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  Team Projections - NXN New York Qualifier 2015

Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 28, 2015

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the runners from each team as listed in the entries ... Projected Scores were posted on November 25, 2015 ....  ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 28, 2015

.... ACTUAL SCORES ADDED November 28, 2015

NOTE ...  the New York projections below were done very quickly ... But I doubt it would make much difference if spent more time evaluating these races ... I used the team runners listed in the entries

NXN-NY Info at:  http://www.runnerspace.com/nxnny

[ Club names with associated schools of NY Championship teams ]

 

[ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls NY ]

 

 Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Liverpool the favorite
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Liverpool               110     (03-A )     Liverpool                   77
 2   Fayetteville-Manlius    120     (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius       107
 3   East Aurora             139     (06-C )     East Aurora                109
 4   Pittsford Mendon        159     (05-B )     St. Anthony's              146
 5   St. Anthony's           161     (CHSAA)     Xavier                     153
 6   Xavier                  163     (CHSAA)     Pittsford Mendon           175
 7   Corning                 175     (04-A )     Guilderland                209
 8   Saratoga                251     (02-A )     Maine-Endwell              241
 9   Maine-Endwell           291     (04-B )     Mount Academy              247
 10  Guilderland             292     (02-A )     Corning                    260
 11  Ithaca                  298     (04-A )     Arlington                  270
 12  Arlington               302     (01-A )     Ithace                     284
 13  Mount Academy           357     (09-C )     Honeoye Falls-Lima         308
 14  Honeoye Falls-Lima      374     (05-B )     Sachem East                408
 15  Sachem East             385     (11-A )     Baldwinsville              421
 16  Baldwinsville           422     (03-A )     Somers                     432
 17  Northport               481     (11-A )     Northport                  466
 18  Syosset                 483     (08-A )     Manhasset                  497
 19  Somers                  501     (01-B )     Webster Thomas             513
 20  Webster Thomas          510     (05-A )     Commack                    567
 21  Commack                 529     (11-A )     Queensbury                 581
 22  Queensbury              567     (02-B )     Elmira                     611
 23  Suffern                 591     (01-A )     Franklin Academy           669
 24  Manhasset               609     (08-B )     Ward Melville              674
 25  Elmira District         658     (04-A )     Syosset                    696
 26  Franklin Academy        668     (10-B )     Suffern                    699
 27  Ward Melville           681     (11-A )     Williamsville South        791
 28  Williamsville South     819     (06-B )

		

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius, Liverpool, East Aurora and Pittsford Mendon skipped the NY Federation Meet ... St. Anthony's and Xavier had a great competition at Federations with St. Anthony's winning by only 2 points (and 3rd-place Guilderland was 127 points back) ... I suspect the week off will help the teams that skipped Feds, but that remains to be seen.

Liverpool edged FM at the sectional championship meet by 4 points and went on to win the State Class A race convincingly ... Liverpool also beat FM at Manhattan, but lost to FM at their league championship meet ... Both teams rate very close, but the edge goes to Liverpool entering the race.

The Fayetteville-Manlius guys have been an auto-qualifier to NXN the last seven years! ... Despite losing the sectional race, FM had three runners qualify for States as individuals ... two of the runners dropped-out of the State meet (Peter Ryan and Joe Walters) after sensing discomfort to some existing minor injuries ... How that plays outs in the NXN regional race remains to be seen.

Liverpool and FM are the two favorites for the auto-qualifying spots ... BUT East Aurora, St. Anthony's, Xavier and Pittsford Mendon are not that far behind ... One or two PR performances at the right positions could put any of those teams into contention.

East Aurora gets a slight advantage over the others when looking at best speed ratings over the season ... East Aurora did not over-extend themselves at sectionals due to slow muddy conditions ... East Aurora won comfortably at States on the difficult Monroe-Woodbury course which is not conducive to great speed team ratings, and they finished 2nd to Liverpool in the State Meet merge (ahead of Pittsford Mendon and Corning) .... and RememberEast Aurora and Liverpool tied in their head-to-head race at McQuaid with Liverpool getting the trophy based on a "Jesuit" tie-breaking rule even though East Aurora had the best 6th-man ... I give East Aurora a real legitimate chance of winning an auto-qualifying spot.

