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 Federation Championship 2009 - Predictions

 

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I knew ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 18, 2009 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet  ...

Actual Scores added November 22, 2009 ...

[ Girls Prediction ]

 

 BOYS Federation Champ 2009 ...  North Rockland the favorite
 

                          Predicted                                       Actual
     School                 Score     Sect         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   North Rockland          125     (01-AA)       North Rockland            132 
 2   Liverpool               145     (03-AA)       Burnt Hills               169 
 3   Burnt Hills             150     (02-A )       Warwick Valley            192 
 4   Shaker                  175     (02-AA)       Shaker                    194 
 5   Chaminade               226     (CHSAA)       Chaminade                 198 
 6   Warwick Valley          227     (09-AA)       Shenendehowa              208 
 7   St. Anthony's           229     (CHSAA)       Liverpool                 209 
 8   Shenendehowa            229     (02-AA)       Rush-Henrietta            226 
 9   Port Washington         265     (08-AA)       Baldwinsville             268 
 10  Rush-Henrietta          285     (05-AA)       St. Anthony's             273 
 11  Washingtonville         330     (09-AA)       Arlington                 278 
 12  Bayport-Blue Pt         335     (11-B )       Port Washington           292 
 13  Baldwinsville           340     (03-AA)       Holland Patent            319 
 14  Holland Patent          360     (03-C )       West Genesee              322 
 15  Brewster                360     (01-A )       Bayport-Blue Point        347 
 16  West Genesee            360     (03-AA)       Cicero-North Syracuse     350 
 17  Arlington               400     (01-AA)       Washingtonville           380 
 18  Cicero-North Syracuse   453     (03-AA)       Brewster                  383 
 19  Collegiate              500     (AIS  )       McKee/S.I. Tech           516 
 20  Brooklyn Tech           514     (PSAL )       Brooklyn Tech             536 
 21  Curtis                  524     (PSAL )       Collegiate                576 
 22  Monsignor Farrell       543     (CHSAA)       Fordham Prep              583 
 23  St. John Bapt           576     (CHSAA)       Bronx Science             616 
 24  McKee/Staten            604     (PSAL )       Monsignor Farrell         617 
 25  Fordham Prep            611     (CHSAA)       St. John The Baptist      617 
 26  Bronx HS Sci            660     (PSAL )       Canisius                  652 
 27  Canisius                710     (CHSAA)       Curtis                    751 
		

Pre-Race Analysis ... NOTE ... Both the Boys & Girls predictions were quick simulations ... Like last year, I decided not to spent much time evaluating this year's Federation races.

North Rockland is the favorite ... North Rockland is very familiar with Bowdoin Park and race well there.

Liverpool and Burnt Hills appear close ... Liverpool has at least two runners recovering from the flu (top runner Colin Savage raced at sectionals while sick and finished 3rd for the team while Nick Hull was unable to run sectionals); the score above assumes they can run effectively ... Burnt Hills was 4th in the State Meet merge, but 2nd of the teams competing at Feds (FM and Honeoye Falls declined the Fed invitation).

Shaker beat Burnt Hills in the merge at Section2 sectionals ... With a great performance, Shaker is not that far out of the top spot.

I don't see much that separates Chaminade, Warwick Valley, St. Anthony's and Shenendehowa ... and Port Washington raced very well at the State Meet (beating Shenendehowa).

The teams in the 11th through the 16th positions above have a fair amount a variability (inconsistencies, etc.) ... Some appear capable of moving up significantly (e.g. Baldwinsville with a great team performance) ... The predicted places are very uncertain.

Individual Race ... Nick Hughes is the top rated runner in NY (he had the fastest time at the State Meet and won impressively), but he has some very serious competition for the win ... Quinn Raseman (Ward Melville) was 2nd to Hughes at States ... Shaun Thompson (Baldwinsville) was 3rd in the Class AA race at States ... Otis Ubriaco (Burnt Hills) pulled away impressively at States to win the Class A race ... Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) finished 2nd at Feds last year, and had a good battle with Brandon Freyer (Pawling) at States (Freyer is not entered at Feds) ... Mike Champagne (Seton Catholic) impressively won the Class D race at States, and popped a very good race at Bowdoin Park earlier in the season.

