Pre-season team rankings have several problems ... first, they are usually based on last year's results ... more recent track results may or may not have relevance for the upcoming XC season ... some runners improve (some improve a lot) ... a few runners transfer or quit ... new runners can join a team and make a big difference ... So any pre-season rankings must be viewed in that context.

Recently, I was asked to speed rate various Northeast XC races from last year (such as State Meets in PA, CT, MA, RI, ME and other other races) ... most of those data are posted on a separate web-page ... One possible use of the ratings was to rank teams in the NTN (Nike Team National) Northeast Region.

Ranking teams based on one race from last year is problematic.  For example, a team's State Meet may have been their best race of the year by far, and not indicative of their normal ability ... but this raises a secondary question about all rankings (pre-season, in-season, post-season), "What exactly are you ranking??":
 (1) are you ranking overall accomplishment?
 (2) are you ranking what was accomplished when they were at their very best?
 (3) are you ranking recent accomplishments only?
 (4) are you ranking what you think they can do?? (effectively predicting)
This pre-season list is a combination of all four because I used all available speed ratings ... And since I wanted to run computer simulations, I needed to get multiple speed ratings for most individual runners on all teams.

What good are pre-season rankings? ... Well, they seem to be a lively topic of discussion during the summer ... they are beneficial in gathering background information.  But once the season starts, they have no purpose ... I rank individual XC runners based strictly on performance during the current season (just like a track & field leaderboard).  A few weeks into the season, I believe teams should be ranked on current performance with last year's accomplishments fading away (both XC and track).

An XC coach asked me the following question recently, "How would I rank a team that holds one or two runners out at a number of meets??" ... I would rank the team based on the performance of any five runners that have competed in the current season (and are still running) ... the exception might be a major championship meet.

The following pre-season list pertains to potential contenders in the NTN Northeast Region ... additional information is presented below the list ... The list comes from a computer simulation.  As a point-of-reference, I only run computer simulations near the end an XC season ... they were designed for predicting results of the Section 3 Championship Meet and NY State Class Meet (and later, the Federation Meet) ... I have never used computer simulations to predict NTN (more on that in the discussion about NTN predictions and Speed Ratings).

 

 Pre-Season NTN Northeast Potential Contenders Boys-2006

                              Score   State   Section-Class
                              -----   -----   -------------
  1    Collegiate              185    (NY)    (AIS  )
  2    Brockton MA             195    (MA)
  2    Coatesville PA          195    (PA)
  4    Shenendehowa            205    (NY)    (02-AA)
  5    FM                      210    (NY)    (03-AA)
  5    Liverpool               210    (NY)    (03-AA)
  7    CBA-NJ                  250    (NJ)
  8    Don Bosco NJ            255    (NJ)
  9    Glastonbury CT          260    (CT)
  10   Warwick                 270    (NY)    (09-AA)
  11   Chaminade               275    (NY)    (CHSAA)
  11   Brookline MA            275    (MA)
  13   St. Anthony's           290    (NY)    (CHSAA)
  13   Smithtown               290    (NY)    (11-AA)
  15   Burnt Hills             315    (NY)    (02-A )
  16   Pope John Xxiii NJ      320    (NJ)
  17   Newtown CT              325    (CT)
  18   Danbury CT              340    (CT)
  18   Byram Hills             340    (NY)    (01-B )
  20   Queensbury              350    (NY)    (02-A )
  21   Niskayuna               355    (NY)    (02-AA)
  22   Shaker                  360    (NY)    (02-AA)

Where did the scores come from? ... The scores are a composite of computer race simulations (100,000+ simulated races) using the 2005 speed ratings from the table below with corresponding statistical margins of error ... a few (and only a few) speed rating ranges were altered based on track results ... I could have done more with track results but decided it wasn't worth the time for what I was trying to accomplish ... I limited the simulation to 22 teams - I included nine non-NY teams (seemed to be top contenders from the info available for XC) and 13 NY teams (to see where they might stack up to the better non-NY teams).

The simulations were prone to some rather "wild swings" in results, due to the larger than normal ranges and error margins for the out-of-NYState speed ratings ... Therefore, I have little faith in the exact order of the list above ... But it gives an overall generalization.