I wonder how much the Federation effort of St. Anthony and Xavier will effect this race?? ... it remains to be seen.

Number-wise, not much separates St. Anthony, Xavier and Pittsford Mendon ... and those numbers do put them within striking distance of the top teams.

Note to the 3rd and 4th place finishing teams ... Last four years -  It was apparent that the NXN At-Large Selection Committee was using performance at the NXN regional as a primary selection criteria with other criteria (performance at States and major invitational races) as secondary criteria ... I suspect that will continue this year ... So hopefully, the NY teams that finish 3rd and 4th will have really good performances.

It should also be noted that the NXN Northeast regional is being run at Bowdoin Park the same day (as normal) ... Hypothetically, let's assume that a "power-merge" is done by some committee with the top 6-8 teams from the NY and NE regions to compare strengths, especially for the teams that finished 3rd and 4th in the actual races ... Let's hope the NY teams do well.

Individual Race ... Although 4 of the top 10 NY guys are racing at Footlocker Northeast, this could be a very good battle between Ben Petrella, Aidan Tooker, Kenny Vasbinder and others ... The challenging State Meet course at Monroe-Woodbury was good to Ben Petrella ... Aidan Tooker had an excellent performance on this course (Bowdoin Park) last week at Federations.

 
The Top-Ranked NY Runners:
1   Ben Petrella          12   03-A    Liverpool              194       NXN Team
2   Aidan Tooker          12   02-A    Saratoga               193       NXN Team
3   Noah Affolder         11   03-B    Carthage               192    (at Footlocker)
4   Conor Lundy           12   CHS     Fordham Prep           190    (at Footlocker)
5   Kenny Vasbinder       12   06-C    East Aurora            190       NXN Team
6   Noah Carey            11   02-A    Guilderland            189       NXN Team
7   Donny Glavin          12   05-A    McQuaid                189     NXN Individual
8   Nathan Lawler         10   05-B    Pittsford Mendon       188       NXN Team
9   Dan Schaffer          12   04-B    Maine-Endwell          187       NXN Team
10  Eion Nohilly          12   01-B    John Jay CR            187    (at Footlocker)
11  Jonathan Lauer        11   11-A    Sachem North           185     NXN Individual
12  Peter Ryan            12   03-A    FM                     184       NXN Team
13  Peter Rindfuss        12   06-B    Hamburg                184     NXN Individual
14  Jake Johnson          12   02-A    Colonie                184     NXN Individual
15  Christopher Tibbetts  11   11-A    Sachem North           184     NXN Individual
16  Paul Dellinger        11   05-B    Brighton               184        -----
17  Ty Brownlow           11   03-A    Liverpool              183       NXN Team
18  Patrick Perry         11   03-A    FM                     183       NXN Team
19  Frederick Buckholtz   12   CHS     St. Anthonys           182       NXN Team
20  Sam Affolder          9    03-B    Carthage               182        -----
21  David Leff            11   03-A    West Genesee           182    (at Footlocker)
22  Stevie Schulz         11   03-A    Liverpool              182       NXN Team
23  Paul Nichols          12   02-A    Shaker                 182     NXN Individual
24  Matt Adolph           12   09-A    Warwick                182        -----
25  Ryan Kutch            12   CHS     St. Anthonys           182       NXN Team
26  Kevin Hazelwood       12   01-B    Brewster               181     NXN Individual
27  Ryan Dearie           12   CHS     St. Anthonys           181       NXN Team
28  Jake Avery            11   04-A    Ithaca                 181       NXN Team
29  Connor Doran          11   06-A    Lockport               181     NXN Individual
30  Christian Raslowsky   12   CHS     Xavier                 180       NXN Team
31  Peter Kane            12   04-A    Corning                180       NXN Team

 

 Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius odds-on favorite again
 

                           Projected                                     ACTUAL
     School                  Score   Section     School                   Score
     ====================   =======  =======     =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius     42     (03-A )     Fayetteville-Manlius        38
 2   Saratoga                 90     (02-A )     Saratoga                    80
 3   Shenendehowa            144     (02-A )     North Rockland             117
 4   East Aurora             145     (06-C )     Sachem East                146
 5   North Rockland          155     (01-A )     East Aurora                164
 6   Sachem East             225     (11-A )     Shenendehowa               193
 7   John Jay Cross River    232     (01-B )     Webster Thomas             194
 8   Webster Thomas          235     (05-A )     Elmira                     199
 9   Shoreham Wading River   236     (11-B )     John Jay Cross River       225
 10  Guilderland             239     (02-A )     Guilderland                238
 11  Elmira                  255     (04-A )     Ithaca                     279
 12  North Shore             260     (08-B )     Maple grove                308
 13  Maple Grove             330     (06-D )     North Shore                324
 14  Ithaca                  333     (04-A )     Westhill-Ludden            338
 15  Pittsford Mendon        355     (05-B )     Pittsford-Mendon           366
 16  Sweet Home              398     (06-B )
 17  Westhill-Ludden         400     (03-B )
		
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite to win once again ... FM and East Aurora skipped Federations to prepare for this race.

Fayetteville-Manlius has been impressive all season, and there is no reason to suspect that will change ... FM beat Saratoga by 49 points at States with only nine teams in the race ... I suspected the Monroe-Woodbury course would be good for FM, and not so good for Saratoga ... But Bowdoin Park is different, and both teams have run well at Bowdoin in the past ... so I'm expecting Saratoga will run well.

Shenendehowa is a question to me ... Shenendehowa ran very nicely at the McQuaid Invitational where they beat Centreville Ohio and East Aurora by 75-81-96 ... Centreville won the NXN Midwest regional ... Should Shenendehowa finish 3rd, they will likely be an "At-Large" selection since they beat a regional winner in a major invitational ... BUT Shenendehowa has not raced as well since McQuaid ... They finished 7th at Federations, but I doubt that was an all-out effort ... If Shenendehowa races as well as they did at McQuaid, they will likely be 3rd unless one of the top two falter ... If this was a betting race, I'm not sure what I would do with Shenendehowa.

East Aurora and North Rockland are very good teams ... North Rockland races well at Bowdoin Park (Section 1 teams use the course all season long) ... The performance by East Aurora at the McQuaid Invitational is worthy of many NXN qualifiers.

I suspect the 3rd-place finishing team will be in running for an "At-Large" NXN bid if they race decently (especially Shenendehowa).

Individual Race ... Jessica Lawson (Corning) has opted for Footlocker this season, but most top NY runners will be at NXN ... The top 5 finishers not on a qualifying team earn a trip to NXN Nationals ... Looks very competitive for both the win and the qualifying spots ... Two Bowdoin Park course record holders are in the race - Mary Hennelly (Suffern) set the 8th-grade record at Feds (18:11.5) and Brooke Rauber (Tully) set the 7th-grade record at Feds (18:35.6).

