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National Pre-Season XC 2018

BOYS Teams - National 2018

Bill Meylan (July 26, 2018)

 

  • Boys - Contending National Teams
  •  ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest and to gather background information
  •  
  • Purpose
  •  ... Get a general idea where the national teams might rank overall
  •  
  • Ranking Method
  •  ... General extension of the 2017 XC season into 2018
  •  ... Focus on cross country results ... modify selectively with track results
  •  ... Exclude teams with limited data or data that can't be guessed readily
  •  ... First Criteria - consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races
  •  ... Consider performance in championship races
  •  ... Initially, combine about 70 teams in a single race scenario (via speed ratings)
  •  ... Eliminate 10-20 teams with worst scores in an iterative process
  •  ... Stop when 30 teams remain ... Manipulate scores and positions based on other factors

Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... Real 2018 race results are what count.

Also Remember ... Most top boy's teams contain a fair number of seniors, and those seniors graduate ... Significant graduation from last year means projecting many of the teams below requires guessing - occasionally it's a "shot -in-the-dark guess".

I did add some Regional Projections

 

 Pre-Season National BOYS Teams 2018
 

 Pre-Season Projection - BOYS National Team Contenders - 2018


      School                 State   Score     NXN Region
      --------------------   -----   -----     ----------
  1   Loudoun Valley          VA      255      Southeast
  2   Great Oak               CA      260      California
  3   Burnt Hills             NY      265      New York
  4   Fayetteville-Manlius    NY      275      New York
  5   St. Francis (Mt View)   CA      285      California
  6   Wheaton Warrenville So  IL      290      Midwest
  7   American Fork           UT      325      Southwest
  8   Dana Hills              CA      330      California
  9   Bishop Hendricken       RI      365      Northeast
  10  Central Valley          WA      375      Northwest
  11  Kamiakin                WA      375      Northwest
  12  Christian Brothers      NJ      390      Northeast
  13  Flower Mound            TX      395      South
  14  Middleton               WI      396      Heartland
  15  Dowling Catholic        IA      397      Heartland
  16  Wayzata                 MN      398      Heartland
  17  Bolles                  FL      399      Southeast
  18  Xavier                  CT      400      Northeast
  19  Dakota Ridge            CO      415      Southwest
  20  Plymouth                MI      425      Midwest
  21  Haddonfield Mem.        NJ      430      Northeast
  22  Camas                   WA      440      Northwest
  23  Carmel                  IN      440      Midwest
  24  Edmonds Woodway         WA      450      Northwest
  25  Lewis And Clark         WA      450      Northwest
  26  Indianapolis Cathedral  IN      450      Midwest
  27  Cary                    NC      451      Southeast
  28  Fishers                 IN      460      Midwest
  29  Corning                 NY      460      New York
  30  La Salle Academy        RI      470      Northeast
  30* Smithson Valley         TX      470      South
    * added above (from below) for multiple team
       regional representation from each region


    The next group is basically in order following the
     list above ... Many are very close and the order
      could be shuffled ... some could be above as well.

       Severna Park            MD      Southeast
       Weddington              NC      Southeast
       Dublin-NCS              CA      California
       Glenbard West           IL      Midwest
       Kingwood                TX      South
       Edina                   MN      Heartland
       Hudson                  OH      Midwest
       Mundelein               IL      Midwest
       Jesuit                  OR      Northwest
       North Allegheny         PA      Northeast
       Saratoga                NY      New York
       Fayetteville            AR      South
       Bentonville             AR      South
       Rocky Mountain          ID      Northwest
       Niwot                   CO      Southwest
       Rock Canyon             CO      Southwest
       Southlake Carroll       TX      South
       Bozeman                 MT      Northwest
       Poly (LB)-SS            CA      California
       St. Thomas Aquinas      KS      Heartland
       Klein                   TX      South
       LaSalle College         PA      Northeast
       El Paso Eastwood        TX      South
       Smithtown               NY      New York
       Wellesley               MA      Northeast
       Bloomington South       IN      Midwest
       Skyridge                UT      Southwest
       Idaho Falls             ID      Northwest
       Tatnall                 DE      Southeast
       Olathe North            KS      Heartland
       Salesianum School       DE      Southeast
       Pleasant Valley         IA      Heartland
       Grapevine               TX      South
       The Woodlands           TX      South
       Mountain Brook          AL      Southeast
       Dubuque Hempstead       IA      Heartland
       Wylie High              TX      South
       Hinsdale Central        IL      Midwest
       St. Xavier (Lou)        KY      Southeast
       Siegel                  TN      Southeast