Collegiate comes out on top, but that was dependent on changing the range for Peter Vizcarrondo (who was not 100% during XC and then ran a 9:28 3200m at the NY State Championships) ... Collegiate has their entire team back from 20005 ... They finished 6th at NY Federations, but with a healthier Vizcarrondo (who finished 105th in the team scoring), they may have finished as high as third behind FM and Saratoga.

Brockton MA did very well, mostly due to an excellent race at the Massachusetts All-State Meet ... In general, I can not speed rate State Meets (outside of NY) nearly as accurately as NY races because I do not follow the racing in most States and do not collect race data, so it limits the evaluation methods ... Brockton did race at both the Manhattan Invite and Brown Invite (against relevant NY and NJ teams) so I have good speed ratings for those races (unfortunately, the muddy-wet conditions at the 2005 Brown Invite leave those ratings open to speculation) ... But it seemed clear from other race results that Brockton had a super MA State Meet, and that is reflected in their high pre-season position ... and it is also possible I over-rated the MA All-state Meet (but Brockton would still be very good).

Coatesville PA looks like a very solid team ... but I have no ratings for them against any top teams outside of PA.

Shenendehowa moves into the pre-season list due to the transfer of two new runners (Steve Murdock from Saratoga and Mike Danaher from CBA-Albany).

Fayetteville-Manlius and Liverpool appear fairly even up ... and I did modify the range for Geoff King.

CBA-New Jersey was a surprise ... they have three runners from last year's NTN race (Chris Lombardi ran very well at NTN and finished 24th) ... I had to go looking for other CBA-NJ runners to include ... I began looking at JV results and discovered that CBA-NJ has a very strong program ... I wasn't certain of some runner's grades, so I added some representative runners to the CBA roster.

Glastonbury CT looks quite good ... I modified the range for one runner (James Llamas) because he ran a good 3200m (9:47), and he didn't run in most of Glastonbury's XC races ... Glastonbury CT may be a bit better than listed above.

This brief discussion is to answer various e-mail inquiries and comments concerning my NTN predictions (and it has some relevance to the NTN rankings above).  The DyeStat Message Board had a thread concerning the NTN Rankings and their accuracy ... since some posters were using speed ratings as a ranking tool, the accuracy of speed ratings was questioned (and the accuracy of my NTN predictions was cited) ... It is apparent that the "accuracy" of my NTN predictions is misunderstood.

My NTN predictions for 2005 and NTN predictions for 2004 are available on separate web-pages ... Both web-pages make it clear that most speed ratings used for the NTN predictions are "ball-park" estimates and are not intended to be precise ... I spent a limited amount of time making the NTN predictions.  When the final teams were invited to NTN 2005, the only teams I had rated were the NY and NJ teams (because I had been following them during the season) ... I had some ratings for York, Royal Simi and Corona del Mar (that's it) ... I had to rate everybody else, and I did it as quickly as possible.

The method I use to speed rate most State Meets (outside of NY) is outlined in the article "Comparing XC Speed from Various State Championship Meets to Predict Results at Nike Team Nationals" ... That method of making a speed rating is only one of three methods I use to make speed ratings, and it is not the most accurate ... The three methods of determining race corrections for comparative speed ratings are summarized in the article "Early Season Speed Ratings and a Brief Overview of Speed Ratings":

(1) Course conversion charts ... I have very limited course conversion charts for XC courses outside of the NY and NJ areas, and I did not spend time developing new charts or tables (I did look at a few results from the 2004 NTN predictions).

(2) Reference Runners ... this depends on an appropriate database of runner performances from that State, and since I do not follow XC except where NY runners compete, I have no database of runner performances from most States ... therefore, the reference runner method can not be used unless I develop a new database (and I don't have the time or desire for most States).

(3) Statistical Sampling of Groups ... this is the method I use for most teams at NTN ... It can work decently IF I make a reasonable, educated guess (based on statistical sampling), but it is prone to over-rating or under-rating with a poor initial guess.

In 2004, the NTN predictions were based almost entirely on State Meet speed ratings ... In 2005, I expanded that somewhat by looking at other recent races for each team, but I speed rated only a few (the teams with a chance to win) ... for the most part (to save time), I simply looked at team spread (time differences among team runners), and made approximate adjustments to the State speed ratings when it seemed appropriate (such as a runner being extra good or bad for some reason).

