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Pre-Race Comments
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All ten years of NXN have demonstrated that most teams will
NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will
have speed ratings lower than the individual runner
projections below (this is expected because national competition on
a new course is a
new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling,
time-changes, etc) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses
(typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for
projecting relative team scores.
The overall morning-line projected team scores above are
based (in part) on the individual ratings below ... There
were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning
ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to
approximate an overall-combined rating ... and incorporate possible
inconsistencies into final projected team scores.
Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race
(runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why
predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms
of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever
possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ...
Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in
predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and
frustrating )
... Notice the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and
State Meet ratings above ... For example, La Salle Academy
has the best team score based on performance at NXN regional races, but
only 9th best based on performance at State Meets.
General Team Comments:
The morning-line at most horse tracks
considers three factors: (1) past performance history of each horse, (2)
an opinion of what people are likely to bet, and (3) a handicapping
opinion of the person making the morning-line.
Entering NXN 2014, the two teams that
appear to be at the top are Fayetteville-Manlius (NY) and American Fork (UT)
... and based on performance at NXN regional races, La Salle Academy
(RI) can be included.
Overall, this is a very good field of
teams with some top talent ... Perhaps half the field has the talent
to challenge for a podium position IF the team, as a whole, can perform ... As noted above, some of the teams
are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams ...
This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.
Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and
predicting the exact
order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note:
I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the
predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off"
races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run
well).
Remember ... Teams performing at
(or above) performance levels getting them to NXN Nationals typically jump up
significantly in projected finish-positions.
Individual Team Comments:
Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... Fayetteville-Manlius
finished 4th at NXN last year (I projected them 3rd) ... Based on their
record-setting performance at Bowdoin Park last year, FM looked like a
winner going Portland Meadows ... but I have suspicions of teams that
have a season-best performance (noticeably the best) and then they must race
the following week (or two weeks) against top teams after long travel
distances (FM at NXN 2004 is another example) ..... Fayetteville-Manlius
won this year's NXN regional with an "average" performance for them
which I think sets them up for a good performance at Glendoveer Golf
Course ... and I think the new NXN course is good for the FM guys
... It could be close contest between Fayetteville-Manlius
and American Fork, but I'm giving the advantage to FM
based on multiple excellent performances throughout the season .... It
is scary picking both the FM guys and girls to win .
American Fork
UT ... American Fork finished 7th at NXN last year
and 2nd in 2012 ... American Fork has one of the best cross
country programs in the nation ... They have been consistently good all
season and could definitely win this race.
La Salle
Academy RI ... La Salle was hampered early in the
season with an injury to one of their top runners (Jack Salisbury) who
has shown very nice improvement since returning ... La Salle
popped a huge season-best performance in winning NXN Northeast ... and
if La Salle duplicates that performance at NXN, they could
definitely win ... As noted above, La Salle has the best team
score based on NXN regional speed ratings ... But as suggested in the Fayetteville-Manlius
write-up above, it is difficult to duplicate PR-type performances the
following week against top teams after long travel distances.
St. Anthony's NY
... St. Anthony's has proven to be much better than I thought in
the pre-season ... They have shown continual improvement throughout the
season ... To be honest, I'm not sure what to expect from St.
Anthony's at NXN, but I think they perform well ... and that puts
them in a podium contending position.
Davis UT
... Davis had a big season-best performance at NXN Southwest and
gave American Fork a scare (only a 3 point team score margin) ...
At NXN Southwest, Davis had not raced in a month since the Utah
State Meet ... and they have an extra week to recover from their
season-best performance ... Davis enters NXN 2014 as a major
contender for a podium spot, and perhaps, the top spot.
Liverpool NY ...
New York could have three boys teams finish in the top 10 if all run
well ... Liverpool finished 20th at NXN last year, but I suspect
that one year of NXN experience will help Liverpool finish better
this year ... Like the FM guys, I think the new Glendoveer course
will help Liverpool.
Sandburg IL ...
Sandburg won NXN Midwest by 78 points with a team spread
(1st-to-7th) of only 15 seconds!!! ... Sandburg is an excellent
pack-running team that has a real shot at the podium.
Christian
Brothers NJ ... CBA-NJ finished 2nd at NXN last
year, 4th in 2012 and won NXN in 2011 ... That says a lot ... Even
though this year's CBA team has yet to reach those performance
levels, they have shown contending ability and could challenge for a
podium position with a top performance.
North Central
WA ...
North Central finished 8th at NXN last year and 3rd in 2012 ...
North Central always seems to be a contender at NXN ... They have
the top projected runner in Tanner Anderson (starting the team score
with a low score is nice advantage).
Individual Race Comments:
The table below lists the top runners at
NXN 2014 by approximate speed ratings (either overall or selected speed rating) ...
37 of the 50 runners listed below qualified as individuals (not on a
team competing at NXN).
Tanner Anderson has run 200+ speed
ratings on multiple occasions this season and is the favorite to win ...
Tanner Anderson finished 3rd at NXN last year and is the top
returning NXN runner ... Bryce Millar won the NXN-New York
Regional and is the NY State Class A champion ... Olin Hacker has
performed extremely well during the 2014 season, is the NXN Heartland
champion and also qualified for Footlocker Nationals ... Adam Bernard
won NXN Southeast handily ... Jesse Reiser won NXN Midwest and
then qualified for Footlocker Nationals ... Will Lauer and
Paul Roberts are definitely capable of challenging for a top
position ... Benjamin Veatch is another Footlocker National
qualifier.
Others in the list below are potential
contenders ... Look how close this field sets-up (40 guys
between 193 and 190 ... that's only a 9 second difference
which means little in a 5K race) ...
Should be an interesting race.
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