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 Federation Championship Meet 2004 - Predictions [and ACTUAL Scores]


Please remember: the predicted scores below only indicate a possible outcome based upon individual runner speed ratings ... they are only one indication of team strength. I used the top seven runners from each team as best as I was aware of ... one major problem with projections is knowing who will or will not be running on some teams (it can make a big difference) ... Predicted Scores were posted on November 15-16, 2004 ... (Update Nov 17 - St. Joe-Buffalo added, a few scores modified) ... Actual scores will be posted side-by-side after the meet  ...  ACTUAL Scores Added November 21, 2004


[Girls Prediction]


 BOYS Federation Championships 2004 ... ACTUAL Scores Added November 21, 2004

                                   Predict                         Actual
      School              Sect      Score       School              Score
      ===============     =====     =====       ==================  =====
 1    FM                  03-AA       59        FM                     34
 2    Lockport            06-AA       91        Lockport              152
 3    Saratoga            02-AA      145        Burnt Hills           186
 4    Chaminade           CHSAA      209        Saratoga              208
 5    Burnt Hills         02-A       236        Chaminade             223
 6    Shenendehowa        02-AA      247        Shenendehowa          235
 7    Monsignor Farrell   CHSAA      254        Syosset               278
 8    Warwick Valley      09-AA      261        Warwick Valley        310
 9    Syosset             08-AA      262        Bethlehem             311
 10   Bethlehem           02-AA      281        Sauquoit Valley       313
 11   Niskayuna           02-AA      289        Rush-Henrietta        315
 12   Somers              01-B       312        North Rockland        335
 13   Rush-Henrietta      05-AA      348        Somers                336
 14   North Rockland      01-AA      349        Monsignor Farrell     346
 15   Queensbury          02-A       352        Frontier              351
 16   Frontier            06-AA      362        Niskayuna             361
 17   Ithaca              04-AA      405        Ithaca                370
 18   Sauquoit Valley     03-C       440        Queensbury            391
 19   St. Anthonys        CHSAA      458        St. Anthony's         412
 20   Fordham Prep        CHSAA      461        Fordham Prep          453
 21   Kellenberg          CHSAA      462        Brooklyn Tech         464
 22   Collegiate          AIS        497        Collegiate            467
 23   Brooklyn Tech       PSAL       586        Kellenberg            529
 24   Francis Lewis       PSAL       665        Stuyvesant            572
 25   Stuyvesant          PSAL       666        St. Joe's-Buffalo     671
 26   St. Joe-Buffalo     CHSAA      692        Francis Lewis         687
 27   Curtis              PSAL       765        Curtis                705
POST RACE Comments: ... Fayetteville-Manlius exceeded all expectations and predictions - This was a benchmark performance ... I did not think FM could exceed the performance of the 2003 Shenendehowa team at Federations, but they did - FM's team average time of 16:15.2 (beating Shen's 16:26.3) is incredible ... Lockport did not have their best race (but FM was too good anyway) ... Burnt Hills ran  well during the season and exceptionally well in this race (they were 4th in the State Meet merge the previous week) ... Sauquoit Valley exceeded expectations and predictions - some teams are capable of "getting-up" for Feds and running well (Sauquoit has done it in the past) - some observers thought Sauquoit "snunk-into" Feds with a 10th-place finish in the State merge (maybe Every NYPHSAA State Championship Team should get an automatic bid to Federations) ... Individual Race - a whole bunch of outstanding performances ... Ryan Sheridan made it look easy in running the second fastest time ever at Bowdoin Park ... There were 13 guys at 190 or above in the speed ratings ... many PRs - I attribute this to competition (runners willing to compete when the bar gets raised) ... This was a great Federation Meet to have watched in person (both boys and girls) - It doesn't get any better than this.

