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Pre-Season XC 2014

GIRLS Teams - New York State 2014

Bill Meylan (July 23, 2014)

 

[ Combined Teams ] .. [ Class A ] .. [ Class B ] .. [ Class C ] .. [ Class D ] .. [ CHSAA - AIS - PSAL ]

Girls - Potential Top Overall Contenders & Class Contenders

Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.

What good are pre-season rankings?
 (1) a fun topic of conversation during the summer
 (2) beneficial in gathering background information for the upcoming season

Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.

To a large extent, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2013 XC season into 2014 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below ... With rare exceptions, I ignored last year's modified runners.

I limited the Combined Class list to 35 teams after starting with 70+ teams.

Remember ... this list is just an informational starting point ... I posted scores by individual class because some people are interested ... A lot can change between mid-July and November.

 

 New York GIRLS Teams - Combined Classes 2014

                   Pre-Season Projection - New York Girls Team Contenders - 2014


         ---------------------------------------
              Scores Using Top 35 Teams
         ---------------------------------------
                                         Section-
         Team                   Score     Class
         ---------------------  -----    --------

    1    Fayetteville-Manlius    115     (03-A )
    2    Saratoga                170     (02-A )
    3    Elmira District         220     (04-A )
    4    Burnt Hills             290     (02-B )
    5    Shenendehowa            310     (02-A )
    6    Suffern                 340     (01-A )
    7    Queensbury              380     (02-B )
    8    Corning                 385     (04-A )
    9    Colonie                 405     (02-A )
    10   Webster Thomas          406     (05-A )
    11   East Aurora             410     (06-C )
    12   John Jay CR             415     (01-B )
    13   Cornwall                425     (09-B )
    14   Rush-Henrietta          430     (05-A )
    15   Pearl River             435     (01-B )
    16   Bronxville              440     (01-C )
    17   Shaker                  450     (02-A )
    18   Monroe-Woodbury         480     (09-A )
    19   Pittsford Mendon        495     (05-B )
    20   North Shore             496     (08-B )
    21   Sweet Home              497     (06-B )
    22   Holy Names              510     (02-B )
    23   Liverpool               545     (03-A )
    24   Clarence                545     (06-A )
    25   Garden City             560     (08-B )
    26   Guilderland             560     (02-A )
    27   Warwick Valley          580     (09-A )
    28   Syosset                 585     (08-A )
    29   West Genesee            590     (03-A )
    30   Ursuline                600     (01-A )
    31   Northport               615     (11-A )
    32   Penfield                650     (05-A )
    33   Westhill-Ludden         660     (03-B )
    34   Fox Lane                670     (01-A )
    35   Hilton                  680     (05-A )

Where did the scores come from? ... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2013 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed ratings were altered based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers because I wanted to ... and then adjusted final scores for various reasons.

Note ... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team abilities in a combined race ... I included 35 teams to show some depth.

In General ... Fayetteville-Manlius was the seven-time defending National champion entering 2013 and they finished 2nd at NXN Nationals in 2013 ... They return 6 of the 7 runners who competed at NXN including top runner Annika Avery ... Fayetteville-Manlius will be the #1 ranked team in the nation entering the 2014 cross country season when considering potential performance at NXN.

Fayetteville-Manlius loses just one State Meet/NXN runner to graduation (Alana Pearl) ... That leaves a core of six returning runners (five are profiled in the Girls Individual Profiles) ... FM has other good runners as well ... In addition, Coach Bill Aris has an excellent record of cross country runner improvement to the elite level from one year to the next plus a successful record of development via "new blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time XC runners, etc) ... Therefore, Fayetteville-Manlius is likely to have good depth.

Saratoga took a big hit in graduation and transfer losses entering the 2013 XC season ... However, the young Saratoga team still finished 2nd at States and the NXN Regional qualifier, and then took 15th at NXN Nationals despite their youth (three 8th-graders in their five scorers) ... Saratoga could be surprisingly strong this season ,,, They will be nationally ranked when I post my National Team Rankings in August ... additional information on Saratoga is posted below in the Class A section.

Emira could be very strong as well ... They have a top runner in Abbey Wheeler who finished 17th at NXN Nationals (best of all NY girls) ... and several runners may show significant XC improvement based on track performances ... Elmira is definitely a team to watch.

Burnt Hills is typically deep in talent, and that appears to be the case again.

