National Pre-Season XC 2018
BOYS Teams - National 2018
Bill Meylan (July 26, 2018)
- Boys - Contending National Teams
- ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
- Purpose
- ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
- Ranking Method
- ... General extension of the 2017 XC season into 2018
- ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
- ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
- ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
- ... Consider performance in championship races
- ... Initially, combine about 70 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
- ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with worst scores in an iterative process
- ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors
Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2018 race results are what count.
Also Remember ... Most top boy's
teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ...
Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams
below requires guessing -
occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess"
.
I did add some Regional Projections
Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2018
School State Score NXN Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ----------
1 Loudoun Valley VA 255 Southeast
2 Great Oak CA 260 California
3 Burnt Hills NY 265 New York
4 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 275 New York
5 St. Francis (Mt View) CA 285 California
6 Wheaton Warrenville So IL 290 Midwest
7 American Fork UT 325 Southwest
8 Dana Hills CA 330 California
9 Bishop Hendricken RI 365 Northeast
10 Central Valley WA 375 Northwest
11 Kamiakin WA 375 Northwest
12 Christian Brothers NJ 390 Northeast
13 Flower Mound TX 395 South
14 Middleton WI 396 Heartland
15 Dowling Catholic IA 397 Heartland
16 Wayzata MN 398 Heartland
17 Bolles FL 399 Southeast
18 Xavier CT 400 Northeast
19 Dakota Ridge CO 415 Southwest
20 Plymouth MI 425 Midwest
21 Haddonfield Mem. NJ 430 Northeast
22 Camas WA 440 Northwest
23 Carmel IN 440 Midwest
24 Edmonds Woodway WA 450 Northwest
25 Lewis And Clark WA 450 Northwest
26 Indianapolis Cathedral IN 450 Midwest
27 Cary NC 451 Southeast
28 Fishers IN 460 Midwest
29 Corning NY 460 New York
30 La Salle Academy RI 470 Northeast
30* Smithson Valley TX 470 South
* added above (from below) for multiple team
regional representation from each region
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled ... some could be above as well.
Severna Park MD Southeast
Weddington NC Southeast
Dublin-NCS CA California
Glenbard West IL Midwest
Kingwood TX South
Edina MN Heartland
Hudson OH Midwest
Mundelein IL Midwest
Jesuit OR Northwest
North Allegheny PA Northeast
Saratoga NY New York
Fayetteville AR South
Bentonville AR South
Rocky Mountain ID Northwest
Niwot CO Southwest
Rock Canyon CO Southwest
Southlake Carroll TX South
Bozeman MT Northwest
Poly (LB)-SS CA California
St. Thomas Aquinas KS Heartland
Klein TX South
LaSalle College PA Northeast
El Paso Eastwood TX South
Smithtown NY New York
Wellesley MA Northeast
Bloomington South IN Midwest
Skyridge UT Southwest
Idaho Falls ID Northwest
Tatnall DE Southeast
Olathe North KS Heartland
Salesianum School DE Southeast
Pleasant Valley IA Heartland
Grapevine TX South
The Woodlands TX South
Mountain Brook AL Southeast
Dubuque Hempstead IA Heartland
Wylie High TX South
Hinsdale Central IL Midwest
St. Xavier (Lou) KY Southeast
Siegel TN Southeast
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
- Where did the scores come from?
- ... 2017 Seasonal Speed Ratings
- ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
- ... Manual
manipulation based on Guessing
- Last Year's Pre-Season Projections (Guesses)
- ... 2017 Projections & NXN Results are shown in a table below
- ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2017, I did not identify 6 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list)
- ... The 10 of the top 15 teams at NXN 2017 were ranked in my pre-season top 30 teams ... 6 of the top 11 teams at NXN were ranked in my top 10 pre-season teams
- General Comments for the Coming Season
- ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
- ... 13 of the top 30 teams above competed at NXN Nationals last year
- ... 4 of the top 5 teams above finished in the top 9 at NXN Nationals last year
- Loudoun Valley is the slight favorite because they are the defending champion ... But the next five teams are close.
#1 - Loudoun Valley VA ... Loudoun Valley is the defending NXN Champion ... they won NXN by an impressive 70 point margin over Fayetteville-Manlius ... However, three Loudoun Valley runners from NXN Nationals graduated (finishers #1, #3 and #6), and that tightens the pre-season margin by a fair amount ... Fortunately for Loudoun Valley, they have additional good runners at national-caliber team level allowing them to be a slight favorite entering the 2018 season.
Top returning runner (Sam Affloder) is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (#12) ... Returning speed ratings for the top six are about 190, 185, 174, 171, 163 and 160 ... they may be getting a good transfer (but I do not know if it's true) ... Loudoun Valley performed very well on the NXN National course and that's a big plus ... Overall, I think they deserve to be the pre-season favorite ... BUT some teams seem capable of being very serious challengers.
#2 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 6th at NXN Nationals last year, 6th in 2016 and Great Oak won NXN Nationals in 2015 ... Great Oak lost 3 runners to graduation from their NXN and State Meet team (including their #1 runner), but return a talented core of runners and have some good returning JV runners ... Returning speed ratings of about 180, 180, 179, 173 and 165 have Great Oak ranked #2 ... Depth of squad, experience at the course and winning in 2015 were considerations.
