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Pre-Race Comments
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All nine years of NXN have demonstrated that most teams will
NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will
have speed ratings lower than the individual runner
projections below (this is expected because Portland Meadows is a
new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling,
time-changes, etc) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses
(typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for
projecting relative team scores.
The overall morning-line projected team scores above are
based (in part) on the individual ratings below ... There
were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning
ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to
approximate an overall-combined rating.
Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race
(runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why
predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms
of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever
possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ...
Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in
predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and
frustrating )
... Notice the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and
State Meet ratings above ... For example, Fayetteville-Manlius
had their best team performance of the season at the NXN-NY regional and
that's reflected in their corresponding NXN regional team score ...
Likewise, Christian Brother's Holmdel Park course record at the
New Jersey State Meet of Champions places them on top for State Meet
scoring.
General Team Comments:
The morning-line at most horse tracks
considers three factors: (1) past performance history of each horse, (2)
an opinion of what people are likely to bet, and (3) a handicapping
opinion of the person making the morning-line.
The weather and course conditions are
major handicapping factors at Portland Meadows in December ... On Sunday
(Dec 1, 2013), I watched several horse races at Portland Meadows on
television (temperature 52 deg F, light rain, track sloppy) ... There
were small pools of standing water in one section of the infield, but no
"lakes" that sometimes form at Portland Meadows ... No way to tell how
soft or saturated the cross country course might be, but it's likely
there will be some soft (muddy) areas ... The extended weather forecast
says mostly sunny days Tuesday through Friday (40-34 deg high temps)
with Saturday having a 0% chance of snow and a high temperature of 30
... I suspect the cool weather will affect some teams and runners.
Entering NXN 2013, the three teams that
appear to be at the top are Christian Brothers Academy (NJ),
Gig Harbor (WA) and Fayetteville-Manlius (NY) ... Arcadia
(CA), American Fork (UT) and North Central (WA) are not
that far behind and definitely within striking distance with a
season-best team performance.
Overall, this is a very good field of
teams with some top talent ... Perhaps half the field has the talent
to challenge for a podium position IF the team, as a whole, can perform ... As noted above, some of the teams
are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams ...
This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.
Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and
predicting the exact
order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note:
I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the
predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off"
races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run
well).
Remember ... the Portland Meadows course in
early December tends to be an "equalizer" ... Teams performing at
(or above) performance levels getting them to Portland Meadows jump up
significantly in projected finish-positions.
Individual Team Comments:
Christian
Brothers NJ ... CBA-NJ finished 4th in the swamp
conditions at NXN last year ... CBA was the NXN
Champion in 2011 and they were 5th at NXN 2010 ... CBA has experience and demonstrated ability at Portland Meadows ...
At the NXN Northeast regional, CBA rested their #4 runner and
their top runner (Mike McClemens) took a hard fall 1000 meters into the
race which helps to explain their lower than expected team performance
at the NXN regional ... CBA set a Holmdel Park course record the
previous week at the New Jersey Meet of Champions, and that demonstrates
their exceptional ability ... CBA has experience,
demonstrated ability and team depth which makes CBA a very
slight favorite to win.
Gig Harbor WA ...
Gig Harbor had an exceptional team performance at the Washington
State Meet ... If Gig Harbor can duplicate that effort, they will
be very hard to beat ... Team performance was definitely lower at the
Northwest Regional, but top runner (Wolfgang Beck) was sick ... CBA's
advantage over Gig Harbor is team depth should normal scorers
have "off-days".
Fayetteville-Manlius NY ... Fayetteville-Manlius
finished 2nd at NXN 2010 and12th at NXN 2011 ... FM had an
"unfortunate" beginning in last year's NXN - early in the race, top
runner Nick Ryan was basically "tackled" to the ground and four other FM
guys were knocked to the ground as well ... two team scorers lost a
spike and ran most of the race with one shoe (FM still finished
16th) ... FM's top runner this year is Bryce Millar (won the NY
State Meet and he's one of the FM runners who lost a shoe at NXN last
year). Team mates Andrew Berge and sophomore Peter Ryan (Nick's brother)
are running just behind Millar giving FM a very solid top three
scorers ... With improving other runners, FM has a legitimate
shot at winning NXN ... FM set the team course record at Bowdoin
Park in winning the NXN NY regional.
Arcadia CA ...
Arcadia won NXN 2010 and 2012 and finished 4th in 2011 ...
As noted as noted in previous years, "been-there-done-that" applies in my book ... Arcadia
has proven they can handle Portland Meadows.
American Fork
UT ... American Fork finished 2nd at NXN last year
with a very good team performance ... American Fork has another
good team this year and is capable of challenging for a podium position
and a possible win.
North Central
WA ...
North Central finished 3rd at NXN last year and have two of the
top runners in the race (Tanner Anderson and Kai Wilmot).
Brentwood TN
... Brentwood is very solid at the top end ... Team scoring at
the #5 position could be problematic with this excellent field of teams.
Northport NY
and Liverpool NY ...
Wow ... Three New York Boys teams and only two New York Girls teams at NXN
2013 ...
NY could have three boys teams finish in the top 10 if all run well ...
Unfortunately, I read that Northport's #5 runner at the NXN
regional appeared injured after the race and had his foot in a boot
(visible in photos); based on that and his lower than normal speed
rating, Northport's overall projected score above was increased.
Individual Race Comments:
The table below lists the top runners at
NXN 2013 by speed ratings (either overall or selected speed rating) ...
Two of the runners in the list finished in the top 10 at NXN 2012, Estavan De La
Rosa (Arcadia CA) was 2nd and Obsa Ali (Richfield MN) was
10th .... Both Tanner Anderson (North Central WA) and Cerake
Geberkidane (Denver East CO) have had outstanding seasons and enter
NXN 2013 as the two favorites to win ... Mike Brannigan
(Northport NY) ran an excellent race in winning NXN New York (197 speed
rating) and could challenge for the win ... Taylor (Kai) Wilmot
(North Central WA) was coming off and injury at last year's NXN race,
and has the talent to challenge in this race ... Addison Dehaven
(Brookings SD) could surprise the guys at the top ... Estavan De La
Rosa (Arcadia CA) was closing very fast at the end of the California
State meet race, and definitely seems on the improve (so look out).
Others in the list below are potential
contenders ... Look how close this field sets-up (34 guys
between 193 and 190 ... that's only a 9 second difference
which means little at Portland Meadows) ...
Should be an interesting race.
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... I'm talking about Tessa Barrett (Abington Heights PA) who
handily won Footlocker Northeast (155 rating) ... she won the PA State
Meet (158 rating, beat the top Unionville runner by 36 seconds) ... Not
certain how good she is, but she's very good (reminds me of Anna Rohrer
from last year entering Footlocker Finals).