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  Team Predictions - NXN Northeast & NY Qualifiers 2008

Site ... Bowdoin Park, Wappingers Falls, NY - November 29, 2008

Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... I used seven runners from each team as best as I knew ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 25, 2008 ...... Actual Scores Added November 29, 2008

 

Boys Northeast ] ... [ Boys NY ] ... [ Girls Northeast ] ... [ Girls NY ]

 

 Boys Northeast NXN Qualifier - New Jersey top two picks
 

                              Predicted                               ACTUAL
     School Team                Score       School Team                Score
     =======================   =======      =========================  =====
 1   West Windsor P North NJ      72        West Windsor P. North NJ     71 
 2   Don Bosco  NJ                83        Don Bosco NJ                 75 
 3   North Penn PA               114        North Allegheny PA           83 
 4   North Allegheny PA          145        Danbury CT                  122 
 5   Danbury CT                  170        Morris Hills NJ             148 
 6   Bishop Guertin NH           196        North Penn PA               166 
 7   Christian Bros  NJ          208        Bishop Guertin NH           181 
 8   Haddonfield Mem NJ          215        Christian Bros  NJ          239 
 9   Mansfield MA                244        Old Bridge NJ               248 
 10  Morris Hills NJ             252        Mendham NJ                  255 
 11  Mendham NJ                  284        Mansfield MA                259 
 12  Germantown Friends PA       286        Germantown Friends PA       270 
 13  Bishop Hendricken RI        289        Bishop Hendricken RI        278 
 14  Merrimack NH                316        Amherst Regional MA         297 
 15  Conard CT                   318        Conard CT                   310 
 16  Amherst Regional MA         325         ---
 17  Old Bridge NJ               370         ---
		
Pre-Race Analysis ... Link to NE Boys List of Individual Runner Projections (speed ratings used to project team scores).

West Windsor Plainsboro North (NJ) is the projected winner (they won the New Jersey MOC very impressively last Saturday) ... Don Bosco (NJ) also ran well at the New Jersey MOC and is predicted to grab the second automatic qualifying bid to NXN Nationals.

North Penn (PA) and North Allegheny (PA) are projected 3rd and 4th ... Neither team ran their best at the PA State Meet (both had better ratings at their respective PA District meets which are factored into the predictions) ... North Penn could win an automatic qualifying spot if they duplicate their excellent speed performance from the Manhattan Invitational ... Danbury (CT) is not far behind and could better the prediction.

Sophomore Joe Rosa (West Windsor Plainsboro N) finished second at the NJ MOC and is favored to be the individual winner of the race.

 

 

 Boys New York NXN Qualifier - Shenendehowa & FM favored to qualify
 

                              Predicted                                       ACTUAL
     School                    Score    Section       School                   Score
     ===================      =======   =======       =====================    =====
 1   Shenendehowa                68      02-AA        Shenendehowa               62
 2   Fayetteville-Manlius        79      03-AA        Fayetteville-Manlius       70
 3   Burnt Hills                113      02-A         Honeoye Falls-Lima         82
 4   Shoreham-Wading River      116      11-B         Shoreham Wading River      83
 5   Honeoye Falls-Lima         121      05-B         Burnt Hills               109
 6   Arlington                  145      01-AA        Arlington                 144
 7   Warwick Valley             172      09-AA        McKee/Staten              182
 8   East Aurora                194      06-B         Rush Henrietta            203
 9   Monsignor Farrell          216      CHSAA        Port Washington           208
 10  McKee/Staten               225      PSAL         Monsignor Farrell         245
 11  Rush-Henrietta             227      05-AA        --- (no East Aurora)
 12  Port Washington            263      08-AA        --- (no Warwick Valley)
		
Pre-Race Analysis ... Shenendehowa is favored (they won both States and Federations) ... However (in terms of speed), Shen's performance at States was significantly better than at Feds (average speed rating of 185.5 vs 179.6) ... If Shenendehowa repeats their Federation performance in this race, Fayetteville-Manlius is likely to win (but I expect Shen will run better).