  *** I may have missed a team or two going through
        my databases as quickly as I did

		
  • Where did the scores come from?
  •  ... 2017 Seasonal Speed Ratings
  •  ... Manual manipulation based on track results (but not that many)
  •  ... Manual manipulation based on Guessing
  •  
  • Last Year's Pre-Season Projections (Guesses)
  •  ... 2017 Projections & NXN Results are shown in a table below
  •  ... Of the 22 teams at NXN 2017, I did not identify 6 teams (they were unranked in the top 30 teams and not listed in the extra team list)
  •  ...  The 10 of the top 15 teams at NXN 2017 were ranked in my pre-season top 30 teams ... 6 of the top 11 teams at NXN were ranked in my top 10 pre-season teams
Note ... Boys Pre-Season rankings are generally harder to generate than Girls rankings ... The reason is that boys teams are generally more senior-dominated than girls teams, so a higher percentage of boys graduate ... therefore, fewer boys teams are "identifiable" as being strong going into the following year.

 

  • General Comments for the Coming Season
  •  ... Top pre-season teams are typically highly-ranked teams from the previous year that return a solid core of good runners
  •  ... 13 of the top 30 teams above competed at NXN Nationals last year
  •  ... 4 of the top 5 teams above finished in the top 9 at NXN Nationals last year
  •  
  • Loudoun Valley is the slight favorite because they are the defending champion ... But the next five teams are close.

 

 Comments on the TOP 20 Teams:
 

#1 - Loudoun Valley VA ... Loudoun Valley is the defending NXN Champion ... they won NXN by an impressive 70 point margin over Fayetteville-Manlius ... However, three Loudoun Valley runners from NXN Nationals graduated (finishers #1, #3 and #6), and that tightens the pre-season margin by a fair amount ... Fortunately for Loudoun Valley, they have additional good runners at national-caliber team level allowing them to be a slight favorite entering the 2018 season.

Top returning runner (Sam Affloder) is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (#12) ... Returning speed ratings for the top six are about 190, 185, 174, 171, 163 and 160 ... they may be getting a good transfer (but I do not know if it's true) ... Loudoun Valley performed very well on the NXN National course and that's a big plus ... Overall, I think they deserve to be the pre-season favorite ... BUT some teams seem capable of being very serious challengers.

#2 - Great Oak CA ... Great Oak finished 6th at NXN Nationals last year, 6th in 2016 and Great Oak won NXN Nationals in 2015 ... Great Oak lost 3  runners to graduation from their NXN and State Meet team (including their #1 runner), but return a talented core of runners and have some good returning JV runners ... Returning speed ratings of about 180, 180, 179, 173 and 165 have Great Oak ranked #2 ... Depth of squad, experience at the course and winning in 2015 were considerations.

#3 - Burnt Hills NY ... Burnt Hills is the top ranked New York team entering the 2018 season ... Burnt Hills won the NY Federation Championship and then finished 3rd at the New York NXN Regional (and were not selected as an At-Large team) ... their performance at NXN Regional was an "off-team" performance, and that's a concern despite some team member sickness ... Burnt Hills returns 6 of 7 runners including their top runners (full individual profiles of 3 runners on the NY Boys Top Runners Page) ... Returning speed ratings are about 187, 184 176, 172 and 163.

#4 - Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto qualifier to NXN Nationals the last 10 years ... FM finished 2nd at NXN last year and won in 2014 ... their best team performances last year were the NXN Regional and NXN Nationals ... FM returns 5 of 7 runners including their top runner (full individual profiles of 2 runners on the NY Boys Top Runners Page) ... Returning speed ratings are about 187, 179 177, 168 and 166. 

#5 - St. Francis (Mountain View) CA ... St. Francis (MV) finished 9th at NXN last year ... they were 3rd in the California State Meet Merge ... St. Francis (MV) returns 6 of their 7 runners from those races, but lose their top finisher to graduation ... Returning speed ratings are about 180, 179 176, 167 and 166.  

