Deciding Footlocker versus NXN match-ups for 2013 is much easier because the Portland Meadows course was finally firm and ran faster than it ever has in the past because it was frozen .... The incredible Portland Meadows swamp of 2012 would be a handicapping nightmare if another race took place the following week ... Most handicappers would simply throw-out those NXN results and look at other results for making a bet.

Since I'm a horse player, my premise in this exercise is straightforward ... Put together a hypothetical race containing 20 runners selected from both National meets ... Decide on approximate morning-line odds and think about who I might bet and how I might bet the race ... Assume the hypothetical race is one or two weeks after the National races and is conducted at a neutral course under good weather and course conditions.

I selected a representative field of 20 runners using NXN and Footlocker Nationals as the source trying to include the 20 top girls and 20 top boys ... Selection was reasonably easy for about 80% of the runners ... Selection of the final 20% was much more difficult because many runners are so close in ability and overall performance ... Other runners could be selected, but my final selections are listed below.

The lists below are sorted in a ranking order by speed ratings ... Each runner for my hypothetical race is assigned a speed rating I thought representative based on speed ratings for the Nationals races, qualifying races, State Meet races and others ... Link to my Footlocker National ratings ... Link to my NXN National ratings ... Speed ratings from the National meets are most important ... I spent a fair amount of time deriving those speed ratings initially, and following an additional re-evaluation, I am satisfied on their accuracy and appropriateness as handicapping tool for betting an upcoming race (because that is their purpose) and as an evaluation tool for what happened in those specific races.

General Comments

Girls FL & NXN Races ... At the very top-end, NXN had the advantage with the quality and super performances from Alexa Efraimson, Elise Cranny and Sarah Baxter ... Tessa Barrett matches-up decently with NXN top three ... Which of those four runners I would bet to win would depend on their betting odds (I think it is that close with respect to a betting opportunity) ... Excluding those four runners, Footlocker had a noticeable advantage in terms performance and quality in my opinion ... 12 of 20 selections competed only at Footlocker and two other girls competed at both NXN and Footlocker (and their Footlocker performances were better in terms of speed rating) ... 13 of 20 selections are underclassmen.

Boys FL & NXN Races ... Overall, the quality at this upper level was fairly evenly split between Footlocker and NXN ... Four of my top 5 selections are underclassmen - that bodes well for next year at the very top

 Girls - Top Individuals 2013

5-2 ... In a hypothetical race combining the two national races, I would make Efraimson a slight morning-line favorite at odds of 5-2 ... As a bettor, I would consider that her last race was an all-out maximum performance (not easy to duplicate in a short period of time).

After winning in that exciting fashion, I expect Efraimson would end up as the betting favorite ... Since the race is close, I would be looking at odds on other runners hoping to find some betting value.

3-1 ... In the hypothetical race morning-line, I would make Cranny, Baxter and Barrett all co-second choices with odds of 3-1 ... If Elise Cranny's odds began rising significantly above 3-1, I might start reaching for my wallet.

Baxter's effort at NXN was all-out (she left nothing in reserve), and that's an important handicapping consideration ... For once, Baxter had company on the lead at NXN and she likely had to force the pace a bit more than normal ... and the competition from Efraimson and Cranny was definitely not normal for this season ... However, depending on where the hypothetical race takes (someplace warmer), I could start liking Baxter's chances ... Baxter forced to set the pace in a cold wind with competition, and that's a hard thing to do.

If pari-mutuel wagering was available at NXN and Tessa Barrett was in the field, I almost certainly would have bet Tess Barrett ... not because I thought she would win ... but because I thought she "might" have a chance to win and she would have been a longshot (betting-wise) compared to the top three ... I like betting opportunities where the chance of winning are much better than the actual betting odds.

Barrett was never totally extended in any XC race ... When challenged late by a top runner at both Footlocker Northeast and Nationals (Hannah DeBalsi), Barrett simply opened a lead and won going away ... I don't know how much more she has, but I would willing to bet serious money if the odds were right.

Morning-line odds ... with talent like the top four, the morning-line odds have to long for everybody else ... For DeBalsi and the next three, typical odds would probably start on the order of between 8-1 to 15-1; but as a bettor, I would want higher odds ... And the morning-line for odds for everybody else would be on the order of 20-1 to 50-1 ... At race time, those odds could be significantly higher.

Caroline Alcorta

Anoush Shehadeh and Hannah DeBalsi are early co-favorites for next year's Footlocker ... I'm assuming Alexa Efraimson will run NXN again.

For my hypothetical race, I think Makena Morley could be a good choice for gimmick wagers (exacta, trifecta, superfecta) ... Her best speed rating of the season (159 at States) is bettered only by the top four.

Anna Maxwell

California girls who qualify for NXN at the State Meet don't need to run another qualifying race, so NXN has an advantage in gathering CA talent.

Fiona O'Keeffe is one of the key national runners to follow next autumn.

At Footlocker Nationals, Brianna Schwartz was in about 20th-place with a mile to go and finished in 6th-place.

The handicapper in me knows that Jenks' Footlocker National effort might be a very good "tightener" for an upcoming hypothetical race.

Ran both Footlocker and NXN in 2012 and 2013 .... Finished 40th at NXN in 2013 and 5th in 2013 ... Hard to compare because comparing NXN conditions in 2012 to 2013 is like comparing Miley Cyrus to Mother Theresa ... Taylor Werner was 13th at Footlocker in 2012 and 10th in 2013.

Her 2013 NXN and FL performances were approximately equal for handicapping purposes (with Footlocker being slightly better in terms of speed).

 BOYS - Top Individuals 2013

3-1 ... In a hypothetical race combining the two national races, I would make Grant Fisher the morning-line favorite at opening odds of 3-1.

4-1 ... In the hypothetical race morning-line, I would make Wilmot, Dressel, Maton, Anderson and Geberkidane all co-second choices with odds of 4-1 ... Realistically, I should spread it over odds of 4-1, 9-2 and 5-1, but it looks fairly even-up overall.

Has the ability to both lead a race or follow top competition and remain competitive.

In a hypothetical upcoming race, I would give Tanner Anderson lots of consideration for a winning performance.

In the second half of NXN, Cerake Geberkidane looked "uncomfortable" to me ... I was somewhat surprised he held on to finish 4th because NXN was not one of his best performances ... In another race, he would definitely require winning consideration.

7-1 to 12-1 ... In the hypothetical race morning-line, I would give the next seven runners morning-line odds ranging from 7-1 to 12-1 ... and some of them would have a legitimate shot at winning.

Although beaten by Haney at NXN, I moved Tanner Anderson and Cerake Geberkidane up on this list due to better overall XC performances.