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Pre-Race Comments
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All eight years of NXN have demonstrated that most teams will
NOT have their best race of the year at NXN ... Many runners will
have speed ratings lower than the individual runner
projections below (this is expected because Portland Meadows is a
new type of experience for many runners ... add in traveling,
time-changes, etc.) ... Most runners perform best on familiar courses
(typically local courses for them) ... The projected ratings are just a vehicle for
projecting relative team scores.
The overall morning-line projected team scores above are
based (in part) on the individual ratings below ... There
were instances where I needed to make a "best guess" concerning
ratings for individual runners with inconsistent speed ratings to
approximate an overall-combined rating.
Many runners are not consistent from race-to-race
(runners have good races, bad races and average races) ... That's why
predicting a team score based of any one race MAY be misleading in terms
of actual team ability ... I prefer a series of races (whenever
possible) to identify runners with big variations in performance ...
Then I need to figure-out how to handle these variations in
predicting the next race (Handicapping can be both fun and
frustrating )
... SEE the difference in team scores from NXN regional ratings and
State Meet ratings above.
General Team Comments:
The morning-line at most horse tracks
considers three factors: (1) past performance history of each horse, (2)
an opinion of what people are likely to bet, and (3) a handicapping
opinion of the person making the morning-line ... The first two factors
are usually the most important.
Along those lines, Christian Brothers (NJ)
and
Southlake Carroll (TX) finished 1st and 2nd last year (separated
by only 4 points) and they were more than 60 points ahead of the
3rd-place team (Davis (UT) ... Considering the overall 2012 XC season
plus proven ability at Portland Meadows, I believe Christian Brothers (NJ)
and
Southlake Carroll (TX) enter NXN 2012 as the top two teams with
some separation from the other top contenders.
American Fork (UT), North
Central (WA), Arcadia (CA) and York (IL) are
definitely serious contenders with great team performances ... and I
can envision any of the top 11 teams in the morning-line having a real
chance at a podium position ... As noted above, some of the teams
are going to run "sub-par" creating an opportunity for other teams ...
This "sub-par" factor applies equally to the girl's race.
Guessing which teams will run sub-par at NXN is exactly that - It's a Guess ... and
predicting the exact
order of finish is a "crap-shoot" to a certain degree .... Note:
I expect the top three scoring teams may have lower scores than the
predicted scores (that typically happens because many teams have "off"
races which raises their score and lowers the score of teams that do run
well).
Remember ... the Portland Meadows course in
early December tends to be an "equalizer" ... Teams performing at
(or above) performance levels getting them to Portland Meadows jump up
significantly in projected finish-positions.
Individual Team Comments:
Christian
Brothers NJ ... CBA-NJ is the defending NXN
Champion (and they were 5th at NXN 2010) ... CBA has experience and demonstrated ability at Portland Meadows ...
They have run extremely well in 2012 and were given something of a
"wake-up" call at the NXN Northeast regional ... That experience,
demonstrated ability and team depth makes Christian Brothers the
slight favorite to win.
Southlake
Carroll TX ... Southlake Carroll finished a close
2nd at NXN last year and the return with another outstanding team ...
Southlake Carroll has experience and demonstrated ability at
Portland Meadows ... I give CBA the advantage of team depth (in
case a typical scorer has an "off" race).
North Central
WA ...
North Central competed very nicely at WA States and the NXN
Northwest regional without their top seasonal runner Taylor
(Kai) Wilmot ... Wilmot is listed in the entries, so I added him as
a North Central scorer ... according to several newspaper
articles, Wilmot was side-lined with a tendon injury (I have him last
competing at the Richland Invitational on Oct 6th) ... I have two
questions as a handicapper, (1) will he actually run? and (2) how
effective will he be returning from an injury of this length?? ... IF he
runs decently (a top four scorer or better), North Central
becomes a very serious contender for the win.
American Fork
UT ... American Fork is a handicapping conundrum
with respect to Portland Meadows ... their seasonal performances leading
up to NXN Portland Meadows are outstanding, especially at NXN Southwest
... As noted above in the Team Scores based on NXN Regional speed
ratings, American Fork is on top ... But American Fork has
historically had problems reproducing those performances at Portland
Meadows ... They were the co-favorite at NXN
2010 and finished only 8th ... Last year, American Fork
also had the best team score based on regional speed ratings (they
finished 6th at NXN) ... Despite that, American Fork clearly deserves a
good position in the morning-line.
Arcadia CA ...
Arcadia won NXN 2010 and finished a very good 4th last year ...
As noted last year, "been-there-done-that" applies in my book ... Arcadia
has proven they can handle Portland Meadows.
York IL ...
York is always at NXN Portland Meadows (because they are that
good year-after-year) ... And this year, York has a really good shot
at a podium position.
Fayetteville-Manlius NY
(Manlius XC Club) ... Fayetteville-Manlius
finished 12th at NXN 2011 and 2nd at NXN 2010 ... FM should get
their team score off to a great start with their top two runners (Nick
Ryan and Bryce Millar) ... Top performances by the next three scorers
could make this very interesting (look at NXN 2010).
Saratoga NY
(Kinetic) ...
Saratoga surprised the favorites (York, FM, Royal Simi) and won
NXN 2005 (actually called NTN in 2005) ... Will Saratoga spring
another surprise and make the podium in 2012?? ... They have a chance!
Individual Race Comments:
Nick Ryan (Fayetteville-Manlius)
is the top returning NXN runner from 2011 ... Nick Ryan finished
5th last year after leading for nearly half the race then getting passed
by eventual winner Futsum Zeinasellaissie ... he held on very gamely
after being passed to earn that 5th-place finish ... Nick Ryan's
only loss in 2012 was to the nation's top runner, Edward Cheserak, at
Manhattan ... in his last two races, Nick Ryan set course records
at Elma Meadows (the NY State Meet course in 2012) and Bowdoin Park on a
rather cold and windy day (former record holder was Joe Rosa of New
Jersey) ... Nick Ryan enters this race as the morning-line
favorite due to his excellent performances in 2012 and he beat the top
five contenders in the list below at NXN 2011 ... But those contenders
present a serious challenge in 2012.
Bernie Montoya (Cibola AZ) proved
his exceptional ability on the track last spring with outstanding times
at the Mile (4:01.32) and 3200m (8:48.25) ... and he has been been
running well during this XC season ... As a handicapper, I need to
consider his ability to navigate the Portland Meadows conditions ... If
he is close near the end, Bernie Montoya may be very hard to
beat.
Jake Leingang (Bismarck ND) and
Sam Wharton (Tippecanoe OH) both qualified for Footlocker Nationals
as well NXN, and that demonstrates their outstanding abilities ... Both
are experienced in national-class races and racing at Portland Meadows
... and that makes them serious contenders for the top spot.
Joe Hardy (Seattle Prep WA) has
raced really well in 2012 ... As noted above, Taylor (Kai) Wilmot
(North Central WA) is remarkably talented, but is coming off an injury
... Jacob Burcham (Cabell Midland WV) has excellent proven track
ability plus very good XC performances.
Others in the list below are real
contenders ... This may be the deepest NXN ever at the boy's elite level ...
Should be an interesting race.
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