Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   FM                     30           FM                     36
  2   Liverpool              55           Liverpool              76
  3   Baldwinsville          65           West Genesee           79
  4   West Genesee           95           Baldwinsville          81
  5   CNS                   100           CNS                   100
  6   Rome                  180           Rome                  192
  7   Central Square        200           Central Square        199
  8   Corcoran              250           Corcoran              233
  9   Proctor               280           Oswego                281
  10  Oswego                285           Proctor               284
  11  Henninger             310           Henninger             344
			

Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the top-ranked team in NY State and (possibly) a legitimate challenger to win NXN Nationals ... In terms of team scoring, the big question mark in the status of Alex Hatz who is coming-off kidney surgery during the pre-season (hopefully, Alex is returning to form ... the predicted score above assumes he runs at a level comparable to his Manhattan race).

Liverpool won the CNYCL League Meet beating Baldwinsville and CNS ... Liverpool and Baldwinsville have some very capable runners, but this race will require some great team performances to challenge FM.

Individual Race ... This could be a really good race between Colin Savage (Liverpool) and Brendan Farrell (FM) ... and a group of other runners are close behind - Paul Merriman (FM), Nate McCabe (Baldwinsville), Mark McGurrin (FM), Andrew Roache (FM), Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville), Steve Houghmaster (West Genesee), Chris Buchanan (CNS).
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Jamesville Dewitt      25           Jamesville Dewitt      33
  2   ESM                    65           ESM                    57
  3   Auburn                110           Auburn                 90
  4   Whitesboro            115           Whitesboro             96
  5   Nottingham            130           Fulton                126
  6   Watertown             130           Watertown             134
  7   Fulton                145           Nottingham            136
  8   Carthage              230           Carthage              226

Pre-Race Analysis ... Not much to analyze here ... Jamesville-Dewitt is the definite choice to win ... East Syracuse-Minoa is the choice to finish 2nd.

Individual Race ... Bumkoth Jiak (JD) and Dan Frank (JD) are the top two ranked Class A runners in Section 3.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Marcellus              45           Marcellus              36
  2   New Hartford           95           New Hartford           96
  3   South Jefferson       100           South Jefferson       108
  4   Chittenango           120           Chittenango           135
  5   Mexico                145           Mexico                159
  6   Grimes-Ludden         160           Westhill              176
  7   Homer                 190           Grimes-Ludden         179
  8   Westhill              192           Homer                 184
  9   Solvay                195           VVS                   207
  10  VVS                   200           Solvay                209
  11  Oneida                240           Oneida                262
  12  Camden                365           Cortland              363
  13  Cortland              365           Camden                370

Pre-Race Analysis ... Marcellus is a solid favorite in the Class B race (Marcellus won the OHSL Meet convincingly on a muddy course at Cato-Meridian) ... New Hartford finished 2nd to Holland Patent at the TVL League Meet, but South Jefferson (2nd at the Frontier League Meet) is very close ... Chittenango is within striking distance of 2nd-place.

Individual Race ... Jesse Garn (Marcellus), winner of the OHSL Meet, is the favorite ... Kevin Zych (Westhill), Josiah Durfee (Chittenango) and Nicholas Barletta (Grimes-Ludden) are next top-ranked Class B runners.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Holland Patent         65           Holland Patent         55
  1   Jordan-Elbridge        65           Jordan-Elbridge        71
  3   CBA                    85           Tully                  89
  4   Sauquoit Valley       110           Sauquoit Valley       109
  5   Tully                 110           CBA                   158
  6   Canastota             170           Canastota             202
  7   APW                   205           APW                   223
  8   Hannibal              220           Clinton               257
  9   Clinton               255           Hannibal              260
  10  Sherburne-Earl        270           Cazenovia             265
  11  Ilion                 280           Ilion                 266
  12  Skaneateles           285           Skaneateles           288
  13  Cazenovia             290           Sherburne-Earl        292
  14  Herkimer              385           Adirondack            333
  15  Adirondack            390           Herkimer              407

Pre-Race Analysis ... Five of the eight top-ranked Class C teams in the State are in this race - Holland Patent (#1),  Jordan-Elbridge (#2), CBA (#5), Sauquoit Valley (#6), and Tully (#8).

Just like last year entering sectionals, Holland Patent has been racing very well recently (very good team performance at the Adirondack Invitational ... convincing win at the TVL Meet ... close second to West Genesee at the Marathon Invitational) ... Overall, the computer simulations give a slight advantage to Jordan-Elbridge, so Jordan-Elbridge should be considered a co-favorite ... however, Holland Patent's consistency (through all five scorers) could be their winning advantage ... Jordan-Elbridge finished 3rd at the OHSL Meet (top runner Cody Stanton dropped-out in mid-race, and that probably added 50+ points to their team score). 

