson        155
9   Sean Dristle          11   03-C    Jordan-Elbridge        151
10  Patrick Hall          12   03-C    Hannibal               151
11  Braden York           11   03-C    Port Byron             150
12  Dillon Plantz         11   03-C    Hannibal               149
13  Joe Norris            10   03-C    Skaneateles            147
14  Jacob Fricano         11   03-C    Westhill               147
15  Ryan Burr             12   03-C    Cooperstown            147
16  Brendan Rewakowski    12   03-C    Westhill               147

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School               Score
      ==================  =====           ==================   =====
  1   Beaver River           25           Beaver River            17
  2   Sauquoit Valley        79           Sauquoit Valley        100
  3   West Canada           115           Waterville             129
  4   Oriskany              137           West Canada            133
  5   Tully                 149           Oriskany               142
  6   Waterville            193           Tully                  150
  7   New York Mills        199           New York Mills         177
  8   Weedsport             255           Weedsport              236
  9   Blessed Virgin Mary   278           LaFayette              253
  10  LaFayette             292           Blessed Virgin Mary    287
  11  Westmoreland          311           Westmoreland           341
  12  Dolgeville            337           MPH                    342
  13  Utica Notre Dame      368           Dolgeville             344
  14  MPH                   369           Utica Notre Dame       380
  15  Cato-Meridian         380           Onondaga               383
  16  Onondaga              403           Bishop Grimes          431
  17  Fabius-Pompey         446           Cato-Meridian          450
  18  Bishop Grimes         477           Herkimer               519
  19  Herkimer              544

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the defending Class D champion in both Section 3 and NY State ... and Beaver River is a solid favorite to repeat in 2018 ... Like last year, Beaver River won the Frontier League meet.

Sauquoit Valley appears 2nd best, but it might be closer than the score above indicates ... Sauquoit Valley finished 2nd at the CSC Conference Championship (only 3 points behind Cooperstown) with West Canada Valley only 4 points behind Sauquoit Valley.

Individual Race ... Colton Kempney is the favorite to win the individual title ... Hans Matzal has been running well and should challenge Cory Demo, Josiah Evan, Dylan Williams and Jack Rivet for 2nd.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Colton Kempney        9    03-D    Beaver River           176
2   Cory Demo             10   03-D    Beaver River           165
3   Josiah Evan           11   03-D    Beaver River           164
4   Hans Matzal           12   03-D    Faith Heritage         162
5   Dylan Williams        11   03-D    Waterville             159
6   Jack Rivet            11   03-D    Old Forge              157
7   Sam Sharlow           12   03-D    Oriskany               149
8   Michael Roberts       11   03-D    Remsen                 148
9   Bryce Florian         12   03-D    Tully                  144
10  Austin Canaguier      12   03-D    Sauquoit Valley        143
11  Clayton Davis         11   03-D    West Canada            142
12  Brayden Campeau       9    03-D    Beaver River           142
13  Hunter Moore          10   03-D    Beaver River           141
14  Conrad Freed          10   03-D    Beaver River           141

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================== ====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius   39           Fayetteville-Manlius   43
  2   Liverpool              39           Liverpool              44
  3   Cicero-North Syracuse 107           Baldwinsville         111
  4   Baldwinsville         124           Cicero-North Syracuse 113
  5   Rome Free Academy     143           Rome Free Academy     122
  6   West Genesee          157           West Genesee          155
  7   Central Square        184           Oswego                186
  8   Oswego                198           Central Square        219
  9   Auburn                244           Auburn                255
  10  Henninger             327           Henninger             313
  11  Nottingham            345           Syracuse West         355
  12  Proctor               363           Nottingham            360
								

Pre-Race Analysis ... This is an interesting race from a handicapping viewpoint ... Effectively it's a dual meet match-up between Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool based on team strength ... However, Class A has some other very good girl runners capable of competing with the Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool scorers ... and this means that significant team scoring displacement will occur based on finish positions.

Computer simulated races based on Monte Carlo simulations indicate that Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool win approximately the same percentage of races ... In a Monte Carlo simulation, the seasonal speed ratings of each runner are wrapped in a probability distribution and the computer randomly selects one speed rating from the distribution curve for each runner for one race (example: a runner has seasonal ratings ranging from 100 to 120 ... a curve is generated around that range with the most recent speed ratings being most important, and a random number generator selects one speed rating from the curve) ... this represents one possible outcome of the race ... Obviously, there are many possible outcomes ... Therefore, I run 50,000 simulated races and compile the results ... Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool are even-up.