 
The Top-Ranked NY Runners:
1   Jessica Lawson        11   04-A    Corning                155    (at Footlocker)
2   Abbey Wheeler         12   04-A    Elmira District        149       NXN Team
3   Kelsey Chmiel         9    02-A    Saratoga               149       NXN Team
4   Claire Walters        8    03-A    FM                     148       NXN Team
5   Kaitlyn Neal          12   03-A    FM                     147       NXN Team
6   Diana Vizza           12   08-B    North Shore            145       NXN Team
7   Mary Hennelly         8    01-A    Suffern                144     NXN Individual
8   Katelyn Tuohy         8    01-A    North Rockland         143       NXN Team
9   Carly Benson          10   03-A    West Genesee           142    (at Footlocker)
10  Sophia Tasselmyer     12   06-C    East Aurora            141       NXN Team
11  Sage Hurta            12   03-D    Hamilton               141    (at Footlocker)  
12  Alex Harris           11   01-A    North Rockland         140       NXN Team
13  Emily Bini            8    02-A    Guilderland            140       NXN Team
14  Julia Stevenson       12   AIS     Hackley                139     NXN Individual
15  Kathryn Munks         12   09-A    Monroe-Woodbury        139     NXN Individual
16  Lauren Chapey         12   01-A    Mamaroneck             138     NXN Individual
17  Kaycie Saucier        12   10-D    Norwood-Norfolk        138        -----
18  Rebecca Walters       10   03-A    FM                     136       NXN Team
19  Palmer Madsen         10   03-A    FM                     135       NXN Team
20  Brooke Rauber         7    03-D    Tully                  135     NXN Individual
21  Samantha Levy         12   03-A    FM                     135       NXN Team
22  Sophia Ryan           10   03-A    FM                     135       NXN Team
23  Reilly Siebert        10   08-A    Syosset                135    (at Footlocker)
24  Peyton Engborg        10   02-A    Saratoga               134       NXN Team
25  Alexandra DeCicco     12   11-A    Sachem East            134       NXN Team
26  Paris Fenoff          9    02-A    Saratoga               133       NXN Team
27  Danielle Jordan       12   02-A    Shenendehowa           132       NXN Team
28  Jennie Prial          11   09-A    Warwick                132     NXN Individual
29  Katherine Lee         10   11-B    Shoreham Wading R      132       NXN Team
30  Megan Reilly          12   09-A    Warwick                132        -----
31  Fiona Danieu          12   06-C    East Aurora            131       NXN Team
32  Eva Scott             11   02-B    Burnt Hills            131        -----
33  Samantha Peterman     11   06-B    Sweet Home             130       NXN Team
34  Kathryn Tenney        9    02-A    Colonie                130        -----
35  Maryanna Lansing      12   02-A    Shaker                 130     NXN Individual

 

 New York NXN Club Names &  Associated School
 
BOYS CHAMPIONSHIP RACE

JAC                       -   Arlington
Baldwinsville Harriers    -   Baldwinsville
Commack XC                -   Commack
Corning Track Club        -   Corning
Aurora Runners            -   East Aurora
Express Running Club      -   Elmira
Manlius XC                -   Fayetteville-Manlius
Malone Track Club         -   Franklin Academy
Flying Dutch              -   Guilderland
HFL Cougars XC            -   Honeoye Falls-Lima
Finger Lakes XC           -   Ithaca
Liverpool Warriors        -   Liverpool
Maine-Endwell XC Club     -   Maine-Endwell
Set XC                    -   Manhasset
Mount XC                  -   Mount Academy
Cow Harbor TC             -   Northport
Vikings XC                -   Pittsford-Mendon
Adirondack Runners        -   Queensbury
Sachem East Running Club  -   Sachem East
Kinetic                   -   Saratoga
Tuskers XC                -   Somers
Assisi XC                 -   St. Anthony's
Suffern TC                -   Suffern
Syosset XC                -   Syosset
Ward Titans               -   Ward Melville
Titan Ridge Runners       -   Webster Thomas
Will. South XC            -   Williamsville South
Knights                   -   Xavier

GIRLS CHAMPIONSHIP RACE

Aurora Runners            -   East Aurora
Express Running Club      -   Elmira
Manlius XC                -   Fayetteville-Manlius
Flying Dutch              -   Guilderland
Finger Lakes XC           -   Ithaca
JJXRXC                    -   John Jay Cross River
Bemus Point Runs          -   Maple Grove
Lady Raiders XC           -   North Rockland
Glen Head Running Club    -   North Shore
Vikings XC                -   Pittsford Mendon
Sachem Spiked Shoe Club   -   Sachem East
Kinetic                   -   Saratoga
Legacy Track Club         -   Shenendehowa
Wildcat Athletic Club     -   Shoreham Wading River
Sweet Home Track Club     -   Sweet Home
Titan Ridge Runners       -   Webster Thomas
Syracuse Track Club       -   Westhill-Ludden