Holland Patent beat Jordan-Elbridge on a tie-breaker at last year's sectionals ... Holland Patent beat Jordan-Elbridge on a tie-breaker at this year's Baldwinsville Invitational ... Could it happen again.

CBA has had a very good season ... CBA beat Jordan-Elbridge at the OHSL Meet (but as noted above, JE's top runner dropped-out of the race) ... Sauquoit Valley and Tully seem evenly matched for the next two spots ... Tully had the misfortune (during the season) of some injuries (stress fracture, bicycling accident) and current sickness (which is affecting many teams in the central NY area).

Individual Race ... Cody Stanton (JE) is the top-ranked Class C runner in Section 3 and the favorite to win sectionals (Cody ran a great race to win sectionals last year) ... A number of other runners are closely matched and should vie for top finishing places - Mike Marrero (JE), Dylan Racha (Holland Patent), Cody Racha (Holland Patent), Tom Voorheis (CBA), Ohure Sam (Tully) and others.
 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River           45           Beaver River           38
  2   Cooperstown           100           Cooperstown            84
  3   Fabius-Pompey         160           Fabius-Pompey         125
  4   Pulaski               160           LaFayette             152
  5   LaFayette             165           South Lewis           202
  6   Oriskany              195           Oriskany              203
  7   South Lewis           200           Pulaski               211
  8   Hamilton              280           Cato-Meridian         282
  9   Port Byron            300           Port Byron            303
  10  Utica Notre Dame      315           Sandy Creek           305
  11  Cato Meridian         340           Utica Notre Dame      311
  12  Weedsport             340           Weedsport             321
  13  Sandy Creek           340           Onondaga              326
  14  Onondaga              340           Poland                331
  15  West Canada           370           Westmoreland          348
  16  Poland                380           West Canada           349
  17  Westmoreland          380           Hamilton              363
  18  Old Forge             395           Little Falls          434
  19  Little Falls          410           New York Mills        454
  20  New York Mills        530

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River enters the Class "D" race as the favorite once again (they are the #2 ranked Class D team in the State) ... Beaver River is the Frontier League champion and they just won their division at the Adirondack Invitational ... Cooperstown finished 2nd to Sauquoit Valley at the CSC League Meet.

If all seasonal runners compete for LaFayette, they are projected to finish 3rd, but several runners did not compete at OHSL or the Liverpool Invitational (so I'm not sure what to do about that) ... Fabius-Pompey and Pulaski seen evenly-matched for this race.

Individual Race ... Previously home-schooled runner Caleb Edmonds (Cooperstown) is the favorite to win with Matt Cheney (Beaver River) 2nd.

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   FM                     15           FM                     15
  2   Liverpool              65           CNS                    69
  3   CNS                    85           West Genesee           82
  4   West Genesee          110           Liverpool             101
  5   Baldwinsville         130           Baldwinsville         138
  6   Central Square        140           Central Square        148
  7   Rome                  235           Corcoran              232
  8   Oswego                240           Oswego                241
  9   Corcoran              255           Rome                  241
  10  Proctor               290           Proctor               279
  11  Henninger             315
 
								

Pre-Race Analysis ... The Fayetteville-Manlius girls are the defending National Champions and the #1 ranked team in the nation ... FM scored a perfect 15 the last two years  ... It could happen again this year, but Laura Leff (West Genesee) may be capable of breaking up the top five FM runners ... at McQuaid, Laura Leff was running very close to the top two Saugus girls with 800 meters to go (unfortunately, she began to hyper-ventilate and dropped-out) and she did break-up the top five FM runners at the CNYCL American Championships.

Liverpool performed very nicely to win the CNYCL National Championship (they beat CNS and Baldwinsville).

Individual Race ... Somebody from FM will win.

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Jamesville-Dewitt      35           Jamesville-Dewitt          29
  2   Whitesboro             70           Whitesboro                 58
  3   Auburn                 70           Auburn                     79
  4   Fulton                105           Fulton                    107
  5   ESM                   110           ESM                       119
  6   Nottingham            145           Nottingham                154
  
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... Jamesville-Dewitt is the favorite (JD finished 5th at the OHSL Meet) ... Whitesboro finished 4th the TVL League Meet ... Auburn drops-down from Class AA last year (they finished 5th at the CNYCL American Meet)

Individual Race ... Eileen Cody (JD) is the top-ranked Class A runner with Katie Day (Whitesboro) 2nd and Meghan Visser (ESM) 3rd.

