| Federation Championship 2008 - Predictions |
| Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I knew ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 12, 2008 ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet ... |
[ Girls Prediction ]
| BOYS Federation Champ 2008 ... Shenendehowa a solid favorite |
Predicted Actual
School Score Sect School Score
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1 Shenendehowa 55 (02-AA) Shenendehowa 93
2 Burnt Hills 165 (02-A ) Burnt Hills 151
3 Honeoye Falls-Lima 185 (05-B ) Shoreham Wading River 157
4 Shoreham-Wading River 195 (11-B ) Honeoye Falls-Lima 185
5 Queensbury 225 (02-A ) Queensbury 210
6 Wantagh 260 (08-A ) Arlington 240
7 North Rockland 270 (01-AA) North Rockland 255
8 Arlington 280 (01-AA) East Aurora 270
9 Chaminade 290 (CHSAA) Liverpool 273
10 Pittsford Mendon 305 (05-A ) Chaminade 280
11 Liverpool 310 (03-AA) Pittsford Mendon 281
12 Suffern 315 (01-AA) Suffern 308
13 St. Anthony's 325 (CHSAA) Wantagh 311
14 Washingtonville 330 (09-AA) Brockport 337
15 McKee/Staten 335 (PSAL ) McKee/Staten 347
16 East Aurora 345 (06-B ) West Genesee 359
17 West Genesee 350 (03-AA) Washingtonville 368
18 Brockport 380 (05-AA) Windsor 397
19 Windsor 430 (04-B ) Canisius 399
20 Bishop Ford 435 (CHSAA) Bishop Ford 429
21 Canisius 435 (CHSAA) St. Anthony's 454
22 Holy Trinity 545 (CHSAA) Curtis 505
23 Curtis 545 (PSAL ) Stuyvesant 592
24 Regis 625 (CHSAA) Holy Trinity 641
25 Collegiate 650 (AIS ) Regis 683
26 Stuyvesant 660 (PSAL ) Collegiate 691
27 Brooklyn Tech 670 (PSAL ) Brooklyn Tech 776
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Post-Race Comments ... Overall, the team predictions were decent (several teams did not have good races, but that's normal at Federations) ... Alex Leuchanka (Shenendehowa) won the individual title in a very competitive race with Max Straneva (Chenango Valley). Pre-Race Analysis ... NOTE ... Both the Boys & Girls predictions were quick simulations ... Like last year, I decided not to spent much time evaluating this year's Federation races. Shenendehowa ... Shen appears to be the overwhelming favorite ... Shen ran very well at States on a challenging course (their speed ratings indicate that Shenendehowa is a serious contender to win the National NXN race. Burnt Hills won the State Class A race handily without their best team performance ... Burnt Hills finished 5th in the team merge, but they are capable of doing better ... With a more consistent team performance, Burnt Hills gets the call to finish second behind Shen; however, an overall performance similar to States will could drop Burnt Hills several spots in the final team scores. Honeoye Falls-Lima had an exceptional performance at States (Class B) and a repeat could easily place them second to Shen ... Shoreham-Wading River is a very good team ... a top team performance could well result in a 2nd-place finish. Queensbury did not race at States (Burnt Hills was the Section 2 qualifying team in Class A) ... However, three Queensbury individuals did race at States and ran quite decently (speed ratings of 177, 176 and 173) ... I suspect Queensbury was the first at-large team selected to Feds (from the teams not competing at States). As the predictions above show, there are a group of teams reasonably close in the projections following Queensbury ... North Rockland and Arlington are very familiar with Bowdoin Park, so I expect them to race well ... Wantagh is very talented ... Chaminade is projected as the top CHSAA team (followed by St. Anthony's). Individual Race ... Alex Leuchanka (Shenendehowa) had the fastest time at States of all runners competing at Feds (Alex Hatz is not racing), and this makes him a slight favorite in my opinion (since he has been running fast in other meets as well) ... Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus) has had a great season and should be considered a co-favorite (I did not think he was competing at Feds after his exhausting race at Sunken Meadow ... the same "exhaustion" also occurred at the Marathon Invite ... hopefully, these efforts didn't take too much out of him). Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) won comfortably at States ... It required an all-out effort by Chris Stogsdill to beat Straneva at the Marathon Invite ... Straneva is capable of running in front or following-along - and that makes him very competitive in championship races. A fair number of other runners are certainly in contention with an exceptional personal performance ... Mike Hickey (Pearl River), John Muller (Arlington), Quinn Raseman (Ward Melville), Bobby Andrews (Shoreham WR), Alex Deir (HFL) and others.