For the NY and NJ runners (where I had sequential lists of speed ratings), I simply looked at the lists and wrote down what I thought that runner might do at NTN ... I received a number of e-mails and comments wondering why I picked a certain rating for Andrew McCann (and several other FM runners) - I guessed!

As noted above, I developed computer simulations to predict scores at the Section 3 Championship Meet and the NY State Class Meet ... But computer simulations are only meaningful when the majority of scoring runners have a sequences of three or more individual speed ratings (I prefer five or more ... more is better ... more data, better results) ... For my NTN predictions, the only teams with sufficient sequences were the NY and NJ teams ... Therefore, the NTN predictions could NOT use computer simulations ... many of the speed ratings were "ball-parked" ... When viewed in context, I am surprised at how well the NTN predictions came out (both years).

Personally, I don't think it's worth spending a lot more time making NTN predictions ... occasionally, some relevant results will be missed (and I did miss a relevant York, IL result from the 2004 season ... that's why I spent a bit more time in 2005 looking at teams that might win).  NTN is a unique event ... even if I had a boat-load of 100% absolutely, positively accurate speed ratings for all teams, more than just speed comes into play at NTN ... Factors such as travel, time change, racing under different running conditions (cold, mud), the whole NTN experience, etc. can negate speed advantages ... for example, speed figures would always have the Corona del Mar girls and Royal boys rated higher than their 2005 finish at NTN.

BOTTOM LINE ... Speed Rating is a Methodology (a series of methods) ... It is most accurate when all internal methods are used to evaluate a specific race ... My NTN Predictions are an abnormal application of the methodology ... Therefore, comparing the accuracy of the NTN Predictions to the accuracy of the NY State Class Meet is comparing apples to oranges ... The accuracy of the NTN Predictions is NOT indicative of the accuracy of the methodology as a whole ... Period.

Runner                Grade          Team                  2005 Sequential Speed Ratings
-------------------   -----          -------------------   -------------------------------------------
Kevin Gill             JR            Brockton MA           176 193 185 192 185
Carlos Montrond        SO            Brockton MA           187 181 173 177
Geovani Timberlake     JR            Brockton MA           183 180 161 164
James Dubeau           SO            Brockton MA           173 163 161 167
Mike Smith             SO            Brockton MA           163 167 150 154
Kyle Rothfuss          JR            Brockton MA           159 156 152

Robert Gibson          SO            Brookline MA          160 184 177 166
Michael Burnstein      SO            Brookline MA          176 175 164
Elliot Lehane          SO            Brookline MA          171 172 130
Jerzy Eisenberg-Guyo   JR            Brookline MA          168 168 153
David Wilson           FR            Brookline MA          157

Drew Houghtalen        11    02-A    Burnt Hills           170 179 180 182 175 168 172
Ryan Pezzulo           11    02-A    Burnt Hills           162 172 171 171 163 161 160 158
Cody Buell             11    02-A    Burnt Hills           159 159 172 165 166 160 154 159
Zach Goodrich          11    02-A    Burnt Hills           153 165 165 161 156 155
Matt Burton            11    02-A    Burnt Hills           142 155 156 163 169 156 165 162
Dan Gray               11    02-A    Burnt Hills           152 151 146
Matt Rusilas           9     02-A    Burnt Hills           146 148

Max Kasak              11    01-B    Byram Hills           181 178 172 172 179 176 180 177 181 175 176
Phil Cawkwell          11    01-B    Byram Hills           175 177 170 167 164 156 165 162 169 162 161
Gerald McDonald        11    01-B    Byram Hills           154 166 166 162 168 160 167 154 157
Mike Sass              11    01-B    Byram Hills           148 149 144 143 143 147 140
Andrew Zahornacky      11    01-B    Byram Hills           139 147
Nima Naseri            11    01-B    Byram Hills           131 144 135 127 139 131

Chris Lombardi         11            CBA-NJ                185 181 182 173 176
Anthony Pellegrino     11            CBA-NJ                167 174 177 170 171
Brandon Pierson        10            CBA-NJ                159 168 172 171 174
Taylor Zorski          11            CBA-NJ                163
Another JV             --            CBA-NJ                160 160
Another JV             --            CBA-NJ                159 159

