Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Warwick Valley      (09)       50        Warwick Valley         41
  2   Shenendehowa        (02)       70        Shenendehowa           61
  3   Arlington           (01)       91        Smithtown             116
  4   Smithtown           (11)       96        Ithaca                130
  5   Liverpool           (03)      124        Liverpool             134
  6   Ithaca              (04)      157        Arlington             139
  7   Penfield            (05)      157        Penfield              147
  8   Clarence            (06)      173        Clarence              184
  9   Port Washington     (08)      241        Port Washington       239

		 

Post-Race Comments ... Warwick Valley beat Shenendehowa by 20 points as predicted ... Ithaca raced well to finish 4th and Arlington did not have a good race ... Other than that, the Class AA race ran close to form.

Pat Dupont (Fairport), Giovanni Signoretti (Smithtown) and Julian Sheinbaum (Scarsdale) ran one-two-three as expected.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Computer simulated races are usually helpful in determining team strengths and weaknesses within a specific race ... The importance of "other team runners" (from teams not expected to vie for the win) is occasionally a major factor in the final team scoring, and that could be a factor in the Class AA team outcome, and simulations are helpful in this regard ... Another consideration is that computer simulated races can be "fooled" somewhat when more than one the top team contains a "pack" of closely rated runners ... With respect to speed rating ranges, Warwick Valley has six runners in the range of 176 to 180 (only a 12 second spread) ... Shenedehowa has six runners between 172 and 180 ... Arlington has four runners between 174 and 180, and Smithtown has three runners between 175 and 172 plus a runner that might win the team race ... and other teams have multiple runners in the same "pack" range.

Warwick Valley and Shenendehowa get their scoring advantage from team depth (especially at the #5 and #6 positions) ... Without any intervention on my part, the median computer simulated score was closer to Warwick Valley-40 and Shenendehowa-80 (as opposed to the 50-70 prediction above) ... But experience suggests that "packs" generally spread-out somewhat these races, so I "extended" some individual ranges for a final simulation, and that's what shown above.

Experienced horseplayers know there is a big difference between (1) predicting the outcome of a race and (2) betting on the outcome of a race ... In the words of speed figure guru Andrew Beyer, "Are you willing to bet the rent money??" ... For this Class AA cross country race, I would hold on to the rent money ... Somehow I think it's closer than might be expected ... Top performances by the #5 runner of either Arlington or Smithtown put them right into the mix (and both teams won small percentages of the computer simulations) ... Warwick Valley is the favorite based on speed ratings, but Shenendehowa is not far behind, and if their "pack" improves just slightly, the race gets real close.

Individual Race ... The current Class AA individual rankings have 25 runners with overall speed ratings between 189 and 179 (that's 25 guys within a 30 second time gap), and 53 runners between 180 and 172 (24 second gap) ... not all are at States, but the finish-line chute could be filling up fast ... I anticipate a good race for the top spot between Pat Dupont (Fairport), Giovanni Signoretti (Smithtown) and Julian Sheinbaum (Scarsdale) ... Demetri Goutos (Saratoga) has come-on very well this season and could surprise the top trio ... David Frankel (Syosset) and Kevon Carter (Valley Stream Central) ran well at the Section 8 qualifier.

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Queensbury          (02)       45        Queensbury             34
  2   Pittsford Mendon    (05)       79        Pittsford Mendon       73
  3   Cornwall            (09)       96        Wantagh               101
  4   Wantagh             (08)      105        Cornwall              106
  5   Somers              (01)      113        Somers                129
  6   Hauppauge           (11)      165        Hauppague             147
  7   East Syracuse-Minoa (03)      179        East Syracuse-Minoa   158
  8   Hamburg             (06)      212        Union Endicott        203
  9   Union Endicott      (04)      213        Hamburg               228
  10  Massena             (10)      316        Massena               dnr

		

Post-Race Comments ... The Class"A" race ran close to predicted form team-wise with Queensbury dominating and Pittsford Mendon second ... Individually, Kyle Merber (Half Hollow Hills West) opened the winning margin in the final mile to win handily with Brendan Devine (Monticello) running very well to finish 2nd over Zach Rivers (Victor) 3rd and Matt Flint (Queensbury) 4th. 

