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Pre-Race Comments
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All 13 years of NXN have demonstrated that most teams will
NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will
have speed ratings lower than the individual runner
projections below (this is expected because national competition on
a new course is a
new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling,
time-changes, etc) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses
(typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for
projecting relative team scores.
The overall morning-line team scores
projected above are
based (in part) on the individual ratings below ... There
were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning
ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to
approximate an overall-combined rating ... and incorporate possible
inconsistencies into final projected team scores.
Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race
(runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why
predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms
of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever
possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ...
Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in
predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and
frustrating )
... Notice the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and
State Meet ratings above.
General Team Comments:
The morning-line at most horse tracks
considers three factors: (1) past performance history of each horse, (2)
an opinion of what people are likely to bet, and (3) a handicapping
opinion of the person making the morning-line.
The Boys Race at NXN Nationals 2017
looks competitive ... Nearly half the field has a legitimate
shot at making the podium on their best performance ... I can
see four teams as possible
winners under most scenarios ... Others do have a chance ...
Great Oak, Loudoun Valley, Mountain Vista and
Springville are the teams most likely to win, and the morning-line
scores are shown above.
Great Oak is the morning-line
favorite based on team depth and consistency ... Mountain Vista
also has excellent team depth ... Loudoun Valley and
Springville are very strong on the top-end, and their team
performance will likely depend on performance at the #4 and/or #5
positions.
NXN Nationals is a special race because
all 22 teams are top national teams ... There are no poor teams in this
race ... Ever year I get comments from fans of teams projected to finish
at or near the bottom ... "How can you pick a team this good to finish
that bad"
... Well, NXN is like a top Stakes-Grade horse race where all the horses
are really good ... and often it is harder to pick who will finish
last than who will finish first.
As noted above, some of the teams
are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams ...
This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.
Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and
predicting the exact
order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note:
I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the
predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off"
races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run
well).
Remember ... Teams performing at
(or above) performance levels getting them to NXN Nationals typically jump up
significantly in projected finish-positions.
Individual Team Comments:
Great Oak CA ...
Great Oak has four runners at the 180 (or plus) speed rating
level and the other three are upper 170s to mid-170s ... That depth is a
big advantage at NXN and makes Great Oak the morning-line
favorite.
Loudoun
Valley VA ...
Loudoun Valley has two high-stick finishers that could finish top
10 in the team scoring and two other runners at (or near) to 180 speed
rating level ... a good performance by the #5 scorer (low 170s) could
definitely make Loudoun Valley the NXN champion.
Mountain
Vista CO ...
Mountain Vista is the #2 team based on NXR Regional scoring, only
10 points behind Great Oak (and Great Oak's "regional" is their
State Meet which is actually an advantage for them because it is their
State Meet) ...
Mountain Vista is deep and they have shown major improvement
throughout the season ... The question is "can they duplicate the
strength shown at their NXR regional meet?".
Springville
UT ...
Springville is very strong at the top-end ... It is possible they
could have two team scorers in the top 5 or 6 ... The #5 scoring
position becomes important.
Downers Grove North
IL ...
Downers Grove North reminds me a bit of Neuqua Valley from last
year ... a strong consistent team, but no high-stick finisher to start
the team score with low number ... To a certain degree, it depends on
the performance of other teams (which as suggested above, may have some
weaknesses) ... a good team performance places
Downers Grove North high in the finish.
Eleanor
Roosevelt CA ...
Eleanor Roosevelt has race very well in California and they won
the Nike Portland Invitational earlier in the season ... an obvious
podium contender.
Wayzata MN
... Wayzata finished 10th at NXN last year and 14th in 2015 ... Wayzata is
very good at peaking for this meet ... I give them a big chance at
making the podium this year.
Fayetteville-Manlius NY ...
The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto-qualifier to
NXN the last ten years! ... Fayetteville-Manlius won NXN
2014 ... This season, Garrett Brennan has come-on very quickly to become
a top runner (191 speed rating at NXR) and give FM some high
finishers ... I was not expecting Fayetteville-Manlius to be as
high as 8th in morning-line a couple of weeks back.
St. Francis
Mountain View CA ...
St. Fancis Mountain View could be the surprise team to make the
podium ... Not sure how well they will run at Glendoveer, but they are a
very good team!
Individual Race Comments:
The table below lists the top runners at
NXN 2017 by approximate best speed rating ...
Once again, the majority of runners listed below qualified as individuals (not on a
team competing at NXN).
Brodey Hasty enters the race as
the favorite ... he finished 3rd last year and has been exceptionally
good in both track and XC since that time ... It will take a very good
performance to beat him.
This race has some really good runners
... runners capable of exceptional performances and challenging
Brodey Hasty for the top spot ... Danny Kilrea won Foot
Locker Midwest (with a 197 speed rating) ... James Mwaura
won NXR Northwest, has a 196 speed rating to his credit, and has
yet to be challenged seriously (he might be much faster with this
competition) ... Dustin Horter won NXR Midwest with a 196
speed rating ... Aidan Troutner (195 sped rating) is another
runner who could be better than previously shown ... LOTS of runners in
contention for a top five position.
Should be a good & interesting race.
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