Note about the Speed Ratings ... The meet was conducted on a snow-covered course that was partially plowed ... reports said 8-9 inches of snow had fallen before the races the days before ... It was cold with temperatures in the teens.
For deriving speed ratings, these conditions are not unlike the horribly muddy conditions seen in some years at NXN Portland Meadows ... A few runners do run better than normal ... a much smaller than normal percentage run normally ... a much larger than normal percentage run slower than normal relative to expectations.
In these situations, I typically identify the "smaller than normal" percentage who run normally ... I statistically fit these runners with the top runners (some normal, some better than normal) ... That means many runners will have speed ratings lower than usual, but that's what happens in these off-condition races (many runners run slower than normal relative to other runners).
The race adjustment derived for NXN Northwest 2014
is a huge deviation from the normal adjustment for the Eagle
Island course ... I'm satisfied the numbers below are correct ... BUT
using speed ratings from "off-condition" races to predict future races
on "good" courses is generally not a good idea if betting serious
money
.