Pre-Race Analysis ... Queensbury won the Class A Championship the past two years and are the solid favorite once again ... Queensbury remains deep and talented through all seven runners ... Queensbury is currently the #3 ranked team in the NTN-NY Regional rankings (behind Shenendehowa and Warwick Valley).

Pittsford Mendon gets the call for runner-up, but Cornwall, Wantagh and Somers are not far behind.

Individual Race ... Looks like a great match-up between two of the best runners in State, Zach Rivers (Victor) and Kyle Merber (Half Hollow Hills West) ... Rivers beat Merber by 17 seconds on the Norwood-Norfolk course in September, and both runners seem better now than then ... Joe Whalen (Hamburg) would have been a top contender, but he crossed the finish-line at sectionals with a broken foot (and will not run); and that dropped Hamburg in the predicted team scores from 6th to 8th.

Class A has some other very good and competitive runners ... Evan Tsembelis (Grand Island) has been improving throughout the season ... Brendan Devine (Monticello), Matt Flint (Queensbury), Colin Anderson (Cornwall) and Zack Ball (Kenmore East) have all run well.

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Shoreham-Wading Riv (11)       58        Shoreham-Wading Riv    55
  2   Honeoye Falls-Lima  (05)       71        East Aurora            76
  3   East Aurora         (06)       88        Honeoye Falls-Lima     86
  4   Red Hook            (09)       98        Red Hook              105
  5   Westhill            (03)      132        Pearl River           141
  6   Pearl River         (01)      150        Westhill              152
  7   Valley Stream North (08)      186        Ichabod Crane         171
  8   Plattsburgh         (07)      200        Valley Stream North   188
  9   Windsor             (04)      200        Windsor               195
  10  Ichabod Crane       (02)      225        Plattsburgh           210
  11  Ogdensburg          (10)      328        Ogdenburg             340

		

Post-Race Comments ... Shoreham-Wading River won pretty much as expected ... East Aurora ran well to finish 2nd over Honeoye Falls-Lima ... Ichabod Crane demonstrated that a Section 2 team should not predicted to finish 10th ... Individually, a great stretch-run finish between winner Alex Deir (Honeoye Falls-Lima) and Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Shoreham-Wading River enters the Class B race as the favorite ... Their one big advantage over the other teams is team depth (especially at the #5 through #7 positions) ... Honeoye Falls-Lima always seems to race better at States than the predictions, so this race may be closer than the predicted score above ... East Aurora and Red Hook appear very close for the 3rd spot.

Individual Race ... Chris Stogsdill (Marcellus) is the slight favorite; Chris ran well at sectionals despite the freak knee-injury suffered before the league champion meet ... Within striking distance are Alex Deir (Honeoye Falls-Lima), Mike Hickey (Pearl River), Bobby Andrews (Shoreham-Wading River), Max Straneva (Chenango Valley, who beat Stogsdill at the Marathon Invite), and Andrew Corcoran (Westhill).

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Newark Valley       (04)       53        Newark Valley          37
  2   Tully               (03)       57        Tully                  42
  3   Voorheesville       (02)      119        Voorheesville         119
  4   Wilson              (06)      124        Wilson                141
  5   Irvington           (01)      135        Irvington             156
  6   Rhinebeck           (09)      140        Rhinebeck             164
  7   Norwood-Norfolk     (10)      171        Port Jefferson        189
  8   Port Jefferson      (11)      173        Norwood-Norfolk       194
  9   Bath-Haverling      (05)      185        Oyster Bay            210
  10  Oyster Bay          (08)      225        Bath-Haverling        221
  11  Saranac Lake        (07)      270        Saranac Lake          265

		

Post-Race Comments ... The Class "C" race ran close to form with Newark Valley edging Tully by 5 points ... Individually, Colby Delbene (Pawling) won handily with Jamie Vavra (Newark Valley) holding off Chris Burke (Tully) for 2nd.