Very little separates Burnt Hills, Shoreham Wading River and Honeoye Falls-Lima ... all are within reach of an automatic qualifying spot ... Burnt Hills beat FM at the McQuaid Invite earlier in the season which may come into play regarding NXN "points" and "at-large" selections.

The top finisher is likely to be either Alex Hatz (FM), Alex Leauchanka (Shen) or Max Straneva (Chenango Valley) ... Otis Ubriaco (Burnt Hills), Alex Deir (HFL), Bobby Andrews (SWR), Paul Merriman (FM), Mike Hickey (Pearl River), Adam Doherty (Arlington) and John Muller (Arlington) may be close as well.

 

 

 Girls Northeast NXN Qualifier - Massachusetts top two picks
 

                              Predicted                               ACTUAL
     School Team                Score       School Team                Score
     =======================   =======      =========================  =====
 1   Newton South MA              48        Lincoln Sudbury MA           53
 2   Lincoln-Sudbury MA           61        Newton South MA              66
 3   Emmaus PA                    90        Glastonbury CT               93
 4   Glastonbury CT              123        Phillips Andover MA         119
 5   Phillips Andover MA         125        Emmaus PA                   120
 6   Ridge  NJ                   196        South Brunswick NJ          167
 7   Pope John XXIII NJ          212        La Salle Academy RI         183
 8   Red Bank Catholic NJ        212        Pope John XXIII NJ          214
 9   Toms River North NJ         225        Toms River North NJ         224
 10  La Salle Academy RI         228        Red Bank Catholic NJ        240
 11  South Brunswick NJ          245        Hunterdon NJ                279
 12  Barrington HS-RI            268        East Greenwich RI           290
 13  East Greenwich RI           316        Barrington HS-RI            310
 14  Holyoke Catholic MA         357        Holyoke Catholic MA         345
 15  Hunterdon NJ                391         ------
		
Pre-Race Analysis ... Link to NE Girls List of Individual Runner Projections (speed ratings used to project team scores).

Newton South (MA) and Lincoln-Sudbury (MA) are favored to finish one-two (that's how they finished at the MA State Meet) ... Emmaus (PA) is within striking distance and could win an automatic qualifying position with a great team performance.

Glastonbury (CT) and Phillips Academy (Andover, MA) seem evenly matched for the 4th and 5th spots ... Phillips Academy is a private prep school (they won the NEPSTA Division 1 Championship).

 

 

 Girls New York NXN Qualifier - Fayetteville-Manlius a solid favorite
 

                             Predicted                                        ACTUAL
     School                    Score    Section       School                   Score
     ===================      =======   =======       =====================    =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius        34      03-AA        Fayetteville-Manlius       25
 2   Burnt Hills                 66      02-A         Saratoga                   63
 3   Saratoga                    69      02-AA        Burnt Hills                71
 4   Queensbury                  82      02-A         Queensbury                 79
 5   Shenendehowa               104      02-AA        Shenendehowa              107
 6   East Aurora                149      06-B         East Aurora               134
 7   Arlington                  216      01-AA        Honeoye Falls-Lima        227
 8   Hilton                     253      05-AA        Arlington                 241
 9   Rush-Henrietta             254      05-AA        Hilton                    254
 10  Honeoye Falls-Lima         256      05-B         Rush Henrietta            272
 11  Fairport                   260      05-AA        Fairport                  295
		
Pre-Race Analysis ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the solid favorite (no surprise) ... FM skipped Federations to prepare for this race (and NXN Nationals).

Burnt Hills , Saratoga and Queensbury are separated by only 16 points in the projection ... Burnt Hills seems to be improving (they beat Saratoga and Queensbury at Federations), so they are the slight favorite to grab the second automatic qualifying spot to NXN ... Good performances by the top five Saratoga runners gives Saratoga a real shot at finishing second ... Queensbury is definitely within reach with a great performance (and Shenendehowa is capable also).

Very little (in terms of speed) separates the four Section 5 teams (flip a coin).

Courtney Chapman (FM) is favored to be the top finisher in the race (she won impressively at both sectionals and States) ... If Courtney Chapman had the opportunity to run Footlocker NE, I would make her a very solid favorite to quality (and possibly win the race) ... Danielle Winslow (Queensbury) and Samantha Roecker (Burnt Hills) are expected to be the next two finishers (Roecker seems to be rounding into form).