Eddie Owens (Packer Collegiate) could be the surprise in this race ... Eddie Owens beat Brandon Freyer earlier in the season at Somers and Owens won a division of the Section 1 Coaches Invite at Bowdoin ... He easily won the 3.5-mile NYSAIS Championship after being mis-directed off the course and losing 20-25 seconds (his estimated speed rating was still about 178 despite the lost time) ... Eddie Owens then ran a 16:09 time at a NYRR 5K at Van Cortlandt Park (same course as the PSAL) (the estimated speed rating may be in the upper 180s).

 

 

 GIRLS Federation Champ 2009 ... Saratoga the favorite
 

                          Prediction                                      Actual
     School                 Score     Sect         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Saratoga                 58     (02-AA)       Saratoga                   63
 2   Shenendehowa             82     (02-AA)       Shenendehowa               67
 3   Queensbury              105     (02-A )       Queensbury                148
 4   East Aurora             149     (06-B )       Arlington                 179
 5   North Shore             200     (08-B )       East Aurora               196
 6   Arlington               205     (01-AA)       Ward Melville             237
 7   Northport               215     (11-AA)       Northport                 241
 8   North Rockland          225     (01-AA)       Pittsford Mendon          252
 9   Ward Melville           250     (11-AA)       Warwick Valley            277
 10  Warwick Valley          269     (09-AA)       St. John The Baptist      288
 11  Pittsford Mendon        288     (05-A )       North Shore               295
 12  St. John the Baptist    310     (CHSAA)       Tappan Zee                296
 13  Smithtown               311     (11-AA)       Smithtown                 296
 14  Pearl River             325     (01-B )       Pearl River               321
 15  Tappan Zee              365     (01-A )       North Rockland            327
 16  Bronxville              375     (01-C )       Ithaca                    350
 17  Ithaca                  392     (04-AA)       Bronxville                383
 18  St. John Villa          483     (CHSAA)       HS Health Pro             486
 19  Sacred Heart            594     (CHSAA)       St. John Villa            552
 20  Kellenberg              597     (CHSAA)       Kellenberg                554
 21  St. Anthony's           618     (CHSAA)       St. Anthony's             576
 22  HS Health Pro           653     (PSAL )       Sacred Heart              640
 23  Hackley                 665     (AIS  )       Curtis                    659
 24  Curtis                  697     (PSAL )       Hackley School            677
 25  Nardin Academy          748     (CHSAA)       Port Richmond             704
 26  Tottenville             749     (PSAL )       Nardin Academy            717
 27  Port Richmond           754     (PSAL )       Tottenville               730

Pre-Race Analysis ... The race is missing some very good NY teams (such as Fayetteville-Manlius, Monroe-Woodbury, Burnt Hills, Honeoye Fall-Lima, and Greenwich) ... BUT this is still a very high quality race and a nice prize for the winning team.

Saratoga is deep and talented ... their depth through all seven runners is a big advantage.

Queensbury and Shenedehowa appear fairly evenly-matched, but Shenendehowa appears stronger at the #5 position with a good team performance.

There is a bit of scoring gap to East Aurora which did not exist in the State merge (which was Queensbury 184, East Aurora 191); performance at the #4 and #5 positions really matters.

North Shore is projected at the 5th-position (Brianna Welch returned to racing at States and ran quite decently despite her injuries and time-away from training) ... Several other teams are very close (Arlington, Northport and North Rockland).

Individual Race ... Aisling Cuffe (Cornwall) is the top-rated runner in NY (and one of the top three in the nation) ... Aisling Cuffe won the State Class A race easily and remarkably fast ... Emily Lipari (Roslyn) is the defending Federation champion from 2007 and 2008 ... Unfortunately, Emily Lipari was unable to compete at States due to a lower leg (ankle) injury, BUT she is listed in the entries ... I do not know her status (hopefully she is healthy which could set-up a great race with Cuffe).

Several top runners that are closely rated include Keelin Hollowood (Saratoga), Danielle Winslow (Queensbury), Brittany Winslow (Queensbury), Lizzie Predmore (Shen), Nicole Irving (Shen), Samantha Nadel (North Shore), and Megan Young (Nanuet).