Additional comments and information are given below by class ... Class consideration is important in the pre-season because it impacts far more runners than projections intended for Federation Championships or the NXN-NY regional qualifier.

 

 

 Class A - Girls ... Pre-Season 2014
 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Fayetteville-Manlius     85      (03-A )
   Saratoga                135      (02-A )
   Elmira District         160      (04-A )
   Shenendehowa            205      (02-A )
   Suffern                 225      (01-A )
   Corning                 235      (04-A )
   Colonie                 260      (02-A )
   Webster Thomas          275      (05-A )
   Rush-Henrietta          305      (05-A )
   Shaker                  310      (02-A )
   Monroe-Woodbury         315      (09-A )
   Clarence                365      (06-A )
   Liverpool               365      (03-A )
   Guilderland             380      (02-A )
   Warwick Valley          395      (09-A )
   Syosset                 395      (08-A )
   West Genesee            410      (03-A )
   Northport               425      (11-A )
   Penfield                440      (05-A )
   Ursuline                445      (01-A )
   Hilton                  470      (05-A )
   Fox Lane                495      (01-A )
   Fairport                505      (05-A )
   Arlington               550      (01-A )
   Baldwinsville           560      (03-A )
   North Rockland          560      (01-A )
Fayetteville-Manlius is, once again, the defending NY State Class A Champion ... As noted above in the Combine Class section, Fayetteville-Manlius returns an excellent core of runners ... Expected improvement from existing runners and likely additions of talent via "new blood" (e.g. soccer transfers, first time varsity XC runners, etc) makes Fayetteville-Manlius the favorite to repeat as Class A champion.

Saratoga had an infusion of young talent which helped them perform nicely in 2013 ... additional young talent may help again in 2014 ... and improvement amongst existing runners could be significant (see table below) ...... At the Section 2 Outdoor State qualifier in track, Saratoga had 6 underclass girls run between 10:08 and 10:58 in the 3000 meter race including two 7th-graders who ran 10:36 and 10:49 .... At a July road race, the Silks and Satins 5K (certified), Saratoga had 8 girls run between 18:06 and 18:53 (results posted on my Odds & Ends 2014 XC web-page) ... Saratoga could be very good.

Elmira District has a very good top runner (Abbey Wheeler) and several girls who could show significant XC improvement based on track track performance.

Shenendehowa, Suffern and Corning all look good ... Corning has the top-rated runner in NY State (Jessica Lawson) ... Suffern has some very talented runners (such as Kate Zendell, Rachel Ludwikowski and Kamyrn McIntosh).

 

Some Class A Returning Runners by Team 

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2013
                           ---------  --------------------------------
Fayetteville-Manlius
  Annika Avery          12    144     142 147 137 145 134 143 142 143  ... 1500m (4:37.00)
  Jenna Farrell         11    134     131 131 136 135 136 129 129 128  ... 3000m (10:09.09)
  Jessica Howe          12    130     125 130 135 113 133 124 107 110  ... 1 Mile (5:09.98)
  Samantha Levy         11    120+    107 118 104 103 101 103          ... 3000m (10:15.62)
  Megan Menz            11    123     124 125 119 122 120 111 118 110
  Olivia Ryan           12    113     97 120 116 111 107 107 105 84
  Sophie Ryan           9     109     98 121 86 80                     ... 1500m (4:57.94)
  Reilly Madsen         10    109     98 107 108 110 120 116 112 99    ... 3000m (10:58.86)
  Mackenzie Pierie      12    101     95 102 104 97 89

Saratoga
  Samantha Vetter       9     124      118 125 121 128 123 129 106 104 118
  Estela Smith          12    120+     120 120 112 113 112 123 110 87 106  ... 3000m (10:06.41)
  Spencer Hayes         12    119      116 121 115 123 108 120 108 115 120 ... 3000m (10:23.45)
  Carley Vetter         9     117      106 121 108 118 112 120 105 117     ... 3000m (10:45.04)
  Peyton Engborg        9     116      111 118 101 121 110 117 114 120 109 ... 3000m (10:33.56)
  Keellyn Cummings      9     108+     91 112 100 104 115                  ... 3000m (10:41.60)
  Gabrielle Robens      11    104+     90 94 109 109 107 113 96 102        ... 3000m (10:34.24)
  Amelia Mahoney        10    99+      100 102 79 76 90 ... 1 Mile (5:10.24, 4th at National-Frosh)
  Lena Ruggles          9     85+      85                                  ... 3000m (10:58.54)
  Mariellen Penzer      10    85+      87 82                               ... 2000mSt (7:17.03)
  Megan Morin           8     ---      --------                            ... 3000m (10:49.25)
  Paris Fenoff          8     ---      --------                            ... 3000m (10:36.05)
  Olivia Morrow  ???    11    112      112 99                           