#6 - Wheaton Warrenville South IL ... Wheaton Warrenville South did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 5th at NXR Midwest (only 5 points behind Neuqua Valley) and were 3rd at the Illinois State Meet ... they return 6 of 7 runners including their top 4 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 181, 178 176, 170 and 165.

#7 - American Fork UT ... American Fork did not compete at NXN Nationals last year, but has competed at NXN Nationals many times ... American Fork finished 2nd at NXN in 2016, 5th in 2014, 7th in 2013 and 2nd in 2012 ... they finished 5th at NXR Southwest last year ... American Fork returns their top 4 runners from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 179, 178 176, 167 and 165 ... they typically have a deep squad as well.

#8 - Dana Hills CA ... Dana Hills did not compete at NXN Nationals last year, but has competed at NXN Nationals many times ... they finished 14th at NXN Nationals in 2016 and 3rd in 2015 ... Dana Hills finished 5th in California State Meet Merge last year ... Dana Hills returns 5 runners from States ... Returning speed ratings are about 184, 183 171, 168 and 164.

#9 - Bishop Hendricken RI ... Bishop Hendricken did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 3rd at NXR Northeast and won the Rhode Island State Meet ... they return 6 of 7 runners including their top 3 ... Returning speed ratings are about 174, 173 172, 169 and 167.

#10 - Central Valley WA ... Central Valley finished 13th at NXN Nationals last year ... they won NXR Northwest ... Central Valley returns 5 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 185, 179 169, 166 and 166.

#11 - Kamiakan WA ... Kamiakan finished 17th at NXN Nationals last year ... they were 2nd at NXR Northwest ... Kamiakan returns 5 of 7 runners ... Returning speed ratings are about 181, 177 172, 168 and 160.

#12 -Christian Brothers NJ ... Christian Brothers is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals (won in 2011 and 2nd in 2013) ... they finished 7th at NXN Nationals last year and 7th in 2016 ... Christian Brothers graduated 3 runners from their top 7, however, they are typically a very deep team so I'm giving them the benefit-of-the-doubt with respect to reloading ... Returning speed ratings are about 178, 175, 169, 164 and 163.

#13 - Flower Mound TX ... Flower Mound finished 14th at NXN Nationals last year ... they won NXR South ...  Flower Mound returns 5 of 7 runners including their top 2 who are profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (Alex Maier #6 and Jarret Kirk #26) ... Returning speed ratings are about 193, 187 169, 163 and 160.

#14 - Middleton WI ... Middleton finished 16th at NXN Nationals last year ... they were 2nd at NXR Heartland ... Middleton returns 5 runners from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 180, 176, 176, 163 and 161.

#15 - Dowling Catholic IA ... Dowling Catholic did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 3rd at NXR Heartland ... Dowling Catholic returns 5 runners from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 178, 176, 169, 168 and 161.

#16 - Wayzata MN ... Wayzata is a multiple-time competitor at NXN Nationals ... they finished 11th at NXN Nationals last year, 10th in 2016 and 14th in 2015 ... Wayzata won NRX Heartland last year ... Five runners from NXN and NXR graduated, but Wayzata has a deep team ... Returning speed ratings are 174, 173, 167, 166 and 163.

#17 - Bolles FL ... Bolles finished 20th at NXN Nationals last year ... they were 2nd at NXR Southeast ... Bolles returns 5 runners from NXN including their top 3 from NXN (top runner is profiled on the National Individual Boys Pre-Season Page (Charles Hicks #8)) ... Returning speed ratings are about 192, 178, 171, 170 and 155.

#18 - Xavier CT ... Xavier finished 18th at NXN Nationals last year ... they won NXR Northeast ... Xavier returns their top 4 runners from NXR ... Returning speed ratings are about 175, 175, 174, and 172 (having no data, I made a guess for the #5 runner).

#19 - Dakota Ridge CO ... Dakota Ridge did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... they finished 7th at NXR Southwest ... Dakota Ridge returns 6 of 7 runners including their top two ... Returning speed ratings are about 183, 183, 168, 163 and 160 (they could better this ranking).

#20 - Plymouth MI ... Plymouth MI did not compete at NXN Nationals last year ... also did not compete at NXR Midwest (perhaps due to potential restrictions-sanctions imposed by the Michigan High School Athletic Assoc) ... they finished a close 2nd at the Michigan State Meet D1 (lost by only 3 points) ... Plymouth returns 5 of their top 6 runners including the top runner ... Returning speed ratings are about 186, 169, 169, 168 and 164.