Samantha Nadel (North Shore), Amanda Mooreland (Bloomfield), Lizzie Predmore (Shen) and Roxanne Henningson (Greenwich) have decent chances at the five "Individual" qualify spots (for runners not on qualifying teams).

 

 

 Northeast - Boys Projected Team Scoring by Speed Ratings
 

Team                                                                          Team
Place   Runner                  Grade    School Team                 Rating   Score
-----   ----------------------  -----    -------------------------   ------   -----
1       Joe Rosa                  SO     West Windsor P North NJ      193.0    72
4       James Rosa                SO     West Windsor P North NJ      187.0
17      Ryan Sleeper              SR     West Windsor P North NJ      180.0
20      Tyler Corkedale           SR     West Windsor P North NJ      179.0
30      Anthony Lee               SR     West Windsor P North NJ      175.0
44      Jonathan Squeri           JR     West Windsor P North NJ      172.0
108     Stephen Ellwood           SR     West Windsor P North NJ      150.0

3       Leighton Spencer          SR     Don Bosco  NJ                188.0    83
12      Robert Molke              SR     Don Bosco  NJ                181.7
13      Rafael Vargas             JR     Don Bosco  NJ                181.0
26      Michael Belgiovine        JR     Don Bosco  NJ                176.5
29      Howard Rosas              JR     Don Bosco  NJ                175.3
53      Brendan Offer             SR     Don Bosco  NJ                169.7
71      Erik Lapinski             SO     Don Bosco  NJ                163.5

6       Brad Miles                11     North Penn PA                185.0    114
10      Sam Bernitt               11     North Penn PA                183.0
15      Brian Quintrell           12     North Penn PA                180.3
36      Tim Stauring              12     North Penn PA                173.7
47      Brian Kuntzmann           12     North Penn PA                171.3
55      Dominic Camasso           12     North Penn PA                169.5
114     Alex Dellobuono           10     North Penn PA                145.0

11      Ryan Gil                  10     North Allegheny PA           182.5    145
24      Chase Broussard           12     North Allegheny PA           177.7
32      Patrick Morgan            12     North Allegheny PA           175.0
33      Will Appman               12     North Allegheny PA           174.5
45      Eric Balaban              11     North Allegheny PA           172.0
65      Matt Robertson            12     North Allegheny PA           164.5
97      Jay Cadwallader           11     North Allegheny PA           156.0

5       Tucker Schaefer           12     Danbury CT                   185.5    170
27      Levi Wallace              12     Danbury CT                   176.0
28      Kevin Russell             12     Danbury CT                   175.9
52      Joseph Bubniak            12     Danbury CT                   170.0
58      Daniel Bubniak            12     Danbury CT                   166.0
62      Christopher Pristou       12     Danbury CT                   165.0
102     Unknown                          Danbury CT                   154.0

7       Hernandez, Francis        11     Bishop Guertin NH            185.0    196
18      LaCoste, Jeff             10     Bishop Guertin NH            180.0
21      Jourdain, Joey            11     Bishop Guertin NH            179.0
66      Fontanella, Trent         11     Bishop Guertin NH            164.1
84      Warren, Jeffrey           12     Bishop Guertin NH            162.0
95      Latham, Brandon           9      Bishop Guertin NH            157.0
119     Dow, Tim                  10     Bishop Guertin NH            133.8

8       Mike Mazzaccaro           10     Christian Bros  NJ           184.0    208
31      Dan Bailey                11     Christian Bros  NJ           175.0
35      Brendan Swan              12     Christian Bros  NJ           174.0
49      Dennis Smith              12     Christian Bros  NJ           171.0
85      Dan Mykityshyn            10     Christian Bros  NJ           161.0
90      Mark Lee                  11     Christian Bros  NJ           159.0
99      Peter Costa               11     Christian Bros  NJ           155.0