Elmira District
  Abbey Wheeler         11    142      143 141 139 142 129 136 137 147 132 .. 3000m (9:54.22)
  Jessica Thatcher      12    118+     119 115 119 107 113 113 118 106 99 ... 3000m (10:14.30)
  Mackenzie Tubbs       10    112      113 106 114 106 115 110 104 106    ... 3000m (10:37.83)
  Khiere Ashley         12    112      115 109 110 109 107 106 112 98 93  ... 1500m (4:50.25)
  Jordynn Kurcoba       12    101      105 80 101 109 101 101 96 81 84
  Olivia Riley          10    86+      70 79 93                           ... 3000m (10:30.86)
  Catharine Mewes       12    77+      77 71 79 78 71                     ... 1500m (4:48.13)

Shenendehowa
  Danielle Jordan       11    125      129 118 121 122 119 119 114    ... 3000m (10:20.66)
  Julia Zachgo          10    116      116                            ... 1500m (4:46.32)
  Emily Crounse         11    115      103 118 117 111 112
  Caroline Rusch        12    111      110 114 103 101 103            ... 3000m (10:53.08)
  Sarah Duclos          12    104      99 110 94 90 93
  Erin Carley           12    97       97 100 88 68 82
  Ife Adelugba          12    95       88 103 83 67 85
  Caroline Hartman      11    94       85 96 84 86 103

Suffern
  Kate Zendell          12    132      133 118 134 134 117 122 132 134 137
  Rachel Ludwikowski    10    132      122 137 132 123 128 117 111 128 127
  Elina Breton          12    102      99 104 102 95 104 106 98 94 94 85
  Kamryn McIntosh       10    106+     35 67 118 106 119 107 99 99 108 68
  Anna Breton           12    103      58 94 107 100 116 108 104 99 100 95 ... 3000m (10:36.13)
  Hannah Consiglio      12    60       62 44 66 58 67 50 26 56 39
  Cassandra Duitz       12    59       57 62 54 41 54

Corning
  Jessica Lawson        10    144      141 145 147 141 136 143 137 145 139
  Natalie Rogus         12    110      103 113 108 110 103 99 95     ... 3000m (10:21.00)
  Madeline Ustanik      12    108      102 109 100 113 99 103 108    ... 3000m (10:32.49)
  Katie Butler          12    106      98 109 108 96 93 105 86       ... 3000m (10:31.17)
  Maeve Holman          10    101      94 100 106 94 95 97 95
  Rhian O'Dell          11    92       84 97 92 93 88 89 78 85 66 77
  Pearl Cooper          10    75       76 75 65 60 78 74 55 75       ... 1500m (5:02.34)

Colonie
  Bellame Bower         11    118      119 111 121 117 118 117 122 114 110 106 106 ... 3000m (10:31.10)
  Amanda Chambers       10    115      103 117 119 116 116 118 113 102 110 108     ... 3000m (10:34.12)
  Kathryn Tenney        8     113      114 105 117 112 99 111 91 91                ... 3000m (10:53.35)
  Marilyn O'Brien       9     105      98 109 105 100 99 105 87 82                 ... 2000mSt (7:24.10)
  Carolyn Pellegrini    11    98       90 102 99 96 91 98 81 75 93 90              ... 1500m (5:00.08)
  Samantha Pellegrini   9     97       98 97 94 90 91 71
  Shannen Kerin         11    96       90 92 96 96 96 106 80 88 96 100

Webster Thomas
  Amanda Vestri         10    127      123 125 128 130 122   ... 3000m (10:36.47)
  Claire Ashton         10    116      113 115 118 117 114   ... 3000m (10:49.22)
  Ellie Songer          11    116      108 116 118 112
  Brittany Mechler      12    104      98 104 104 108 90     ... 3000m (10:57.68)
  Natalie Neamtu        10    98       98                    ... 1500m (4:49.84)
  Alexandra Carpenter   11    90       94 85 77 72           ... 3000m (10:59.57)
  Abby Valachovic       11    89       81 86 94 84 77
  Alena Wisniewski      10    78       78
		

