Speed Ratings - IAAF World XC Championship - Junior Women
... March 20, 2011 (Punta Umbria, Spain)

Results from: http://www.iaaf.org/WXC11/results/eventCode=4527/index.html

Several viewers asked me to speed rate the IAAF World XC Championship (Junior Women) IF possible.

The speed ratings below are an academic exercise at approximating the results of the World Junior 6K XC race to common high school 5K cross country speed ratings.

The ratings below are an approximation at best ... they have significant margins of error.

These ratings require some assumptions and general statistical fitting of various scenarios (and then making a "best guess" estimation) ...

To initiate the statistical fit, I applied profiles of the Girls Footlocker Finals from the last few years ... In this regard, I excluded all World Meet runners who finished ahead of Aisling Cuffe (who finished 17th) and profiled (compared) the next 40 runners to Footlocker Finals from the last few years ... The World Junior race was roughly 160 seconds slower than Footlockers ... After applying a scaling factor for 6K-to-5K, the resulting speed ratings are shown below.

Ailsing Cuffe (158.0) is a bit lower than her normal high school ratings (160-168), but I think she may have been somewhat tired after an all-out effort at Indoor Nationals (2nd fastest 2-mile ever), a flight to Spain, time-zone changes, etc. ... Molly Grabill (151) was fairly typical of her performances as was Katie Flood (157)...

Overall, the estimated speed ratings seem decent and in the right "ballpark".

  

Place   Athlete 1       Faith Chepngetich Kipyegon 2       Genet Yalew 3       Azemra Gebru 4       Waganesh Mekasha 5       Janeth Kisa 6       Nancy Chepkwemoi 7       Purity Cherotich Rionoripo 8       Emebet Anteneh 9       Brillian Jepkorir Kipkoech 10      Buze Diriba 11      Alem Mokonnin 12      Katsuki Suga 13      Tomoka Kimura 14      Mekdes Woldu 15      Emelia Gorecka 16      Naom Chepngeno Mitei 17      Aisling Cuffe 18      Nancy Cheptegei 19      Katie Flood 20      Phanice Chemutai 21      Celia Sullohern 22      Annabel Gummow 23      Yuriko Kosaki 24      Yohana Zemuy 25      Luula Berhane 26      Fikadu Tsegay 27      Risa Yokoe 28      Molly Grabill 29      Louise Small 30      Risa Shibuya 31      Fadwa Sidi Madane 32      Amela Terzic 33      Doreen Sande 34      Natsumi Yoshida 35      Amina Tahiri 36      Hadda Souadia 37      Kefilwe Galeitsiwe 38      Hanane Qallouj 39      Stella Chesang 40      Georgia Peel 41      Darine Benamer 42      Hayat Allaoui 43      Charo Inga 44      Khonzeni Gwegwa 45      Beth Carter 46      Priska Auf der Maur 47      Sylvia 48      Riham Senani 49      Aleli Aparicio 50      Letitia Saayman 51      Caroline Pfister 52      Vianney Villanueva 53      Zenobie Vangansbeke 54      Nabila Madoui 55      Carise Thompson 56      Caroline 57      Luz Mery Rojas 58      Thamani Tawanda 59      Anca Maria Bunea 60      Maria Bernard 61      Beatriz Caspar 62      Ciara Kary 63      Soukaina Atanane 64      Fiona Benson 65      Ruth Haynes 66      Jovana de la Cruz 67      María José Pérez 68      Marion Guillemin 69      Justyna Jendro 70      Liteboho Makhatseane 71      Nina Savina 72      Emily Driedger 73      Thandeka Emily Manzana 74      Nabila Chaib Draa 75      Loubna Zeroukhi 76      Blanca Fernández 77      Rafika Abdennebi 78      Ahlam Zinadi 79      Hallouma Jerfel 80      Julie Nacouzi 81      Selma Kaddachi 82      Letizia Titon 83      Hannah Valenzuela 84      Sara Ruiz 85      Patricia Cueto 86      Thato Makhafola 87      Irene Sánchez 88      Nesrine Ben Khemissa 89      Rasha Ayoub 90      Nour Sioud