Based on finish position of the 6th finisher for both teams, Fayetteville-Manlius has a very slight advantage so FM is placed at the #1 position above ..... BUT placement of runners from other teams is a major factor in determining the team scores ... Every place matters in this race.

Individual Race ... Claire Walters has been running very well and is the individual favorite to win with Jenna Schulz and Madison Neuner 2nd and 3rd ... a bunch a runners are in contention for a qualifying spot to States ... The top ranked runners are listed below.

 
The Top-Ranked Class A Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Claire Walters        11   03-A    FM                     149
2   Jenna Schulz          11   03-A    Liverpool              142
3   Madison Neuner        12   03-A    Liverpool              133
4   Grace Kaercher        10   03-A    FM                     127
5   Gianna Capoccia       10   03-A    Rome                   126
6   Sydney Carlson        10   03-A    Liverpool              125
7   Justus Holden-Betts   12   03-A    Baldwinsville          125
8   Phoebe White          11   03-A    FM                     124
9   Kate Putman           8    03-A    CNS                    123
10  Molly Fitzgibbons     11   03-A    Oswego                 121
11  Miranda Gilbert       11   03-A    Oswego                 119
12  Hannah Kaercher       8    03-A    FM                     117
13  Windsor Ardner        12   03-A    Liverpool              116
14  Emily Neuner          12   03-A    Liverpool              115
15  Allison Newton        10   03-A    CNS                    108
16  Chloe Bullough        12   03-A    FM                     102
17  Emily Toth-Ratazzi    9    03-A    Rome                   101
18  Emily Cook            12   03-A    FM                     100
19  Lejla Borcilo         10   03-A    FM                     98
20  Gabby McCarthy        10   03-A    Liverpool              97

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   CBA-Syracuse           40           CBA-Syracuse           35
  2   Jamesville Dewitt      72           Camden                 40
  3   Camden                 73           New Hartford           85
  4   New Hartford           95           Jamesville Dewitt     105
  5   Chittenango           110           Chittenango           140
  6   Whitesboro            169           East Syracuse-Minoa   191
  7   East Syracuse-Minoa   200           Whitesboro            196
  8   Carthage              230           Homer                 196
  9   Homer                 252           Fulton                253
  10  Central Valley        299           Central Valley        255
  11  Fulton                304           Carthage              293
  12  Indian River          321           Indian River          336
  13  Cortland              359           Watertown             336
  14  Watertown             365
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... CBA-Syracuse won the NY State Class C title last year and were moved up the Class B in 2018 ... CBA won the OHSL Liberty Championship convincingly.

Jamesville-Dewitt and Camden appear even-up for the 2nd spot ... Jamesville-Dewitt finished 6th at the SCAC League Meet, but were only beaten by the Class A teams (FM, Liverpool etc) ... Camden finished 2nd to Rome Free Academy at the Tri-Valley League Championships (by only 1 point) with New Hartford 3rd (21 points behind Camden).

Individual Race ... Olivia Morganti has been racing very well the season and is the favorite to win the individual title, and she is the top-rated Class B runner in the State  ... Elizabeth Lucason is capable of challenging for the win.

 
The Top-Ranked Class B Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Olivia Morganti       11   03-B    CBA                    141
2   Elizabeth Lucason     9    03-B    Camden                 133
3   Deja Scripa-Jones     10   03-B    CBA                    122
4   Kaylee Lacreta        10   03-B    New Hartford           112
5   Morgan Lucason        11   03-B    Camden                 105
6   Sophia Vinciguerra    12   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      105
7   McKenzie Dombroski    12   03-B    Chittenango            100
8   Madison Mack          9    03-B    Oneida                 99
9   Cory Knox             12   03-B    CBA                    98
10  Lea Kyle              11   03-B    CBA                    96
11  Amelia Gilbert        11   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      90
12  Madeline Foss         10   03-B    Jamesville Dewitt      90
13  Catherine Seidl       11   03-B    Camden                 89
14  Bri Pucci             12   03-B    CBA                    89
15  Haley Hinds           11   03-B    Camden                 88