Pre-Race Analysis ... This could be a very close race between top-ranked Newark Valley and Tully ... The two teams raced head-to-head at the Marathon Invite with Newark Valley prevailing handily by a score of 60-97 ... But a NY State Class race can be something of a "different animal" since there is a maximum of only 77 team runners and typically, only a few teams are really competitive for the top spot which makes the team scores closer at the top, and that helps Tully in the simulations.

Tully has been getting some improved performances in recent races and that helped close the gap with Newark Valley ... An important factor could well be the performance of Tully's Ohure Sam (Sam is his last name) ... Ohure is another of Tully's "Boys from the Sudan" ... Ohure has his good days and his bad days with respect to racing due, in large part, to injuries suffered in the Sudan ... I first met Ohure last year at early season practice when Scott VanderMolen was holding a big ice bag on Ohure's knee (he took an arrow through the knee as a child in the Sudan, and I can only wonder how much scar tissue is in there); but an old back injury has been bothering Ohure more this season and it is obvious he is running in pain ... his speed ratings vary from 146 to 169 and he might the #2 runner in a race or the #6 runner ... If we see Ohure finishing up close at States, Tully's prospects will take a big step forward.

Last year, Tully won the Class C title and finished 9th in the merged team scoring which automatically qualified them for Federations ... I won't be surprised if the winner of this race does the same and auto-qualifies for Feds ... some teams from the larger classes that look stronger on paper entering States do not run well at States which helps the smaller school winners in the merge.

Individual Race ... Colby Delbene (Pawling) is the favorite to win the individual title (he finished second at States last year) ... Not far behind are Jamie Vavra (Newark Valley), Donald Truesdell (Wilson), Stephen Hine (Dansville), Chris Burke (Tully) and Mackey Lloyd (Voorhesville).

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River        (03)       55        Beaver River           49
  2   Stony Brook         (11)       79        Pavilion               70
  3   Pavilion            (05)       85        Stony Brook           101
  4   Ticonderoga         (07)       89        Barker                111
  5   Barker              (06)      110        Ticonderoga           118
  6   Groton              (04)      125        Groton                149
  7   Schenectady Chr     (02)      142        Schenectady Chr       181
  8   Tupper Lake         (10)      220        Keio Academy          203
  9   Keio                (01)      250        Tupper Lake           203
  10  John A. Coleman     (09)      260        John A Coleman        246
		

Post-Race Comments ... Beaver River won the Class "D" race as expected ... Pavilion finished 2nd with Stony Brook 3rd ... Individually, Lee Berube (Ticonderoga) opened a quick, early, sizeable lead and won by 45 seconds with part of race looking like a tempo run.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Beaver River is the favorite based, in large part, on team depth compared to the other teams in the race.

Individual Race ... Lee Berube (Ticonderoga) is the overwhelming favorite to win ... A whole group of runners appear competitive for the runner-up spot that include Mike Champagne (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh), Patrick Stewart (Lake Placid), Frank Johnson (Letchworth), Jason Phillips (Moravia), Dan Young (Seton Catholic-Binghamton), Mitch Miller (Morrisville-Eaton) and Chris Martin (Onondaga).

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Fayetteville-Manlius (03)      38        Fayetteville-Manlius   23
  2   Saratoga             (02)      54        Saratoga               71
  3   Warwick              (09)      92        Warwick                90
  4   Ward Melville        (11)     117        Ward Melville         121
  5   Arlington            (01)     124        Arlington             132
  6   Hilton               (05)     139        Hilton                138
  7   Corning              (04)     175        Corning               163
  8   East Meadow          (08)     198        East Meadow           190
  9   West Seneca West     (06)     205        West Seneca West      222
		

Post-Race Comments ... Fayetteville-Manlius was just plain awesome ... Overall, the predictions were very close to form ... Individually, Hannah Davidson (Saratoga) won with Shelby Greany (Suffern) 2nd as expected ... Then came a parade of four FM runners (Courtney Chapman, Mackenzie Carter, Hannah Luber and Molly Malone.