 

 Class B - Girls ... Pre-Season 2014
 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Burnt Hills             120      (02-B )
   Queensbury              135      (02-B )
   John Jay Cross River    140      (01-B )
   Cornwall                160      (09-B )
   Pearl River             165      (01-B )
   Pittsford Mendon        180      (05-B )
   North Shore             180      (08-B )
   Sweet Home              180      (06-B )
   Holy Names              190      (02-B )
   Garden City             210      (08-B )
   Westhill-Ludden         255      (03-B )
   Honeoye Falls-Lima      260      (05-B )
   Hamburg                 300      (06-B )
   Miller Place            315      (11-B )
   Tappan Zee              320      (01-B )
   Jamesville Dewitt       325      (03-B )

Burnt Hills is projected as the top team in Class B because they have very good depth ... in addition, Janelle Rothacker (who ran 4:37.81 in the 1500m) could show significant XC improvement.

Queensbury is the defending Class B champion and they return 5 of their top six runners from States  ... Annual Repeat - Once again, one of the good Section 2 teams will stay at home during States because only the sectional winner qualifies.

John Jay Cross River was the surprise winner at NY Federations last year ... and they lose only one scorer to graduation ... At this point, Class B looks like a toss-up between the Section 2 winner and John Jay Cross River.

Other teams are not that far behind the top 3 .... John Jay Cross River still needs to beat Pearl River in Section 1, and that's not easy .... Cornwall, Pittsford Mendon, North Shore, Sweet Home and Holy Names have talent and potential ... seems fairly even-up to me at this point.

 

Some Class B Returning Runners by Team 

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2013
                           ---------  --------------------------------
Burnt Hills
  Janelle Rothacker     12    110+     108 110                     ... 1500m (4:37.81)
  Eva Scott             10    118      110 122 113 114             ... 3000m (10:35.61)
  Jordan Casey          12    114      106 105 120 112 114 108     ... 2000mSt (7:46.92)
  Emily Digman          11    112      105 115 106 114 110 113 88  ... 2000mSt (7:25.10)
  Marina Jerry          11    110      105 89 120 97 107 105
  Alexis Scott          12    109      103 105 114 107 104 102     ... 1500m (4:52.36)
  Allison Fernandez     12    105      105 105 101 101 95          ... 800m (2:21.74)
  Lindsay Bachus        11    103      100 103 107 100 88 80
  Skylar Sweet          10    101      90 96 105 105
  Sarah Killeen         12    98       80 103 100 99 85
  Kaila Dicaprio        9     97       96 97
  Mary McGuiness        11    96       97 93 95 81

Queensbury
  Emily Guinther        12    120      115 117 123 125 111 125 89 112 117 112 122
  Sherri Metcalfe       11    116      118 111 115 104 116 114 109 118 105 95 100 ... 3000m (10:44.54)
  Danielle Soprano      9     113      102 113 115 110 107                        ... 3000m (10:55.68)
  Alexis Bartlett       9     107      109 103 106 102 103 82                     ... 800m (2:24.62)
  Emily Atamanchuk      9     98       99 99 95 93 89
  Kathryn Ackner        12    94       72 88 105 84 94 84
  Rachael Guinther      12    91       72 80 96 98 90 70 95 102 101
  Emma Hayes            10    86       86 85
  Emily Crotty          11    83       79 68 89 81 81

John Jay Cross River
  Isabelle Page         12    122      119 121 117 120 124 123 126 124 122 123 121 ... 3000m (10:25.43)
  Gemma Nuttall         11    115      116 117 116 120 112 104 104 105 93 92 82    ... 1500m (4:45.66)
  Kathryn Nohilly       10    114      117 114 116 116 115 100 99 107 91 92 105 98 ... 2000mSt (7:39.28)
  Brooke Nohilly        10    108      108 106 110 117 114 93 86 74 90 88          ... 2000mSt (7:16.35)
  Ella Boker            12    86       89 90 79 74 74 69 62 69
  Grace Newman          12    78       64 75 70 87 84 91 80 77 85 75 68

Cornwall
  Beatrice Boylan       12    128      129 128 124 129 126 124 127 126 125  ... 3000m (10:06.10)
  Ashley Wallace        12    117      111 118 119 117 117 107 109 99 113   ... 3000m (10:26.26)
  Hannah Mellino        10    105      86 107 105 111                       ... 2000mSt (7:24.70)
  Dara Cuffe            12    105      105 102 79 118 99 93 99 107 96       ... 1500m (4:49.60)
  Victoria Caroli       11    91       75 98 91 99 89 58 80 62 72
  Kaili Markley         11    84       77 86 85 88 84 63 78 75 84
  Hanna Colson          12    73       72 77 73 75 69 62 66 46 50