NOTE ..... The scores above indicate that many teams rate very closely ... The positions are just a guess at one point in time before the cross country season starts.

Pre-season ranking is part data and part "educated guessing", and at the national level, I use significant amount of guessing ... margins of error and uncertainty is large ... My "guesses" are just one guy's opinion ...  Some Regional Projection lists are available at the bottom of this page.

 

 

 Last Year's (2017) Boy's Pre-Season Projections ... and corresponding results with NXN Nationals
 

                                           NXN                   Finish Order at            Last Year's
      School               State  Score   Region                    NXN 2017                Pre-Season Projection
      -------------------  -----  -----   ------           -----------------------------    -----------------------
  1   Loudoun Valley         VA     220   Southeast        1   Loudoun Valley         VA  -  #1   pre-season
  2   Great Oak              CA     235   California       2   Fayetteville-Manlius   NY  -  #30+ group pre-season
  3   Downers Grove North    IL     300   Midwest          3   Mountain Vista         CO  -  #30+ group pre-season
  4   Carmel                 IN     320   Midwest          4   Downers Grove North    IL  -  #3   pre-season
  5   Roosevelt              CA     325   California       5   Springville            UT  -  #17  pre-season
  6   Wayzata                MN     330   Heartland        6   Great Oak              CA  -  #2   pre-season
  7   Christian Brothers     NJ     340   Northeast        7   Christian Brothers     NJ  -  #7   pre-season
  8   St. Xavier (Lou)       KY     360   Southeast        8   Desert Vista           AZ  -  #30+ group pre-season
  9   Crater                 OR     370   Northwest        9   St. Francis Mt View    CA  -  #30+ group pre-season
  10  Green Hope             NC     375   Southeast        10  Carmel                 IN  -  #4   pre-season
  11  The Woodlands          TX     385   South            11  Wayzata                MN  -  #6   pre-season
  12  Princeton              NJ     385   Northeast        12  Corning                NY  -  unranked (#6 New York)
  13  Timpanogos             UT     395   Southwest        13  Central Valley         WA  -  #18  pre-season
  14  Dana Hills             CA     395   California       14  Flower Mound           TX  -  #30  pre-season
  15  Bellarmine-CA          CA     395   California       15  Eleanor Roosevelt CA   TX  -  #5   pre-season
  16  Burnt Hills            NY     400   New York         16  Middleton              WI  -  unranked
  17  Springville            UT     410   Southwest        17  Kamiakin               WA  -  unranked
  18  Central Valley         WA     410   Northwest        18  Xavier                 CT  -  unranked
  19  Saint John's           MA     420   Northeast        19  Southlake Carroll      TX  -  unranked
  20  Loyola                 CA     425   California       20  Bolles                 FL  -  unranked (#8 South)
  21  Davis UT               UT     430   Southwest        21  Timpanogos             UT  -  #13 pre-season
  22  Staples                CT     440   Northeast        22  Green Hope             NC  -  #10 pre-season
  23  Pleasant Valley        IA     440   Heartland
  24  York                   IL     445   Midwest
  25  Brentwood Academy      TN     450   Southeast
  26  St. Anthony's          NY     450   New York
  27  Fairport               NY     455   New York
  28  Palmer Ridge           CO     460   Southwest
  29  Bozeman                MT     470   Northwest
  30  Council Rock North     PA     480   Northeast
  30* Flower Mound           TX*    480*  South
  30* Kingwood               TX*    480*  South
		

 

Boys Pre-Season Regional Projections 2018
 

Some viewers have asked me to do a Pre-season Regional "Guess" ... Below are some numbers from my worksheets by Region showing teams I considered.

Remember ... My main purpose is to identify teams for Nationals and not to do an in-depth evaluation for each region (New York is the only exception) ... That's why the list below is limited in some respects ... I looked at cross country performances from 2017 (from my databases only) and selected potential National teams ... I needed to find enough data on enough returning runners to make a guess without additional time-consuming searching (otherwise, teams get excluded).

I do not believe it is worth spending lots of time on the pre-season because we will find out soon enough who is good (and unexpectedly good) when the real season starts ... The pre-season lists help me identify teams to watch.