Pre-Race Analysis ... Only nine teams in the race, but exceptional quality ... Fayetteville-Manlius is the defending national NTN Champion and #1 ranked team in the US ... Saratoga is the #4 ranked team in the US and Warwick Valley is the #25 ranked team in the US ... Ward Melville and Arlington have been running very well, and Hilton finished second at NTN last year.

Fayetteville-Manlius may have the second-best team in NY history with respect to team depth (only the 2004 Saratoga team with four Footlocker Finalists was deeper) ... and maybe we haven't seen the best of this FM team since last year's top runners are coming off injuries (Kathryn Buchan, ankle injury in first invitational; Mackenzie Carter, plantar fasciitis) ... The addition of first-year runner Hannah Luber and Jocelyn Richards give FM an incredibly strong team (taking the top five places at sectionals is quite a feat).

Saratoga is a very good team with excellent strength up front (Hannah Davidson and Cassie Goutos) and good team depth ... Their only loss of the season came at Manhattan (to FM).

Individual Race ... Hannah Davidson (Saratoga) and Shelby Greany (Suffern) are both returning Footlocker Finalists and both are running well again this season ... Warwick Valley's top duo of Tori Pennings and Lillian Greibesland have been running well as have Cassie Goutos (Saratoga) and Kate Rosettie (Corning).

It will be interesting to see where the Fayetteville-Manlius girls insert themselves against this excellent field of competitors on a true 5K course (the 4K results from Manhattan may not be a good indication) ... Hannah Luber was very impressive at sectionals and seemed to run well-within herself setting the pace for most of the race ... Kathryn Buchan ran what appeared (to me) to be a very good training race; she finished strongly along-side team mate Courtney Chapman ... Mackenzie Carter definitely ran better than the earlier race at Jamesville Beach when her foot was obviously bothering her.

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Burnt Hills          (02)      29        Burnt Hills            31
  2   Pittsford Mendon     (05)      86        Pittsford Mendon       83
  3   Ursuline             (01)      99        Ursuline               87
  4   Cornwall             (09)     100        Cornwall              106
  5   Mepham               (08)     140        Vestal                147
  6   Vestal               (04)     142        Mepham                149
  7   Kings Park           (11)     179        Whitesboro            171
  8   Starpoint            (06)     188        Starpoint             188
  9   Whitesboro           (03)     188        Kings Park            210
		

Post-Race Comments ... The Class "A" race ran close to form with Burnt Hills winning easily ...And Burnt Hills was missing two top runners, Meagan Gregory (as noted in the prediction) and Molly Pezzulo (Burnt Hills) who did not race due to a calf injury (that's all I heard ... I don't know her status for future races) ... Section 3 Whitesboro finished 7th (better than the 9th prediction).

Individually, one of the best finishes of the day ... Emily Lipari (Roslyn) led the race early, but Sam Roecker (Burnt Hills) took the lead with Lipari following much of the race ... leaving the woods for the final time, Roecker had maybe a 20 meter lead and maintained the lead entering the final stretch-run ... Lipari closed strongly in the final uphill section of the stretch to win.

Pre-Race Analysis ... This is the last race of the day (1:40pm start-time) ... Burnt Hills is the #7 ranked team in the nation (The Harrier Magazine) and reigning Class A Champion ... Burnt Hills is the overwhelming favorite ... Unfortunately, Burnt Hills will not have Meagan Gregory in the line-up (she has been out for a while due to "mono" ... according to the Schenectady Daily Gazette, Gregory has started running again and MAY be available at the end of the season).

Pittsford Mendon is predicted to finish second ... After all, they ran Fayetteville-Manlius head-to-head at the Chittenango Invitational and Pittsford Mendon won the race (so what if FM was disqualified - details, details) ... Both Ursuline and Cornwall are close, and either could grab the runner-up spot with top performances.