25      Jonathan Vitez            JR     Haddonfield Mem NJ           177.5    215
40      Colin Baker               JR     Haddonfield Mem NJ           172.5
46      Benjamin Potts            JR     Haddonfield Mem NJ           171.5
50      Matthew Nussbaum          SO     Haddonfield Mem NJ           171.0
54      Raymond Schlitt           JR     Haddonfield Mem NJ           169.5
91      David Twitchell           JR     Haddonfield Mem NJ           159.0
104     Ethan Quanci              SO     Haddonfield Mem NJ           153.0

22      Collins, Shayne           SO     Mansfield MA                 178.5    244
34      McGowan, Patrick          JR     Mansfield MA                 174.0
51      Grimes, Patrick           SR     Mansfield MA                 170.0
67      Boyle, Brendan            JR     Mansfield MA                 164.0
70      Meagher, Kevin            SR     Mansfield MA                 163.5
75      Hernon, Matt              JR     Mansfield MA                 162.6
112     Brodin, Josh              SR     Mansfield MA                 145.0

2       Sean Pohorence            SR     Morris Hills NJ              193.0    252
43      Tyler Hendrickson         SR     Morris Hills NJ              172.3
59      Vinny Chiusano            SR     Morris Hills NJ              165.9
68      Liam Tansey               SR     Morris Hills NJ              164.0
80      Lucas Clyne               SR     Morris Hills NJ              162.0
101     Joseph Barraro            SR     Morris Hills NJ              154.3
116     Christopher Bongo         SR     Morris Hills NJ              141.5

9       Michael Franklin          SR     Mendham NJ                   183.9    284
41      Ryan Savercool            SR     Mendham NJ                   172.5
61      Jon Riley                 SR     Mendham NJ                   165.5
81      Clay Rotar                SO     Mendham NJ                   162.0
92      James Frick               SR     Mendham NJ                   158.7
93      Peter Ehmann              FR     Mendham NJ                   158.0
115     Christian Herridge        SR     Mendham NJ                   142.5

19      Gus McKenzie              11     Germantown Friends PA        179.5    286
39      Tom Waterman              11     Germantown Friends PA        173.0
57      Ross Wistar               11     Germantown Friends PA        167.0
77      Evan Caldwell             10     Germantown Friends PA        162.5
94      David Waterman            10     Germantown Friends PA        158.0
100     Fenn Hoffman              12     Germantown Friends PA        154.7
109     Sam Butler, Jr            11     Germantown Friends PA        149.0

16      Jake Sienko               JR     Bishop Hendricken RI         180.2    289
48      Brian Doyle               JR     Bishop Hendricken RI         171.1
63      Jim Desmarais             SR     Bishop Hendricken RI         165.0
79      Alex DaPonte              JR     Bishop Hendricken RI         162.1
83      Ross Riordan              JR     Bishop Hendricken RI         162.0
87      Michael MacKenzie         JR     Bishop Hendricken RI         160.4
105     Ryan Meehan               SO     Bishop Hendricken RI         153.0

23      Harshman, Steve           11     Merrimack NH                 177.7    316
38      Conlin, John              9      Merrimack NH                 173.0
56      Haggerty, Ryan            12     Merrimack NH                 169.0
96      Dancy, Jake               12     Merrimack NH                 156.7
103     Busby, Chris              9      Merrimack NH                 153.9
106     Boardman, Craig           12     Merrimack NH                 153.0
118     johnson, Nicholas         10     Merrimack NH                 138.8

14      Bryan Marsh               12     Conard CT                    180.3    318
64      Kenneth Whitney           12     Conard CT                    164.5
69      Luke Perron               10     Conard CT                    164.0
73      Daniel Francoeur          11     Conard CT                    163.0
98      Nicholas RisCassi         12     Conard CT                    155.3
110     Stephen Clarke            12     Conard CT                    147.0
113     Fithawi Berhane           12     Conard CT                    145.0

37      Brigham, Atticus          SR     Amherst Regional MA          173.0    325
60      Dumont-McCaffrey, A       SR     Amherst Regional MA          165.5
74      Lawlor, Michael           SR     Amherst Regional MA          162.8
76      Elkinton, Barry           SR     Amherst Regional MA          162.5
78      Dannenhauer, Ray          SR     Amherst Regional MA          162.4
111     Tincknell, Evan           JR     Amherst Regional MA          145.1
117     Davies, Ian               SO     Amherst Regional MA          140.0