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| GIRLS Federation Champ 2008 ... |
Prediction Actual
School Score Sect School Score
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1 Saratoga 65 (02-AA) Burnt Hills 69
2 Burnt Hills 75 (02-A ) Saratoga 82
3 Queensbury 100 (02-A ) Queensbury 98
4 Shenendehowa 110 (02-AA) Shenendehowa 134
5 East Aurora 210 (06-B ) East Aurora 168
6 Pearl River 240 (01-B ) North Shore 210
7 Cornwall 245 (09-A ) Pearl River 255
8 North Shore 295 (08-B ) Arlington 259
9 Canandaigua 295 (05-A ) Greenwich 272
10 Arlington 310 (01-AA) Canandaigua 274
11 Bay Shore 310 (11-AA) Bay Shore 285
12 Northport 310 (11-AA) Monroe-Woodbury 318
13 Greenwich 320 (02-D ) Guilderland 366
14 Guilderland 325 (02-AA) Northport 380
15 Monroe-Woodbury 330 (09-AA) Bronxville 388
16 Bronxville 365 (01-C ) Cornwall 393
17 St. Anthony's 365 (CHSAA) St. John The Baptist 399
18 St. John the Baptist 370 (CHSAA) St. Anthony's 457
19 St. John Villa 430 (CHSAA) St. John Villa 472
20 Kellenberg 576 (CHSAA) Kellenberg 605
21 Curtis 620 (PSAL ) Tottenville 615
22 Tottenville 635 (PSAL ) HS Health Prof 634
23 Poly Prep 680 (AIS ) Nardin Academy 662
24 HS Health Prof 730 (PSAL ) Laguardia 683
25 Laguardia 735 (PSAL ) Curtis 699
26 Notre Dame 745 (CHSAA) Poly Prep 722
27 Nardin Academy 765 (CHSAA) Notre Dame Academy 744
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Post-Race Comments ... Overall, the predictions were decent with no real surprises ... Emily Lipari (Roslyn) defended her Federation title as expected with Aisling Cuffe (Cornwall) second and Danielle Winslow (Queensbury) third. Pre-Race Analysis ... The absence of Fayetteville-Manlius makes this tighter race for the Federation championship ... Saratoga edged Burnt Hills in the State Meet merge (82 to 84) ... At the Section 2 championships, Saratoga and Burnt Hills tied in the merge (54 to 54 with Saratoga having the better 6th-finisher) ... Obviously, these teams are quite evenly matched in terms of team scoring ... The computer simulations have them both winning a significant percentage of simulated races, so either team could be considered a favorite. Saratoga appears to have an average 10 point spread over Burnt Hills in this particular race (somehow that surprised me) ... I will not be surprised if Burnt Hills pops a big performance and wins by a respectable margin ... and I will not be surprised if Saratoga wins impressively (they have already exceeded my expectations this season) ... This is a good matchup. Queensbury and Shenedehowa can not be counted out for the win ... Both have excellent teams and are capable of challenging with exceptional team performances. There is sizeable scoring gap to East Aurora (behind Shen and the other three Section 2 teams) ... a similar gap occurred in the State Meet merge ... The projections put Pearl River very slightly ahead of Cornwall (although Cornwall finished ahead of Pearl River in the State merge); Pearl River has raced well at Bowdoin Park (and that could be the reason). The projections (8th-place to 15th-place) are quite close ... most of these teams have shown some variability, so I expect anything might happen there. Individual Race ... Emily Lipari (Roslyn) is the defending Federation champion and a Footlocker Finalist from 2007 ... Lipari is peaking at the right time of the season (again) and has demonstrated excellent closing speed in both XC and track ... It will be tough to beat Lipari if she runs well. However, this race features some other exceptional runners capable of winning ... Shelby Greany (Suffern), Aisling Cuffe (Cornwall), Danielle Winslow (Queensbury), Lizzie Predmore (Shenendehowa), Samantha Roecker (Burnt Hills) and others.
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