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Marcellus              80           Marcellus              71
  2   New Hartford           80           New Hartford           76
  3   Westhill              100           Westhill               81
  4   VVS                   140           Mexico                125
  5   Grimes-Ludden         140           Grimes-Ludden         144
  6   Mexico                145           VVS                   151
  7   South Jefferson       165           Chittenango           166
  8   Oneida                190           South Jefferson       183
  9   Chittenango           200           Homer                 193
  10  Homer                 230           Oneida                218
  11  Phoenix               285           Solvay                308
  12  Solvay                290
  13  Camden                360
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... The Class B race appears to be "even-up" between Marcellus and New Hartford with Westhill within striking distance ... Marcellus finished 3rd at the OHSL Meet and New Hartford won the TVL League Meet ... Westhill was 6th at OHSL (in the mud) and could surprise with an improved performance.

Marcellus and New Hartford raced head-to-head in the Varsity C Race at Manhattan with Marcellus prevailing 263 to 311 (Marcellus was 8th overall in that race) ... but that race had 26 teams and the distance was only 2.5-miles.

Individual Race ... Tia Bullard (Mexico) is the top-ranked Class B runner and the favorite to win with Rachel Garn (Marcellus) 2nd ... Several runners looked closely matched for the following spots - Savannah Boucher (New Hartford), Betsy Black (Grimes-Ludden), Lauren McDonald (VVS) and Jessica Curry (Grimes-Ludden).

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Tully                  35           Tully                  41
  2   CBA                    70           Holland Patent         65
  3   Holland Patent         85           CBA                    86
  4   Sauquoit Valley       115           Cazenovia             101
  5   Cazenovia             130           Sauquoit Valley       120
  6   Canastota             145           Canastota             140
  7   Skaneateles           180           Skaneateles           193
  8   Jordan-Elbridge       230           Jordan-Elbridge       223
  9   Clinton               245           Ilion                 251
  10  Ilion                 260           Adirondack            255
  11  Adirondack            290
  12  APW                   370

							

Pre-Race Analysis ... Like the Section 3 Boys, the Section 3 Class C Girls have a group of teams State-ranked - Tully (#3), CBA (#4), Holland Patent (#7), and Sauquoit Valley (#11).

Tully won the OHSL Championship meet (beating CBA by 82 to 112, but that was in the mud) ... Tully's advantage is good team-depth through 10 runners (and 10 runners can compete at sectionals) ... Two of Tully's top seven runners (entering the season) are recovering from the H1N1 flu, and their effectiveness at sectionals remains to be seen ... Unfortunately, many teams in all classes may be affected by sickness.

Individual Race ... Allison Lasnicki (Canastota) is the clear favorite with Katie Brislin (CBA) next.

 

                      Predicted                              Actual
      School              Score           School              Score
      ==================  =====           ==================  =====
  1   Pulaski                60           Beaver River           46
  2   Beaver River           70           Pulaski                50
  3   Fabius-Pompey          80           Fabius-Pompey          79
  4   LaFayette             125           South Lewis           131
  5   Remsen                145           LaFayette             145
  6   South Lewis           175           Cooperstown           172
  7   Weedsport             180           Weedsport             175
  8   Utica Notre Dame      200           Utica Notre Dame      178
  9   Cooperstown           200           West Canada           248
  10  Old Forge             215           Poland                270
  11  Port Byron            330           Port Byron            283
  12  West Canada           350           Westmoreland          333
  13  Poland                365           Sandy Creek           358
  14  Westmoreland          370           Oriskany              372
  15  Oriskany              430           New York Mills        429
  16  Sandy Creek           450
  17  New York Mills        520
				

Pre-Race Analysis ... This race is a bit difficult to predict because there is a "fair amount" of inconsistency amongst runners of the top teams ... Pulaski, Beaver River and Fabius-Pompey could have a very close and interesting race.

Pulaski was Class C last year ... Pulaski finished a very decent 4th at the OHSL Meet and is the slight favorite ... Beaver River won the Frontier League Meet and a division of the Adirondack Invitational (indicating they are capable of winning this race) ... Fabius-Pompey came-on nicely at the end of last year to win sectionals, and they are within striking distance with a great team performance.

Individual Race ... Katie Weisenburger (Pulaski) won the OHSL Meet handily and is the favorite to win ... Victoria Campanian (South Lewis) won both the Frontier League meet and a division of the Adirondack Invitational making her the second choice in the individual title.