Pearl River
  Ailish Durcan         10    114      112 113 117 111 115 111 110 106 88         ... 3000m (10:34.06)
  Catherine Rayward     12    113      111 113 112 115 113 109 109 113 115 96 110 ... 3000m (10:42.85)
  Erin Clinton          9     106      102 103 106 99 97 108 115 109 102          ... 1500m (5:05.24)
  Kaitlyn Harding       10    105      100 89 109 107 107 104 114 82 77           ... 3000m (11:03.55)
  Jesse McCarthy        10    100      101 91 99 97 103
  Ann McCormack         9     98       96 99 90 99
  Lauren O'Brien        11    93       99 83 80 80
  Tara Smyth            11    90       90 91 84 83

Pittsford Mendon
  Mary Barger           12    126      127 124 119 120 121     ... 3000m (10:41.72)
  Amanda Zeccola        12    106      104 107 102 107 90 97   ... 800m (2:22.91)
  Kari Tuite            12    105      97 106 101 107 100 110  ... 3000m (10:53.38)
  Megha Singh           11    102      98 103 101 105 99 97    ... 3000m (10:51.58)
  Katie Rohrer          12    93       94 88
  Jamie Amoroso         11    81       82 73
  Rebecca Wittlin       12    79       82 64

North Shore
  Stacie Nadel          12    113      116 109 105 106 100  ... 3000m (10:34.41), 2000mSt (7:13.55)
  Diana Vizza           11    110      114 105 105 104 93   ... 3000m (10:28.01)
  Monica Morra          11    107      106 108 105 100 75   ... 3000m (10:56.78)
  Stephanie Bazan       11    102      93 102 105 92 87     ... 3000m (10:55.79), 1500m (4:55.7)
  Morgan Nerud          11    91       96 75 90 82 64       ... 2000mSt (7:35.92)
  Katherine Doering     12    82       84 77 82 59
  Courtney Hackman      12    71       72 70 53

Sweet Home
  Ally Ortega           12    128      114 134 111 131 122 133 124 128 ... 3000m (10:12.46)
  Aileen Doyle          12    123      116 124 125 124 123 125 117     ... 3000m (10:23.91)
  Sam Peterman          10    117      103 118 118 111 123 111 119     ... 1500m (4:45.30)
  Sam Himes             10    87       88 88 67

 

 Class C - Girls ... Pre-Season 2014
 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   East Aurora              65      (06-C )
   Bronxville               75      (01-C )
   Skaneateles             165      (03-C )
   Broadalbin-Perth        170      (02-C )
   Akron                   180      (06-C )
   Alden                   185      (06-C )
   Dobbs Ferry             190      (01-C )
   Wayland Cohocton        230      (05-C )
   Schuylerville           235      (02-C )
   Greenwich               260      (02-C )
   Pawling                 270      (01-C )
   Jordan-Elbridge         275      (03-C )
   Hannibal                285      (03-C )
   Cobleskill              310      (02-C )
   Saranac                 312      (07-C )
   South Jefferson         315      (03-C )
   Byron-Bergen            320      (05-C )

Bronxville, the perennial Class C champion, would be the odds-on favorite again ... But East Aurora drops from Class B to Class C.

East Aurora finished 3rd in Class B at last year's State Meet ... East Aurora returns 3 of their top 4 runners from States, but they lose their top runner to graduation (Marta McLaughlin) ... However, East Aurora adds the top-rated Class C runner to their XC roster this season (Sophia Tasselmyer, who ran for Starpoint during the XC season last year).

Bronxville does not appear to be quite as strong as normal entering 2014 ... 4 of their 7 runners from States graduated ... However, Bronxville seems to develop new runners very nicely, and I won't be surprised to see that happen .... Barring significant improvement from other Class C teams, the State Meet "might" be something of a dual-meet between East Aurora and Bronxville ... and that type of scoring compresses the scoring gap between the two teams which could make the race very close.

Fair amount of uncertainty in projecting the next groups of teams.