Approximated Country Time Difference Speed Rating KEN 18:53 +0:00 182.6 183 ETH 18:54 +0:01 182.3 182 ETH 18:54 +0:01 182.3 182 ETH 18:59 +0:06 180.8 181 KEN 19:08 +0:15 178.1 178 KEN 19:20 +0:27 174.5 174 KEN 19:24 +0:31 173.3 173 ETH 19:29 +0:36 171.8 172 KEN 19:33 +0:40 170.6 171 ETH 19:34 +0:41 170.3 170 ETH 19:39 +0:46 168.8 169 JPN 19:49 +0:56 165.8 166 JPN 19:56 +1:03 163.7 164 ERI 19:59 +1:06 162.8 163 GBR 20:03 +1:10 161.6 162 KEN 20:07 +1:14 160.4 160 USA 20:15 +1:22 158.0 158 *** UGA 20:17 +1:24 157.4 157 USA 20:18 +1:25 157.1 157 *** UGA 20:19 +1:26 156.8 157 AUS 20:20 +1:27 156.5 156 GBR 20:20 +1:27 156.5 156 JPN 20:23 +1:30 155.6 156 ERI 20:24 +1:31 155.3 155 ERI 20:29 +1:36 153.8 154 ERI 20:31 +1:38 153.2 153 JPN 20:31 +1:38 153.2 153 USA 20:40 +1:47 150.5 151 *** GBR 20:41 +1:48 150.2 150 JPN 20:48 +1:55 148.1 148 MAR 20:56 +2:03 145.7 146 SRB 20:56 +2:03 145.7 146 UGA 20:58 +2:05 145.1 145 JPN 21:00 +2:07 144.5 145 MAR 21:08 +2:15 142.1 142 ALG 21:11 +2:18 141.2 141 BOT 21:11 +2:18 141.2 141 MAR 21:14 +2:21 140.3 140 UGA 21:16 +2:23 139.7 140 GBR 21:21 +2:28 138.2 138 ALG 21:24 +2:31 137.3 137 MAR 21:25 +2:32 137.0 137 PER 21:28 +2:35 136.1 136 RSA 21:29 +2:36 135.8 136 GBR 21:34 +2:41 134.3 134 SUI 21:37 +2:44 133.4 133 Kedireng Tshetlanyana RSA 21:39 +2:46 132.8 133 ALG 21:40 +2:47 132.5 133 PER 21:41 +2:48 132.2 132 RSA 21:42 +2:49 131.9 132 CAN 21:43 +2:50 131.6 132 MEX 21:49 +2:56 129.8 130 BEL 21:50 +2:57 129.5 129 ALG 21:53 +3:00 128.6 129 CAN 21:54 +3:01 128.3 128 Thilivhali Marandela RSA 21:56 +3:03 127.7 128 PER 21:56 +3:03 127.7 128 BOT 21:58 +3:05 127.1 127 ROU 21:58 +3:05 127.1 127 CAN 22:00 +3:07 126.5 127 ESP 22:01 +3:08 126.2 126 CAN 22:02 +3:09 125.9 126 MAR 22:06 +3:13 124.7 125 CAN 22:07 +3:14 124.4 124 GBR 22:08 +3:15 124.1 124 PER 22:09 +3:16 123.8 124 ESP 22:10 +3:17 123.5 124 FRA 22:12 +3:19 122.9 123 POL 22:14 +3:21 122.3 122 LES 22:15 +3:22 122.0 122 BLR 22:16 +3:23 121.7 122 CAN 22:17 +3:24 121.4 121 RSA 22:23 +3:30 119.6 120 ALG 22:23 +3:30 119.6 120 ALG 22:23 +3:30 119.6 120 ESP 22:36 +3:43 115.7 116 TUN 22:40 +3:47 114.5 115 MAR 22:41 +3:48 114.2 114 TUN 22:45 +3:52 113.0 113 USA 22:46 +3:53 112.7 113 TUN 22:53 +4:00 110.6 111 ITA 22:59 +4:06 108.8 109 USA 23:04 +4:11 107.3 107 ESP 23:11 +4:18 105.2 105 ESP 23:26 +4:33 100.7 101 RSA 23:32 +4:39 98.9 99 ESP 23:54 +5:01 92.3 92 TUN 24:20 +5:27 84.5 84 JOR 24:59 +6:06 72.8 73 TUN 26:11 +7:18 51.2 51