42      Billy Crane               SR     Old Bridge NJ                172.5    370
72      Corey O'Neill             JR     Old Bridge NJ                163.3
82      Moheb Thomas              JR     Old Bridge NJ                162.0
86      Vincent Vento             JR     Old Bridge NJ                161.0
88      Shawn Burke               SO     Old Bridge NJ                160.0
89      Eric Leight               SR     Old Bridge NJ                160.0
107     Sean Lunkenheimer         SR     Old Bridge NJ                152.0
		

 

 Northeast - Girls Projected Team Scoring by Speed Ratings
 

Team                                                                   Team
Place   Runner               Grade   School Team              Rating   Score
-----   -------------------  -----   -----------------------  ------   -----
3       Karys, Kelsey          SR    Newton South MA           137.1    48
5       Dahlberg, Bridget      SR    Newton South MA           134.2
10      Reed, Madeleine        JR    Newton South MA           131.0
13      O'Keefe, Kathy         SO    Newton South MA           128.5
17      Golovkina, Olga        SR    Newton South MA           124.0
36      Fineman, Melanie       JR    Newton South MA           111.7
72      May, Elizabeth         JR    Newton South MA           95.0

1       Keklak, Andrea         SO    Lincoln-Sudbury MA        138.1    61
7       Stock, Corey           FR    Lincoln-Sudbury MA        133.0
8       Hylton, Ellie          SR    Lincoln-Sudbury MA        133.0
19      Gossels, Jennifer      SR    Lincoln-Sudbury MA        123.5
26      Arthur, Claire         JR    Lincoln-Sudbury MA        118.0
50      Potter, Rachael        SR    Lincoln-Sudbury MA        103.0
57      Clarke, Holly          JR    Lincoln-Sudbury MA        99.0

4       Lindsey Graybill       12    Emmaus PA                 135.7    90
14      Amanda Faust           11    Emmaus PA                 126.3
16      Brianna Faust          11    Emmaus PA                 124.7
24      Christina Faust        11    Emmaus PA                 118.7
32      Melissa Meade          12    Emmaus PA                 113.7
68      Kelsey Coates          11    Emmaus PA                 95.7
80      Meaghan Zang           12    Emmaus PA                 86.0

6       Kristen Malloy         12    Glastonbury CT            134.0    123
12      Lindsay Crevoiserat    10    Glastonbury CT            128.7
25      Reid Watson            9     Glastonbury CT            118.7
27      Cara Dorris            9     Glastonbury CT            117.0
53      Charlotte Freeland     12    Glastonbury CT            101.5
54      Emily MacEwen          12    Glastonbury CT            101.0
81      Kimberly Halpin        11    Glastonbury CT            85.0

2       Abby Levene            12    Phillips Andover MA       137.5    125
21      Stephanie Moroney      12    Phillips Andover MA       122.4
22      Berol Dewdney          12    Phillips Andover MA       121.5
39      Georgina Norton        12    Phillips Andover MA       109.6
41      Caitlin Kingston       10    Phillips Andover MA       107.1
46      Aubrey Zimmerling      12    Phillips Andover MA       105.4
95      Becca MacRae           12    Phillips Andover MA       74.7

18      Dana Guglielmo         SR    Ridge  NJ                 124.0    196
31      Amanda Gracia          SR    Ridge  NJ                 114.7
35      Jackie Madden          JR    Ridge  NJ                 112.0
38      Francesca Carrone      SR    Ridge  NJ                 110.0
74      Sabina Bains           FR    Ridge  NJ                 93.0
83      Emily Bradford         JR    Ridge  NJ                 84.0
86      Caelainn Carney              Ridge  NJ                 82.0

20      Sarah Cariati          SR    Pope John XXIII NJ        122.5    212
34      Jenny Heigis           SR    Pope John XXIII NJ        112.0
43      Catherine Carey        JR    Pope John XXIII NJ        107.0
55      Marissa Galante        JR    Pope John XXIII NJ        101.0
60      Alicia Taylor          JR    Pope John XXIII NJ        98.7
73      Ashton Weiler          JR    Pope John XXIII NJ        94.0
103     Nicole DiGiacinto      SO    Pope John XXIII NJ        52.3