 

Some Class C Returning Runners by Team  

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2013
                           ---------  --------------------------------
East Aurora
  Sophia Tasselmyer     11    139      142 137 137 137 130 131 126 126 130  ... 3000m (10:02.69)
  Fiona Danieu          11    124      121 125 128 124 114 109 107 122 106  ... 3000m (10:30.59)
  Maisy Webster         10    115      106 113 113 119 116 117 124 117 117  ... 1500m (5:05.58)
  Liz O'Brien           12    90       89 91 93 84 77 77 88 87 78
  Molly McLaughlin      9     79       71 75 77 65 94 60                    ... 800m (2:24.03)
  Victoria Klimowicz    10    75       68 74 71 72 84 77 56
  Hannah Hitchcock      12    72       69 67 71 55 77 77

Bronxville
  Kaitlin Ryan          10    120      105 100 115 121 125 123 115 116 118 118 ... 3000m (10:37.23)
  Delia Hayes           12    109+     104 111 97 112 97 102 111 105 109       ... 1500m (4:44.75)
  Hilary Rizzo          11    106      99 102 111 105 79 104 102 97            ... 1500m (4:51.07), 800m (2:17.78)
  Veronica Walsh        11    90       88 89 94 83 87 81 59
  Lindsay Nobles        9     74       71 76
  Saige Sunier          11    68       72 64 64 46 54 43 37

Skaneateles
  Kaitlyn Neal          11    127      127 126 125 122 119 125 129 128 122 ... 3000m (10:20.06)
  Liz Dwyer             12    93       94 67 91 97 101 106 84 80           ... 3000m (11:16.6)
  Julia Willcox         10    87       76 78 91 78 96 93 87 85             ... 800m (2:25.80)
  Elsa Soderberg        12    82       74 83 72 83 93 71 63
  Finan Malcolm         11    64       67 63 55 59 56 51 63 43
  Jennifer Derosa       12    51       33 55 51 49

Broadalbin-Perth
  Jordyn DeNeuville     9     93       56 96 106 82 93 104 67 79 83 67 ... 3000m (11:13.4)
  Mackenzie DeZolt      9     86       68 94 87 78 82 94 76 70 79 67   ... 3000m (11:41.71)
  Coreena Monroe        12    86       73 86 85 82 96 97 67 70
  Victoria Opalka       12    85       75 81 75 79 84 99 89 87 98 86
  Sarah Naple           12    84       57 83 91 72 84 72 73 99 83
  Cadey Nolan           11    62       56 65 61 43
  Alex Opalka           12    54       44 55 41 52 58 62

Akron
  Margo Henley          9     111      112 110 109 107 111 112 92 94 ... 3000m (11:03.91), 2000mSt (7:32.17)
  Eliza Papke           9     109      108 109 107 112 112 109 99 99 ... 800m (2:25.25)
  Kylee Schultz         11    86       85 87 88 90 77 81 46 67       ... 1500m (5:04.92), 800m (2:25.36)
  Alexandra Erb         10    73       67 73 75 65
  Emma Chubb            11    63       57 62 62 57 65 75 50 51
  Jenna Robnett         8     57       52 58

Alden
  Savannah Warner       10    96       82 99 96 93 92 96 90 83 96  ... 1500m (5:11.12), 800m (2:29.34)
  Becky Kron            9     93       97 89 91 90 86 70 67        ... 1500m (5:18.05)
  Jaclyn Wallace        11    91       93 88 86 79 95 77 76 84     ... 3000m (11:23.91)
  Kara Pralow           12    72       70 67 66 81 72 68 81
  Erin Bliemeister      12    68       68
  Samantha Minotti      9     62       41 66 56 66

Dobbs Ferry
  Mika Andrews          10    113      112 109 119 112 89 94 89
  Anabelle Sheely       10    93       91 97 95 90 74 77 83
  Sasha Clarick         12    80       78 83 78 71 68 62         ... 800m (2:26.79)
  Joelle El Hamouche    9     68       62 69 65 71
  Josephine Weidner     11    66       67 68 62 43 29
  Raquel Addaona        8     62       56 65 53
  Nell Klassen          10    59       59

 

 Class D - Girls ... Pre-Season 2014
 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   Tully                    95      (03-D )
   Beaver River            105      (03-D )
   South Lewis             120      (03-D )
   Maple Grove             130      (06-D )
   Norwood-Norfolk         155      (10-D )
   Sauquoit Valley         165      (03-D )
   Silver Creek            175      (06-D )
   Keshequa                190      (05-D )
   Cooperstown             195      (03-D )
   Seton Catholic          200      (07-D )
   Red Creek               235      (05-D )
   Barker                  235      (06-D )
   Berne-Knox-West         265      (02-D )
   Haldane                 270      (01-D )

Tully is the defending Class  D champion ... Last year, Tully dropped from Class C to Class D which helped them win their first State title (of course, not having Bronxville in Class D really helped) ... Tully returns their top 3 runners ... the #4 and #6 runners from States graduated, and it appears the #5 runner may not be running XC this season ... and that tightens the gap between the other Class D teams.