#3 - Burnt Hills NY ... Burnt Hills is the top ranked New York team entering the 2018 season ... Burnt Hills won the NY Federation Championship and then finished 3rd at the New York NXN Regional (and were not selected as an At-Large team) ... their performance at NXN Regional was an "off-team" performance, and that's a concern despite some team member sickness ... Burnt Hills returns 6 of 7 runners including their top runners (full individual profiles of 3 runners on the NY Boys Top Runners Page) ... Returning speed ratings are about 187, 184 176, 172 and 163.
#4 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto qualifier to NXN Nationals the last 10 years ... FM finished 2nd at NXN last year and won in 2014 ... their best team performances last year were the NXN Regional and NXN Nationals ... FM returns 5 of 7 runners including their top runner (full individual profiles of 2 runners on the NY Boys Top Runners Page) ... Returning speed ratings are about 187, 179 177, 168 and 166.
#5 - St. Francis (Mountain View) CA ... St. Francis (MV) finished 9th at NXN last year ... they were 3rd in the California State Meet Merge ... St. Francis (MV) returns 6 of their 7 runners from those races, but lose their top finisher to graduation ... Returning speed ratings are about 180, 179 176, 167 and 166.
#6 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL ... Wheaton Warrenville South did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 5th at NXR Midwest (only 5 points behind Neuqua Valley) and were 3rd at the Illinois State Meet ... they return 6 of 7 runners including their top 4 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 181, 178 176, 170 and 165.
#7 - American Fork UT ... American Fork did not compete at NXN Nationals last year, but has competed at NXN Nationals many times ... American Fork finished 2nd at NXN in 2016, 5th in 2014, 7th in 2013 and 2nd in 2012 ... they finished 5th at NXR Southwest last year ... American Fork returns their top 4 runners from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 179, 178 176, 167 and 165 ... they typically have a deep squad as well.
#8 - Dana Hills CA ... Dana Hills did not compete at NXN Nationals last year, but has competed at NXN Nationals many times ... they finished 14th at NXN Nationals in 2016 and 3rd in 2015 ... Dana Hills finished 5th in California State Meet Merge last year ... Dana Hills returns 5 runners from States ... Returning speed ratings are about 184, 183 171, 168 and 164.
#9 - Bishop Hendricken RI ... Bishop Hendricken did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 3rd at NXR Northeast and won the Rhode Island State Meet ... they return 6 of 7 runners including their top 3 ... Returning speed ratings are about 174, 173 172, 169 and 167.
#10 - Central Valley WA ... Central Valley finished 13th at NXN Nationals last year ... they won NXR Northwest ... Central Valley returns 5 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 185, 179 169, 166 and 166.
#11 - Kamiakan WA ... Kamiakan finished 17th at NXN Nationals last year ... they were 2nd at NXR Northwest ... Kamiakan returns 5 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 181, 177 172, 168 and 160.
#12 -Christian Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and 2nd in 2013) ... they finished 7th at NXN Nationals last year and 7th in 2016 ... Christian Brothers graduated 3 runners from their top 7, however, they are typically a very deep team so I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt with respect to reloading ... Returning speed ratings are about 178, 175, 169, 164 and 163.
#13 - Flower Mound TX ... Flower Mound finished 14th at NXN Nationals last year ... they won NXR South ... Flower Mound returns 5 of 7 runners including their top 2 who are profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (Alex Maier #6 and Jarret Kirk #26) ... Returning speed ratings are about 193, 187 169, 163 and 160.
#14 - Middleton WI ... Middleton finished 16th at NXN Nationals last year ... they were 2nd at NXR Heartland ... Middleton returns 5 runners from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 180, 176, 176, 163 and 161.
#15 - Dowling Catholic IA ... Dowling Catholic did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 3rd at NXR Heartland ... Dowling Catholic returns 5 runners from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 178, 176, 169, 168 and 161.
#16 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... they finished 11th at NXN Nationals last year, 10th in 2016 and 14th in 2015 ... Wayzata won NRX Heartland last year ... Five runners from NXN and NXR graduated, but Wayzata has a deep team ... Returning speed ratings are 174, 173, 167, 166 and 163.
#17 - Bolles FL ... Bolles finished 20th at NXN Nationals last year ... they were 2nd at NXR Southeast ... Bolles returns 5 runners from NXN including their top 3 from NXN (top runner is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (Charles Hicks #8)) ... Returning speed ratings are about 192, 178, 171, 170 and 155.
#18 - Xavier CT ... Xavier finished 18th at NXN Nationals last year ... they won NXR Northeast ... Xavier returns their top 4 runners from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 175, 175, 174, and 172 (having no data, I made a guess for the #5 runner).
#19 - Dakota Ridge CO ... Dakota Ridge did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 7th at NXR Southwest ... Dakota Ridge returns 6 of 7 runners including their top two ... Returning speed ratings are about 183, 183, 168, 163 and 160 (they could better this ranking).
#20 - Plymouth MI ... Plymouth MI did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... also did not compete at NXR Midwest (perhaps due to potential restrictions-sanctions imposed by the Michigan High School Athletic Assoc) ... they finished a close 2nd at the Michigan State Meet D1 (lost by only 3 points) ... Plymouth returns 5 of their top 6 runners including the top runner ... Returning speed ratings are about 186, 169, 169, 168 and 164.
NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.
Pre-season ranking is part data and
part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant
amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large
... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion
... Some
Regional Projection lists are
available at the bottom of this page.