15      Michelle Capozzi       JR    Red Bank Catholic NJ      126.0    212
29      Molly McNamara         SO    Red Bank Catholic NJ      116.0
45      Emily Rooney           SR    Red Bank Catholic NJ      106.0
58      Michelle Savarese      SR    Red Bank Catholic NJ      99.0
65      Hannah Eckstein        SO    Red Bank Catholic NJ      97.0
84      Keely Eckberg          SR    Red Bank Catholic NJ      83.0
91      Katie Rochford         SR    Red Bank Catholic NJ      81.0

11      Angela Rugino          SR    Toms River North NJ       131.0    225
40      Andrea Mathis          SO    Toms River North NJ       108.0
51      Johanna Petruski       SO    Toms River North NJ       102.5
59      Cornelia Szymanski     JR    Toms River North NJ       99.0
64      Kelly Newcomb          JR    Toms River North NJ       98.0
79      Ashley Kotran          SO    Toms River North NJ       87.7
87      Jacqui Kemmer          JR    Toms River North NJ       82.0

30      Jean Christensen       SR    La Salle Academy RI       115.0    228
37      Emily Papazian         FR    La Salle Academy RI       111.0
42      Molly Keating          FR    La Salle Academy RI       107.0
56      Victoria Beardwood     JR    La Salle Academy RI       100.5
63      Caroline Capuano       SR    La Salle Academy RI       98.0
75      Danielle Renzi         SO    La Salle Academy RI       92.0
77      Siobahn Kelly          FR    La Salle Academy RI       91.0

28      Sophia Ginez           JR    South Brunswick NJ        116.5    245
33      Cayla Del Piano        FR    South Brunswick NJ        113.0
48      Jennifer Smilgis       JR    South Brunswick NJ        104.0
67      Lyndsey Sample         JR    South Brunswick NJ        96.0
69      Ashley Edwards         SR    South Brunswick NJ        95.7
96      Amanda Smilgis         JR    South Brunswick NJ        73.0
97      Kimberley McGrath      SR    South Brunswick NJ        73.0

23       Emily Siskind         JR    Barrington HS-RI          121.0    268
44       Molly Malinowski      SO    Barrington HS-RI          106.0
47       Sarah Barry           JR    Barrington HS-RI          104.0
66       Alexandra August      SO    Barrington HS-RI          96.5
88       Bianca Pearson-Jones  SR    Barrington HS-RI          81.0
101      Cara Quigley          SR    Barrington HS-RI          63.0
104      Grace To              SO    Barrington HS-RI          43.0

52      Therese Kerin          SR    East Greenwich RI         102.0    316
61      Spencer Dean           SR    East Greenwich RI         98.0
62      Laura Duff             SR    East Greenwich RI         98.0
70      Amanda Hallworth       SR    East Greenwich RI         95.0
71      Mollie Anderson        FR    East Greenwich RI         95.0
99      Kaeli O'Connell        SO    East Greenwich RI         65.0
100     Kirstin Kaija          SR    East Greenwich RI         64.0

9       Veit, Kristen          SR    Holyoke Catholic MA       131.0    357
82      Wolff, Rachael         JR    Holyoke Catholic MA       85.0
85      Kuntz, Maggie          SR    Holyoke Catholic MA       82.0
89      Sypek, Mary            SR    Holyoke Catholic MA       81.0
92      Powell, Christina      JR    Holyoke Catholic MA       78.0
93      Fisher, Erica          JR    Holyoke Catholic MA       76.0
94      Rezendes, Staci        FR    Holyoke Catholic MA       75.0

49      Allison Payenski       10    Hunterdon NJ              103.0    391
76      Jessica Krystek        10    Hunterdon NJ              91.0
78      Rashmi Singh           11    Hunterdon NJ              87.7
90      Kelsey Stecklow        10    Hunterdon NJ              81.0
98      Brigitte Mania         12    Hunterdon NJ              70.3
102     Juliana Lindner        11    Hunterdon NJ              63.0
105     Abigail Grossman       11    Hunterdon NJ              29.3