My pre-season projection for National Girls Teams is listed below ... I do this each pre-season for my own interest.
Purpose ... There is one purpose ... Get a general idea where the NY State teams rank overall ... I am primarily concerned about teams likely to compete in NXN (teams that have shown interest, have competed or may be expected to compete).
To a large extent, the team listing below is an extension of the 2012 XC season into 2013 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team was probably NOT included ... This could exclude some good teams, but it does not matter because actual race results will identify those teams ... Once the real season starts, I tend to ignore the pre-season.
My first criteria for this pre-season list is to consider teams that competed in the NXN Regional races ... Performance in NXN (both Regional & National) plus State Meets is the major focus (plus a few other major meets) because I am considering "championship" performance.
Initially, I combined all potential teams in a single race scenario and began eliminating teams with the highest scores in an iterative process until I had 30 teams remaining ... The scores are listed below along with the teams just behind the top 30 scoring teams.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... Real 2013 race results are what count.
Pre-Season Projection - Girls National Team Contenders - 2013
NXN
School State Score Region
-------------------- ----- ----- ------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius NY 200 New York
2 Assumption KY 220 Southeast
3 Carmel IN 235 Midwest
4 Great Oak CA 240 California
5 Simi Valley CA 250 California
6 Holy Names NY 255 New York
7 Wayzata MN 270 Heartland
8 Pennsbury PA 300 Northeast
9 Naperville North IL 330 Midwest
10 Coeur D'Alene ID 335 Northwest
11 Fort Collins CO 355 Southwest
12 Glenbard West IL 375 Midwest
13 Saline MI 390 Midwest
14 Pleasant Valley IA 395 Heartland
15 St. Francis (sac) CA 400 California
16 Lake Braddock VA 410 Southeast
17 Unionville PA 415 Northeast
18 Burnt Hills NY 420 New York
19 Xavier College Prep AZ 425 Southwest
20 Saratoga NY 430 New York
21 Monarch CO 435 Southwest
22 Southlake Carroll TX 440 South
23 Saugus CA 450 California
24 Linn-Mar IA 455 Heartland
25 Arrowhead WI 460 Heartland
26 Providence NC 465 Southeast
27 Barrington RI 470 Northeast
28 Pine Creek CO 480 Southwest
29 Geneva IL 485 Midwest
30 American Fork UT 490 Southwest
The next group is basically in order following the
list above ... Many are very close and the order
could be shuffled a lot:
Davis UT Southwest (added Aug 29)
Camas WA Northwest
Tatnall DE Southeast
Serrano CA California
Cardinal Gibbons NC Southeast
Grosse Pointe South MI Midwest
Seaholm MI Midwest
Dowling Catholic IA Heartland
Capistrano Valley CA California
Coe-Brown NH Northeast
Yucaipa CA California
Sehome WA Northwest (added Aug 2)
Buchanan CA California
Mira Costa CA California
Lewisville Marcus TX South
Bonita CA California
Davis Sr. CA California
Bismarck ND Heartland
Voorhees NJ Northeast
Mountain Brook AL Southeast
O'Fallon IL Midwest
Bowling Green KY Southeast
Morgantown WV Southeast
Sandburg IL Midwest
Palatine IL Midwest
St. Mary's Academy OR Northwest
Traverse City MI Midwest
Central Bucks West PA Northeast
Dowling Catholic IA Heartland
Jesuit OR Northwest
Green Hope NC Southeast
Bishop Feehan MA Northeast
Liverpool NY New York
Mountain Crest UT Southwest
Classical Academy CO Southwest
Suffern NY New York
Edina MN Heartland
Neenah WI Heartland
The Woodlands TX South
Humble Kingwood TX South
Centerville OH Midwest
San Clemente CA California
St. Thomas Aquinas FL Southeast
*** I may have missed a team or two going through
my databases as quickly as I did
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2012 seasonal speed ratings
(sort of) ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I had to)
... Speed
ratings were scarce for some teams, so I used my imagination (but so what, this is pre-season
).
and they return a solid core of runners ... But in all honesty, FM
might be vulnerable in 2013 ... One of their top returning runners (Mary
Barger) is transferring to another school in NY ... FM does not
appear to be as deep as in recent years ... and they are facing some
very talented teams .... If the rankings were based solely on numbers
from returning runners, Assumption KY would ranked on top.