Pre-season team rankings have problems: ... first, they are based (in large part) on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.
What good are pre-season rankings?
(1) a fun topic of
conversation during the
summer
(2) beneficial in gathering background information
for the upcoming season
Once the XC season starts, I rank individual runners and teams based strictly on performance during the current season ... So pre-season rankings are not used during the season.
For the most part, the team listing below is just an extension of the 2010 XC season into 2011 with a few modifications ... IF data for 5 runners on each team was not readily available (or guess-able), that team is probably NOT included below ... With rare exceptions, I ignored last year's modified runners.
Initially, the Combined Class List included 70+ teams, but I began removing teams with lower scores to make computer race simulations more manageable ... Other teams could be included, but time constraints are necessary ... Data on selected teams by class is also posted including relevant track times at 3000m, 1500m, 1-Mile and Steeplechase.
Remember ... this list is just an
informational starting point ... I posted
scores by individual class (because some people are interested
)
... A lot can change between early August and November.
NOTE ... All team classes assume the proposed class cut-off numbers will be adopted ... New York is going from five classes in 2010 to four classes in 2011...
Pre-Season Projection - New York Girls Team Contenders - 2011
--------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------
Scores Using Top 38 Teams Scores Using Top 18 Teams
--------------------------------------- ----------------------------------------
Section- Section-
Team Score Class Team Score Class
--------------------- ----- -------- --------------------- ----- --------
1 Fayetteville-Manlius 35 (03-A ) 1 Fayetteville-Manlius 30 (03-A )
2 Saratoga 95 (02-A ) 2 Saratoga 80 (02-A )
3 North Shore 150 (08-B ) 3 North Shore 115 (08-B )
4 Burnt Hills 250 (02-B ) 4 Burnt Hills 195 (02-B )
5 Canandaigua 325 (05-A ) 5 Canandaigua 235 (05-A )
6 East Aurora 365 (06-B ) 6 East Aurora 260 (06-B )
7 Bronxville 365 (01-C ) 6 Bronxville 260 (01-C )
7 Guilderland 365 (02-A ) 6 Cicero-North Syracuse 260 (03-A )
7 North Rockland 365 (01-A ) 6 Guilderland 260 (02-A )
10 Northport 380 (11-A ) 6 North Rockland 260 (01-A )
10 Cicero-North Syracuse 380 (03-A ) 6 Northport 260 (11-A )
12 Shenendehowa 435 (02-A ) 12 Shenendehowa 315 (02-A )
13 Honeoye Falls-Lima 485 (05-B ) 13 Honeoye Falls-Lima 325 (05-B )
14 Penfield 500 (05-A ) 13 Penfield 325 (05-A )
15 Pittsford Mendon 520 (05-B ) 15 Holy Names 345 (02-B )
16 Colonie 530 (02-A ) 15 Pittsford Mendon 345 (05-B )
17 Holy Names 545 (02-B ) 17 Greenwich 360 (02-C )
18 Greenwich 550 (02-C ) 17 Colonie 360 (02-A )
19 Fairport 560 (05-A )
19 Niskayuna 560 (02-A )
21 St. Anthonys 550 (CHSAA)
22 Maple Grove 570 (06-D )
23 Ithaca 590 (04-A )
24 Rush-Henrietta 595 (05-A )
25 Pearl River 600 (01-B )
26 Warwick Valley 615 (09-A )
26 Queensbury 615 (02-B )
28 Sachem East 630 (11-A )
28 Nanuet 630 (01-B )
30 Monroe-Woodbury 675 (09-A )
30 Commack 675 (11-A )
32 Shaker 680 (02-A )
33 Clarence 690 (06-A )
34 Cornwall 695 (09-B )
35 Columbia 710 (02-A )
36 Tully 725 (03-C )
36 Bay Shore 725 (11-A )
38 Elmira District 730 (04-A )
Where did the scores come from?
... In part, the scores are a composite of computer race simulations using 2010 seasonal speed ratings ... a few speed rating ranges were altered
based on track results ... I manually manipulated some numbers (because
I wanted to).
Note
... The scores are simply my pre-season "guess" of relative team
abilities in a combined race ... I included 38 teams in one of the
composite team scores above because I wanted to include Tully.
In General ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the odds-on favorite entering the 2011 XC season ... FM is the five-time defending National champion and appears to be strong again this season ... Fayetteville-Manlius will (almost certainly) be the #1 ranked team in the nation entering XC 2011 ... FM is not only the odds-on favorite in NY, they are the odds-on favorite nationally.
Saratoga figures to be a very strong again and, most likely, the #2 ranked team nationally due to their remarkable depth.
North Shore is another NY powerhouse ... North Shore will likely be ranked in the top five nationally entering the season (and they should be) ... Their top two runners (Samantha Nadel and Brianna Nerud) could match-up well with anybody nationally (including FM) ... North Shore is is very strong at the #3 and #4 positions ... a modest improvement at the #5 position puts North Shore in contention for a podium-position at NXN Nationals and as a potential winner at NY Federations (assuming FM skips the Federation race again).
Additional information is given below by class.