Pre-Race Analysis ... As expected, Fayetteville-Manlius comes out on top in the vast majority of simulations - This assumes none of the top five FM runners run significantly slower than during the overall season ... Lockport is not that far behind (32 point spread) - exceptional performances by their #3, #4 and #5 runners make this a close race - and should one of the FM top five falter, Lockport could win ... But FM is the solid favorite overall.

Last year, Shenendehowa won Federations with a total of 43 points (and a winning spread of 150 points) ... With exceptional performances, FM is capable of equaling the 43 point total (but the 150 point spread looks impossible because Lockport and Saratoga are too good) ... Shenendehowa had a team average time of 16:26.32 (under very good running conditions).

This race has some similarities to the girl's race ... Runners from many top teams are clustered in the same speed rating ranges - meaning significant variations (large swings) are possible in the team scoring depending on how well individuals runners finish ... For example, the #5 through #11 teams above were switching places frequently during the simulations despite the 60 point spread in the final prediction ... one or two runners running well (or poorly) has a big impact on the scoring with this many runners.

Individual Race ... Ryan Sheridan (Walt Whitman) is the favorite to win - he has been running very impressively in recent weeks and is now a top contender to qualify for Footlockers next week at Van Cortlandt Park ... Kevin Tschirhart (Northport) is reportedly skipping the Federation race to concentrate on Footlockers ... North Rockland's John Martinez and Carlos Jamieson have run some top performances this season including some fast times at Bowdoin Park ... Dan Busby (New Paltz) has been exceptionally good all season long, including the second fastest time at States (only 6 seconds behind Ryan Sheridan) ... Section 2 runners Brian Rhodes-Devey (Guilderland), Steve Murdock (Saratoga) and Dan McManamon (Shenendehowa) are solid contenders along with Kevin McDermott (Chaminade).


 GIRLS Federation Championships 2004 ... ACTUAL Scores Added November 21, 2004

                                Predict                         Actual
      School           Sect      Score       School              Score
      ===============  ====      =====       ==================  =====
 1    Saratoga         02-AA       24        Saratoga               22
 2    Bay Shore        11-AA      147        Shenendehowa          142
 3    Bethlehem        02-AA      152        Bethlehem             145
 4    Hilton           05-AA      178        Bay Shore             148
 5    Shenendehowa     02-AA      179        Hilton                151
 6    CNS              03-AA      199        CNS                   166
 7    Columbia         02-AA      211        Ward Melville         231
 8    Suffern          01-AA      213        Suffern               234
 9    Ward Melville    11-AA      274        Honeoye FL            248
 10   Honeoye FL       05-B       306        Pearl River           284
 11   Warwick Valley   09-AA      310        East Aurora           301
 12   East Aurora      06-B       341        Columbia              347
 13   Queensbury       02-A       368        Warwick Valley        352
 14   Pearl River      01-B       387        Queensbury            402
 15   St. John Bapt    CHSAA      408        Beaver River          420
 16   Horace Greeley   01-A       432        St. John Bapt         462
 17   St. Anthonys     CHSAA      482        Horace Greeley        466
 18   Nardin Academy   CHSAA      490        Sacred Heart          478
 19   Sacred Heart     CHSAA      502        St. Anthony's         485
 20   Beaver River     03-D       505        Nardin Academy        509
 21   Kellenberg       CHSAA      578        Kellenberg            573
 22   St. Peters       CHSAA      601        Boys & Girls          619
 23   Boys & Girls     PSAL       621        Mckee/SI Tech         646
 24   Jamaica          PSAL       640        Jamaica               667
 25   Horace Mann      AIS        691        St. Peter's           706
 26   Dewitt Clinton   PSAL       702        Horace Mann           745
 27   McKee/SI Tech    PSAL       715        DeWitt Clinton        760