Individual Race ... This Class A race features some very good individual runners ... Sam Roecker (Burnt Hills) and Molly Pezzulo (Burnt Hills) have been popping big ratings all season ... Jillian King (Scotia-Glenville), Jaclyn Marshall (Kings Park) and first-year runner Emma Miller-Bedell (Tappan Zee) are all capable of delivering top performances ... But Emily Lipari (Roslyn) could be the runner to beat - her sectional win at Bethpage State Park (17:43.5) tied the highest speed rating for any NY girl this season (153) ... according to Newsday, after finishing, "she had enough time to catch her breath, speak to reporters, and hug her family and friends before any other runner even crossed the line after her." ... Last spring, Emily Lipari surprised many observers by winning the State Meet 3000 meter race at Dietz Stadium (9:45.64) ... she is a real contender to qualify for Footlocker Finals, BUT the Class A race offers-up some real good competition ... This is one race I'm interested in watching.

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   East Aurora          (06)      43        East Aurora            36
  2   Honeoye Falls-Lima   (05)      79        Honeoye Falls-Lima     75
  3   Pearl River          (01)      95        Pearl River           107
  4   Broadalbin-Perth     (02)     116        Shoreham-Wading Riv   110
  5   North Shore          (08)     137        Broadalbin-Perth      131
  6   Shoreham Wading Riv  (11)     138        North Shore           140
  7   Johnson City         (04)     164        Johnson City          155
  8   Westhill             (03)     180        Westhill              188
  9   Onteora              (09)     225        Onteora               232
  10  Franklin (Malone)    (10)     260        Franklin (Malone)     271
  11  Peru                 (07)     277        Peru                  298
		

Post-Race Comments ... East Aurora won handily as expected with Honeoye Falls-Lima 2nd and Pearl River 3rd ... Individually, Catherine Lusardi (East Aurora) won handily with Brianna Welch (North Shore) barely edging Jenna Hulton (East Aurora) for 2nd.

Pre-Race Analysis ... East Aurora is the two-time defending Class B champion ... Prior to that, Honeoye Falls-Lima had a string of State titles that stretched back to 1998 ... East Aurora is currently the #6 ranked team in NY State (all-classes according to the NTN regional rankings), and they have been running very well in recent races ... the only teams that beat East Aurora this season are two of the best teams in the nation (Fayetteville-Manlius and Burnt Hills at the McQuaid Invitational) ... East Aurora enters the Class B race as an odds-on favorite.

Nov 8 Update ... I was just informed that Paige Mullins (Johnson City, 2nd at last year's States) is out for the rest of the season due to a stress fracture ... The scores above have been modified to include this change.

With respect to team scoring, Johnson City and Honeoye Falls-Lima seem very evenly matched in this particular race (before the scratch of Paige Mullins) ... Johnson City has a distinct advantage at the top-end and might possibly have two runners finish ahead of Honeoye's first finisher, but Honeoye could pack-in all five of their scorers in time to finish second ... Pearl River has been improving throughout the season, and legendary Coach Dan Doherty might have his team primed to better the predicted score (Pearl River has won 29 consecutive sectional titles).

Individual Race ... Catherine Lusardi (East Aurora) enters the race as a slight favorite over Section 6 rival Jaime Wallace (Alden) and team-mate Jenna Hulton (East Aurora) ... Brianna Welch (North Shore) is the runner who could spring an upset; Welch is one of the top 800m (and 1500m) runners in the State and has popped some very good XC performances; if she's close entering the stretch-run, look-out.

