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Pre-Race Comments
... A bunch of teams are in contention for
a podium spot ... Very little separates Summit, Naperville North,
Yorkville, Mountain Vista, Great Oak, and Wayzata ... and
the manner in which this race usually
plays-out, other teams could make the podium ... Very good
team race .
Some Individual Team Comments:
Summit OR ...
Summit has performed well all season ... NXR Regional and State
Meet speed ratings placed Summit 1st and 2nd, respectively, in the NXN
field of 22 teams ... Summit gets the #1 spot above because they
are an Oregon school not far from Portland that should help with fan
support and weather acclimation ... also because they won NRX Northwest
impressively over two good teams (Jesuit and Boise Senior).
Naperville
North IL ... Naperville North finished 2nd at NXN
last year, 10th in 2016, 14th in 2015 and 4th in 2014 ... Naperville North performs
consistently at a high level ... An obvious contender to win the race.
Yorkville IL ...
Yorkville has had a close rivalry with Naperville North all
season ... Yorkville beat Naperville North at Roy Griak
MN, but lost to them subsequently at Naperville Twilight, States and NXR
Midwest (all close scores) ... Yorkville finished 18th at NXN
last year, but expect them to do much better this year ... and possibly
even win.
Mountain Vista CO ...
Mountain Vista finished 6th at NXN last year ... and this year
Mountain Vista is capable of winning.
Wayzata MN ...
Like last year,
Wayzata has been improving all season and is a legitimate
contender ... Wayzata beat Fayetteville-Manlius
to win NXN 2013 ... They won NXR Heartland in a close contest with
Edina, and I think Wayzata may have a very good performance
at Glendoveer this year.
Great Oak CA ...
Great Oak finished 8th at NXN last year, 3rd in 2016 and 2015, and 2nd in 2014 ... Great Oak is very good again
this year ... Great Oak
has performed well at the NXN course at Glendoveer most years,
so look for another good performance by Great Oak this year ...
Definitely a podium contending team.
Claremont CA ...
Claremont finished 9th at NXN last year (only 8 points behind
Great Oak) ... Claremont has raced well all season, including
a nice win over Liverpool at the Manhattan Invitational.
Boise Senior ...
Boise Senior is the top-projected At-Large selection ... they
finished a close 3rd to Jesuit at NXR Northwest ... Boise
Senior beat Great Oak at the Bob Firman Invitational.
Saratoga Springs NY ...
Saratoga won the initial NXN (NTN) National race in 2004 at
Portland Meadows ... at NRX New York which was won by Saratoga
(by 2 points over FM), Saratoga showed good team
consistency at a national level (a nice improvement from early season
races) ... Saratoga has a low number in top runner Kelsey
Chmiel (2nd at NXN last year) and good performances at the #4 and #5
scoring positions could improve their projected finish.
Fayetteville-Manlius NY
... Fayetteville-Manlius has won 11 of the last 12 NXN National
Championships ... But Fayetteville-Manlius is not as strong this
year as in previous years ... I was wondering if FM would even
make the NXN field, but they came through in typical FM fashion
... If FM runs well at NXN at all five scoring positions (as they
often do), FM has a legitimate shot at making the podium ... it
will require that some teams not have their best race (but
that also happens at NXN a lot) ... Don't be surprised if FM
improves on the projection above.
Edina MN ...
Edina finished 11th at NXN last year ... Edina lost to
Wayzata by only 8 points at NXR Heartland and 12 points at Minnesota
States ... could definitely improve on the projection above.
Jesuit OR ...
I picked Jesuit to be one of the top teams nationally in
pre-season projections and they have performed very well ... At the time
I made the pre-season projection, I did not realize that one of the top
Jesuit girls had transferred to Summit (otherwise,
Summit would have been projected higher) ... Jesuit is
running NXN in their hometown of Portland, and that should help.
Battle Mountain CO ...
Just like last year, Battle Mountain came on strong at the end of
the season ... they finished an excellent 3rd at NXN last year
(bettering their projection by a lot).
Vista Murietta CA ...
Speed ratings indicate Vista Murietta could finish very well at
NXN ... but I wonder if they can perform at the California State Meet
level at Glendoveer.
Liverpool NY ...
Liverpool finished 13th at NXN last year ... If all five scorers
perform well, they will better their projection above.
Individual Race Comments:
This year's race is once again deep
and talented ... 14 girls have a speed rating of 150 or higher ... As can be seen in the list below
(best speed ratings), the majority of top runners in this
race are competing as individuals, but a fair number are running on a team.
Katelyn Tuohy is the odds-on favorite
entering the race ... she is undefeated again in 2018 and has the highest
individual speed rating in the nation (177) ... The new At-Large
individual selections landed one top national runner, Ericka
Vanderlende, who will also be running at Foot Locker along with NXN
qualifiers Emily Covert, London Culbreath, Katelynn
Hart, Taylor Ewert, Brynn Brown and Alex Morris
... Top Foot Locker runners who will not be at NXN include
Sydney Masciarelli, Marlee Starliper, Grace Connolly,
Abby Vanderkooi, Jaden Theis, Abby Loveys and
Adelyn Ackley.
I expect
Katelyn Tuohy will set a fast early pace and open a lead on the
field early ... if 100% healthy,
Katelyn Tuohy will probably win handily ... She could likely
break her course record depending on weather and course conditions ...
The girl's race is first this year and that should help the girls' times
compared to last year when the boy's race chewed up the course somewhat
for the girls.
A bunch of runners are serious contenders for a top position ... This could be a really good race with
lots of girls vying for a top five placing ... This is a really good
top-quality race.
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... Well, NXN is like a top Stakes-Grade horse race where all the horses
are really good ... and often it is harder to pick who will finish
last than who will finish first.
.... Note:
I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the
predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off"
races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run
well).