Lots of uncertainty in projecting the other teams (it's a real guess at this point) ..... The numbers put Maple Grove in the 4th-position, but they have been a State Class D champion ... With the addition of one or two decent runners, Maple Grove could definitely win again.

Tully will have competition in Section 3 from Beaver River, South Lewis, Sauquoit Valley and Cooperstown ... A lot could depend on development of new runners.

 

Some Class D Returning Runners by Team  

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2013
                           ---------  --------------------------------
Tully
  Ashleigh Crawford     11    113      104 115 110 111 112 111 118 115 110 105 ... 1500m (4:56.07), 800m (2:23.56)
  Ellen Jaworski        11    108      95 114 100 111 104 106 113 100 100 96   ... 2000mSt (7:37.60), 800m (2:29.84)
  Allison Congelli      9     99       77 104 100 95 78 80 83                  ... 3000m (11:22.69)
  Katherine Graham      12    58       50 65 40 63 32 27 26 58 51
  Maureen Murphy        10    54       47 50 53 50 67 41
  Maureen Whitney       11    53       35 61 50 51 40 36 43 25
  Sophia Sheldon        11    52       45 52 56 49

Beaver River
  Taylor Moore          8     86       80 80 89 89 76 87 82     ... 2000mSt (8:14.88)
  Sierra Kempney        9     86       87 81 84 76 86 74 89 80
  Emily Lighthall       9     83       88 59 81 87 73 81 77
  Victoria Rollin       11    81       66 78 86
  Riley Nortz           11    76       76
  Reganne Smith         12    76       78 72 71
  Rachel Steiner        12    56       28 54 68 47 48 44
  Makayla Roggie        9     49       53 40 47 58 33 13 32 39
  Ciera Verschneider    12    38       38 29 35 48 32 24 34 41

South Lewis
  Sierra Corbett        11    92       77 92 97 93 78 92 92 82 69
  Christina Platt       11    79       81 74 78 71 75 81 81 68
  Kayla Cavanaugh       10    77       63 86 68 65 73 62 72 53
  Gaelyn Bronson        12    76       75 71 79 81 72 69 63 68 55
  Morgan Burd           10    63       53 62 68 59 65 37 62 53 23
  Abigayle Liendecker   10    53       51 62 33 45 37 46 16 -1

Maple Grove
  Hope Pietrocarlo      11    124      106 111 125 124 126 114 110 106 110 ... 3000m (10:25.92)
  Grace Auer            9     95       95 96 98 84 77 83 84                ... 3000m (11:10.47)
  Kristin Kelemen       8     80       81 76 82 77 81 61 72
  Ally Saar             10    48       46 51 40 34
		

 

 CHSAA - PSAL - AIS Girls ... Pre-Season 2014
 
   Team                   Score   Section-Class
   ------------------     -----   -------------
   St. Anthony's           110      (CHSAA)
   McKee-Staten            115      (PSAL )
   St. John Baptist        125      (CHSAA)
   Kellenberg              130      (CHSAA)
   Notre Dame              135      (CHSAA)
   Hackley                 140      (AIS  )
   Sacred Heart            145      (CHSAA)
   Brearley                150      (AIS  )
   Benjamin Cardozo        170      (PSAL )
   Immaculata-Buff         190      (CHSAA)
   Marymount               195      (AIS  )
   Curtis                  200      (PSAL )
Another group with lots of uncertainty ... St. Anthony's was last year's CHSAA champion, but they lost 4 runners to graduation (including the top 2) ... St. Anthony's is not the top team based on raw numbers, but I'm guessing they may develop some new XC runners (just speculation on my part).

McKee-Staten is the top team based on raw numbers, due in part, to higher-rated runners at the #4 and #5 scoring positions.

This could be wide open ....