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Clinton                55           Clinton                45
  2   South Jefferson        73           South Jefferson        56
  3   Westhill              117           Westhill               94
  4   Cazenovia             137           Cazenovia             135
  5   Skaneateles           149           Marcellus             152
  6   V-V-S                 166           V-V-S                 166
  7   Marcellus             168           Jordan-Elbridge       219
  8   Adirondack            233           Hannibal              234
  9   Hannibal              260           Port Byron            234
  10  Jordan-Elbridge       261           Skaneateles           250
  11  Port Byron            266           Adirondack            253
  12  Pulaski               329           Pulaski               353
  13  Mount Markham         380           Canastota             354
  14  Canastota             385           Phoenix               370
  15  Phoenix               391           Holland Patent        384
  16  Holland Patent        408
  17  Little Falls          423
							

Pre-Race Analysis ... As can be noted in the top-ranked runner list below, both Clinton and South Jefferson have 3 runners in the top 12 of Section 3.

Clinton won the CSC Conference Championship by 47 points ... South Jefferson finished 3rd at the Frontier League Championship (behind South Lewis and Beaver River).

Individual Race ... Eva Borton is the favorite to win the individual title, and she is the top-rated Class C runner in the State ... Delaney Brewer is a solid choice to finish 2nd.

 
The Top-Ranked Class C Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Eva Borton            12   03-C    Clinton                132
2   Delaney Brewer        11   03-C    VVS                    117
3   Alexa Doe             9    03-C    South Jefferson        102
4   Liz Kessler           11   03-C    Westhill               94
5   Madison Luke          9    03-C    Clinton                93
6   Olivia Furman         11   03-C    VVS                    87
7   Karsyn Burnash        9    03-C    South Jefferson        87
8   Taylor Harvey         10   03-C    Clinton                85
9   Clara Rowles          12   03-C    Cazenovia              83
10  Georgia McSwain       11   03-C    Skaneateles            82
11  Maggie Strempel       11   03-C    Marcellus              81
12  Alycia Haynes         12   03-C    South Jefferson        80

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Tully                  50           Tully                  47
  2   South Lewis            60           South Lewis            48
  3   Beaver River           64           Beaver River           81
  4   Remsen                171           Remsen                143
  5   Sauquoit Valley       176           Sauquoit Valley       184
  6   LaFayette             178           Oriskany              187
  7   Oriskany              204           LaFayette             193
  8   West Canada           238           New York Mills        219
  9   New York Mills        254           Cato-Meridian         247
  10  Cato-Meridian         271           Utica Notre Dame      264
  11  Utica Notre Dame      283           West Canada           264
  12  Weedsport             305           Hamilton              292
  13  Hamilton              321           Weedsport             324
  14  Onondaga              327           Onondaga              371
  15  Sandy Creek           363           Bishop Grimes         377
  16  Bishop Grimes         394           Sandy Creek           404
  17  Westmoreland          466           Faith Heritage        470
  18  Faith Heritage        504
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... South Lewis is the defending Class D champion in both Section 3 and NY State ... This season, South Lewis is facing serious challenges from both Tully and Beaver River.

Tully won the OHSL Patriot Championship with team score of 17 ... Like last year, South Lewis beat Beaver River at the Frontier League Championship by a narrow margin (32 to 40).

Individual Race ... Brooke Rauber (Tully) is the top-rated Class D runner in NY State and a solid favorite to win the individual title again ... South Lewis runners Hannah Ielfield and Lexi Bernard appear to be solid choices at the next two spots.

 
The Top-Ranked Class D Runners Entering Sectionals:
1   Brooke Rauber         10   03-D    Tully                  149
2   Hannah Ielfield       10   03-D    South Lewis            127
3   Lexi Bernard          9    03-D    South Lewis            122
4   Jade Dening           10   03-D    Remsen                 113
5   Brynn Bernard         7    03-D    South Lewis            106
6   Emily Rudolph         11   03-D    Old Forge              106
7   Taylor Moore          12   03-D    Beaver River           103
8   Rylee Campeau         12   03-D    Beaver River           102
9   Brynne Myers          12   03-D    Remsen                 100
10  Abbey Copperwheat     12   03-D    New York Mills         93
11  Alison Carr           12   03-D    Tully                  90
12  Rachel Berry          12   03-D    Tully                  89
13  Lilly Fowler-Conner   10   03-D    Tully                  86
14  Katie Edinger         8    03-D    Tully                  85
15  Makayla Garrison      10   03-D    Beaver River           83
16  Ciana Papineau        9    03-D    LaFayette              82
17  Lydia Snow            10   03-D    Waterville             80