Predicted                                       Actual
     School                 Score     Sect         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Shenendehowa            134     (02-AA)       Shenendehowa             101
 2   Queensbury              168     (02-A )       Queensbury               159
 3   Shaker                  176     (02-AA)       Smithtown                175
 4   Smithtown               189     (11-AA)       Fayetteville-Manlius     199
 5   Arlington               221     (01-AA)       Shaker                   219
 6   Chaminade               234     (CHSAA)       Ithaca                   228
 7   Kellenberg              236     (CHSAA)       Scarsdale                239
 8   Fayetteville-Manlius    306     (03-AA)       Chaminade                253
 9   Ithaca                  307     (04-AA)       Liverpool                262
 10  Liverpool               307     (03-AA)       Arlington                284
 11  Burnt Hills             308     (02-A )       Pittsford-Mendon         300
 12  Washingtonville         308     (09-AA)       Tully                    320
 13  Scarsdale               319     (01-AA)       Washingtonville          367
 14  Penfield                329     (05-AA)       Newark Valley            373
 15  Shoreham-Wading River   342     (11-B )       Penfield                 380
 16  Pittsford Mendon        355     (05-A )       Kellenberg               391
 17  Newark Valley           379     (04-C )       Burnt Hills              393
 18  St. Anthony's           408     (CHSAA)       Shoreham-Wading River    394
 19  Tully                   408     (03-C )       Fordham Prep             402
 20  Fordham Prep            434     (CHSAA)       St. Anthony's            436
 21  Collegiate              458     (AIS  )       McKee/S.I. Tech          526
 22  Canisius                565     (CHSAA)       Stuyvesant               590
 23  Xavier                  590     (CHSAA)       Canisius                 605
 24  Stuyvesant              590     (PSAL )       Xavier                   608
 25  McKee/Staten            636     (PSAL )       Collegiate               673
 26  Midwood                 695     (PSAL )       Midwood                  695
 27  Curtis                  737     (PSAL )       Curtis                   767
		

Post-Race Comments ... Shenendehowa and Queensbury finished 1st and 2nd as expected.

As is normally in many Federation races, some teams run close to form, some teams run poorly (I won't talk about them)  and a few teams have exceptionally good races ... Fayetteville-Manlius ran much better than expected.

Pat Dupont (Fairport) won the individual championship with  the best performance to date by any NY runner - the winning time (15:52.1) places Dupont 10th on the all-time Bowdoin Park list ... Following were Kyle Merber (Half Hollow Hills West, 15:55.9, 13th all-time at Bowdoin), Zach Rivers (Victor, 15:58.6, 17th all-time at Bowdoin), Colby Delene (Pawling,16:03.5) and Giovanni Signoretti (Smithtown, 16:05.0).

Pre-Race Analysis ... NOTE ... Both the Boys & Girls predictions were quick simulations ... I decided not to spent much time evaluating this year's Federation races because several top teams opted-out of Feds in favor of preparing for NTN qualification the follow week (and I don't blame them).

Warwick Valley is the top team boy's in NY State, and they are not competing at Feds ... they handily won the Class AA race at States and finished 37 points ahead of Shenendehowa in the merged team score. 

Shenendehowa ... Shen appears to have a decent margin over fellow Section 2 teams Queensbury and Shaker ... Shaker ran very well at sectionals, due in large part, to season-best performances by several runners at key positions (they will need to duplicate those performances to have a shot at winning or finishing second) ... Queensbury's strength is their depth.

Arlington did not race well States ... but Arlington is very familiar with Bowdoin Park, so I expect an improved performance.

CHSAA rivals Chaminade and Kellenberg appear closely matched ... Just behind, a large "group" of teams seem basically even-up in this race (includes FM, Ithaca, Liverpool, Burnt Hills, Washingtonville and others close behind ).

Individual Race ... Fortunately for us spectators, the top NY boys will be toeing-the-line at Feds ... This should be a really good race between Pat Dupont (Fairport), Kyle Merber (Half Hallow Hills West), Zach Rivers (Victor), Giovanni Signoretti (Smithtown), Lee Berube (Ticonderoga), Colby Delbene (Pawling), Julian Sheinbaum (Scarsdale), Brendan Devine (Monticello), Dylan Trotzuk (Collegiate) and others.