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Greenwich            (02)      25        Greenwich              20
  2   Bronxville           (01)      49        Bronxville             56
  3   Tully                (03)     117        Tully                 101
  4   Tri-Valley           (09)     119        Newark Valley         119
  5   Newark Valley        (04)     120        Tri Valley            149
  6   Norwood-Norfolk      (10)     151        Akron                 166
  7   Akron                (06)     170        Norwood-Norfolk       188
  8   Saranac Lake         (07)     182        Saranac Lake          196
  9   Dansville            (05)     212        Dansville             212
  10  Hampton Bays         (11)     317        Hampton Bays          302
  11  East Rockaway        (08)     317        East Rockaway         318
		

Post-Race Comments ... The Class "C" race also ran pretty close to the expectations with Greenwich winning handily, Bronxville 2nd and Tully 3rd ... Individually, Caitlin Lane (Greenwich) won by holding off the season-best performance of Erin Cawley (Newark Valley) ... Caitlin Lane (and sister Brittney Lane) almost missed the meet as their grandfather passed away earlier in the week and they were attending the downstate funeral (Joe Pipia had never missed any of Caitlin's races).

Pre-Race Analysis ... Greenwich and Bronxville are two really good Class C teams ... Greenwich is currently the #17 ranked team in the nation (The Harrier Magazine) making me wish Tully had eleven fewer student so we could be Class D and have a shot at a State title... Greenwich has been popping some mighty impressive ratings in recent races and should be considered an odds-on favorite ... Bronxville has been improving and will likely finish well in the merged results and receive a Federation bid.

Tully, Tri-Valley and Newark Valley seem very evenly matched ... Tully and Tri-Valley raced head-to-head at the Disney Invitational with Tully winning ... Tully finished a few points ahead of Newark Valley at the Marathon Invitational ... Tri-Valley and Newark Valley have been running well recently races ... Tully will not have the services of Becky Bloom who sprained an ankle at the ESM Invite (she was the #3 or #4 runner through much of the season); fortunately, Tully's freshman trio (Caroline Edinger, Erica Cole and Taillear Denick) responded well at sectionals allowing Tully to make States ... The #4 and #5 runners will likely determine which team takes 3rd-place to the top two teams.

Individual Race ... Caitlin Lane (Greenwich) has been a Footlocker Finalist and is the odds-on favorite to win for the second straight year ... Greenwich has several other highly ranked Class C runners (Roxanne Henningson, Cady Kuzmich and Emily Fung)... It will be interesting to see how well they run (away from Saratoga Park) against Erin Cawley (Newark Valley), Tori Flannery (Bronxville) and Allsion Lasnicki (Canastota).

 

                                 Predict                          Actual
      School               Sect   Score        School              Score
      ===============      ====   =====        ==================  =====
  1   Beaver River         (03)      68        Geneseo                70
  2   Duanesburg           (02)      72        Duanesburg             75
  3   Geneseo              (05)      75        Beaver River           77
  4   Maple Grove          (06)      99        Maple Grove           103
  5   Seton Catholic       (07)     102        John A. Coleman       131
  6   John A. Coleman      (09)     125        Seton Catholic        139
  7   Delhi                (04)     158        Delhi                 152
  8   Tupper Lake          (10)     201        Tupper Lake           161
  9   Pierson              (11)     228        Pierson               233
		

Post-Race Comments ... The Class "D" race was just as close as expected (only 7 points separated the top three teams in the prediction and actual score) ... Geneseo got good performances from their top runners and #5 runner to win ... Individually, Mary Kate Champagne (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) won easily, with Genna Hartung (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) 2nd and Amanda Mooreland (Bloomfield) 3rd.

Pre-Race Analysis ... This could be one of the closest races of the day ... Each of the top three teams (Beaver River, Duanesburg and Geneseo) has strengths and weaknesses evident from the computer simulations ... Beaver River won a slightly higher percentage of the simulations because they appear slightly stronger at the #5 position which is very important in this particular race ... Geneseo has the strength at the top-end, and good performances at the #4 and #5 positions could mean victory ... Duanesburg has a good team "pack" ... Overall - Very Close.

Individual Race ... Mary Kate Champagne (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) is one of best runners in the State and odds-on favorite to repeat as Class D champion ... Amanda Mooreland (Bloomfield) and Genna Hartung (Seton Catholic-Plattsburgh) could have a good battle to determine the runner-up spot.