POST RACE Comments: ... Saratoga won easily as expected and placed all five scorers in the top ten overall finishers ... The race for 2nd place was very close with Shenendehowa edging-out Bethlehem, Bay Shore, Hilton and CNS - The race simulations indicated a real scramble for 2nd and that's exactly what happened (as noted in the pre-race analysis, Shenendehowa was finishing 2nd in a fair number of simulations) ... The simulated gap between Honeoye Falls and East Aurora materialized as projected (despite the close finish at the State Meet the week before) ... Pearl River scored much better than predicted (seasonal PRs by their top two runners) ... Beaver River also scored better than predicted (maybe Every NYPHSAA State Championship Team should get an automatic bid to Federations) ... Individual Race - Incredibly fast performances by many runners - Nicole Blood and Aislinn Ryan destroyed the course record with remarkable times ... Hannah Davidson (3rd) keeps improving (and is a serious contender for Footlockers) ... Nichole Lister (South Jefferson), one of several more Footlocker contenders, ran well as predicted ... The biggest surprise was the 5th-place finish by freshman Kristen Reese  (Carmel) - she's shown excellent ability in both track and XC, but this performance is a big PR ... The individual talent in NY is incredible.

Pre-Race Analysis ... This is one of the most confusing races I've ever simulated ... The only constant in the millions of races that were simulated is that Saratoga won every race - even when I programmed in a random occurrence where the top runner did not finish (for whatever reason) ... There are several reasons for the confusion:
(1) How to handle teams with injured runners? ... It's easier not knowing about injuries ... Both Hilton and CNS have injuries to significant runners (I don't know their exact status, but it might not make any difference if I did know) ... and now I've been told that one of the Bethlehem girls is out with an injury ... I try to simulate this by running race simulations with a combination of variables (the runner does not run, the runner runs poorly, the runner runs normally).
(2) Variability ... this race has huge variability that can cause big swings in team scoring ... Obviously the injury factor above can do that all by itself, but this race does it without any injury considerations! ... Variability starts with each individual - each runner performs over a range of speed (it is not an exact constant as the overall speed rating on the leaderboard might lead some people to believe ... it varies from race to race, and that's what all the race simulations are about).

The top teams in this race have many individual runners closely matched in terms of speed ... when variability is simulated in this race, many runners are rising or falling by typically 10 to 20 finishing positions from race to race and that really effects the team scoring.

Here are some specifics ... Shenendehowa (5th above) finished 2nd in a fair number race simulations as did Hilton and Bethlehem ... I was surprised that Honeoye Falls had a significant gap on East Aurora when they were so close at States (both race and merge) - part of the reason seems to be HFL's top runner is constantly finishing above the large pack of evenly-matched runners, and that really helps the team score in this quality race.

When Bay Shore runs well, they usually finish 2nd in the simulations (they did not run their best at States) ... But with possible NTN bids coming, this should be a great team race.

Individual Race ... Nicole Blood (Saratoga) versus Aislinn Ryan (Warwick) Round Four ... Nicole Blood has a two-to-one lead in races won this season ... Nicole just won States at Chenango Valley and previously won Manhattan (2.5 mile race) ... Aislinn won the Great American in late September ... Bowdoin Park is quite different from the Chenango Valley golf course, but I'm not certain which runner Bowdoin Park favors this year ( Nicole Blood has run very well at Bowdoin in the past) ... If I were the odds-maker for this race, Nicole Blood would be the favorite based on recent race results.

After Blood and Ryan, this race is loaded with outstanding individual talent ... Saratoga's Lindsey Ferguson, Hannah Davidson and Caitlin Lane will likely finish in the top ten (and Karyn Delay could be close) ... Nichole Lister (South Jefferson) blistered the VVS course at the Section 3 Championships (she was 7th at Federations last year and 9th at Footlocker NE) ... Laura Cummings (Bay Shore) is consistently good (she finished 4th at Footlocker Nationals two years ago)  ... Katie DiCamillo (Holy Trinity) has been easily winning the CHSAA races (to go along with an excellent 4th at the Manhattan Eastern States Championship) ... Brittany Sheffey (Bellport) was an impressive winner at States (Class A), but is not entered to run.