 

Some CHSAA Returning Runners by Team 

                           XC-Rating   XC Ratings by Race 2013
                           ---------  --------------------------------		
St. Anthony's
  Shea Bohan            12    96       95 93 95 103 99 86 92 94 101 77  ... 3000m (10:59.20)
  Nicole Pikulik        11    90       84 98 78 88 88 65 77 53          ... 2000mSt (8:05.31)
  Victoria Arena        10    88       88
  Antonia Palazzolo     12    66       65 71 55 63 56 44 62
  Meghan Slattery       11    65       66 65 64 64

McKee-Staten
  Mary Kate Drennan     10    99       100 93 102 92 99 99 91 90         ... 1500m (5:09.81), 800m (2:25.51)
  Nicole Maliborska     12    92       83 96 99 85 95 88 74 85 75 78 66  ... 1500m (5:05.57)
  Alaina Lynch          12    87       90 78 88 76 89 92 75 78 67 83 73  ... 2000mSt (7:45.94)
  Jenny Yakir           12    84       83 71 88 81 86 83 81 78 72 85 81  ... 2000mSt (7:47.3)
  Tiffany Merlinsky     12    79       82 66 78 69 66 78 68 79 69 82 77  ... 1500m (5:10.19)
  Nouran Ibrahim        12    64       66 58 64 54 63 55 66              ... 3000m (11:43.6)
  Rain Cinco            12    62       63 52 60 65 64 67 52 63
  Katie Clark           12    57       57

St. John the Baptist
  Kate McCormack        12    112      107 111 116 107 111 104 115 102  ... 3000m (10:43.85), 1500m (4:46.20)
  Erin Endres           11    98       95 90 99 97 93 105 79            ... 3000m (10:54.0), 1500m (4:47.41)
  Patricia McGuinness   10    76       76
  Allison Schleier      11    75       55 87 60 69 51 67 47
  Kelly Fielder         11    71       67 73 33 75                      ... 1500m (5:24.44)
  Emily Fiorillo        10    64       64                               ... 1500m (5:17.84)
  Annie Fiorillo        12    63       57 67 45 63 56 65

Kellenberg
  Jazmine Fray          12    115+     111 117 107 121 114 99 86 113 ... 1500m (4:39.38), 800m (2:10.25)
  Deidre Lewin          11    92       81 96 88 92 93 82 87          ... 1500m (5:11.39)
  Raquel Lopez          12    85       71 91 81 82 77 73             ... 2000mSt (8:05.41)
  Kathryn Elnick        12    75       55 85 58 71 72                ... 3000m (11:44.07)
  Sarah Newman          11    59       59
  Aislinn Keely         11    49       49

Notre Dame
  Sydney Rice           10    103      104 98 103 91         ... 3000m (10:48.65)
  Lauren Pitarresi      10    86       89 71 88 81           ... 1500m (5:10.77)
  Olivia Jaenicke       11    83       68 81 91 78 77 63 76  ... 1 Mile (5:31.28), 800m R (2:29.5)
  Tara Kelly            11    82       76 36 84 87 101 96    ... 1500m (5:12.82)
  Erin Harrington       11    60       60
  Jackie Roda           12    50       50

Hackley
  Claire Gomba          12    112      108 111 107 117 106 107 112 114 ... 3000m (10:24.45), 1500m (4:55.97)
  Julia Stevenson       11    100      97 100 106 104 94 74 71 80      ... 3000m (10:44.85), 2000mSt (7:18.52)
  Greer Levin           12    75       77 71 80 69 61 45 33 66         ... 2000mSt (7:51.89)
  Lindsay Schechter     11    66       58 60 71 69 52
  Laura Seebacher       11    61       31 64 66 55

Sacred Heart
  Paige Duca            12    109+     111 98 107 114 113 99 108 106 ... 3000m (10:21.90), 2000mSt (7:02.87)
  Kelli Schmidt         11    86       69 92 80 89 78 71
  Joanna Grueneberg     12    80       63 86 71 79                   ... 1500m (5:16.57)
  Gina Roslan           11    77       65 83 54 79

Brearley
  Nina Zweig            12    108      110 106 103 98  ... 1500m (4:54.29)
  Claire Elliman        11    95       96 93 96 88     ... 2000mSt (8:03.67)
  Amrita Ramamurthy     12    73       74 69           ... 2000mSt (8:14.66)
  Jessica Lai           11    66       63 55 71 66
  Ashley Prescod        10    60       60 59