 

                          Prediction                                      Actual
     School                 Score     Sect         School                  Score
     ===================    =====    =======       ==================      =====
 1   Fayetteville-Manlius     39     (03-AA)       Fayetteville-Manlius       26
 2   Saratoga                 95     (02-AA)       Saratoga                   80
 3   East Aurora             122     (06-B )       East Aurora               124
 4   Queensbury              127     (02-A )       Ward Melville             191
 5   Shenendehowa            169     (02-AA)       Arlington                 204
 6   Ward Melville           216     (11-AA)       Shenendehowa              212
 7   Arlington               273     (01-AA)       Honeoye Falls-Lima        241
 8   Suffern                 277     (01-AA)       Northport                 251
 9   Bronxville              277     (01-C )       Pittsford-Mendon          271
 10  Guilderland             277     (02-AA)       Bronxville                275
 11  Pittsford Mendon        295     (05-A )       Hilton                    288
 12  Hilton                  303     (05-AA)       Queensbury                304
 13  Colonie                 310     (02-AA)       Bay Shore                 353
 14  Honeoye Falls-Lima      315     (05-B )       Suffern                   361
 15  Northport               341     (11-AA)       Guilderland               364
 16  Bay Shore               370     (11-AA)       Colonie                   384
 17  St. John Villa          488     (CHSAA)       St. John Villa            488
 18  St. Johns Prep          517     (CHSAA)       Nardin Academy            506
 19  Nardin Academy          561     (CHSAA)       St. John Bapt             531
 20  St. Anthony's           568     (CHSAA)       St. Johns Prep            557
 21  St. John Bapt           576     (CHSAA)       Kellenberg Memorial       602
 22  Kellenberg              615     (CHSAA)       Curtis                    607
 23  Curtis                  684     (PSAL )       St. Anthony's             642
 24  Tottenville             704     (PSAL )       Tottenville               688
 25  HS Health Pro           750     (PSAL )       Townsend Harris           688
 26  Packer Collegiate       753     (AIS  )       HS Of Health Prof         699
 27  Townsend Harris         799     (PSAL )       Packer Collegiate         702

Post-Race Comments ... Fayetteville-Manlius won with another incredible performance (four runners in the top seven) ... The 2004 Saratoga team (the best high school girl's team of all-time) had four finishers in the top nine and five in the top ten.

Overall, the team predictions were decent ... FM, Saratoga and East Aurora ran 1st-2nd-3rd as expected ... Queensbury was expected to challenge for a top-three finish, but two of their top runners did not compete.

Emily Lipari (Roslyn) won the race in 17:58.0 which is the 4th fastest girl's time ever at Bowdoin Park ... Improving Courtney Chapman (FM) was 2nd in (18:03.8), 7th-fastest time ever at Bowdoin ... Following were Hannah Davidson (Saratoga, 18:14.4), Mackenzie Carter (FM, 18:36.1), and Shelby Greany (Suffern, 18:44.2).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Three top teams opted-out of Federations (Burnt-Hills, Greenwich and Warwick Valley) ... All three are expected to race the following week at Bowdoin Park in the NTN-NY Regional Qualifier.

Fayetteville-Manlius ... FM is the #1-ranked team in nation for good reason - they have been performing incredibly well with a deep and talented team ... According to the entry list, Kathryn Buchan will not be starting (she was limping noticeably after her race at States).

Saratoga appears to be easily second-best ... Saratoga did not have great team race at States (an improved performance would close the gap with FM).

East Aurora and Queensbury seem closely matched if all runners perform well.

Individual Race ... This looks like a really good race with returning Footlocker Finalists Hannah Davidson (Saratoga) and Shelby Greany (Suffern) being challenged by Emily Lipari (Roslyn), who had the fastest time at States ... Several top runners will not be competing at Feds since they are preparing for NTN or Footlocker [Sam Roecker (Burnt Hills), Caitlin Lane (Greenwich), Mary Kate Champagne (Seton Catholic)].