Ryan McDermott         11    CHS     Chaminade             175 170 178 179 180 178
Charles Donnelly       10    CHS     Chaminade             164 165 173 162 161 168 168
Chris Tonn             10    CHS     Chaminade             166 170 164
Stephen Childs         11    CHS     Chaminade             167 168 168 164 161 166
Stephen Donnelly       10    CHS     Chaminade             152 161 149 159 153 163 162
Kevin McDonald         11    CHS     Chaminade             156 157
Michael Schieck        10    CHS     Chaminade             155 153

Kyle Dawson            Jr            Coatesville PA        191 186 180 182
Sean Ward              Jr            Coatesville PA        178 174 162 176
Owen Dawson            Jr            Coatesville PA        177 171 166 166
Jason Leonard          Jr            Coatesville PA        164 177 160 172
Tom Pannulla           Jr            Coatesville PA        159 168 166 169
Chad Gordon            Jr            Coatesville PA        161 158 144 150
Chris Rosato           Fr            Coatesville PA        134 141

Chris Williams         11    AIS     Collegiate            183 181 184 180 185 187 180 172
Dwayne Alexis          11    AIS     Collegiate            177 162 174 179 176 176 172
Itse Begho             11    AIS     Collegiate            176 175 164 168 178 174 163
Dylan Trotzuk          10    AIS     Collegiate            167 173 173 177 177 170
Peter Vizcarrondo      11    AIS     Collegiate            158 155 170 157 153 166 156
Joseph Myrie           10    AIS     Collegiate            150 142
Jonathan Yip           10    AIS     Collegiate            125 134

Willie Ahern           10            Danbury CT            167 172 178 177 176
Matt Terry             10            Danbury CT            165 177 173 177
Brady Becker           11            Danbury CT            148 155 162 164
Parker Bourdreau       10            Danbury CT            158 157 162
Corey Alvarez          11            Danbury CT            152 151 153

Conor Sullivan         JR            Don Bosco NJ          180 178 179 175
Colin McCullough       JR            Don Bosco NJ          176 179 166 170
Robert Molke           FR            Don Bosco NJ          173 172 158 172
Jason Baker            JR            Don Bosco NJ          162 163 167 161
Anthony Belgiovine     SO            Don Bosco NJ          160 159 151 153
Daniel O'Neill         JR            Don Bosco NJ          158 156 151 149
David Brosnan          JR            Don Bosco NJ          143 132 151

Tommy Gruenewald       11    03-AA   FM                    194 192 190 189 194 188 183 185
Luke Fitzgibbons       11    03-AA   FM                    171 176 180 182 178 181 181 178
Geoff King             11    03-AA   FM                    173 168 170 158 165
Ben Kimple             10    03-AA   FM                    157 161 164 176 165 168
Andrew Sargrad         10    03-AA   FM                    145 151 158 142
Eric Snavely           10    03-AA   FM                    150 154 155 142

Donald Cabral          11            Glastonbury CT        187 180 189 184 184
Robert Dugger          10            Glastonbury CT        179 178 185 182 181
James Llamas           10            Glastonbury CT        150***
Cody Otto              9             Glastonbury CT        158 159 155 164
Chris Klobedanz        11            Glastonbury CT        153 158 161 168

Colin Heenan           11    03-AA   Liverpool             192 193 186 182 188 182 182 184
Nick Scalione          11    03-AA   Liverpool             175 167 175 177 182 179 163 174
Ethan Hickey           10    03-AA   Liverpool             168 164 169 165 159 156 144
Bryan Picciotto        10    03-AA   Liverpool             157 157 163 170 165 163 166 162
Mike Compson           11    03-AA   Liverpool             156 147 155 157 166 167 152 156 155
Justin Lambert         11    03-AA   Liverpool             139 152 160 157 149 155

Eric MacKnight         11            Newtown CT            163 161 176 175
Zach Schwartz          11            Newtown CT            156 176 171
Scott Nichols          11            Newtown CT            155 170 168
Ryan Morrissey         11            Newtown CT            145 163 161
JV Runner              --            Newtown CT            150