 

 
California **
    Great Oak               CA     50     California
    St. Francis (Mt View)   CA     55     California
    Dana Hills              CA     60     California
    Dublin-NCS              CA     85     California
    Poly (LB)-SS            CA     90     California

     ** Lots of graduations and lack of data make
        California uncertain ... Many teams COULD
        be placed below the top five.

Heartland
    Dowling Catholic        IA      90    Heartland
    Middleton               WI      90    Heartland
    Wayzata                 MN     110    Heartland
    Edina                   MN     120    Heartland
    Dubuque Hempstead       IA     150    Heartland
    St. Thomas Aquinas      KS     150    Heartland
    Pleasant Valley         IA     155    Heartland
    Olathe North            KS     160    Heartland
    Sioux Falls Lincoln     SD     165    Heartland
    Williston               ND     190    Heartland
    Willmar                 MN     200    Heartland

Midwest
    Wheaton Warrenville So  IL      80    Midwest
    Carmel                  IN     125    Midwest
    Plymouth                MI     125    Midwest
    Indianapolis Cathedral  IN     130    Midwest
    Fishers                 IN     135    Midwest
    Glenbard West           IL     140    Midwest
    Hudson                  OH     145    Midwest
    Mundelein               IL     150    Midwest
    Bloomington South       IN     175    Midwest
    Hinsdale Central        IL     180    Midwest
    Hilliard Davidson       OH     185    Midwest
    
New York (see NY Boys Projection Page)
    Burnt Hills             NY     100    New York
    Fayetteville-Manlius    NY     130    New York
    Saratoga                NY     200    New York
    Smithtown               NY     240    New York
    Corning                 NY     245    New York
    Shenendehowa            NY     280    New York
    Clarence                NY     355    New York
    Guilderland             NY     385    New York
    St. Anthony's           NY     390    New York
    Baldwinsville           NY     415    New York
    Liverpool               NY     420    New York
    Arlington               NY     465    New York
    Pearl River             NY     470    New York   

Northwest
    Kamiakin                WA      85    Northwest
    Central Valley          WA      85    Northwest
    Edmonds Woodway         WA      95    Northwest
    Lewis And Clark         WA     105    Northwest
    Camas                   WA     105    Northwest
    Jesuit                  OR     120    Northwest
    Rocky Mountain          ID     130    Northwest
    Idaho Falls             ID     145    Northwest
    Bozeman                 MT     160    Northwest

South
    Flower Mound            TX     110    South
    Smithson Valley         TX     125    South
    Kingwood                TX     140    South
    Southlake Carroll       TX     140    South
    Bentonville             AR     145    South
    Fayetteville            AR     145    South
    Grapevine               TX     150    South
    El Paso Eastwood        TX     150    South
    Klein                   TX     150    South
    The Woodlands           TX     155    South
    Wylie High              TX     160    South

Southeast
    Loudoun Valley          VA      72    Southeast
    Bolles                  FL     115    Southeast
    Cary                    NC     135    Southeast
    Weddington              NC     145    Southeast
    Severna Park            MD     150    Southeast
    Mountain Brook          AL     200    Southeast
    Salesianum School       DE     205    Southeast
    Tatnall                 DE     210    Southeast
    Huntsville              AL     215    Southeast
    St. Xavier (Lou)        KY     215    Southeast
    Siegel                  TN     220    Southeast
    Belen Jesuit Prep       FL     240    Southeast
    Vestavia Hills          AL     265    Southeast
    Scottsboro              AL     275    Southeast
    Hoover                  AL     290    Southeast

Southwest
    American Fork           UT      50    Southwest
    Dakota Ridge            CO      60    Southwest
    Niwot                   CO      80    Southwest
    Rock Canyon             CO      85    Southwest
    Skyridge                UT      88    Southwest
    Davis                   UT      90    Southwest
    Desert Hills            UT      95    Southwest
    Albuquerque Academy     NM     110    Southwest

Northeast
    Bishop Hendricken       RI      85    Northeast
    Christian Brothers      NJ      90    Northeast
    Xavier                  CT      95    Northeast
    Haddonfield Mem.        NJ     110    Northeast
    La Salle Academy        RI     120    Northeast
    North Allegheny         PA     140    Northeast
    LaSalle College         PA     155    Northeast
    Wellesley               MA     155    Northeast
    Downingtown West        PA     180    Northeast
    Morris Hills            NJ     185    Northeast