Kyle O'Connor          11    02-AA   Niskayuna             170 176 171 175 165 167
Tim Ryan               11    02-AA   Niskayuna             160 167 163 163 162 163 155 150 155
Nick Cioffi            11    02-AA   Niskayuna             163 164 164 164 165 161 149 153
Mike Ryan              11    02-AA   Niskayuna             156 164 162 161 157 157 152 146 151
Zak Smetana            11    02-AA   Niskayuna             139 167 158 158 162 159 152

Jeremy Scheid          JR            Pope John Xxiii NJ    176 171
Thomas Roy             JR            Pope John Xxiii NJ    165 173
Clay Smith             JR            Pope John Xxiii NJ    162 170
Jon Juleus             SO            Pope John Xxiii NJ    159 166
Nick Bease             SO            Pope John Xxiii NJ    148 156
Tim Burns              JR            Pope John Xxiii NJ    148

Matt Flint             10    02-A    Queensbury            179 178 179 181 175 178 175 179 175 176
Kevin Mulcahy          11    02-A    Queensbury            172 165 175 174 177 172 171 174 167 172
Joel Loke              11    02-A    Queensbury            159 160 166 162 155 161
Sean Gallagher         11    02-A    Queensbury            157 163 153 148 157 154
Sean Barber            10    02-A    Queensbury            148 154 154

Matt Bogdan            11    02-AA   Shaker                165 178 172 169 168 177 181 173 163 173
Nick Webster           11    02-AA   Shaker                161 163 164 168 163 171 167 160 169 166
RJ Sniffen             10    02-AA   Shaker                159 162 161 158 162 160 157 158
Brian Benson           11    02-AA   Shaker                155 162 159 163 159 160 161 150 145 159
Chris Manico           10    02-AA   Shaker                137 158 160 164 158 157 159 154 152 156
Matt Dodge             11    02-AA   Shaker                152 153 153 146 146 150

Steve Murdock          11    02-AA   Shenendehowa          188 195 194 199 200 192 186 192 188
Zack Predmore          11    02-AA   Shenendehowa          177 178 182 175 175 168 165
Adam Quinn             11    02-AA   Shenendehowa          168 171 177 172 171 170 162
Mike Danaher           9     02-AA   Shenendehowa          166 167 166 170 166 161 172 166
Tom Soeller            11    02-AA   Shenendehowa          158 161
Kyle Dunn              11    02-AA   Shenendehowa          153 159 158 154 148
Mark VonSchenk         10    02-AA   Shenendehowa          151

Brendan Martin         11    11-AA   Smithtown             183 177 178 185 182 180 179 181 179 183 178
Dan Frost              11    11-AA   Smithtown             172 174 176 177 178 170 168 166 166 155 153
Giovanni Signoretti    10    11-AA   Smithtown             174 171 175 172 169 169 162 174 167 170 169
Nick Roertgen          10    11-AA   Smithtown             155 160 161 164 144 162 145 149 150
August Oetting         10    11-AA   Smithtown             147 154 157 156 158 158 154 150
Brendan Ward           10    11-AA   Smithtown             155 145 153 152 158 156 148 158 154
Joe Santosus           11    11-AA   Smithtown             139 157 151 149

Stephen Russ           11    CHS     St. Anthonys          169 175 174 171 167 153
Thomas Shouler         11    CHS     St. Anthonys          168 173 166 166 171 169
Tim Keegan             11    CHS     St. Anthonys          159 168 166 161 165 165 162
Nicholas Jones         11    CHS     St. Anthonys          164 166 168 155 156 162 164 161
Kevin Gwinn            11    CHS     St. Anthonys          151 168 156 161 168 166
Sean Barrett           11    CHS     St. Anthonys          160
Timothy Flynn          11    CHS     St. Anthonys          151

Terrence Prial         11    09-AA   Warwick               168 180 181 173 182 182 183 171 181
Zack Price             11    09-AA   Warwick               169 175 171 170 169 161 168 163
Brad Ackerman          10    09-AA   Warwick               163 160 172 169 169 155 165 165
Greg Miniger           10    09-AA   Warwick               162 166 164 163 157 160
Matt Laroe             10    09-AA   Warwick               164 164 143 161 138 158
Tim Kolesar            11    09-AA   Warwick               158 161
Dan Prial              10    09-AA   Warwick               158 159 158